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I think this is the bottom as well. Problem is, not sure I want to tie up my fresh powder in FNMA for another X years waiting for it to recover.
I'll do my best ;)
I can't bring myself to sell. Yes, this sucks, but something in my gut tells me to just ride this out (like all the other times). I have this awful feeling that if I sell for a substantial loss right now, that I will regret it. After waiting for years, it would be my luck that I would sell, and then some good news would hit and the share price would triple in three days.
So, been waiting for almost 10 years, what's another few years at this point.
GLTA, and my justice prevail eventually.
Don't think so, and I realized that as soon as I posted that.
Call it temporary insanity ;)
And unfortunately my deposited funds haven't cleared yet....so I can't buy more today....
Surprised it didn't trip the circuit breaker.
Buy when others are fearful....as they say.
Doing a little research on this by looking at pre-crash data.
In the 2002/2003 timeframe, Fannie Mae had approx 1 billion outstanding shares. Their 2002 annual report claims $4.6 billion in net income. Using your P/E of 17, $4.6b / 1b = 4.6 x PE of 17 = PPS of 78.2. Well, in January of 2003, FNMA was trading in the mid $60's, and made its way to about $80 per share that year. So, that is on point.
Obviously history is no indication of future events, but...I see no reason the formula shouldn't apply once released from conservatorship and all the dust settles. It is, after all, a basic formula used by millions for years.
My target all along has been $80 per share. BUT, after looking back at the 2002/2003 numbers, perhaps my target should be more along the lines of $150 per share. Who knows. Maybe that is a pipe dream. Or....maybe not.
Just felt like sharing ;)
Nevermind. I finally found it. 11-5-2020
Lockup Period Expiration Date for BigC?
Thanks!
My God, this is like watching paint dry. Been holding for 6 or 7 years, and this is getting REALLY REALLY old...
Cumming, GA huh? Haha, me too. ;)
Good luck!
Those levels must be newer. What I posted was the original ranges, if it has been updated to include Platinum and/or Diamond, I don't know what those levels are.
50k shares and up - Gold, 20k shares and up - Silver, less than 20k - Bronze.
Detearing....is it time to update the Gold/Silver/Bronze list of FNMA share holders? LOL
I think its been a few years.
Quick follow up to my previous post....
Here's a review of the key figures from the fiscal fourth quarter:
Revenue jumped 23% to $318.3 million. This result was a hair shy of the $318.9 million that Wall Street had projected.
Net income soared to $18.3 million, or $0.18 per share. This figure crushed the $0.06 in EPS that market watchers were expecting.
Active clients increased 25% year over year to 2.7 million. For context, analysts were expecting the platform to have 2.81 million active clients.
Founder and CEO Katrina Lake also announced that Stitch Fix will launch in the United Kingdom by the end of fiscal 2019.
Zooming out to the full year, here's a look at Stitch Fix's key numbers from fiscal 2018:
Revenue grew 26% to $1.2 billion.
Net income was $44.9 million, or $0.34 per share. This compares with a net loss of $0.02 per share in fiscal 2017.
All of this, and the stock plummets 40% in 2 days. SMH.
What a ridiculous market over reaction. EPS increased 350%, and simply because sales missed the estimate by .1%, and the stock plummets approx 40%.
Whatever. I bought more in the $31 range this morning.
GLTA
Yeah, my wife never was a fan of the ole 'pump and dump'.
Speaking of the OTCBB, when FNMA stabilizes over $4, who then has the authority to request uplisting to the NYSE again? Normally it's obviously a board of directors, but...since FNMA is still (STILL!?!?) in conservatorship, does the FNMA board still have this authority? Or does it rest of the shoulders of FHFA, Treasury,...or some other body?
Just curious
Or...perhaps a glitch. Because now its gone.
Anyone see a $3.90 premarket trade go through? Thats what TD Ameritrade is telling me....
yeah, he's a piece of work for sure. He WANTS the GSE's to be in a position to have to take the draw, because that then lends credibility to his argument that the GSEs aren't sustainable. How could be possibly argue that a company without it's own capital buffer is a 'baseless argument'.
Unbelievable.
Yeah I was looking at this as well. Short interest recently is the lowest it has been all year, hoping that means good things are coming shortly (no pun intended).
GLTA
Lets hope
Jeez..short volume yesterday almost 40%. Thats alittle scary. Hope we get some good news soon.
I agree with the "this has happened 100s of times". Been holding and watching for years. Been through the dips many times. Just sucks to see all of the red, and wonder how long it will be before all my accounts are green again. I will happen, as it always does, but during the red days like these, I don't have much appetite.
Thus far this morning, the sell side has had many more large blocks than buy side. Thats what I have seen anyway.
Not happy
Massive blocks on the ask. This sucks.
Thank you Guido. That link does suggest that Trailing P/E would be the last 4 quarters, and thus one would use earnings per share over that same period (versus the information I read, suggesting using quarterly earnings).
So, if that's the case, I have updated the message from before:
FY2016 earnings: ~$12 bil
Shares outstanding: ~1.2 Bil
Earnings per share: 12,000,000,000 / 1,200,000,000 = $10 per share
(This doesn't account for preferred dividends, I have no idea what that total would be, but it would drop the earnings per share). Lets assume after preferred dividends the annual earnings per share is $8.00
Using the average P/E Ratio for the financials sector, mortgage industry of 20.5 (at least this is what I found today), that gives us a PPS of $8.00 x 20.5 = $164
That would make me very happy.
Thanks again
Yes, I did that math as well, and that obviously would make the number substantially higher. But, all research I have seen suggests that quarterly earnings are used for Earnings Per Share, not annual, when doing these calculations to determine "value".
Perhaps the research I have done doesn't provide the full picture on this. Or perhaps its all based on the answer you are looking to get. Or perhaps I have much more to learn ;)
Forgive me for belaboring a point that seems to be brought up on almost a daily basis here, but I can't help myself.
Lots of speculation on the potential value of FNMA shares when they are released from conservatorship, assuming warrants aren't executed. Many of the posts are crazy in my opinion regarding PPS of $150, $280, etc.
That said, using standard equations:
Q4 earnings: ~$5 bil
Shares outstanding: ~1.2 Bil
Earnings per share: 5,000,000,000 / 1,200,000,000 = $4.17 per share
(This doesn't account for preferred dividends, I have no idea what that total would be, but it would drop the earnings per share). Lets assume after preferred dividends the earnings per share is $3.17.
Using the average P/E Ratio for the financials sector, mortgage industry of 20.5 (at least this is what I found today), that gives us a PPS of $3.17 x 20.5 = $64.99
Someone earlier suggested that a PE Ratio of 12 puts the PPS over $125. Where is the math on this? I am by no means an expert, but I am fairly knowledgeable, and can do basic math. ;)
So, using these standard metrics, how does one come up with a PPS estimate of $125, or higher? (especially with a PE ratio of 12)
My best case scenario for exit point is $80, but again, using these metrics, I can't be certain it will ever get there. Perhaps $50-$60 is a more reasonable expectation.
I welcome constructive feedback.
FWIW: I am long FNMA, and have been since sub $1.
I would love to know what the other 4 stocks are in this article that are restricted to paid subscribers. Just out of curiosity.
Anyone?
Good article.
Well I don't know whats in store, but yes, looks like I pulled the trigger at just the right time...shortly before the uptick started this morning.
Added 5000 shares at $3.94.
Well, not necessarily out of the woods yet. But the hammer with the huge handle at opening suggested to me that this was headed up....I've been wrong plenty of times before though.
Yeah, I went ahead and pulled the trigger. Long term, 50 cents per share won't really matter, in my opinion.
GLTA
Freed up some funds, going to grab another 5000 shares but jeez, can't help but think there is going to be another market overreaction dip to mid to low 3's before the next big push up. Opinions?
(I don't make my decisions based on message board opinions for what its worth, I'm just curious)
A bit off topic...anyone see the movie "The Big Short"? I watched it last night. True story about the 2008 real estate collapse. Highly recommend. Will give you some great insight into what really happened, and just how corrupt things were/are. I have been holding FNMA since the sub $1's....and I have been convinced that ultimately justice would prevail and FNMA would be released from conservatorship and allowed to recapitalize. After watching that movie...I'm just not so sure anymore.
Anyway, if you haven't seen the movie, I recommend.
LONG FNMA
I picked up some more last week for the first time in a couple years. It has been so stagnant. Glad I got in with some more last week. Wish I had more powder....
Congrats to all that have been holding for years as I have.
And thus my skepticism...and my posted question. I certainly am no expert at valuation. Nor do I think past pps is any indication of what the future pps will be. I was simply looking for others insight. All in the spirit of my own education.
Happy trading.
Ahhh. Ok. That's alittle more reasonable. ;)
I'll take it.