Short Term Trading Member Forum

[techcharter]

TNX Yield Spikes to 200 Day Avg

The Yield on the 10 yr US Bond spike sharply the last 2 days to the 200 day moving avg. For a couple months the yield has been in a range of sideways choppy trading. Thereare now fewer E-wave counts to consider.

The first one is long term (multi year) yield bullish:

WAVE 1. From September 2011 low to October 2011 high.
WAVE 2. From October 2011 high to January 2012 low, complex corrective wave.
WAVE 3. From January 2012 low to present. A series of waves 1-2 of multiple degree. I think with 2 days of gapping up, a 3-3 situation is underway. April/May 2012 waves 4 and 5 to form a near term top.
WAVES 4 and 5. These unfold over the summer.

The second one is short term yield bullish, long term bearish:

WAVES 1,2,3 of long term yield bullish are viewed as WAVES A, B, C of a larger yield corrective rally into the summer before yields start to fall.

In August and September 2011 the RSI had a divergence. It made a higher low as the yield made a lower low, signalling a trend reversal ahead. There are no divergences at this point.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TNX&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p70274806727