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BLISSBULL, I'm Thinking UP Too. However...
I think the spx has been working on a wave 2 flat in both the open market and futures the last 2-3 days. wave c should take the SPX to the 1440 area.
While we agree the on the short term direction, my longer term wave count is looking for wave structure confirmation the top is in, and a multi-month bear market has started.
Open market chart
http://charts.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=$INX&data=Z60&date=051406&den=HIGH&divd=Y&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=Y&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=&argd=&arge=&argf=&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
Futures Chart
http://charts.insidestocks.com/chart.asp?sym=esz2&data=Z60&date=051406&den=HIGH&divd=Y&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=Y&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=&argd=&arge=&argf=&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
SPX Futures Show complete motive wave.
And the bounce is has nearly retraced wave 5. This is the short term bottom I'm looking for.
http://charts.insidestocks.com/chart.asp?sym=esz2&data=Z60&date=051406&den=HIGH&divd=Y&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=Y&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=&argd=&arge=&argf=&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
SPX Bounced, but...
The bounce off the opening low was definitely corrective. The lower low in the SPX this hour is motive. Instead of a zigzag or double zigzag, the only other corrective could can be a wave 2 flat. I don't give it a high probability because the zigag off this morning's lows was disproportionately short lived in time and price.
Reconsidering the wave 4 triangle as another smaller degree wave 2 might be more accurate.
SPX 5 waves down.
Since Friday's top, a clear motive wave has developed. Wave 4 was a triangle. Lock in profits by covering shorts. The probability of going long for a quick trade (10 pts) is pretty good. Complete structural confirmation will occur with the price rising above 1447 or a 3 wave move off the low. I expect choppy sideways to upward trading (corrective wave) the next 3-5 days.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Index&symb=spx&time=3&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=10%2F10%2F2012&freq=9&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9&x=40&y=12
Sorry Foxridge,
I don't annotate charts, just reference them. I try to provide time,price coordinates for individuals to draw the patterns themselves. People learn better when they participate in an activity. Think of it as an investment lab.
SPX Intraday Set-up
Since Friday's high, there have been 3 selloffs and 2 bounces (typical motive wave). The second bounce was today, and looks like a wave 4 triangle. If the price breaks above 1446, chances of a larger wave 2 (or wave b) bounce is forming.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=spx&time=&freq=
SPX e-waves
From Friday morning's top, it looks like a motive wave has completed. After the bounce, there will be at least one more selloff.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=spx&time=&freq=
SPX Intraday Pattern
I think the pattern that has finally emerged on the SPX intradsy chart is a complex correction. The clues are as follows:
1.) Very choppy advance
2.) A well-defined triangle on Monday and Tuesday of this week.
Wave w from Sept 26 lows to Oct 1 high was a double zigzag
Wave x from Oct 1 high to Oct 2 low was a textbook triangle.
Wave y from Oct 2 low to present is a single or double zigzag.
This correction has a nice "envelope" like amplitude modulation instead of parallel or converging trendlines.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=spx&time=&freq=
WMT Special Technical Situation
There is a 3.5 month negative divergence between the RSI and the price. The RSI has been making lower highs despite higher highs in prices. The price is rolling over on the support of the 50 day avg. Volume is declining. A longer term top is being made. I'm looking at a wave 4 triangle since the Sept 2012 highs. It may have completed, and the last surge (only about $1) to a new high may be in progress.
If long, get out.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=WMT&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p26895229219
SPX Futures In a Corner.
The SPX futures are at the tip of converging trendlines from over the last 20-30 days. I think a big move is about to happen.
http://charts.insidestocks.com/chart.asp?sym=esz2&data=Z60&date=051406&den=HIGH&divd=Y&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=Y&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=&argd=&arge=&argf=&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
SPX At Lower Trendline Support
The SPX is at support not just from a trendline formed by the lows since last Wednesday, but also from major lows since early June 2012. Over the last 2 weeks, the SPX daily highs have formed a downward sloping line. The short term channel lines are converging, so a breakout move should occur in the day or so.
The upside target would be 1480, made by the upper channel line from the June 2012 lows. The dowwnside target short term would be 1413 (50 day avg) or 1361 (200 day avg and 50% fibonacci retracement).
Go for straddle options.
Intraday
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=spx&time=&freq=
Daily
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p13865599702
SPX Pop-n-Drop-Alert
The intraday chart shows a triangle from Wednesday's afternoon high into the close This morning's pop would complete the zigzag. The price should retest yesterday's lows, a 10 point drop from here.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=spx&time=&freq=
Greece E-waves
The rally off the June 2012 lows is complete, or nearly so. The corrective bounce was very close to a fibonacci 78% gain (1-8/34).
The wave pattern looks like a zigzag. The zag is either in wave 4 flat, or wave 5 was an ending diagonal and the next larger degree of downtrend has begun.
The RSI and Stochastics show negative divergences and are rolling over. The MACD is also rolling over. The price is falling from the upper bollinger band. All of these are indications of a top.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$ATG&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p46283080829
SPX Intraday E-Waves
Over the last 8 days, the SPX looks to be in a triangle. Wave 4 of the triangle, itself a triangle, is near completion. The channel lines are converging.
If the triangle pattern is correct, the 1452 level should hold, followed by a pop to the 1474 area.
If the price falls below the lower edge (1452) of the supposed triangle, the pattern may be a double zigzag instead. The only conclusive way to determine if a new downtrend has begun is to wait for the price to 1432 level, where the latest FED rally began.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=spx&time=&freq=
ORCL
From the 2011 high to the 2012 June-ish low ORCL formed a textbook triangle. Triangles are found in wave 4 and wave b positions, which are the last consolidation before the last wave of the larger trend takes place. Often the wave following a triangle retraces it very quickly and stops about where the triangle started.
In ORCL's case, the rally after the triangle (June-ish 2012 lows to present) may not rally past the start of the triangle. This is called truncation. The rally is arching over in weakness. If you are long ORCL, GET OUT IMMEDIATELY. Upside is severly limited, and the trend reversal following truncation is even sharper than a post triangle move. The initial downside target is $26.
The intraday chart shows 5 waves complete since Tuesday, and on above average volume. This is initial confirmation the long term top is in place.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=orcl&time=18&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=9%2F20%2F2012&freq=9&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9&x=0&y=0
The daily chart shows the price has not broken the lower trendline since the rally began May-June. Touching the 50 day average or lower bollinger band will be a stronger confirmation of a long term trend reversal.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ORCL&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p77709216059
The long term chart shows the triangle. The long term downtrend will be completely confirmed by e-wave theory when the price drops below $25.50. The long term target will be $12-$16.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Stock&symb=orcl&time=13&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=9%2F20%2F2012&freq=2&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9&x=63&y=16
VIX is in the Zone
When the VIX gets to the 13-14 range, as it presently is, the market is about to roll over.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p67828883355
CitiBank Trigger
The high confidence trigger would be a move below $29, which would be the retracement of the motive wave that started in early September. This confirms the move from early June 2012 as the second zigzag.
SPX Intraday Triangle E-Wave
This morning's trading has been choppy, sideways and converging. A larger price move (5-10 pts)is about to take place.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Index&symb=spx&time=2&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=9%2F17%2F2012&freq=9&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9&x=23&y=15
Corn is Rolling Over.
E-wave wise, it got to be a lot of wave 1-2 of multiple degrees building up. A near term wave 3 of 3 is starting.
Bollinger bands have opened up gently and the price is hugging the lower band.
The price has gone below the 50 day moving avg.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CORN&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p68953257929
Near Term CitiBank E-wave
Since October 2011 C has been in a WXY corrective move. W and X are complete. Wave Y breaks down as follows:
Wave Y started at the June 2012 low C. It's a double zigzag.
The first zigzag was the first 2 weeks of June 2012
The intermediate wave ended at the July 2012 lows.
The second zigzag is very close to a top.
Exit long positions and get ready to short. Target below $20 at a minimum.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=C&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p10669606808
Comments on SPX Mid Term
I've been redirected from the Short Term Trading board since I primarily use E-waves.
I have as one possible count from the 2009 low labeled the same as yours (1,2,3,4,5,). I consider this an ending diagonal of a multi-decade advance. The trendline from wave 1 and 3 tops gives a good target for wave 5. We differ slightly on the interpretation of the price advancing above the upper trendline. Where you see it as bullish, I see it as an overthrow that does not change the bigger picture.
Another possible count from the 2009 low is to replace 1-5 with a,b,c,d,e and call it WAVE B triangle, which implies 2007 was THE top and the second leg of the bear market is about to begin.
Either count conveys the same message: Short term (days to 2 weeks) markts are topping, and long term markets are heading lower in a trend that lasts more than a year.
SPX Futures Ending Diagonal Churns Higher
The primary count of an ending diagonal pattern has not changed, only the count within the structure. It's in wave 5.
http://charts.insidestocks.com/chart.asp?sym=ESZ2&data=Z30&date=051406&den=HIGH&divd=Y&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=Y&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=&argd=&arge=&argf=&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
SPX Futures Hourly E-waves
From Monday overnight lows to present, the SPX futures look like an ending diagonal in wave 4. Bunch of 3 wave overlapping, advances and pullbacks. A pullback should start today.
http://charts.insidestocks.com/chart.asp?sym=ESZ2&data=Z15&date=051406&den=HIGH&divd=Y&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=Y&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=&argd=&arge=&argf=&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
AND for a Second SPX E-Wave Opinion...
The 2008 crash looks motive. Since the 2009 low, I think the SPX has been in a complex corrective rally.
Wave W: From March 2009 low to April 2011 high. 3-segment corrective wave
Wave X: From April 2011 high to October 2011 low. Double zigzag corrective wave.
Wave Y: From October 2011 low to present. 3-segment corrective wave. Wave Y is 50% price move of Wave W and getting close to 50% time of Wave W.
1st Alt count: Double zigzag (Bearish)
Wave A: From March 2009 low to April 2010 high. 5-segment motive.
Wave B: From April 2010 high to June 2010 low.
Wave C: From June 2010 low to present. 5-segment ending diagonal.
2nd Alt count: Ending Diagonal (Bullish) Implies the 2008 crash was wave c of a flat that started with the DotCom Bubble in 2000.
Wave 1: From March 2009 low to April 2011 high.
Wave 2: From April 2011 high to October 2011 low.
Wave 3: From October 2011 low to present.
Wave 4: About to begin.
Wave 5: Takes place in 2013
Regardless of bullish or bearish stance, all counts point to some sort of multiweek decline to begin immediately.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p20801065631
"Falling Wedge"
I took the time to read the examples at the link provided. From an E-wave point of view, the examples of falling wedges have different meanings.
An e-wave triangle means larger degree trend continuation as wave 4 in a bull market, or as wave b in a zigzag bounce.
An e-wave ending diagonal means larger degree trend reversal as wave 5 in a bear market, as wave c in a zigzag pullback, or wave c flat in a bull market correction.
Knowing the different e-wave meanings for wedge patterns helps traders to anticipate the market direction, timing, and strength.
Continuation Alright. E-wave comments
The chart Bliss posted shows a triangle. E-wave theory indicates traiangles are the last correction of the larger degree, AND post triangle market behavior is ususally a thrust to the beginning of the triangle wave a. Today's pop certainly meets both those criteria.
If you zoom in to the apex of Bliss' chart you will see after wave e on Tuesday morning there was an advance followed by a pullback. The pullback (ending at yesterday's close) is also a triangle, which means today's pop should have very little follow-thru, and odd are high that the multimonth rally is over. A multi week correction is about to begin.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=spx&time=&freq=
TRAN Wreck E-waves
The long term pattern the Dow Transport charts show is a massive ending diagonal which started from lows in 2003.
Preferred Count
Wave 1: Early 2003 low to Mid 2007 high. double zigzag
Wave 2: Mid 2077 high to Early 2009 low. 3-3-5 Flat
Wave 3: Early 2009 low to Mid 2011 high. zigzag
Wave 4: Mid 2011 high to Mid 2012 Low. zigzag
Wave 5: Mid 2012 Low to August 2012 high. truncated double zigzag.
Alternate Count
Wave 4: Mid 2011 high to present. Nearly complete triangle.
Wave 5: Still to come, should be a very sharp move to the 5600 level.
Falling below 4800 would confirm the preferred count.
A sharp rise above the upper edge of the triangle would confirm the alternate count.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Index&symb=djta&time=20&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=8%2F30%2F2012&freq=2&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9&x=20&y=5
Bombay Stock Exchange E-Wave
The pattern that jumps out at first glance is a zigzag that started in December 2011.
December 2011 low to February 2012 high ZIG was 5 waves (motive).
February 2012 high to June 2012 low was 3 waves (corrective).
June 2012 low until present ZAG should be 5 waves (motive); however, the zag has had 4 overlapping sub waves which are zigzags. This is a huge signal that the zag is an ending diagonal. Wave 4 is still in progress, bottoming in about a week. I'm guessing wave 5 will top out around the beginning of October.
Also look at the RSI negative divergence as confirmation of the topping process. I'm looking for the RSI to be stronger at the end of wave 3 than at the end of wave 5.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BSE&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p23776160475
Penny Stock E-mail Indicator
This month I have received more penny stock e-mail spam than the previous 24 months combined. This certainly is not a record amount I've getting. I'm interpreting this as a market top in progress.
CORN Ending Diagonal
The wave off the middle July 2012 low is still in an ending diagonal. Wave 5 of the ending diagonal is nearly complete. 10% short term selloff coming. Look out below!
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CORN&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p02903159400
SPX Intraday E-wave
The rise off today's lows has been very choppy. I'm looking for a 5th wave, and this one might be an ending diagonal.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=spx&time=&freq=
WTIC - Crude Comments
Actually my e-wave count for oil is rated G for everyone.
The rally off the late May 2012 is a corrective double zigzag. A triangle separated zig from zag in late July 2012 to early August 2012.
The next move should start very shortly. Let's wait to see if the correction is complete, or more time is spent in a holding pattern.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p29655500596
CORN Short Term
Late July to Early August 2012 a triangle formed. I don't know what degree it represents (wave 4, or B), but it always occurs before the last wave of larger degree.
Relative Strength Indicator has formed a negative divergence with CORN over the last 4 weeks. This is a good indicator a top is forming, in this case at least a short term pullback.
Volume has also been drying up the last 4 weeks.
Stochastics have been overbought for several weeks and look to be heading lower.
Downside ahead.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CORN&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p96437114032
CORN Price Chart
We all know the US is in a catastrophic drought. The corn crop has wilted. Understandably, everyone expects the price to continue spiking. It took me less that 15 seconds to figure out the e-wave count for corn. Since 2006 it's been in an ending diagonal. The price is near the upper edge of the diagonal, and is set to CRASH 75%!!! Target is the 200 level.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/08/dimwit-energy-policies-record-corn.html
SPX Intraday Triangle
From Tuesday's mid day high to present is a triangle. Wave e in progress. Once the triangle ends, the next wave of larger degree should be a sharp move to the 1410 area. This move could occur after hours, so it is a high risk trade.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=spx&time=&freq=
VIX and Investor Intelligence
The vix is almost in the range where market tops are formed. Maybe a couple more days until the VIX reads a 14 or 13.
The Investor's Iintelligence Percent Bullish is not as strong as when the the OEX was topping earlier this year. This is a negative divergence.
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/market_tools/investors_intelligence.aspx
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p75594320351
That was one short Pop in the SPX
I can't even see it!
SPX Intraday Triangle
Monday this week to early this morning a triangle appeared on the SPX chart. A pop followed by drop is expected.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Index&symb=spx&time=3&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=8%2F1%2F2012&freq=9&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9&x=53&y=14
Clear E-wave in Spanish IBEX
A flat has been forming since early June 2012.
Wave a: Zigzag - Early June low to Early July high
Wave b: Zigzag - Early July high to Mid July Low
Wave c: Motive - Mid July Low to present in wave 3 of 5
Target: 7000 within 5 days.
A long position could face a 20% loss if not exited in time. Instead, don't go long. Wait for the end of Wave c, then short. Cover below 5700 when a motive wave has completed. Then go long for a 15-20% rally from a larger degree corrective move.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$IBEX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p84410658795
Posting Charts
I don't have an account on Stockcharts. I'll check out Imageshack.