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INDU ewaves
INDU shows a clear 3 segment corrective wave (zigzag) off last Wednesday's low. So much for a bullish coil pattern. This correction has not reached the 33% fibonacci level, nor has it spent much time correcting. More choppy sideway trading into next week followed by a second zigzag would result in a better price and time proportion to the selloff from the May highs.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=indu&time=18&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=5%2F30%2F2012&freq=9&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9&x=0&y=0
http://charts.insidestocks.com/chart.asp?sym=$INdu&data=Z60&date=051406&den=HIGH&divd=Y&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=Y&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=&argd=&arge=&argf=&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
Yields on US 10 yr Bonds
The yield has been moving lower in a choppy fashion since late April 2012. I've got an ending diagonal count that is in wave 5. Yields are set to bottom over the next week. The yield rally should be quick as happened in mid March 2012.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TNX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p21001336297
SPX Intraday Triangle Breakout
The pattern I was watching last week was triangle looking; however, I was not calling it an e-wave triangle. With this morning's rally, I have a pretty clear wave count from last Monday's lows.
Wave 2 corrective double zigzag.
wave a: Double zigzag from last Monday into Tuesday morning high.
wave b: Triangle from Tuesday high into Friday low.
wave c: in progress.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=spx&time=&freq=
SPX near "Triangle" point
Over the past several days the SPX has been trading within a converging range. I use the term "triangle" not as an e-wave, but as a simple description of the price pattern. The price is near the convergence point of the upper and lower edges. A breakout in either direction is about to take place. Buy both puts and calls.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=spx&time=&freq=
Corrective Rally Under Way
I expect the INDU and SPX to tag their 20 day avgs, and maybe their 50 day avgs before the the next major leg down occurs.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p75635173805
SPX Wave update
It looks like a motive wave which started in late April-early completed late this morning. Its subwave 5 may have truncated. The rally this afternoon so far is motive, but wave 4 has not started. This is looking like the beginnings of a multiweek corrective bounce.
http://charts.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=$INX&data=Z60&date=051406&den=HIGH&divd=Y&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=Y&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=&argd=&arge=&argf=&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=spx&time=&freq=
SPX zigzag complete
Since this zigzag was so strong relative to the wave 2 flat I was pairing it with, the zigzag is most likely another, smaller degree, wave 2. More sideways to downside the rest of the week.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Index&symb=spx&time=3&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=5%2F22%2F2012&freq=9&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9&x=56&y=5
SPX Intraday Rally wave 4
The upper trend line from the last 5 days has been broken. I'm looking for a zigzag or triangle to complement the wave 2 flat. So a near term bottoming process of wave 4-5 of a couple degrees should develop through the week.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=spx&time=&freq=
Chuck, Ewave rules support your view.
Another interpretation of the Ewaves is the selloff over the last 3-4 weeks is a corrective zigzag. If the SPX drops another 10 points then zig = zag, a good turning point.
SPX - More Wave 1-2 formations
From Yesterday's opening to present, it looks like another smaller degree wave 1 down, followed by wave 2 flat. There are many degrees of wave 1-2 combinations that have formed. Many of the wave 2's are flats, which indicate a very large wave 3 selloff is ahead.
http://charts.insidestocks.com/chart.asp?sym=ESM2&data=Z10&date=051406&den=HIGH&divd=Y&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=Y&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=&argd=&arge=&argf=&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
SPX 2-day Flat. Gap Down Tomorrow.
The markets are entering wave 3 of 3 or 3 area. A gap down at the open is highly likely tomorrow.
SPX e-wave
Yesterday and today look like a flat correction. I'm surprised a larger multiday correction has not happened yet. Maybe this choppy drift lower is the finishing touch of a 6 week flat, and wave c is an ending diagonal.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=spx&time=&freq=
SPX Mini vs Open Market
The SPX Minis look like they are still completing wave c of a flat. wave c is an ending diagonal.
The open market is also completing wave c of a flat. wave c is motive; however, wave 5 of c is an ending diagonal.
The markets should make a sharp, but unsustainable, rally to 6 months highs.
http://charts.insidestocks.com/chart.asp?sym=esm2&data=Z60&date=051406&den=HIGH&divd=Y&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=Y&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=&argd=&arge=&argf=&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
SPX E-minis Down 9 pts
This is not looking good at all. The wave count now heavily favors a 2-4% drop as multiple degrees of wave 3's unfold.
At best, a triangle has formed over the last 3 days, and this is past of a multiweek consolidation before another rally.
http://charts.insidestocks.com/chart.asp?sym=esm2&data=Z60&date=051406&den=HIGH&divd=Y&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=Y&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=&argd=&arge=&argf=&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
But e-minis say otherwise
SPX June 2012 e-minis are showing multiple degrees of waves 1-2. The lastest wave 2 looks like a flat, which is signalling a huge plunge.
http://charts.insidestocks.com/chart.asp?sym=ESM2&data=Z60&date=051406&den=HIGH&divd=Y&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=Y&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=&argd=&arge=&argf=&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
SPX INDU More Upside
The larger picture is a flat corrective which started in early April 2012 and ended today. A flat explains why the INDU made a short term high last week, but the SPX did not. One more advance to challenge the SPX April high and INDU May high before THE top is in.
http://www.safehaven.com/article/25352/daily-analysis
SPX Starting to find a bottom.
Buy when price climbs back above 1355 for a fast 20+ point ride.
SPX Ready to Rally
Since last Tuesday's high, 5 waves down are nearly complete. Cover shorts. When the price gets into the 1365- 1370 area go long with a target of 1380 to 1390.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=spx&time=&freq=
More SPX Downside
Last night SPX futures traded down 10-15 points after the French and Greek election results were announced. This was a continuation of wave 3,3,3. The bounce off of last night's lows is a wave 4. There are still a couple more degrees of waves 4 and 5 to the downside to go until a safe entry to go long occurs.
SPX E-Wave Idea
The SPX has not climbed above the March/April 2012 highs; however, the INDU has. What I'm considering is mid March to Mid-April was a corrective flat. The rallies off the April lows in both markets look like 4 zigzgs. Maybe the rally is an ending diagonal in the SPX, but a motive wave in the INDU?
The RSI is still a negative divergence over the last 2 months. that's quite a long time for a divergence, signalling the top is significant.
http://charts.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=$inx&data=Z60&date=042207&den=HIGH&divd=n&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=N&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=&argd=&arge=&argf=&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
More SPX Downside
The drop from Tuesday's high was impulsive. Yesterday's rally was choppy, a corrective move. Today the index broke below yesterday's lower trendline. This means the price should continue to drop below yesterday's lows.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=spx&time=&freq=
SPX Futures a Little Lower, Hang On!
The SPX futures made a motive move from April 23. On April 26, wave 5 began an ending diagonal. Early this morning the ending diagonal topped out. Although the selling appears weak, it's about to fall below the lower channel line.
Minimum downside target: 1384, a fibonacci 1/3 retracement of the weeklong rally.
http://charts.insidestocks.com/chart.asp?sym=esm2&data=Z60&date=051406&den=HIGH&divd=Y&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=Y&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=&argd=&arge=&argf=&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
SPX At A Critical Point
Bullish Count:
April 2nd high to April 22nd low - corrective wave
April 22 Low to present - motive wave
Forecast: Expect some consolidation to the downside the next couple of days before another advance.
Bearish Count:
April 2nd high to April 10th low - motive wave
April 10th Low to present - a completed ABC Flat correctione
Forecast: Expect a heavy selling the next couple of days.
Either count shows downside potential the next few days.
http://charts.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=$INX&data=Z60&date=051406&den=HIGH&divd=Y&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=Y&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=&argd=&arge=&argf=&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
AME TOPPED OUT!!!
The top is in. After a Wave 4 flat formation from February 2012 to early April 2012, Wave 5 was a truncating ending diagonal. Today's sudden drop, retracing nearly half of Wave 5 tilts the odds heavily in favor of a top.
Also supporting a long term top are the RSI and Stochastics making lower highs as the stock made higher highs, a divergence.
SHORT LIKE MAD!
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AME&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p47714664763
SPX Futures down 15 points - Look for a Bottom
Over the past 10 days the futures have traced out a triangle (Wave B). From last night's top, one more litte drop to the 1350 to 1355 area would complete a motive wave (Wave C). Look for a motive wave that breaks the upper channel of Wave C to go long.
http://charts.insidestocks.com/chart.asp?sym=esm2&data=Z60&date=051406&den=HIGH&divd=Y&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=Y&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=&argd=&arge=&argf=&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
Bombay Stock Exchange E-waves
From late 2010 high into late 2011 lows there was a very large triangle or complex correction. My prefered count is "complex correction" because the trendlines do not converge. This leaves one more corrective rally.
The larger corrective rally so far has broken down into 2 of 3 sub waves. From late 2011 low to the February 2012 high is pretty motive. From February 2012 high to April 2012 low is definitely a triangle. This means one more motive rally is to take place. It should be a sharp 10%+ gain. I do not know if the late 2010 high will be eclipsed, which would be an even greater gain.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BSE&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p13145169614
SPX intraday wave count
From this monday's top I count 2 motive waves down. the first on Monday, and the second today. Today's drop was stronger than Monday's, so I'm giving it wave 3. Wave 4 started off the bottom today, and needs more time to finish. Wave 5 should be active tomorrow, maybe even end for a quick long trade.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=spx&time=&freq=
INDU Looks Corrective Today
After my earlier post near the low of the day, the rally unfolded in a zigzag. A challenge to the March 2012 highs is now reduced.
Bullish e-wave count: the rally off this morning's low is the beginning of a wave 1 of a larger wave 5 ending diagonal.
Bearish e-wave count: the rally off this morning's low is a double zigzag. More downside early next week.
INDU - Another Motive Rally to Go?
From the March 27, 2012 high, it looks like the INDU has traced out a wave 4 FLAT. This morning completes wave C, which is motive. I'm looking for at least one degree of wave 5 rally to challenge the March 2012 highs.
http://charts.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=$INX&data=Z60&date=051406&den=HIGH&divd=Y&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=Y&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=&argd=&arge=&argf=&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
SPX and INDU Ending diagonal?
Maybe in wave 4. Wave 1 looks motive, so I am not completely sure.
http://charts.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=$INX&data=Z60&date=051406&den=HIGH&divd=Y&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=Y&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=&argd=&arge=&argf=&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
Ready, AME, Fire!
Take a look at the chart for AME for February and March 2012. At first I was counting a triangle from the February high. When wave d ended higher ($48.99) than wave b made (48.98), it forced a recount. I propose the wave off the March 2012 low is an ending diagonal now in wave e. That means a longer term top is almost in.
The RSI has been making lower highs as AME has been making high highs, a divergence warning a turn is about to take place.
MACD is falling during the choppy price increase, another sign of decreasing strength and a turn lower.
The price has been riding the 50 day avg up and bouncing up from it. This is weakness.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AME&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p64782698489
GS Ending diagonal lower trendline broken
The October 2011 rally is over.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GS&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p95007513194
SPX triangle morphed into double zigzag
there is still a chance the double zigzag will result as a triangle of a longer duration. The move is still corrective and today's highs should be challenged in the future.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=spx&time=&freq=
SPX Intraday e-wave
This morning the opening rise has given way to a nearly completed triangle. A 4+ point rally should start any moment.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Index&symb=spx&time=2&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=3%2F27%2F2012&freq=9&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9&x=22&y=19
GS E-waves
Since early October 2011 GS has been making a 3 segment corrective rally.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GS&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p65564885117
Wave A October 2011 low to October 2011 hi.
Wave B October 2011 hi to late December 2011, triangle.
Wave C Currently in progress. Wave a was motive. Wave b was a flat. Wave c an ending diagonal in wave 4.
http://charts.insidestocks.com/chart.asp?sym=gs&data=Z60&date=051406&den=HIGH&divd=Y&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=Y&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=&argd=&arge=&argf=&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
Other technicals are supporting the e-wave count.
RSI is declining as the price makes a choppy rally. Divergence
Stochastics are overbought.
MACD is about to trigger a sell.
FED and Institutionals Buying
Fund managers have very little cash on hand, so there is no gas in the tank to propel markets higher. The fundamentals of accelerating numbers of people retiring or being forced to liquidate 401k's to survive, is long term selling pressure on the market. This is a top of epic proportions that will take longer to roll over.
BAC Intraday E-Waves
Since last Tuesday BAC has benn rallying. The pullbacks have not overlapped, so I'm counting a 5 segment motive wave. Yesterday showed a clear wave 4 triangle, singalling today's rally will be some kind of near term top. Play to the downside.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=bac&time=18&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=3%2F15%2F2012&freq=9&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9&x=0&y=0
Investors Intelligence Chart
This week the bullishness declined against a market rally. The decline in bullishness started a month ago. The February 2012 bullish top was slightly lower than the March 2011 top. The market is trading above the April 2011 top, a divergence. That's not to say all the bulls are turning into bears. Bearishness has been relatively unchanged as it has spent the last month finding a bottom.
There is no fear, but there is declining interest to be in the market. Declining bullishness has led or been coincidental to larger market selloffs. I think one is directly ahead.
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/market_tools/investors_intelligence.aspx
Lexus- Oil
You will have to change your screen name to Hyundai if oil keeps going up. ;)
More seriously though,
MISH blogged within the past month that petroleum usage has fallen by more than 10% in the US since the 2007 top. The decline is in Wave 3-3-3. Yes, speculators are part of the problem; however, historically low central bank interest rates and money printing are the first steps in the chain of higher oil prices.
TNX Yield Spikes to 200 Day Avg
The Yield on the 10 yr US Bond spike sharply the last 2 days to the 200 day moving avg. For a couple months the yield has been in a range of sideways choppy trading. Thereare now fewer E-wave counts to consider.
The first one is long term (multi year) yield bullish:
WAVE 1. From September 2011 low to October 2011 high.
WAVE 2. From October 2011 high to January 2012 low, complex corrective wave.
WAVE 3. From January 2012 low to present. A series of waves 1-2 of multiple degree. I think with 2 days of gapping up, a 3-3 situation is underway. April/May 2012 waves 4 and 5 to form a near term top.
WAVES 4 and 5. These unfold over the summer.
The second one is short term yield bullish, long term bearish:
WAVES 1,2,3 of long term yield bullish are viewed as WAVES A, B, C of a larger yield corrective rally into the summer before yields start to fall.
In August and September 2011 the RSI had a divergence. It made a higher low as the yield made a lower low, signalling a trend reversal ahead. There are no divergences at this point.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TNX&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p70274806727