Elliott Wave TRIGGERS and TARGETS

[techcharter]

ORCL

From the 2011 high to the 2012 June-ish low ORCL formed a textbook triangle. Triangles are found in wave 4 and wave b positions, which are the last consolidation before the last wave of the larger trend takes place. Often the wave following a triangle retraces it very quickly and stops about where the triangle started.

In ORCL's case, the rally after the triangle (June-ish 2012 lows to present) may not rally past the start of the triangle. This is called truncation. The rally is arching over in weakness. If you are long ORCL, GET OUT IMMEDIATELY. Upside is severly limited, and the trend reversal following truncation is even sharper than a post triangle move. The initial downside target is $26.

The intraday chart shows 5 waves complete since Tuesday, and on above average volume. This is initial confirmation the long term top is in place.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=orcl&time=18&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=9%2F20%2F2012&freq=9&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9&x=0&y=0

The daily chart shows the price has not broken the lower trendline since the rally began May-June. Touching the 50 day average or lower bollinger band will be a stronger confirmation of a long term trend reversal.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ORCL&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p77709216059

The long term chart shows the triangle. The long term downtrend will be completely confirmed by e-wave theory when the price drops below $25.50. The long term target will be $12-$16.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Stock&symb=orcl&time=13&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=9%2F20%2F2012&freq=2&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9&x=63&y=16