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Heading to $80? Good call.
If anyone thinks that Charlotte's Web will be a cheaper and effective alternative to Epidiolex, take a look at this:
http://www.legis.state.pa.us/cfdocs/legis/TR/transcripts/2015_0040_0001_TSTMNY.pdf
The company has made no announcement about the timing of its 2014 Full Year results. In 2013 it announced on 12th November that they would appear on 19th November but, as yet, there is no announcement about the year that ended on 30th September.
This is research funded by GWPH:
http://www.iflscience.com/health-and-medicine/how-cannabis-was-used-shrink-one-most-aggressive-brain-cancers
News flow and pretty much everything else is explained here:
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/AMDA-1TW341/3342892696x0x724794/0f41f04f-442e-4d2d-81c8-3d829b774eb4/GW_Pharma_-_presentation_for_website.pdf
There is no drop. Quite the opposite is true.
The data on the Nasdaq site shows the low figure but it's incorrectly based on the universe of the ordinary shares traded in London, of which there are 216 m, not the ADRs, of which there are 18 m. Multiply the low figure by 12 and you get the accurate figure.
Of the 15 institutions holding GWPH as listed on the first page of the Nasdaq data, 13 are described as either"new" investors or have increased their holding in the period.
The first batch of data on Epidiolex is only a few weeks away.
New data will bring a new round of notes from analysts.
Please note this quote from the most recent note from Piper Jaffray:
"However, we still assume launch of the drug in 2018. Depending on trial results, that could readily shift to 2016. If we simply fast-forward all our projections forward two years and decrease our discount rate to 10% under that scenario, our NPV approaches $135/share or higher."
On the basis of the news that the FDA has allowed GWP to carry out four phase III trials starting in early 2015, a launch date in 2016 is now perfectly possible. New price targets should reflect this development.
All you need to know about the prospects for GWPH.
You won't find a better written, better informed piece than this:
http://www.epvantage.com/Universal/View.aspx?type=Story&id=505528&isEPVantage=yes
"Two children have been on drug for more than one year
Two children in the US have been on Epidiolex for over one year and are being monitored by physicians. GW has provided some feedback stating that one patient has seen a 90% reduction in seizure frequency while the other is doing very well. The company started five small trials of around 25 patients each at various academic centers in the US in early 2014. Management expects to start to provide efficacy, safety and drug-drug interaction data from the first two of these trials (one from New York and one from San Francisco) by mid year."
Bank of America Merrill Lynch
What's interesting about this piece:
http://www.sfexaminer.com/sanfrancisco/ucsf-to-study-marijuana-based-drug-for-children/Content?oid=2695700
…..is that the unit in San Francisco has been using Epidiolex since last April and that the results were good enough to prompt the enlargement of the study to as many as 150 children.
150 at a single location? When summed together with other centres this could provide meaningful, clinical data.
No it's not.
The events that have the potential greatly to increase the value of GWP will play out over the next 18-months. There's no more waiting for another decade.
The process starts in the first half of next year with the ulcerative colitis trial and reports from the clinicians treating children with Epidiolex. Then it's the US cancer pain studies and then the phase II trials on childhood epilepsy (Dravet syndrome), glioma and type II diabetes.
We need two successes from the four clinical options (cancer pain, epilepsy, glioma & type II diabetes). Writing of more than two from four strikes me as hubristic.
My view is that ulcerative colitis is less important (unless you're suffering from it). Success with UC would be good but it seems to me that it's no longer a big priority for GWP as it's a trial of CBD (Epidiolex). Epidiolex for the orphan disease of Dravet syndrome could command a much higher price than might a new treatment for UC.
It was reported by Reuters but I have seen no further confirmation.
Canaccord Genuity raises price target for GWPH from $26 to $39.
Do you think we could persuade that dick Dan Naumov to write another piece for Seeking Alpha in which he warns investors to steer clear of GWPH? His last article has had a galvanising effect.
Today's news of a price agreement for Sativex with the authorities in Germany is very important for the European revenues of GWPH.
It may not resonate directly with investors in the US but for the company overall it is very positive. Germany is by far the largest European pharmaceutical market and the most generous in its support of patients with MS.
Thank you for your kind comments. I'm happy to try to answer any questions about gap/gwph.
As it stands, the market capitalisation is $207 million. Which is pretty small.
Thanks. Here's the answer.
GW Pharmaceuticals is a UK company and has only issued shares in the UK. I believe that what we in the UK call shares are known in the US as stocks. As a round number, there are 180 million outstanding shares in GWP. That would equate to 15 million ADRs. As I'll explain, the UK shares and the ADRs freely and daily convert from one to the other.
Earlier this year, the management of GWP decided that strategically it would be a good idea to have its equity traded on NASDAQ. Influential on this decision was probably a non-exec, Tom Lynch. Mr Lynch is an Irishman who took a small, inconsequential Irish micro-cap pharma from a quote in Dublin to a quote on the NASDAQ as Amarin (AMRN), making both himself and many investors a big pile of money. The investors relations man at GWP is Steve Schultz, who formerly carried out that role at Amarin.
In May this year, GWP got its shareholders to agree the issue of 40 million new shares. GWP appointed 4 US advisory companies, led by Lazards. The US advisors recommended that each ADR should comprise 12 shares in GWP. So the 40 million shares in GWP became 3.333 million ADRs. Of the 3.333 million ADRs, 20% were bought by UK institutions who wished to avoid being diluted. The remainder were all sold to US institutions at $8.90. The lead US investor was Venrock, which bought 837,800 ADRs.
Now I own shares in GWP and I have a share certificate. If someone buys 100 ADRs on NASDAQ, what in fact they own is a promissory note that says that the London branch of a US bank (JP Morgan, I believe) has 1200 shares of GWP held in your name.
If there were no ADRS held by anyone, the outstanding share total would be 180 million. If all those shares were packaged up into ADRs, there would be 15 million of them. Currently (obviously) we are somewhere in between. From the perspective of a US investors, I would consider the O/S to be 15 million.
Obviously, there must be some liquidity in GWPH on NASDAQ but when the US investor demand exceeds the liquidity (which it must have done in the run up from $8.90 to $17), JP Morgan has to buy UK shares on the UK market so that the ADRs it holds matches the obligations it has for the holders of ADRs. In that way there's an arbitrage between the underlying prices on both markets.
The hope that I share with some UK investors friends of mine is that as GWPH increasingly becomes a US business (as did Amarin), US investor demand will suck more and more of the shares traded in the UK into US-held ADRs.
Someone explain to me exactly what you mean by o/s and I'll tell you the answer? Do you mean the total number of shares/ADRs outstanding (i.e the issued share capital)?
I’m British and I was one of the first investors in GWPH. I took part in the first private offering in the company in 1999. The London IPO was on 28th June 2001.
I know a great deal about the company and I have contact several times each year with the senior management. I have great hopes for the company and success in the US will be the most vital part of the likelihood of GWPH attaining a very high market valuation. Such a valuation is perfectly possible.
If you ever have any questions that you feel I might be able to answer, please ask? I’ll give you the objective truth or my opinion. The distinction will be clear.
I remember reading in the late 90s that Warren Buffet viewed internet stocks as tickets in a lottery. Drug development companies are also tickets in a lottery.
Humans have an endocannabinoid system and it is the function of that system to maintain the healthy status quo. No other company in the world knows more about that system than GWPH.
When the human endocannabinoid system misfires then a multiplicity of diseases can develop.
At least if you invest in GWPH you have many tickets in the lottery.
One US success among the many candidates that GWPH has will make the company pretty valuable. Two such and you’re looking at a mid-cap pharma.
GWPH will very likely succeed in the US trials with the Sativex formulation for both the palliation of cancer pain and spasticity in MS. It has never yet failed to generate such data in its European trials.
And then there’s ulcerative colitis, type 2 diabetes, epilepsy, glioma and schizophrenia. All this latter group will be addressed by novel formulations, each formulation is different.
You may ask why Sativex for MS spasticity has not yet been much of a success in Europe? Launching new drugs can be very difficult in Europe. Whilst the drug has been approved in the UK for some time, it has yet to be designated as having a part in the official protocol for the treatment of MS.
It has been approved in the largest European market but so far the German authorities have refused to accept to pay the same price that has been agreed in the UK, Italy, Spain and elsewhere. Several US drug companies have recently hit this same stumbling block in Germany. Given that Spain has such enormous economic problems, Sativex is doing OK in that country. In Italy, it has only just been launched. Other markets where it has been launched are very small.
If GWPH ever makes presentations to groups of investors, those presentations are available on the company’s website.