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Howard, this was a GREAT post with various options!
Due to my limited land space, I will opt for the 'Cold weather "harvest" garden with cold frames inside a greenhouse.'
"Cold hardy varieties are started from seed mid August to ensure they are large enough when cold weather hits. With double insulation from our Canadian winter and heat only from the soil, the plants freeze and thaw with no damage. This small greenhouse provides all the greens desired for 2-3 people till spring."
How to Survive When Shit Hits the Fan
Courtesy of Sandy L. Smith Sandy L. Smith, known as The Massachusetts Prepper on YouTube, has been prepping for natural disasters since the '90s.
Thanks, Howard, I will review these tomorrow.
You are really ramping up your efforts in anticipating peak water, peak oil, and a possibility of a mini ice age.
I will have a local and successful farmer to visit my garden and I will show him my future garden projects. It will include a small green house.
So much going on and I'm getting a slow start due to a very cold March!
sumi
Living off the land: How these Puerto Rican farmers survived the storm
Wed, Mar 21
https://www.nbcnews.com/video/living-off-the-land-how-these-puerto-rican-farmers-survived-hurricane-maria-1191434819872
Don't skip a potato season. Maybe use a few big black containers!
Big Harvest of Container Grown Potatoes : King Edwards
Decided to harvest the 3 small containers of King Edward Potatoes tonight as they were showing the first signs of blight. Managed to get a great harvest of 28.5 pounds from just three 30 litre pots after planting in about Mid April. So all in all considering they were harvested quite early and haven't been growing as long as possible, a really good result. These were planted in standard shop bought compost with just some potato fertilizer and a little blood fish & bone. Happy Gardening.
Urban and Small Farm Agriculture
By Jody Tishmack, originally published by Anima/Soul
March 19, 2018
http://www.resilience.org/stories/2018-03-19/urban-and-small-farm-agriculture/
The History About Each Vegetable
http://theplantguide.net/2018/03/17/the-history-about-each-vegetable/
Amish silo filling
AGRICULTURE NOW EXISTING IN THE U.S.
I was always taught "reap what you sow." My late Mom taught me this Biblical concept, gave me a little plot of land, and showed me how to grow vegetables. The problem with the U.S. now is that around 4% of the food is produced for the other 96%; this is hardly a sustainable proportion. In Russia, which has the “dacha” approach and does not tax food, 40% of the food basically comes from the dacha gardens.
As a nation, we are on a precipice with only three day's food supplies in big box stores. If the grid broke down by whatever reason, we are toast.
The U.S. still produces an abundance of food because it uses a mono or one-crop approach that could not exist without abundant oil, but growing food in petrol-chemicals is probably a slow inducement toward bad health.
The only solution to our food problem would be organic gardening and organic small farms surrounding and supply our cities with food. In the 1950s living on Long Island, it seemed that every property had vegetable gardens. Then the big box grocery stores came into being with trucks and planes supplying the grocery shelves. This approach is not sustainable, as well.
What can be done now? In warm areas of the U.S., Fleet Farming has been formed with an approach to grow vegetables in raised beds on back, front, and side lawns wherever there is sun. Using raised beds is wise as fresh soil and additives can be filled into a large box thus avoiding growing in lawns fed by grass dependent petrol-chemicals. It is working and should spread to more parts of the U.S. [The owners of these lawns receive fresh vegetables and don't have to care for their lawns.]
The gardening and farming concepts must be re-introduced into our public school systems immediately also with raised beds around the school where allowable plus grow rooms inside schools, churches, or tops of more buildings like the Brooklyn Grange. Believe me, give a kid a seed, let it grow, and they become a captive audience forever. At least that was my experience.
Personally I have a seedling program, very limited to ten people, where I give away tomato and pepper seedlings in the spring and seed garlic in the autumn. These ten people once had very small or no gardens; it has been a success, but I cannot supply the world.
40 maps that explain food in America
https://www.vox.com/a/explain-food-america
40 maps that explain food in America
https://www.vox.com/a/explain-food-america
[note: it takes a minute to load in the graphs]
Yes, I agree. To grow organic and do the extra work, I have to workout to do the gardening work. Take a nap in the afternoon, stretch the back again, and then return to the garden. And I sleep well at night.
Another excellent article by Gail Tverberg! Thanks for posting.
Her article is a Rubik cube of possibilities. I will add comments to Gail's conclusion section that further clouds institutional, company and individual decisions.
"My expectation is that the general direction of oil prices is likely downward, especially if interest rates rise. A major financial disruption of any kind would have a similar effect. Gluts of oil can be expected with lower prices."
With past quantitative easings driving bond rates down, the bond values rose enough to prompt fund managers to switch from bonds into stocks to take advantage of stock market run-ups. Now with interest rates going up, the bond values will go down, possibly resulting in the end of the huge bond market bull market. Bond managers might switch to shorter term bonds, pocket interest gains upon maturity, and then either keep the gains in cash upon maturity or reinvest in new lower, but short term priced bonds, or a combination of both new bonds and cash. This would be a conservative approach because the P/E ratios are now outlandish.
"Many groups, including the IEA, have been warning about oil shortages because of inadequate investment in new production. Oil shortages, and energy shortages in general, have a multitude of adverse impacts on economies. One of them is loss of jobs, because jobs require the use of energy, for example, to deliver goods in a truck. If many more people are unemployed, there is less demand for oil."
For the above reasons, it is crazy that the fracking companies resume their recent increased operations. I see more of them collapsing for good once the stock markets crash and they must crash due to black swan events and/or the overpriced securities and accompanying too high price earnings ratios, as earnings cannot maintain the high prices.
"Thus, it is not at all clear that a shortage of oil leads to high prices; it may very well lead to lower prices. Many people are confused about this issue, because the word demand gives a misleading impression of the mechanism involved. Lack of demand comes from part of the population not being able to afford cars and homes. It also comes from cutbacks in government spending and from failing businesses. In an interconnected system, even failing banks tend to reduce oil demand."
Brilliant and obvious by Gail. Low oil prices cannot create automatic demand by people without money.
"Another adverse impact of oil and energy shortages tends to be fighting and wars. The fact that the US seems to be raising its energy production, in apparent disregard for countries that have been trying to cut back, is likely to make some oil exporting countries quite angry. It could sow the seeds for another war."
I can only pray that Gail has overemphasized this point, but the increasing oil supplies can create resentment. I think the resentment will be short lived with an economic collapse and glue of oil, again for the reason that people who cannot afford to drive will not pay at the pump.
"Economists do not seem to understand that GDP growth rates don’t tell very much about the well-being of individual citizens in an economy. A major issue is wage disparity. If there are many very low wage people, there is likely to be downward pressure on the sale of automobiles, and on the purchase of petroleum products. Economists are likely to think everything is fine, up until a major crisis occurs."
Many economists do not deal with the realities of the world. They can write up a storm to publish papers, but they are seldom correct. One of the past economists who was on the correct side was F.A. Hayek.
Gail could not cover everything in her article. I'm worried about the continued replacement of people with robots. Something tells me that 4% of our population feeding the other 96% is a dangerous situation!
Thanks Howard
Biggest & best tomatoes using fish heads, aspirin & water tubes
5/12/2017
https://www.raiseyourgarden.com/home/biggest-best-tomatoes-using-fish-heads-aspirin-water-tubes
Good question on does anyone have data that proves that organic food is healthier than conventional produce?
I don't have the data, but I do have evidence. Conventional food uses petroleum-based pesticides to support their growth. I knew one small farmer who would "light" up his crops using chemicals to promote growth for sale.
Unfortunately continued use of pesticides will kill the life that makes up the soil, which includes microbes, fungi, and worms that aid the natural growth of crops. Organic ingredients supports live soil composition.
Knowing what I know about using something synthetic versus something natural to feed your garden, I would prefer natural. My maternal Grandma, who grew up on a farm, and who in married life had a large garden used aged cow and horse manure. Living on Long Island, she and Grandpa would visit the seashore after a large storm and load up on washed up seaweed, a natural product for her garden beds. Also an ingredient used in the garden were fish heads and other fish parts from Grandpa's weekly fishing to provide food. There were many natural ingredients in this garden and the harvests were immense!
Grandma told me if you survived killing diseases [one daughter died of rheumatic fever], you had a great chance in surviving healthy with naturally grown food. She limited her use of salt and opted using raw honey from a neighbor as a substitute for sugar in baked goods.
My gardening approach is to avoid any chemicals. Having poor and rocky New England soil, I opted for raised beds and filled them with natural compost plus azomite, mycorrhiza, worm castings, and bio-char. I add wood chips on the garden paths; they decompose and there are a lot of worms there. My garden additives are expensive, but my crops are great tasting and I believe support my and my neighbors' health.
Here are the steps for topping off one raised bed with natural compost:
My recommendation it go grow organic; it might be time-consuming and require more effort, but it's worth it.
sumi
Sure glad that Poor Man's Manure is good for the soil!
I got another 22 inches of snow in a blizzard this past Tuesday. There was a good melt yesterday. Next Tuesday it looks like another 8 inches of snow. New England had three nor'easters in 10 days.
First picture is my garlic beds:
Glad you got the onions planted. I remember recommending Dixondale onions preliminarily based on their volume cost. But the quality turned out excellent! Mine will arrive at the beginning of April. I just hope that the snow stops by then.
Good luck to you and others this gardening season!
Eddie
Peak Oil Review: 12 March 2018 Nearly all the participants were happier this year with oil prices in the mid-$60s as compared to recent years when they were considerably lower.
By Tom Whipple, Steve Andrews, originally published by ASPO - USA
March 12, 2018
http://www.resilience.org/stories/2018-03-12/peak-oil-review-12-march-2018/
Quote of the Week
“Yes, the amount of US tight oil being extracted could continue to grow for a while longer — as long as investors keep ponying up money, or as long as the ‘sweet spots’ last, or if oil prices rise significantly. But then production will fall and the country will gradually (or perhaps quickly) return to dependence on declining conventional oil production. As all this has been happening, the idea of a near-term peak in world oil supplies has become discredited. So discredited that even when multiple news organizations reported that the rate of new oil discoveries has plummeted to a level not seen since the 1940s, no one dared even mumble the words ‘peak oil.’”
Richard Heinberg, journalist, and educator
1. Oil and the Global Economy
It was a volatile week with oil prices climbing slowly on Monday and Tuesday, falling by over $2 a barrel on Wednesday and Thursday, and then rebounding to close down about 50 cents for the week on Friday. As has become normal of late, the up days were largely driven by expectations of increasing demand and the down days by fears of a shale oil glut. New York oil has been bouncing around in the low to mid-$60s since mid-January while London futures have been trading some $3-4 higher.
CERAWeek: The news last week was dominated by the CERAWeek conference in Houston put on by IHS Markit that was attended by some 4,000 leaders of the global energy industry. With numerous oil ministers and CEOs giving presentations and holding news conferences, headlines were constantly made. As could be expected, the heart of the meeting focused on the OPEC/NOPEC production cut, the second wave of rapid growth in US shale oil production and the looming global supply crisis as the investment in finding new oil is not keeping pace with increasing demand.
According to Platts energy information service, the major news stories from the conference were:
OPEC leaders meeting with US shale oil executives to search for common ground that would support prices.
Former EIA director Sieminski suggesting that there could be a “decade of disorder” ahead for the oil industry.
The impact that large reductions in industry capital expenditures during the three years will have on the oil supply in the next decade.
The future of the OPEC-Russian alliance to push up oil prices.
And finally the future of Saudi Arabia as the “swing state.”
The IEA hype about the future of the US shale oil industry continued with the Agency announcing that US crude production is expected to reach a record of 12.1 million b/d in 2023, up about 2 million b/d from this year. Last Monday, IEA released its medium-term oil market report which said that after falling by 600,000 b/d in 2016 and 200,000 b/d in 2017, US light tight oil production could climb by about 250,000 b/d in 2018 as the global market begins to rebalance. US shale will see year-on-year growth of about 550,000 b/d within five years as prices recover and technology improvements boost well production rates.
Shale gas also came in for hype. The Siemens AG president and CEO said that an abundance of shale gas has reshaped advantages that the US can offer the global economy. “I believe we are witnessing, and participating in, the reindustrialization of the United States.”
Amidst all the euphoria there were one or two contrarian opinions expressed. Hess CEO John Hess said, “As an industry, we’re not investing enough for supply growth to keep up with demand growth,” Hess said. Hess also said that decreased investment throughout the world, particularly in the offshore, will likely cause supply to plateau or drop as demand continues to rise. The supply crunch will likely hit in three to five years. Mark Papa, the former CEO of EOG Resources, says US oil production will not keep growing as fast as the market seems to think, as most of the best drilling locations in North Dakota and south Texas already have been tapped. He believes shale is not an all-powerful disrupter of oil and gas markets as has been portrayed, and strongly takes issue with the consensus that U.S. production will swamp global supplies and perpetuate lower prices.
The OPEC Production Cut: According to Platts, OPEC February crude outputs fell by 70,000 b/d to 32.39 million. The February output figure was 340,000 b/d below OPEC’s notional ceiling of about 32.73 million b/d. Much of the decline was due to Venezuela’s continuing decline to what Platts says is 1.57 million b/d.
Perhaps the most interesting news last week was the IEA’s prediction that the US will cover 80 percent of the world’s increased demand for oil over the next three years. Canada, Brazil, and Norway are to cover the remainder, leaving no room for more OPEC supply. The IEA’s report paints a gloomy picture for OPEC members, who are hoping to phase out their supply cuts after this year. With non-OPEC supply rising quickly, OPEC may have trouble figuring out a way to increase output without pushing down prices. The cartel may keep the production cuts in place for longer than they had wanted, but doing so would mean ceding even more market share to the US and other non-OPEC producers.
According to the UAE’s oil minister, there has as yet been no discussion about extending the production cut into 2019.
US Shale Oil Production: While last week was dominated by the IEA’s prediction that US shale oil production will continue to grow rapidly, a few voices are expressing concerns. Simon Flowers, Chairman and Chief Analyst at Wood Mackenzie, said late last year that signs have started to emerge that the relentless intensification of drilling leads to diminishing returns. Pumping twice as much sand as usual into Permian wells and drilling longer laterals don’t deliver commensurate volumes of oil. “Drilling costs rise exponentially with depth, and there’s a suspicion that longer wells are hitting a cost efficiency ceiling.” How this will sort out in the next few years is difficult to foresee.
While more sand and longer laterals will yield more oil upfront, many are saying that the additional costs of getting the oil out quicker will catch up with drillers in 2-3 years when the “new technology” wells dry up sooner without producing enough oil to justify the added costs. While higher levels of shale oil production may be easy to attain, the problems will begin when the “sweet spots” are gone and the demand for more and more new output to offset the rapid depletion of the older wells is no longer possible.
2. The Middle East & North Africa
Iran: Iran’s crude and condensate exports seem likely to fall to a two-year low in March as exports to its main Asian buyers will be down by one-third from February. Compared to a year ago, March exports will be down 26 percent. This drop is occurring despite Tehran’s efforts to entice customers, including reducing selling prices and offering to raise the freight. Concern over continuing sanctions is believed to be behind the decline. Japan, Asia’s fourth-biggest buyer of Iranian oil, will not import any Iranian oil this month, the first time since March 2016, amid uncertainty over whether insurance for tankers carrying Iranian oil would be extended beyond the end of the month.
Despite expectations that the Iranian oil industry would grow rapidly after the lifting of the sanctions, little has happened. International oil companies are concerned about the Trump administration ripping up the nuclear agreement and re-imposing some form of sanctions. Iranian officials were hoping the nuclear deal would result in $10 billion a year in fresh foreign investment in Iran’s oil and gas sector but only about $1.3 billion has been invested, mostly from China.
Tehran’s oil-production capacity has plateaued at 3.85 million b/d, according to the International Energy Agency, far below the estimates made by Iranian officials when the sanctions were lifted. France’s Total signed a $1 billion deal in November 2016, but this remains the only western investment announced so far.
The government of Iran imposed new restrictions on the use of the US dollar in the country. Starting on February 28, any supply orders or other import declarations where US dollars are used will not be processed by the Iranian customs authorities. The new rules should not affect current trading operations very much, given that the use of the American currency in Iran was already limited.
Iraq: Iraq’s Parliament voted last Monday to resurrect the Iraq National Oil Company (INOC), three decades after it was merged into the Oil Ministry by Saddam Hussein. If implemented, the law could fundamentally restructure Iraq’s oil sector: INOC is slated to take over key operational responsibilities from the Oil Ministry and report directly to the Council of Ministers.
The oil ministry said that Iraq produced an average total of 4.36 million b/d of crude in January, down just 2,000 b/d from December, and putting it just above its OPEC cut obligations. The total includes production from the Kurdistan Regional Government, which the oil ministry estimated at just 136,000 b/d.
After Kurdistan’s independence referendum, Iraqi forces seized the oil fields around Kirkuk, which had been under Kurdish control since 2014. Two weeks ago, Baghdad and Erbil agreed to a tentative deal to restart full oil flows from Kurdistan, but few details about the deal were announced. The two have yet to settle their dispute over oil revenue sharing, who will pay Kurdistan’s debts, and how much money Iraq will transfer to Kurdistan from its national budget.
The IMF is supporting the objections raised by Erbil over Iraq’s 2018 budget – a dispute that now threatens Baghdad’s ability to access billions of dollars’ worth of international loans. The budget, passed by Parliament, concerns the IMF for two reasons: not only does it allocate just $5.6 billion to the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) – a steep cut compared to previous years, but it also lowers taxes and reduces non-oil revenue.
Saudi Arabia: Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s current trip to Britain and the US could shape the decision on where to list oil giant Aramco. Sources say the chances of London and New York hosting the IPO appear to be receding. Hong Kong is emerging as a likely compromise because Riyadh wants to help Asian nations that are expected to become “cornerstone” investors, including China and Japan. The Saudi energy minister is saying the decision has been pushed back to 2019 and some observers believe that the sale will never occur, or will be scaled back to a listing on the Saudi domestic stock market.
Shell and Saudi Aramco signed last Thursday a preliminary agreement to pursue gas projects worldwide, as Shell is increasingly betting on natural gas production and Aramco seeks to expand its gas business. Saudi Arabia has big gas plans, with Aramco eyeing a twofold increase in its natural gas production over the next ten years as it seeks to switch local power plants to gas from oil. This gas, apparently, could come from shale deposits. According to Aramco’s head of unconventional resources, Khalid Al Abdulqader, the country’s shale gas resources are “huge.”
The Saudis plan to use surplus oil revenues to bolster the financial firepower of its $230 billion Public Investment Fund, the sovereign wealth fund being used for economic modernization efforts. Should oil prices exceed the level required to balance the Saudi budget, any extra revenues would be funneled into the fund. The kingdom’s minister of economy and planning said “Whenever oil is above our break-even point the surplus will go to the fund,” without disclosing the level at which the fiscal balance is zero.
Libya: The National Oil Corp. declared a force majeure on crude deliveries from the 90,000 b/d El-Feel field on February 23, after it was shut and staff evacuated due to protests by local tribes and guards. However, last Wednesday the dispute was apparently settled and staff returned to work. If the dispute is indeed over, Libyan crude production could bounce back to circa 1 million b/d.
3. China
China plans to create an energy ministry to oversee the country’s oil, natural gas, coal and power sectors as part of a shake-up aimed at making policymaking more efficient. The move comes in the wake of the debacle earlier this winter when many buildings in northern China were converted from coal to natural gas without sufficient natural gas supplies available. The new ministry will not be part of the National Development and Reform Commission which supervised the old National Energy Administration but will handle energy-related issues that are currently the responsibility of several government agencies. The move signals China’s acknowledgment of the many issues the country faces as it tries to clean up its air at a time when domestic oil and natural gas production is declining.
To sustain a 6.5 percent rate of economic growth, domestic coal production in 2018 is planned to reach an all-time high at 3.7 billion tons, up 7.3 percent from last year. How this helps with the air pollution problem remains to be seen. The government, however, says it will cut its coal consumption to around 59 percent of the nation’s primary energy mix while raising natural gas consumption to 7.5 percent of the mix in 2018. It also aims to cut coal consumption to just half of its energy mix by 2020 by raising output and demand for renewable fuels. The country hopes to produce around 160 billion cubic meters of natural gas this year, a record and up 8.5 percent from 2017.
Officials from China’s two largest oil and gas producers have urged the government to offer tax breaks for the building of gas storage facilities and importing liquefied natural gas (LNG) to help avoid another gas crunch next winter. China’s increasing demand for imported natural gas became evident last week when the most recent LNG import figures were released. In January, China imported 5.18 million tons of LNG, a new record, compared to the previous record of 5.03 million tons set in December. If there is an LNG glut, Beijing will soon soak it up.
The Chief of the International Energy Agency said at the CERAWeek conference that China will continue to be a main driving force for the growth of global oil demand.
4. Russia
The European Union has been trying to diversify its gas supplies away from Russia, intensifying these efforts after the gas war between Russia and Ukraine in 2010 that led to supply outages in Europe. This gas war has flared up again in recent days after the Stockholm Court of Arbitration ruled in favor of Ukraine’s Naftogaz, slamming Gazprom with a more than $2-billion bill. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said Moscow should speed up work on gas export pipeline projects to Europe due to tensions with Ukraine over the transit of gas.
Russia has plans for two more pipelines—Nord Stream 2 and Turkish Stream—and the EU is building the Trans-Adriatic pipeline that would supply gas from the Caspian Sea to the continent. The Trans-Adriatic line is still several years away from completion, and until then the EU is dependent on Russia. Even though LNG supplies are an alternative for Europe, Russia’s Yamal LNG terminal is closer to Europe than any other supplier’s facility.
The UK received two Russian LNG cargos this week after the “Beast of the East” cold spell engulfed Europe.
Russia’s first deputy minister of energy Aleksey Texler said at the CERAWeek last week that Russia sees no reason to join OPEC, but the need to continue the OPEC/non-OPEC cooperation in some form after the production cuts end is obvious.
5. Angola
The International Energy Agency warned in its 2018 oil report that Angola’s oil fields are maturing and are nearing depletion and that unless new investments are made the situation will continue getting worse. Angola’s oil production could drop to just 1.29 million b/d over the next five years. Currently, the country pumps around 1.63 million b/d. Angola was once a magnet for the world’s biggest oil companies, drawing billions of dollars in investment; however, energy companies have reduced capital spending in Angola more than in any other sub-Saharan African country, with an estimated $67 billion in spending cuts from 2015 to 2020.
More troubles are coming from the heavy rains, filthy conditions, medicine shortages and endemic corruption that have combined to increase malaria across Angola. Since the start of the year, more than 300,000 cases of the disease have been reported, leading to at least a thousand deaths. Experts say this is a clear sign of the poverty and failings of governance in a country which, paradoxically, is one of Africa’s top oil producers.
On the bright side, Total, which is heading the 230,000-barrel per day Kaombo project, said the first vessel that will pump and store oil in Angola’s waters is on its way from Singapore right now. The $16 billion project is slated to cause a 14 percent jump in oil production compared to 2017 oil production, which stood at 1.63 million b/d. The floating production, storage, and offloading unit will be able to pump 115,000 b/d, half of the project’s final expected output. Offshore production is growing in West Africa as a way the international oil companies can avoid all the troubles of producing oil onshore.
6. Venezuela
There is still no good news. Some 4,000 Venezuelans are fleeing to Columbia each day to avoid starvation, health services are collapsing, and there now is a critical shortage of blood.
What the Trump administration will do is the center of speculation. There are reports that Washington is becoming more serious about imposing heavier sanctions such as Venezuelan oil imports or banning the export of the dilutants need to make Venezuela’s very heavy crude exportable. Most observers are saying that these additional US sanctions would collapse the country’s oil industry and lead to still more hardships for the people. Venezuela sends much of its oil to refineries on the Gulf Coast, but these shipments have fallen to 439,000 b/d in the week to February 23 from 654,000 b/d a year earlier. The reasons for the decline are lower production and worsening quality of the oil some of which is being rejected by US importers as too bad to refine.
China and Russia have an interest in bailing out the Maduro government which is heavily in debt to both countries, but it is starting to look like bailing out Venezuela is beyond what these countries are willing to invest. The loss of Venezuelan exports from the world market would likely have a significant impact on prices by offsetting much of expected increases from the Permian Basin. While a collapse of Venezuela’s oil production would still leave the reserves, the country’s infrastructure, both human and equipment, is in such poor condition it will take large investments to restore.
7. The Briefs (selections from the press – date of article in Peak Oil News is in parentheses – see more here: news.peak-oil.org)
Super-major surprise: IEA data reveal that oil production from legacy fields worldwide declined by a more modest pace, of less than 6 percent, compared with 7.5 percent a year earlier. Shell’s head of deepwater operations, Wael Sawan, said that “Companies are focusing on the basics. So there was a massive re-focus on existing wells. It’s the cheapest and most profitable barrel that companies can access.” The lower decline rates are part of the industry’s response to low oil prices. (3/10)
Diesel downturn: the accelerating demise of diesel, long used by carmakers to boost fuel-efficiency, is undermining their plans to meet looming European Union CO2 goals and avoid big annual fines. Executives gathered on Tuesday at the Geneva auto show are grappling with unpalatable choices: re-engineer existing vehicles at huge expense, restrict sales of some profitable models; or risk hundreds of millions of euros in penalties. Others are clinging to the hope that the image of the latest Euro 6 type of diesels may yet be rehabilitated, and their fortunes restored. (3/6)
Toyota, buoyed by strong European customer demand for hybrid versions on its core models, will phase out diesel engines from all its passenger cars in 2018. In 2017, hybrids represented 41 percent of Toyota’s European total sales, rising 38 percent year-on-year to 406,000 units. In contrast, Toyota’s diesel mix on passenger cars was less than 10 percent in 2017. However, Toyota will continue to offer diesel engines in commercial vehicles to meet customer needs. (3/6)
New rules to impact: Global executives and traders are bracing for higher volatility in fuel markets as they expect refiners to process more light crude oil in the lead-up to new rules aimed at slashing the use of dirty high-sulfur fuel oil in global shipping. Beginning in 2020, shipping vessels will not be allowed to burn fuel with a sulfur content higher than 0.5 percent, down from 3.5 percent currently. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) plan is among the most significant changes in decades for global shipping and refining. (3/9)
Greece became enthusiastic about fossil fuel prospects in the eastern Mediterranean after giant fields were found near Israel and Egypt. Exxon, Total, and Hellenic Petroleum have teamed up to bid on a block near Crete, while Repsol and Hellenic Petroleum bid on another block in the Ionian Sea. The tenders went live last year after several multinationals expressed interest in developing the fields. (3/6)
Saudi expectation: The global oil and gas industry needs to invest more than $20 trillion over the next 25 years to meet expected growth in demand and compensate for the natural decline in developed fields, Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Officer Amin Nasser said on Tuesday at the CERAWeek conference in Houston. He noted “even conservative estimates” suggest the need for about 20 million b/d of new capacity in the next five years. (3/7)
On India’s west coast, Royal Dutch Shell is planning to build a truck loading facility at its Hazira liquefied natural gas terminal as it looks to meet demand from industrial users, a top company official said on Friday. The facility, which could be ready by next year, will be used to supply industrial demand through trucking in places that can’t access supply from the grid. (3/9)
In Papua New Guinea, a deadly earthquake that struck ExxonMobil’s $19 billion gas project in the mountains is sparking a backlash against the US energy giant that could prove harder to fix than buried roads and broken pipes. Some spooked locals blame Exxon and its project partners of causing, or at least magnifying, the 7.5 magnitude quake on Feb. 26 and a series of intense aftershocks that continue to pound the impoverished and isolated region. While firmly denied by Exxon and debunked by geologists, the accusations suggest that the project known as PNG LNG, one of the most successful liquefied natural gas (LNG) developments in the world, is sorely lacking goodwill from at least parts of the local population. (3/7)
Latin America derailing: A new report from Verisk Maplecroft says that Latin America’s election “super-cycle” presents a series of potential obstacles for ongoing oil and gas development. Mexico may top the list of vulnerable countries, but voters are also heading to the polls in Colombia, Brazil, and Venezuela this year.
Argentina’s state oil and gas company YPF expects its oil and gas production from shale deposits to increase 35 percent this year thanks to falling costs at the huge Vaca Muerta play, the company said. It added, however, that overall production will decline by 2-3 percent because of maturing fields elsewhere. Drilling costs for horizontal wells had fallen to $1,390 per lateral foot at end-2017 versus $2,270 in 2016 and $3,050 in 2015. Thanks to this, YPF now plans to drill 100 wells in Vaca Muerta. (3/8)
In Mexico, fortunes in the oil industry continue to rapidly disintegrate as falling oil production and rising costs resulted in an $18 billion fourth-quarter loss for the state-run oil company, PEMEX. Part of the reason for the huge financial loss at PEMEX was the fall in the value of the Mexican peso. While PEMEX’s costs are in pesos, it sells crude oil and purchases petroleum products in dollars. Because the Mexican peso declined 8% versus the dollar, it put a huge strain on the company’s year-end financials. (3/6)
In Mexico, after nine bidding rounds in just three years and with a presidential election scheduled in July, the nation’s oil regulator has started a campaign to convince Pemex and foreign investors that this is the moment to develop much needed extra-heavy oil reserves. (3/7)
Alberta’s government may be considering a suspension of crude oil shipments to British Columbia in the latest episode of what is turning into a drama series starring Canada’s biggest oil producer and its neighbor who wants to stop the extension of a crude oil pipeline to its coast. Alberta’s Lieutenant Governor Lois Mitchell said that all options for retaliation against B.C.’s opposition to the Trans Mountain expansion are on the table. (3/10)
The US oil rig count declined by four last week to 796 while the gas rig count increased by 7 to 188. The total rig count of 984 is an addition of 216 rigs year over year. The oil and gas rig count in the US has increased by 60 during 2018. Canada’s total rig count decreased by 29 for the week; Canada now has fewer rigs than it did a year ago. (3/10)
Chevron expects its 2018 net production to grow by between 4 percent and 7 percent at oil prices at $60 a barrel, the US oil supermajor said in its annual security analyst meeting on Tuesday. Last year, Chevron’s production was 2.73 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, 5-percent growth over 2016, and this year and until 2020, Chevron believes it is “well-positioned to sustain this momentum.” (3/7)
ExxonMobil expects to increase hydrocarbons production by more than 1 million b/d of oil equivalent by 2025, from 3.985 million boe/d in 2017, as output from the Permian Basin grows five-fold and 25 new startups globally come online, CEO Darren Woods said Wednesday. (3/8)
Exxon Mobil Corp’s $200 million write-down last month on abandoned ventures in Russia – once its next big frontier – points to challenges facing CEO Darren Woods in his second year leading the world’s largest publicly traded oil producer. Some of the biggest bets taken by his predecessor Rex Tillerson have resulted in billions of dollars in write-downs amid falling production and a stock price that has long lagged peers. That leaves Woods facing the prospect of slow growth and billions of dollars in new spending that could weigh on results for years. (3/7)
State budget blues: More than three years after the collapse in oil prices, energy-producing states such as Alaska, Oklahoma, and Louisiana continue to struggle with budget shortfalls, and fiscal 2019 is no different as lawmakers seek permanent revenue solutions. In Alaska, the state’s proposed capital budget for fiscal 2019 is $150 million, down from nearly $2 billion in fiscal 2013, a drop of more than 90 percent. It still faces a budget deficit of $2.5 billion for next year. (3/6)
Big Oil vs. Big Corn: A meeting planned for March 12th at the White House is the latest in a series of talks between Big Corn and Big Oil arranged since late last year amid rising concern over the US Renewable Fuel Standard, a law requiring refiners to mix biofuels such as corn-based ethanol into their fuel. The battle pits two traditionally Republican constituencies against each other. (3/9)
New York Governor Andrew Cuomo on Friday said he had formally asked for the state to be excluded from a federal offshore drilling program that he said would threaten its ocean resources and endanger efforts toward a cleaner energy economy. The five-year program, launched by the federal government in early January, proposes to make over 90 percent of the total US offshore acreage available to oil and gas drilling. (3/10)
In Utah, even before President Trump officially opened his high-profile review last spring of federal lands protected as national monuments, the Department of Interior was focused on the potential for oil and gas exploration at a protected Utah site, internal agency documents show. The debate started as early as March 2017, when an aide to Senator Orrin Hatch, Republican of Utah, asked a senior Interior Department official to consider shrinking Bears Ears National Monument in the southeastern corner of the state. (3/6)
The Oklahoma Corporation Commission, the state’s oil regulator, ordered all drillers to deploy seismic arrays to detect ground motion within five kilometers of hydraulic fracturing operations over a 39,000-square-kilometre area in the center of the state. The commission also lowered the minimum level of earthquakes at which operators must change practices from the current 2.5 magnitude to 2. In addition, frackers must suspend their operations immediately for up to six hours after causing a 2.5 magnitude earthquake which can be felt at the surface. The commission created this new earthquake protocol after hydraulic fracturing operations set off more than 70 earthquakes of at least 2.5 magnitude since 2016. (3/10)
Coming cooling boom: A huge economic boom is coming, in an industry you probably haven’t heard of: cooling. As more people move to cities and incomes rise in tropical regions around the world, researchers estimate the amount of electricity needed to meet their rising demand for cooling could be ten times higher by 2050 than today. Cooling will be a major growth opportunity for companies that can simultaneously replace the polluting chemicals used in cooling today and produce more efficient, affordable cooling equipment. (3/10)
From thin air….Start-up Mattershift says it has achieved a breakthrough in making carbon nanotube membranes at large scale. The startup is developing the technology’s ability to combine and separate individual molecules to make gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel using CO 2 removed from the air. (3/10)
Tesla’s Semi, the electric truck that the company unveiled a few months ago, has been sent on its first cargo trip, transporting battery packs from the gigafactory in Nevada to the Tesla car factory in California. The distance between the gigafactory and the Fremont car plant is some 250 miles so that the trip would demonstrate the range of the Semis: according to Tesla, the trucks can travel 500 miles with a full load without a recharge. (3/9)
Battery barrage: GE is set to announce a giant battery platform called GE Reservoir that can store power generated by wind turbines and solar panels for later use. It can also be used to add jolts of power when needed to stabilize voltage and frequency on the electric grid. (3/8)
An EV ask: General Motors Co. Chief Executive Mary Barra is pressing Washington for an expansion of electric-vehicle tax credits, a plea that would help the company and rivals like Tesla sell battery-powered cars in an era of cheap gasoline and skepticism about alternative vehicles. A handful of automakers face the expiration of $7,500 income-tax credit that has applied to hundreds of thousands of electric-vehicle purchases since the Obama administration established the offer. (3/8)
Cape Town has become painfully aware of the value of water. The unwelcome combination of a once-in-a-century drought, a booming population, and a relatively inflexible water supply, means the South African city will have its taps turned off on 9 July. The dreaded Day Zero will mean people will be forced to queue for their water under police or military supervision. Experts say that Cape Town could be the first of many cities around the world to experience the brutal reality of water demand far outstripping supply. (3/8)
Oily renewables? While energy companies are constantly pressured by the environmental movement to clean up their act, they are facing increased pressure from investors to churn profits—so investing in renewables, with unknown technology and regulations, is still too much of a gamble for the oil and gas companies. (3/7)
Peak Oil Review: 5 March 2018
By Tom Whipple, Steve Andrews, originally published by ASPO - USA
March 5, 2018
http://www.resilience.org/stories/2018-03-05/peak-oil-review-5-march-2018/
Quote of the Week
“Eight to 10 million tourists a year come down to Charleston. They don’t want to come to see oil drilling off the coast. Ain’t gonna happen. Not on my watch!” Rep. Nancy Mace (R), a new state representative for S. Carolina, responding to new offshore drilling proposal by the Trump administration
Graphic of the Week
[Note: it appears to us that to achieve the EIA’s higher level scenario shown here—18 million barrels of crude oil production a day in the US by 2050? – would require some unique coverage, of the gas and oil sector, by a Dreamers Act.]
1. Oil and the Global Economy
Oil prices fell sharply last week ending up at $61.25 in New York and $64.37 in London. A higher than expected increase in crude stocks and gasoline was the impetus for the decline. An unexpected decline in Chinese economic activity, likely due to the winter holiday, did not help the outlook for oil nor did President’s Trump’s announcement of new tariffs and the remark that “trade wars are good, and easy to win” did not help the outlook for oil prices. US oil production and the oil-rig count continue to climb slowly. Talk in Washington of crippling new sanctions on Venezuela which would likely remove still more of its oil from the export stream did not help the situation.
The price setback may be only temporary as the market has become enthralled with the current pace of production increases by the US shale oil industry. Many observers are saying that the demand for oil will remain strong into 2020 when the growing electric vehicle industry could start eroding the demand for oil. This projection assumes that the global economy stays healthy for the next few years despite numerous voices sounding alarms.
The OPEC Production Cut: The cartel produced 32.28 million b/d in February — a reduction of 70,000 b/d in comparison to January. The February output was the lowest since last April. The carefully watched compliance with the November 2016 agreement rose to 149 percent in February, jumping five points from January. Some are saying the job of balancing the market is not complete. Even though international oil prices in January topped $71 per barrel, they fell below $64 for a short time last week. Much of the drop in supply was due to the UAE which for the past year has been slow in keeping up its part of the agreement.
US Shale Oil Production: US drillers increased the rig count to 800 for the first time in almost three years. The pace of drilling has grown in an almost-unbroken streak since the beginning of November signaling even bigger production jumps yet to come. Between 2010 and 2015, annual US oil production grew by four million b/d. Production dropped due to the lower prices in 2016, but then rose by 1.2 million BPD between January and December 2017.
In its 2018 Annual Energy Outlook, the EIA makes three projections as to what will happen between now and 2050. In the most likely “reference” or middle case US oil production climbs from the current 10 million b/d to 12 million and stays close to this level for the next 32 years. The low case has production peaking around the current level and then wilting away to 7 or 8 million b/d by 2050. In the high, or wildly optimistic, case, US oil production climbs and climbs to around 19 million b/d three decades from now.
The Reference case projection which assumes that oil finding and drilling technologies will continue to improve as they have in recent years has come in for sharp criticism as it is seen as the official US government projection as to where our oil production is going. The heart of these criticisms is that except for the Permian Basin, other US shale oil fields have already peaked or are unlikely to grow significantly. US offshore production currently is not receiving enough investment to grow significantly.
This rapid growth leaves the Permian as America’s hope for energy dominance. The basin, which has been producing conventional oil for nearly 100 years is currently producing about 2.9 million b/d up from less than 1 million ten years ago. The EIA estimates that oil production from the Permian is currently growing by about 75,000 b/d each month with 258,000 b/d from newly opened wells outpacing the monthly decline of about 183,000 b/d from older wells.
Critics are saying that this rate of increase is unlikely to last. Drillers are concentrating on a finite number of productive sweet spots which will not last for the next 30 years. Costs are rising rapidly so that an increasing number of wells will be losing money. Finally, outside analysts who have examined oil production from the Permian closely say that these expensive “new technologies” do not increase the amount of oil extracted from each new well, but only get similar amounts of oil out faster. The amount of oil that will ultimately be recovered from each well remains about the same depending on the quality of the location that is drilled.
The course of production from the Permian over the next few years may be key to what happens to the US and even world oil production. If drillers cannot come up with some 180,000 b/d of new production each month then production will start to decline. The state of the US economy over the next few years will be another factor with higher interest rates adding a heavy burden to an industry which has been operating at a loss for a decade.
2. The Middle East & North Africa
Iraq: Baghdad exported an average 3.79 million b/d in February, a slight month-on-month increase from January. The federal government sold 3.426 million b/d, down from 3.49 million b/d in January. The reduction in federal oil sales – all of which currently flows through export terminals in the Basra Gulf terminals – was likely due to poor weather and leaks in pipelines leading offshore.
Iraq and Kurdistan may have agreed to a deal with the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government to resume crude oil exports through its pipeline to Turkey, halted since last July. KRG officials have been silent on the deal to transport crude produced by Baghdad’s oil companies through its pipeline to the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan.
Another option is the rehabilitation of the pipeline running north from Kirkuk to the Turkish port city of Ceyhan. This pipeline has been out of service since the ISIS offensive several years ago and even then was subject to frequent bombings by insurgent groups trying to reduce the federal government’s revenues. Iraqi Oil Minister al-Luaibi met in Baghdad last week with the regional director of Russian oil company Rosneft to discuss opportunities in the Iraqi energy sector, including efforts to overhaul the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline.
The much heralded Iraqi-Iranian oil swap deal under which Iraq would truck 60,000 b/d of Kirkuk oil to Iran in exchange for Iranian oil to southern Iraq cannot be currently fully implemented because of security issues, an Iranian official said last week. The government apparently cannot control large swaths of territory, as Islamic State insurgents regroup, solidify footholds, and launch attacks targeting security forces and energy infrastructure. Convoys of trucks carrying 60,000 b/d of Iraqi oil into Iran would be a prime target for a resurrected ISIS made up largely of Sunnis.
Basra Oil Co is preparing to tender for a water injection project vital to increase its oil production capacity if talks with Exxon Mobil fail. A massive water injection project which would pump seawater below Iraq’s older oil fields is the key to increasing Iraqi oil production in the south. This multi-billion dollar project, which has involved ExxonMobil, has been under consideration for the last ten years, but little progress has been made. Iraqi Oil Minister al-Luaibi said in October that Baghdad was in final talks with Exxon on developing the project.
Iraq is in talks with Chevron Corp about taking part in the further development of the Majnoon oilfield and with Total about building a new 150,000 b/d refinery at Nassiriya.
Saudi Arabia: King Salman has sacked his top military commanders, including the chief of staff, in a series of late-night royal decrees. The king also replaced the heads of the ground forces and air defenses. No reason was given for the sackings, but they come as the war in Yemen drags on and is nearing the end of the third year of fighting. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who is also the defense minister, is believed to be behind various recent shake-ups.
The Crown Prince will be leaving next month for a three-week tour to drum up investment in his country. His agenda hasn’t yet been revealed, but sources say he will start his tour March 7 in London, then head to New York, Washington, San Francisco and maybe even Texas.
Nature magazine’s new study says Saudi Arabian oilfields are amongst the lowest carbon emitters on the planet. The study was conducted by Stanford University with funding from Saudi Aramco and focused on the producers that supplied significant amounts of fuel to China. Venezuelan fields were at the bottom of the list with carbon intensity measured at six times that of Saudi Arabia. This was likely due to PDVSA’s widespread use of “steam flooding” to increase oil flows.
Libya: Marathon’s subsidiary in Libya held a 16.3 percent stake in the Waha concession and the acquisition gives Total access to more than 500 million barrels of oil equivalent reserves.
3. China
China’s official gauge of manufacturing activity for February suffered its largest drop since 2011 leaving growth near the zero level. The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index published by China’s National Bureau of Statistics fell to 50.3, down a point from January. The fall marked the gauge’s nearest brush with the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction since August 2016. China’s statistics bureau attributed the slowdown to the lunar new year holiday when migrant workers return to their home villages, and output typically dips. In 2017 the holiday stretched from the end of January through early February, while this year’s holiday fell entirely in February, making for an unfavorable comparison.
China eliminated or suspended 65 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired power capacity in 2017, exceeding the national target of 50 GW, according to the Xinhua news agency. The Chinese want to eliminate or halt a total of 109 GW of coal-fired power capacity by the end of this decade while at the same time keeping its total installed coal-fired power capacity below 1,100 GW. However, coal remains China’s major fuel source because of inadequate infrastructures such as pipelines, storage, and electricity transmission lines that would raise the utilization of clean energy. Last year, China’s coal consumption went up for the first time since 2013, but coal usage as a portion of total energy consumption dropped by 1.6 percentage points to 60.4 percent.
China’s crude oil imports from the US hit a new record high of 474,450 b/d in January. The volume was significantly higher than the last record high of 289,443 b/d registered in November last year. Unipec, the trading arm of Asia’s largest refiner Sinopec, said it would raise its shipments from the US to China by around 80% to 10 million tons in 2018, from 5.57 million tons last year.
4. Russia
Just hours after an arbitration court ruled in favor of Naftogaz in a long-running payment dispute between the Ukrainian state company and Russia’s Gazprom, a fresh dispute over natural gas flared up on Thursday. Naftogaz said that Gazprom had not stood by its commitment to resume gas supplies, forcing Ukraine to reduce gas usage amid Arctic temperatures.
US and EU sanctions on Russia meant ExxonMobil had to leave a joint venture with Russian oil company Rosneft. Exxon said in an update to its 10-k filing to the Securities and Exchange Commission that it was complying with sanctions imposed in 2014 and expanded ones from the US government last year. Rosneft said on Thursday it would continue developing oil and gas projects on its own and would continue working with Exxon on projects which are not subject to sanctions. President Putin said last week that Russia needed to develop new technology to prospect for offshore oil and gas in the Arctic.
5. Nigeria
Nigeria’s aging and ill-maintained refineries are unable to meet domestic fuel demand and have made Nigeria the only OPEC member to import gasoline. As a result, Nigeria is the world’s largest gasoline importer. “We actually import one million tons of PMS (Premium Motor Spirit — gasoline) every month into a country that produces oil and gas and has a refinery.” In February the country imported $5.8 billion worth of gasoline in an attempt to alleviate the fuel shortages and end the queues at the gas stations in Nigeria.
6. Venezuela
The Trump administration is considering sanctioning a Venezuelan military-run oil services company and restricting insurance coverage for Venezuelan oil shipments to ratchet up pressure on socialist President Nicolas Maduro. A US official, close to the deliberations on Venezuela policy said he would not rule out an eventual full-scale ban on Venezuelan oil shipments to the US.
Discussion of new sanctions comes as Venezuela’s main opposition coalition is boycotting the upcoming presidential election, citing “fraudulent” conditions. Last week the country’s election board postponed the presidential vote from April 22 to the second half of May after an agreement between the government and some opposition parties.
If the US expands sanctions on Venezuela to restrict US exports of oil products that are crucial for diluting Venezuela’s extra-heavy oil, oil production would be close to a total collapse. Imports of naphtha from the US currently are some 2 million barrels per month. Oil production in the Orinoco heavy-oil belt depends on the imports of this heavy naphtha, which is blended with the thick extra-heavy oil to allow it to flow through pipelines. Without a source of naphtha, Venezuela’s oil industry would be close to a total collapse, causing still more hardships on its people.
The Venezuela state oil company PDVSA, which has borrowed more than $6bn from Kremlin-controlled Rosneft, caused consternation in Washington last year after putting up a 49.9 percent stake in its US-based refining subsidiary, Citgo, as collateral against a portion of the loan. To many in Congress, Moscow’s acquisition of a large US refiner was unthinkable.
Last week, Swiss commodity trader Mercuria asked the US Treasury for permission to buy out a $1.5 billion loan between Russia’s Rosneft and PDVSA, thus eliminating the prospect of Moscow taking control of refineries on US soil. Rosneft would face an uphill struggle to get approval to take over a stake in Citgo so a Mercuria buyout would avoid yet another problem between the US and Russia.
7. The Briefs (selections from the press – date of article in Peak Oil News is in parentheses – see more here: news.peak-oil.org)
LNG investments needed: Without new operations, the global market for liquefied natural gas could slip into a deficit by the middle of the next decade, Royal Dutch Shell said. Since 2000, the number of supplier nations has doubled, while those importing it quadrupled. By 2030, more than $200 billion of investment in liquefied natural gas is needed to meet the continuing boom in demand. But a decline in spending in the sector since 2014 as a result of weaker energy prices will create a supply gap from the mid-2020s unless new investments emerge. (2/27)
Offshore Norway, a quarter of a billion dollars in development contracts puts the Nova field in the Norwegian waters of the North Sea closer to production. Discovered in 2012, the field is expected to yield between 60 million and 140 million barrels of oil equivalents. (2/28)
Germany’s top administrative court has ruled that the country’s cities have the right to ban diesel cars — a move that could have far-reaching consequences. The ruling, pushed by the need for air pollution reduction, comes as a blow to the country’s automotive industry, which is bracing for a drop in demand for diesel cars. These cars accounted for 45 percent of new registrations in January last year. That share has since fallen to 33 percent. (2/28)
Israel’s energy minister said this week that the country aims to eliminate the use of coal, gasoline and diesel fuel by 2030. Speaking at an energy conference in Tel Aviv, Energy Minister Steinitz said the country’s manufacturing and transportation industries will be fueled entirely by natural gas, electricity and alternative fuels within the next 12 years. (3/1)
In Australia, Fortescue Metal and two Japanese utilities plan to build an LNG import terminal in New South Wales by 2020 to help alleviate an energy crunch in Australia’s most populous state. The supply crunch has come amid soaring gas exports that, as has happened with other major exporters, have shrunk local supplies, causing price spikes. In Australia last year, things got so bad that gas on the domestic market was much costlier than exports to Japan. (2/27)
In Papua New Guinea, production at a liquefied natural gas facility was shut down safely after a major earthquake last week. More than a dozen people were left dead after the island was hit with a 7.5-magnitude earthquake on Monday. (2/28)
Offshore Guyana, Exxon announced that a seventh oil discovery should support the eventual growth of oil production to more than a half a million barrels per day. During the fourth quarter, the company put the total reserve estimate at more than 3.2 billion barrels of oil equivalent, not counting the latest finds. (3/1)
Bidding for offshore Mexico blocks one month ago, Shell bid so aggressively for the Mexican blocks that it confounded industry experts; the company swept up nine of the 19 offshore blocks. Shell knew something no one else did. Six months earlier, its drilling rig had struck a giant oil reservoir, the Whale well, in the US side of the Gulf of Mexico. Calculating that this significantly increased the chances of the Mexican blocks also containing treasure, Shell delayed the announcement of the discovery until the day of the auction, after bids had been submitted. (3/3)
Canada’s First Nations are boosting investments and leveraging their clout with regulators to gain stakes in oil and gas projects as they seek greater returns on energy produced or transported across their territory. Aboriginal groups in Canada have traditionally played a more passive role in the energy industry, collecting royalties from oil and gas output. That model is changing. (3/3)
In Alberta, the provincial government said it would back a process called partial upgrading with an eight-year, US$780 million commitment starting in 2019. Partial upgrading reduces the thickness of the heavier type of crude oil found in the province, which can cut industry costs and improve refinery processing. It also increases the amount of product that can flow through pipelines. (2/28)
The US oil rig count increased by one to 800, or 191 over this time last year. The number of gas rigs, which rose by 2 this week, now stands at 181, or 35 rigs above this week last year. Canada lost another 4 rigs this week after losing 12 last week; the losses were 6 for gas, while oil gained 2. (3/3)
US crude oil production shattered a 47-year output record in November, and then retreated slightly in December, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday, as oil production from shale continued to upend global supply patterns. Oil output rose to 10.057 million b/d in November, according to revised figures from the EIA. December production fell 108,000 b/d to 9.949 million, the EIA said. November’s output was the highest on record, surpassing the 10.044 million b/d of crude produced in November 1970. (3/1)
Cleaning up the 94,096 oil and gas wells on US federal land after they stop producing could cost $6.1 billion, and taxpayers may need to pitch in, according to an analysis commissioned by conservation watchdog group ECONorthwest. The study released on Monday reflects one of the downsides to a years-long drilling boom that has made the US a top world oil and gas producer. (2/27)
Chesapeake Energy has class action lawsuits filed against it in seven states by landowners alleging underpayment of royalties. Much of the controversy surrounding royalty money boils down to post-production costs: the expenses of moving and treating gas through a network of pipelines. To cover the costs, drillers might take deductions from royalty checks. Some landowners agree to that, while others negotiate a lease that prohibits it. Many sign leases that don’t address it at all. (3/3)
Chevron, in its second climate change report, said its business is resilient to a number of scenarios the company has looked into, despite the push towards more renewable energy and less oil and gas. The company notes that most forecasts for global energy demand agree that demand for fossil fuel-generated energy will continue to rise in the coming decades, which means Chevron’s main products will not be forced out of the market by renewables anytime soon. (3/3)
Offshore royalties cutback? Top Democrats on the Senate and House natural resources committees urged the Interior Department to drop a proposed cut to offshore oil and gas royalties, warning such a reduction would shortchange US taxpayers. The Interior Department’s Royalty Policy Committee is due to evaluate a proposal to lower the royalty rate companies pay on petroleum produced in federal offshore waters to 12.5 percent from 18.75 percent – part of a plan by the Trump administration to encourage more US energy production. (2/28)
Biofuels movement? US President Donald Trump told rivals from the oil and corn industry gathered at the White House on Thursday that he supports changing the nation’s biofuels policy in a way that would limit costs to refiners while also expanding sales of ethanol. He supported capping the price of biofuels blending credits that refiners must acquire to comply with the RFS, while also expanding ethanol sales by raising ethanol content in gasoline. (3/3)
Biofuels kerfuffle? US Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue told an agriculture conference last Wednesday that he and President Donald Trump support the country’s biofuels policy, and that any reports to the contrary are “fake news.” Perdue made the comments a day after Trump hosted a meeting with Cabinet officials and senators to discuss potential changes to the Renewable Fuel Standard to help refiners who say they are struggling under the program. (3/1)
Jet biofuel: The International Air Transport Association has set an ambitious goal for its members: transporting a billion passengers on flights using biofuel by 2025. The goal is a demonstration of IATA’s efforts to help cut carbon dioxide emissions. However, the prospects of biofuel being used on a large enough scale to noticeably dent Big Oil’s income are remote. For starters, biofuel is costlier than regular jet fuel. (3/1)
Wind whopper: General Electric Co. said Thursday that it is planning to build what would be the world’s largest offshore wind turbine—a behemoth nearly three times as tall as the Statue of Liberty. GE said the Haliade-X turbine would be capable of producing 12 megawatts of electricity. (3/3)
MIT researchers have developed a new energy generating device called a thermal resonator: a device that draws heat from the air around it and turns this heat into electricity. It does not need to be in the sun, it could actually be put in the perpetual shade below a solar panel, and it would still generate power thanks to the always present temperature fluctuations. This is early days for the device, and the thermal resonator can only generate tiny amounts of power. But it is a promising gadget nevertheless as it has the hypothetical potential to make batteries obsolete. (3/3)
A year-2100 energy forecast? Dr. Euan Mearns, writing on the Energy Matters blog, looked at the expected increase in population and per capita energy consumption between 2015 and the end of this century, and concluded annual demand could top 29.5 billion tons of oil equivalent (TOE). That would be a 124-percent increase over current demand, raising questions over where the capacity will come from. (2/27)
Peak Oil Review: 26 February 2018
By Tom Whipple, Steve Andrews, originally published by ASPO - USA
February 27, 2018
http://www.resilience.org/stories/2018-02-27/peak-oil-review-26-february-2018/
Quote of the Week
“For shale gas to be commercially produced [in the U.K.], extensive work must be carried out to better understand the potential resource base, the social…will for which remains sour. We remain highly skeptical over the longer-term viability of shale gas in the UK.” BMI Research oil and gas analysts (2/17)
Graphic of the Week
Oil and the Global Economy
After a $7 a barrel fall between late January and mid-February, oil prices have rebounded by about $4.50 a barrel and are now in the $63-67 range. Both major oil price benchmarks, WTI and Brent, saw the second straight week of gains. There seem to be several factors behind the rebound. These range from strong demand particularly in Asia to reports that the oil glut that has obtained for the last few years is shrinking. US crude stocks fell by 1.6 million barrels last week and by 2.7 million at the Cushing hub which is receiving much of the US shale oil production. Last week’s EIA data showed US crude exports above 2 million b/d, very close to the record of 2.1 million set in October. Of note was the first export of US crude on board a 2 million barrel capacity supertanker that was loaded at the Louisianan Offshore Oil Port that has been reconfigured to handle exports as well as imports.
It has been well established for many years that higher oil prices have a negative effect on economic growth. Everything, most notably gasoline, becomes more expensive so that people of necessity slow their buying and economic slowdowns of varying proportions ensue. A recent Wall Street Journal story attempts to argue that due to the US shale oil boom which they think is likely to continue for decades, this is no longer the case. The WSJ case rests on the assertion the US has “plentiful reserves of tight oil” and that exploitation of these reserves will trigger so much economic activity it will offset whatever oil prices increases may occur. Indeed the EIA is forecasting that world oil prices will remain below $100 a barrel until the mid-2030’s. Given that global demand for oil at current prices has been increasing at an annual rate of over 1 million b/d in recent years, it is difficult to see how US shale oil production can meet this demand. There is a major disconnect in the understanding of where oil production and prices are going in the next decade or so.
The OPEC Production Cut: The latest discussions between OPEC and its oil-exporter allies concluded that the supply glut is dissipating at a faster pace than previously anticipated. After about four years of surplus, the global oil market will rebalance in the second or third quarter, earlier than previously estimated. This conclusion is based on signals of tighter supply, including Brent crude briefly surging above $70 a barrel and oil stockpiles in developed nations falling by the most in six years. OECD inventories are now just 74 million barrels above the five-year average recorded in January 2017, according to a report by Reuters. When the output reduction deal went into effect at the beginning of last year, inventories were 340 million barrels above the benchmark.
Compliance with the effort to balance the market with production cuts was supported by “several over-performing countries” mainly the Saudis, their small Gulf allies and Russia. The collapse of Venezuelan production helped OPEC while increasing production in Nigeria and Libya slowed the effort.
There are reports that OPEC and Russia, along with some other oil exporters, are looking to create a “supergroup of oil-producing countries.” The “supergroup” led by Saudi Arabia and Russia would provide a framework to manage the oil market post-2018. There is fear that the end of the current agreement later this year would result in all-out pumping that would crash oil prices once again.
The recent surge in US shale oil production complicates their plans but also makes cooperation beyond the current agreement all the more important . A world in which the US might be adding upwards of 1 million b/d of new supply in a single year is one in which OPEC’s control over output levels would be crucial to avoid another price collapse.
US Shale Oil Production: The EIA says that U.S. oil production also remained flat recently slowing the surge in oil production. Winter weather usually slows shale oil production especially in North Dakota so we can expect production increases will continue in the spring. The Energy Information Administration is saying US production could top 11 million b/d by the end of 2018, a year earlier than it had expected just a month ago.
Despite the fact that US oil production has topped 10 million b/d, approaching a record set in 1970, many investors in the companies driving the shale oil revolution are still waiting for their payday. Despite promises of focusing on shareholder returns this year, there is a divergence of strategies among the top shale companies. Reuters reports that an analysis of the top 15 largest independent shale companies finds that only five have started paying or raising quarterly dividends. Six of them have never paid a dividend or have not restored the cuts made since 2014. The remainder have kept their payouts steady.
EIA’s recently released Annual Energy Outlook 2018 Reference case projects that US shale oil production will increase through the early 2040s, when it will surpass 8.2 million b/d and account for nearly 70 percent of total US production. Tight oil production made up 54 percent of the US total in 2017. Many outside observers continue to express skepticism that the US can continue growing shale oil production for the next 25 years from the Permian Basin which is the only place the country that could potentially contain enough shale oil to support such levels of production.
Halliburton said last week that its earnings could be negatively impacted because of bottlenecks related to the supply of fracking sand used in shale drilling. Fracking sand is integral to growing shale production, as more and more sand is pumped down into newly drilled wells. Shale drillers have credited the heavy doses of sand with squeezing out more oil and gas from the average well. This claim is challenged by outside observers who say the additional sand may increase production for the first few weeks, but does not affect the amount of oil that will ultimately be recovered from a well.
Demand for fracking sand surged from 34 million tons in 2012 to 61.5 million tons in 2014, but fell in the ensuing years as drilling dried up when oil prices collapsed. Now fracking sand consumption is surpassing previous highs as drilling increases and more sand is being used in new wells. In 2018, fracking sand demand is expected to top 100 million tons, according to Rystad Energy. Much of the sand has come from places like Wisconsin, which produces “northern white sand” that is hard and round, helping to create porous fractures in shale wells. It is expensive, particularly because it has to be shipped by rail to Texas shale fields. The Financial Times reported that fracking sand could cost $120 per ton on at Texas well heads, triple what it costs at the mine in the northern U.S.
2. The Middle East & North Africa
Iran: Washington extended sanctions relief under the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement, keeping the deal intact for at least another several months. However, the Administration said it would issue no more such waivers as it negotiates a modified deal with European allies. The US Treasury Department, however, imposed new punitive actions not directly related to the nuclear deal. These new measures are meant to pressure Tehran over ongoing missile tests and a recent crackdown on Iranian protesters. In response to the new US sanctions, Tehran said it would retaliate against the new sanctions. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow would not support attempts by Washington to modify the Iran nuclear deal.
A review of the 14 days of the demonstrations that began on December 28th shows that there were at least 213 anti-government protests and 34 pro-regime rallies across 90 cities. The protests were caused by working-class grievances, and they swept through provincial cities and towns. The demonstrations were smaller than the massive marches that took place during the 2009 Green Movement.
Iran is being subjected to serious water shortages, much to the concern of officials who fear protests and civil strife if conditions do not improve. There is talk of rationing water in the capital, Tehran, one of the largest cities in the Middle East, because the usual autumn rains did not come. “God is always testing people with various kinds of disasters,” Ayatollah Ostadi, a member of the Supreme Council of Seminaries, said in a sermon in the holy city of Qom. “We ask God’s forgiveness for our sins through rain.”
Oil minister Zanganeh said in an interview that oil production for the West Karoun oilfields for the Iranian month of Dey, 161,000 b/d last year, was up to 305,000 b/d for the same period this January. He also said OPEC members are likely to stick to production limits through the end of 2018 and that Iran’s daily gas production at South Pars, the world’s largest gas field, has increased by 83 million cubic meters in the past year.
Iraq: Iraq’s oil production remained strong in January, averaging about 4.54 million b/d, roughly in line with the trend that rounded out 2017. Fields under control of the federal government produced 4.18 million b/d and those controlled by the autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government produced 368,000 b/d. Iraq has boosted refining activity in the past year by at least 60,000 b/d, thanks to a patchwork of Oil Ministry projects. The ministry also has undertaken a series of new refinery projects that would create over 1 million b/d of new capacity, including a tender for a refinery south of Mosul. International companies, however, have shown reluctance to invest due to the financial uncertainty associated with the country’s subsidized fuel market.
Iraqi oil minister Jabbar al-Luiebi visited Turkey last week to discuss the future of the Ceyhan-Kirkuk oil pipeline. Turkey and Iraq are warming to each other as the two nations seek to undermine the ability of factions within their Kurdish minorities to further claims for an independent state. Baghdad wants all Iraqi oil shipments to be sold via the state marketer SOMO. Government requests to Kurdish authorities to restart exports through the pipeline connecting Ceyhan directly have been ignored.
Saudi Arabia: Aramco has considered the possibility of shipping US crude via its Motiva unit to Asia, decided that for the time being the option is economically unviable, but could reconsider in the future. Such a sale would be unprecedented, and a potential strategy by the Middle East nation in the face of rising US production.
A key facet of Saudi governance has been the allocation of oil revenues to the population in exchange for loyalty to the ruling Saud clan. However, a key weakness of the Vision 2030 renewal plan is its lack of focus on the potential political consequences of economic reforms. The plan seems to assume that its ramifications will be easily borne by the Saudi population. The IMF, however, says that the failure of the reforms to produce economic growth and private sector jobs for Saudis may lead either to rising unemployment and social pressures or increased public employment. If the government becomes unable to sustain its current level of payouts to the population, this will almost certainly result in rising dissent. So far the government has been able to keep the lid on through tough security measures, but the country is entering a stage of major economic reforms that will produce new stresses.
Speculation continues about who will be the ultimate buyer of the five percent share of Saudi Aramco. As political and economic uncertainties mount in Saudi Arabia, and oil prices continue to remain relatively low, there is the question as to whether the Saudi Aramco IPO would be viable. While courted by Western stock exchanges because of the unprecedented size of a possible IPO, it is possible that a direct sale to a Chinese consortium would serve the objectives of both the PRC and Saudi Arabia. The Saudis would not have to disclose as much about the operation of the company, and it would increase Beijing’s ability to push for oil to be priced in the renminbi. It even could have broader strategic implications including giving the Chinese some sort of preferred access to Saudi crude.
The Trump administration is looking at selling nuclear reactors to Saudi Arabia despite the kingdom’s refusal to accept the most stringent restrictions against the proliferation of nuclear weapons. US officials say a deal with the Saudis could open a new market worth tens of billions of dollars. Russia, South Korea, and China are also competing for the business. The Saudi Arabian resistance to the toughest proliferation controls—a ban on enriching uranium or reprocessing spent fuel—already is stirring concern among US lawmakers. Saudi Arabia has hired an international law firm specializing in energy regulation in its efforts to extract a favorable agreement on civil nuclear cooperation from the United States.
Libya: Libya’s National Oil Corporation has evacuated its workers from the 90,000 b/d El Feel oil field amid threats from the field’s guards who are locked in a pay dispute with the company. The guards are from the Petroleum Facilities Guards group that held all of Libya’s oil export terminals under a blockade for more than a year until September 2016. There has also been talk about a wider disruption to oil production which might affect Libya’s largest oilfield—Sharara—which can produce 300,000 bpd of crude.
3. China
China and other countries in Southeast Asia are helping erase the LNG glut, which was thought to last well into the next decade. Beijing is making an aggressive push to scrap coal burning, particularly in smoggy cities, replacing home coal furnaces with natural gas. The effort has been so successful, arguably too successful, that there have been natural gas shortages this winter. At the start of 2017, there was an estimated 340 million tons of annual LNG export capacity around the world, up by more than a quarter since 2012. But all of the new capacity helped crash prices. At the start of 2014, for instance, spot LNG prices in Asia were about $20/MMBtu. A year later, spot cargoes were down by two thirds.
The surge in demand since China began switching from coal to natural gas in many eastern cities has been spectacular. In 2017, there was a 46 percent increase in LNG imports into China as it became apparent that domestic production could not keep up with demand. Analysts are saying that there is little likelihood of another 46-percent jump in imports in 2018. The critical factor for another large increase would be the speed at which China can build LNG storage facilities. China has plans in place to expand its underground gas storage capacity to 15 billion cubic meters by 2020 and raise this further to more than 30 billion by 2030. Right now however, China lacks sufficient capacity to buy and store LNG during the summer, when demand is the weakest and prices the lowest, and use the LNG in the winter during peak demand as the fuel is mainly used for heating and industrial activity.
China will exceed US nuclear power production “soon” due to recent initiatives by Beijing to accelerate adoption of nuclear power as a substitute or addition to coal powered generation stations. Beijing’s total capacity may also surpass that of the European Union, “Today there are about 60 nuclear power plants under construction around the world, and more than one-third of them are in China. As a result, we’ll soon see China overtaking the United States as the number 1 nuclear power in the world.”
4. Russia
Moscow’s economy may come to feel a negative impact from the OPEC-led oil production cut deal, the Russian central bank warned last week. The bank added that it expected GDP growth during the first quarter of the year to stand at 0.4 percent on a quarterly basis and rise to 0.5 percent quarter-on-quarter in April-June. Russia agreed to cut 300,000 b/d from its post-Soviet record-high oil production of over 11.2 million b/d in November 2016, to aid efforts by OPEC and other exporters to relieve a global glut that sank prices to less than $40 a barrel.
Russia’s much-hyped Yamal LNG in the Arctic Circle opened in December 2017. Despite difficult permafrost conditions and financial limitations imposed by US sanctions, Yamal LNG was finished on time and on budget. The project’s website praises the plant’s unique location as an opportunity for flexible and competitive logistics which will enable year-round energy supplies to the Asia-Pacific and European markets. Yamal LNG’s delivery flexibility, however, is constrained by conditions in the Arctic. Between December and April, the Northern Sea Route connecting the Yamal Peninsula and the Asia-Pacific is closed, forcing shipments toward Europe.
Turkey has yet to issue a permit for Russia’s Gazprom to start building the land-based part of the TurkStream gas pipeline, stoking fears the strategically important project will be delayed. If completed, the $8.6 billion pipeline would allow Russia to reduce its reliance on Ukraine as a transit route for its gas supplies to Europe. Ankara has authorized Gazprom, which has a de facto monopoly on Russian gas exports by pipeline, to start building two undersea sections of the project. However, it has still not given Gazprom permission for the land-based segment to ship Russian gas onward to southern Europe.
5. Nigeria
There is no end in sight for the Nigerian fuel crisis, which began in November 2017. Most filling stations are out of fuel despite claims by the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, NNPC, that it increased its allocations to meet growing demands. Nigeria requires 625,000 b/d of gasoline imports daily. The state-run company says it is taking action to “increase supply and replenish strategic reserves,” by offering more favorable terms for existing fuel swap arrangements. The NNPC is the nation’s only gasoline importer, and its Direct Sale-Direct Purchase program is failing to bring in adequate fuel supplies. The program, which trades about 800,000 b/d of crude in return for refined products, is due to be renewed in April.
The endless corruption probes roll on. An ad-hoc committee of the House of Representatives began yet another probe into the alleged loss of crude oil in Nigeria worth $21 billion. The House had directed the committee to investigate the debts owed to indigenous companies by International Oil Companies which many claim are not being paid. Several years ago, the government brought in a US accounting firm to trace the allegedly missing money. The firm reported that lack of cooperation by government officials and bad record keeping made it impossible to trace all the oil revenues the country has received.
Tension is brewing again in Ogoni ethnic nationality of Rivers State following the insistence by Movement for the Survival of Ogoni People that the people of Ogoni have not yet allowed any oil company to resume exploration on their land. This came as some royal fathers in Ogoni endorsed RoboMichael Nigeria Limited to explore for oil. Twenty-five years ago Shell Petroleum Development Company abandoned Ogoni after a face-off with the host communities over environment degradations caused by oil exploration.
6. Venezuela
While some expect that Venezuela’s oil production could fall by another 700,000 b/d this year to the vicinity of 1 million b/d, a leading expert on the Venezuelan oil industry points out that much of the country’s current oil production is coming from joint ventures with international oil companies. These organizations do not have the same problems as PDVSA, in that the IOC’s are well run, do not face political pressures, have the money for necessary maintenance, and to feed and pay their workers. Given the presence of foreign oil companies, there may be a floor below which Venezuelan oil production will not sink unless there is a complete societal breakdown.
PDVSA has told its employees that they are not allowed to follow users on social media except for those officially authorized by the company. The ban came a few days after it emerged that PDVSA is losing workers by the thousands, with as many as 10,000 leaving the company in just one week of January. As of August 2016, there were 143,000 people working for PDVSA, but the number has dwindled significantly since then.
Venezuela’s government on Tuesday launched the world’s first sovereign cryptocurrency, the “petro”, to help its collapsing economy. The government is trying to sell $2.3 billion worth of the new form of money. Theoretically, the petro is backed by Venezuela’s reserves of precious metals like gold and crude oil; however, the petro does not give investors any ownership stake in Venezuelan oil. Most economists say the petro won’t solve Venezuela’s many problems, including food shortages, plummeting oil production, and a mass exodus.
The Aruba government said on Thursday it started talks with the US after Citgo Petroleum slowed work on an overhaul of the Caribbean island’s 235,000-barrel-per-day refinery due to a lack of credit. The lack of financing had delayed work to restart the idled refinery this year and to convert it into an oil upgrader, Citgo said earlier this week. Some 600 local workers who had been hired to work on the overhaul have lost their jobs.
7. The Briefs (selections from the press – date of article in Peak Oil News is in parentheses – see more here: news.peak-oil.org)
Norway’s $1 trillion sovereign wealth fund, the world’s largest, will avoid investments in energy sources such as coal that are unlikely to be needed in a future low-carbon society. (2/24)
Offshore Norway, production from the Johan Sverdrup oil field in the North Sea is due to begin in 2019 and could peak at around 440,000 b/d. Phase 2 production, which is expected by 2022, could push total capacity to 660,000 b/d. (2/21)
Brent basket: On the back of its ever-evolving importance in global crude trading and pricing, Dated Brent itself is facing a period of evolution. The Brent basket is likely to see further additions beyond Troll in the coming years as production in the region continues to evolve. The largest projects in the North Sea particularly Norway’s huge Johan Sverdrup field, set to begin the first phase of production in late 2019 – are of a significantly different quality to the existing basket. Meanwhile, production at the light, sweet fields that currently make up the BFOE basket is continuing to fade.
BP on peak oil: Global demand for crude oil could peak in the next two decades, as renewables like solar power surge faster than expected to meet a greater share of the world’s energy needs, BP said Tuesday. The world’s appetite for oil and other liquid fuels could continue to grow until around 2035, hitting 110.3 million barrels a day—compared with 95 million barrels a day in 2015—before plateauing and falling off in the run-up to 2040, the British oil-and-gas giant said Tuesday in the main future scenario. (2/21)
BP on EVs: The emergence of self-driving electric cars and travel sharing are set to dent oil consumption by 2040, oil and gas giant BP said, forecasting a peak in demand for the first time. (2/21)
Russia’s oil production in the Arctic will reach peak levels in the 2020s, head of the state commission on natural resources Igor Shpurov said. Over 2017, he said, Russia produced in the Arctic about 76 million tons of oil, and the production would be growing to 2026 hitting a record of 122 million tons a year. (2/16)
Italy’s energy company Eni said Friday its production in December reached an all-time high of 1.92 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, attributing much of its gain to offshore Egypt. Full-year production averaged 1.82 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, up 3.2 percent from 2016. (2/17)
Offshore Cyprus: Italy’s Eni has put on hold the activities of a drillship that had been preparing to explore for gas after a standoff with Turkish military vessels in the area. A diplomatic solution to the dispute is being sought. The confrontation comes after Eni and its partner Total made a major gas find offshore Cyprus with the Calypso well, which reignited tensions with Turkey that believes its citizens in northern Cyprus have an equal right to the island’s offshore resources. (2/23)
Cyprus update: five vessels from the Turkish Navy have stopped a drillship commissioned by an Italian company to drill in the waters offshore Cyprus. The Cyprus News Agency reported the Saipem 12000 drillship commissioned by Eni was stopped Friday morning as it tried to reach its drilling location in the Mediterranean Sea. (2/24)
Turkey has yet to issue a permit for Russia’s Gazprom to start building the land-based part of the TurkStream gas pipeline, three sources familiar with the matter said, stoking fears the strategically important project will be delayed. If completed, the $8.6 billion pipeline would allow Russia to reduce its reliance on Ukraine as a transit route for its gas supplies to Europe. (2/21)
S&P Global Platts released a blockchain-based product that will allow market participants to submit weekly inventory oil storage data to the United Arab Emirates’ Fujairah Oil Industry Zone (FOIZ) and the relevant regulator, FEDcom. The system provides a fully auditable trail of the reported data. (2/23)
Kazakhstan’s giant Kashagan oil field is achieving new production highs every month and has done better than 300,000 b/d, but development beyond the current phase is likely to be in small steps. Shell said there were still reliability issues with the first phase, which started producing in 2016 after more than $50 billion of investment and multiple delays and has a target of 370,000 b/d. (2/23)
Kazakhstan aims to increase crude and gas condensate production by nearly 25% to 2.15 million b/d by 2025, according to the country’s development strategy released Tuesday. The mid-term increase in the output will be underpinned by the development of the giant Kashagan oil field in the Caspian Sea and the future expansion of the Tengiz project, The output forecast is based on the assumption of a Brent oil price of $55. The country’s production amounted to 1.73 million b/d in 2017. (2/21)
In India, high refinery runs and expanding refining capacity amid a strong recovery in demand pushed India’s crude oil imports to a record 4.93 million b/d in January 2018, up by double digits compared to both December 2017 (+12.5%) and January 2017 (+13.6%), according to data compiled by Thomson Reuters Oil Research & Forecasts. (2/17)
India is expected to account for 30-40 percent of overall demand growth for energy in the next two decades. India’s oil demand alone is expected to increase from about 4.4 million b/d in 2016 to about 9.7 million by 2040. One of the key drivers of this demand is the projected five-fold increase in the number of cars in India. Saudi Arabia can bet on India not only to postpone the date for ‘peak demand’ but also to underwrite robust growth in demand for oil. (2/23)
Singapore will introduce a tax on emissions of S$5.00 per ton of carbon dioxide equivalent ($3.80/tCO2e) from 2019. The move was announced in the country’s budget on Monday and will apply to all facilities producing more than 25,000 tons of greenhouse gas emissions per year. (2/21)
Panamanian Canal: As the market embarks on a second year of record LNG exports from the Atlantic Basin and strong competition from Asia for those volumes, a potential choke point is emerging: the Panama Canal. The canal can handle just one LNG vessel a day, laden or ballast, and only during daylight hours. The vessel transit restriction will be in place until October 2018 when capacity is expected to double to two vessels a day. (2/17)
In Mexico, the front-runner in its presidential race would hit the brakes on the rapid pace of private investment in the country’s newly opened oil-and-gas sector if he wins the July election, a key adviser to Andrés Manuel López Obrador says. An administration led by Obrador, a leftist nationalist, would freeze the oil auction process at least until some “successful” results are seen from the first exploration and production blocks tendered in 2015. (2/24)
Mexico is the newest, and first Latin American, country to join the IEA. (2/20)
Mexican first: Six months after bursting on to the Mexican stock market with the third-biggest initial public offering since 2015 and the promise to become a Latin American energy champion, Vista Oil & Gas has sealed its first acquisition and is planning an aggressive 400-well drilling program in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale formation. A recent purchase give Vista production of 27,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day and a swath of Vaca Muerta acreage which Vista aims to bring into production next year. (2/20)
Canada’s National Energy Board has given Kinder Morgan the go-ahead to start construction work on a tunnel entrance in British Columbia’s Burnaby Mountain that will be part of the Trans Mountain oil pipeline expansion. Though this is a rare piece of good news for Kinder Morgan in the Trans Mountain saga, it does not mean that the pipeline construction will soon begin. (2/17)
U.S.’s SPR sales: Even with planned sales from its Strategic Petroleum Reserves, the US can still meet its obligations to cover an import shortage, the government said. A section of the spending bill signed by US President Donald Trump this month called for the sale of barrels from the SPR. (2/23)
US gasoline consumption has leveled off as the stimulus provided by low and falling oil prices between 2014 and 2016 has faded, so refiners are increasingly turning to diesel and customers in emerging markets. US gasoline consumption is forecast to rise by just 40,000 b/d in 2018, after remaining essentially unchanged last year, according to the US Energy Information Administration. (2/21)
Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP) loaded the first supertanker with US crude oil and it set sail from the Gulf Coast on route to Asia. The LOOP is the only US port capable of fully loading a very large crude carrier — a supertanker capable of carrying around 2 million barrels of oil — and the first outbound super-vessel from that port now steps up the United States’ competitiveness in crude oil sales overseas. The port is expected to reduce shipping costs, thus making US exports more attractive, especially on long-haul routes to the markets in Asia. (2/21)
Pipeline permit nixed: A federal judge in Louisiana revoked a permit for Energy Transfer Partners’ Bayou Bridge crude oil pipeline, halting work on a portion of the project following protests by local and environmental groups. The decision by US District Judge Shelly Dick in Baton Rouge underscores the growing clashes between energy pipeline operators expanding operations to accommodate new oil and gas flows from US shale fields and environmentalists concerned about spills and other hazards. (2/24)
ExxonMobil is close to issuing a final approval of a major expansion of its Beaumont refinery complex in Texas that could make it the largest crude oil processing plant in the US. The Beaumont Refinery currently has the capacity to process 365,000 b/d. Exxon has estimated the total post-expansion capacity for the Beaumont refinery to be between 700,000 and 850,000 b/d. The current largest refinery in the U.S., Motiva’s Port Arthur refinery in Texas, has a crude processing capacity of more than 600,000 b/d. (2/23)
Biofuels showdown? US President Donald Trump has called a meeting early this week with key senators and Cabinet officials to discuss potential changes to biofuels policy. This move was occasioned by a Pennsylvania refiner blaming the biofuels regulation for its bankruptcy. The meeting comes as the oil industry and corn lobby clash over the future of the Renewable Fuel Standard, a decades-old regulation that requires refiners to cover the cost of mixing biofuels such as corn-based ethanol into their fuel. (2/23)
Trump vs. court: A US court temporarily blocked the Trump administration from delaying or ending an Obama-era rule aimed at preventing oil and gas leaks during production, according to court documents, marking the fourth time either Congress or the courts have upheld the rule’s implementation. (2/24)
Methane madness? The evidence is now overwhelming that natural gas is not part of the climate solution, it is part of the problem. A new study finds that the methane escaping from Pennsylvania’s oil and gas industry “causes the same near-term climate pollution as 11 coal-fired power plants.” And that is “five times higher than what oil and gas companies report” to the state, according to analysis from the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) based on 16 peer-reviewed studies. (2/22)
The natural gas industry may be one of its own worst enemies. Most energy executives underestimate how much they can cut emissions as they extract and transport natural gas, according to a survey by the Energy Institute. Producers can reduce greenhouse gas flows by 75 percent simply by improving practices in the supply chain of the fuel, which consists mainly of methane. About half of that can be cut at no net cost. (2/21)
“No” in New England: Massachusetts officials thought they were close to securing future supplies of green energy by piping in hydroelectric power from Canada. But a week after Massachusetts said yes to the $1.6 billion project, neighboring New Hampshire said no, jeopardizing the 192-mile transmission line that would bring in the electricity through the Granite State. The rejection earlier this month marked the latest example of how hard it is to build large energy infrastructure in New England. (2/24)
RE and the grid: In a new paper, which appears in Renewable Energy, the researchers outline several solutions to making clean power reliable enough for all energy sectors—transportation; heating and cooling; industry; and agriculture, forestry, and fishing—in 20 world regions after all sectors have converted to 100 percent clean, renewable energy. The present study examines ways to keep the grid stable while meeting that goal. (2/19)
Solar strong? Government mandates should keep US solar power growing, despite new Trump administration tariffs on imported solar panels that are poised to raise prices. While the tariffs may slow the rate of solar expansion, local and state policies requiring utilities to procure renewable energy will continue to help create a baseline market for solar power, particularly for large, utility-scale projects. The Trump administration tariffs —30 percent in the first year, declining to 15 percent by the fourth—will raise the price of foreign-made solar panels and cells. But technological improvements and cost savings in other areas are expected to help the industry at least partially offset the increases, utility executives and analysts say. (2/21)
Floating wind farm: Norway’s Statoil said a floating wind farm in Scottish waters shows promise for deepwater installations. During its first three months in service, the company’s Hywind Scotland floating wind farm, the first of its kind, was put to the test and performed better than expected. Hurricane Ophelia in October pummeled the wind farm with 80 mile-per-hour winds and 100 mph winds with 26-foot waves were recorded two months later during Storm Caroline. Hywind closes down during the worst weather and automatically comes back on stream when conditions improve. (2/17)
Fitch on EVs: Greater product awareness and technological changes could fast-track the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) that could plausibly lead to a peak oil demand before 2030, Fitch Ratings said on Tuesday. Although this is not the rating agency’s core scenario for EVs growth and market penetration, Fitch warned that EVs adoption is nevertheless “an increasing threat to oil demand.” (2/21)
Self-driving vehicles: If you’re wondering why it’s taking so long for car makers to offer full autonomy, as in eye-free driving, one clue is in the amount of data required to make driverless vehicles work safely. The amounts of digital information that need to be produced and then shared in real time are absolutely staggering. Vehicles will generate and consume, and in some cases transmit roughly 40 terabytes of data for every eight hours of driving. Cameras alone will generate 20 to 40 Mbps, and the radar will generate between 10 and 100 Kbps, Intel says. Each car driving on the road will generate about as much data as 3,000 people currently do. (2/24) [Question: how much electricity will this consume?]
AZ’s breakthrough: Waymo, a unit of Alphabet, is set to launch a ride-sharing service similar to Uber, but with no human driver behind the wheel. Officials in Arizona granted Waymo a permit to operate as a transportation network company across the state on January 24th. The imminent release of a robotic fleet of fully autonomous Chrysler Pacifica minivans could be flooding the highways of Arizona, causing major headaches for Uber. (2/21)
Climate quandary: Climate change doesn’t care about politics. Or economics. Or public sentiment about science. In December, an analysis showed the most accurate climate-science models to date predicted dire effects in future years. Now, two more grim assessments have arrived. A draft report prepared by a United Nations panel says the planet has a very high risk of passing the 1.5-degree C temperature increase by 2040 that scientists say is the limit before dire effects are seen. (2/24)
For the cost of an iPhone, you can now buy a wind turbine that can power an entire house for lifetime
Indian startup Avant Garde Innovations has developed a low-cost wind turbine that can generate 3-5 kW hours of electricity daily
By Sainul Abudheen K
http://educateinspirechange.org/nature/environment/cost-iphone-can-now-buy-wind-turbine-can-power-entire-house-lifetime/
For the cost of an iPhone, you can now buy a wind turbine that can power an entire house for lifetime
Indian startup Avant Garde Innovations has developed a low-cost wind turbine that can generate 3-5 kW hours of electricity daily
By Sainul Abudheen K
http://educateinspirechange.org/nature/environment/cost-iphone-can-now-buy-wind-turbine-can-power-entire-house-lifetime/
water wheel generator
Yeah, I never thought of this analogy, but it could yield the same result in that the dangerous materials are neutralized in both examples of burning the wood or the crystallization within the rollie pollie [pill bug].
Thanks for your interest and contribution,
sumi
Pawpaw Trees
Also called Indiana banana, American custard apple, banango
Pawpaw trees (Asimina triloba) are native to North America, growing wild in much of the eastern and Midwest portions of the United States. The foliage is the sole food source for the Zebra Swallowtail Caterpillar, and the butterflies are attracted to pawpaw trees as a result. Deer, on the other hand, are not interested in eating the leaves of pawpaw trees. The trees produce tropical-like fruit with unique and delicious vanilla or banana/mango flavors. The pawpaw is surprisingly uncommon despite its native status. A ripe pawpaw has a short shelf life, making it difficult to sell at farmer’s markets or grocery stores; and the trees are tricky to transplant because of their delicate feeder roots. When choosing pawpaw trees, look for varieties that are grown in containers like Stark® EZ Start® pots that will ensure a larger root mass for successful planting.
Zone Compatibility
Your climate plays an important role in whether an pawpaw tree will produce fruit or even survive. Before ordering a tree, make sure its recommended hardiness zone range includes your area. Our pawpaw trees grow well in zones 4-8, which covers most of the country.
Proper Pollination
Pollination by a different variety is key to the success of pawpaw trees. Often, its absence is why trees produce poorly or don’t bear fruit. All of our pawpaw trees require the presence of a second pawpaw tree for proper fruit production.
https://www.starkbros.com/products/fruit-trees/pawpaw-trees
Bizarre Foods Chuños (Bolivia Nov 2007)
Question: Where does it go once they absorb it?
"They take in heavy metals like lead and cadmium and crystallize these ions in their guts. The heavy metal toxins are then made into spherical deposits in the mid gut. With this special cleanup property, pill bugs survive where most creatures can't, in the most contaminated sites."
"Crystallization is a technique that has long been used in the purification of substances."
When the rollie pollie expels these crystallized deposits, they have been neutralized or cleaned up; they are no longer a danger to soil.
sumisu
PS: Thanks for asking; I had to resort to my high school chemistry to explain the answer to your question.
'The Dirt Cure:' Why Human Health Depends on Soil Health
February 28, 2018
Organic Consumers Association
by Julie Wilson
https://www.organicconsumers.org/blog/dirt-cure-why-human-health-depends-soil-health
'Rollie pollies' remove heavy metals from soil, stabilizing growing conditions, protecting groundwater
Friday, March 20, 2015 by: Lance Johnson
https://www.naturalnews.com/049190_rollie_pollies_heavy_metals_soil_remediation.html
ITEMS FOR REPAIRING OR MAKING SOCKS
Darning Egg
https://tinyurl.com/yc6ls3ju
Sock Loom Original
https://tinyurl.com/ydxhmqva
20 Things You Will Need To Survive When The Economy Collapses And The Next Great Depression Begins
By Michael Snyder, on April 29th, 2010
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/20-things-you-will-need-to-survive-when-the-economy-collapses-and-the-next-great-depression-begins
Today, millions of Americans say that they believe that the United States is on the verge of a major economic collapse and will soon be entering another Great Depression. But only a small percentage of those same people are prepared for that to happen. The sad truth is that the vast majority of Americans would last little more than a month on what they have stored up in their homes. Most of us are so used to running out to the supermarket or to Wal-Mart for whatever we need that we never even stop to consider what would happen if suddenly we were not able to do that. Already the U.S. economy is starting to stumble about like a drunken frat boy. All it would take for the entire U.S. to resemble New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina would be for a major war, a terror attack, a deadly pandemic or a massive natural disaster to strike at just the right time and push the teetering U.S. economy over the edge. So just how would you survive if you suddenly could not rely on the huge international corporate giants to feed, clothe and supply you and your family? Do you have a plan?
Unless you already live in a cave or you are a complete and total mindless follower of the establishment media, you should be able to see very clearly that our society is more vulnerable now than it ever has been. This year there have been an unprecedented number of large earthquakes around the world and volcanoes all over the globe are awakening. You can just take a look at what has happened in Haiti and in Iceland to see how devastating a natural disaster can be. Not only that, but we have a world that is full of lunatics in positions of power, and if one of them decides to set off a nuclear, chemical or biological weapon in a major city it could paralyze an entire region. War could erupt in the Middle East at literally any moment, and if it does the price of oil will double or triple (at least) and there is the possibility that much of the entire world could be drawn into the conflict. Scientists tell us that a massive high-altitude EMP (electromagnetic pulse) blast could send large portions of the United States back to the stone age in an instant. In addition, there is the constant threat that the outbreak of a major viral pandemic (such as what happened with the 1918 Spanish Flu) could kill tens of millions of people around the globe and paralyze the economies of the world.
But even without all of that, the truth is that the U.S. economy is going to collapse. So just think of what will happen if one (or more) of those things does happen on top of all the economic problems that we are having.
Are you prepared?
The following is a list of 20 things you and your family will need to survive when the economy totally collapses and the next Great Depression begins….
#1) Storable Food
Food is going to instantly become one of the most valuable commodities in existence in the event of an economic collapse. If you do not have food you are not going to survive. Most American families could not last much longer than a month on what they have in their house right now. So what about you? If disaster struck right now, how long could you survive on what you have? The truth is that we all need to start storing up food. If you and your family run out of food, you will suddenly find yourselves competing with the hordes of hungry people who are looting the stores and roaming the streets looking for something to eat.
Of course you can grow your own food, but that is going to take time. So you need to have enough food stored up until the food that you plant has time to grow. But if you have not stored up any seeds you might as well forget it. When the economy totally collapses, the remaining seeds will disappear very quickly. So if you think that you are going to need seeds, now is the time to get them.
#2) Clean Water
Most people can survive for a number of weeks without food, but without water you will die in just a few days. So where would you get water if the water suddenly stopped flowing out of your taps? Do you have a plan? Is there an abundant supply of clean water near your home? Would you be able to boil water if you need to?
Besides storing water and figuring out how you are going to gather water if society breaks down, another thing to consider is water purification tablets. The water you are able to gather during a time of crisis may not be suitable for drinking. So you may find that water purification tablets come in very, very handy.
#3) Shelter
You can’t sleep on the streets, can you? Well, some people will be able to get by living on the streets, but the vast majority of us will need some form of shelter to survive for long. So what would you do if you and your family lost your home or suddenly were forced from your home? Where would you go?
The best thing to do is to come up with several plans. Do you have relatives that you can bunk with in case of emergency? Do you own a tent and sleeping bags if you had to rough it? If one day everything hits the fan and you and your family have to “bug out” somewhere, where would that be? You need to have a plan.
#4) Warm Clothing
If you plan to survive for long in a nightmare economic situation, you are probably going to need some warm, functional clothing. If you live in a cold climate, this is going to mean storing up plenty of blankets and cold weather clothes. If you live in an area where it rains a lot, you will need to be sure to store up some rain gear. If you think you may have to survive outdoors in an emergency situation, make sure that you and your family have something warm to put on your heads. Someday after the economy has collapsed and people are scrambling to survive, a lot of folks are going to end up freezing to death. In fact, in the coldest areas it is actually possible to freeze to death in your own home. Don’t let that happen to you.
#5) An Axe
Staying along the theme of staying warm, you may want to consider investing in a good axe. In the event of a major emergency, gathering firewood will be a priority. Without a good tool to cut the wood with that will be much more difficult.
#6) Lighters Or Matches
You will also want something to start a fire with. If you can start a fire, you can cook food, you can boil water and you can stay warm. So in a true emergency situation, how do you plan to start a fire? By rubbing sticks together? Now is the time to put away a supply of lighters or matches so that you will be prepared when you really need them.
In addition, you may want to consider storing up a good supply of candles. Candles come in quite handy whenever the electricity goes out, and in the event of a long-term economic nightmare we will all see why our forefathers relied on candles so much.
#7) Hiking Boots Or Comfortable Shoes
When you ask most people to list things necessary for survival, this is not the first or the second thing that comes to mind. But having hiking boots or very comfortable and functional shoes will be absolutely critical. You may very well find yourself in a situation where you and your family must walk everywhere you want to go. So how far do you think you will get in high heels? You will want footwear that you would feel comfortable walking in for hours if necessary. You will also want footwear that will last a long time, because when the economy truly collapses you may not be able to run out to the shoe store and get what you need at that point.
#8) A Flashlight And/Or Lantern
When the power goes off in your home, what is the first thing that you grab? Just think about it. A flashlight or a lantern of course. In a major emergency, a flashlight or a lantern is going to be a necessity – especially if you need to go anywhere at night.
Solar powered or “crank style” flashlights or lanterns will probably be best during a long-term emergency. If you have battery-powered units you will want to begin storing up lots and lots of batteries.
#9) A Radio
If a major crisis does hit the United States, what will you and your family want? Among other things, you will all want to know what in the world is going on. A radio can be an invaluable tool for keeping up with the news.
Once again, solar powered or “crank style” radios will probably work best for the long term. A battery-powered until would work as well – but only for as long as your batteries are able to last.
#10) Communication Equipment
When things really hit the fan you are going to want to communicate with your family and friends. You will also want to be able to contact an ambulance or law enforcement if necessary. Having an emergency cell phone is great, but it may or may not work during a time of crisis. The Internet also may or may not be available. Be sure to have a plan (whether it be high-tech or low-tech) for staying in communication with others during a major emergency.
#11) A Swiss Army Knife
If you have ever owned a Swiss Army knife you probably already know how incredibly handy they can be. It can be a very valuable and versatile tool. In a true survival situation, a Swiss Army knife can literally do dozens of different things for you. Make sure that you have at least one stored up for emergencies.
#12) Personal Hygiene Items
While these may not be absolute “essentials”, the truth is that life will get very unpleasant very quickly without them. For example, what would you do without toilet paper? Just think about it. Imagine that you just finished your last roll of toilet paper and now you can’t get any more. What would you do?
The truth is that soap, toothbrushes, toothpaste, shampoo, toilet paper and other hygiene products are things that we completely take for granted in society today. So what would happen if we could not go out and buy them any longer?
#13) A First Aid Kit And Other Medical Supplies
One a more serious note, you may not be able to access a hospital or a doctor during a major crisis. In your survival supplies, be absolutely certain that you have a good first aid kit and any other medical supplies that you think you may need.
#14) Extra Gasoline
There may come a day when gasoline is rationed or is simply not available at all. If that happens, how will you get around? Be certain to have some extra gasoline stored away just in case you find yourself really needing to get somewhere someday.
#15) A Sewing Kit
If you were not able to run out and buy new clothes for you and your family, what would you do? Well, you would want to repair the clothes that you have and make them last as long as possible. Without a good sewing kit that will be very difficult to do.
#16) Self-Defense Equipment
Whether it is pepper spray to fend off wild animals or something more “robust” to fend off wild humans, millions of Americans will one day be thankful that they have something to defend themselves with.
#17) A Compass
In the event of a major emergency, you and your family may find yourselves having to be on the move. If you are in a wilderness area, it will be very hard to tell what direction you are heading without a compass. It is always a good idea to have at least one compass stored up.
#18) A Hiking Backpack
If you and your family suddenly have to “bug out”, what will you carry all of your survival supplies in? Having a good hiking backpack or “survival bag” for everyone in your family is extremely important. If something happened in the city where you live and you suddenly had to “go”, what would you put your most important stuff in? How would you carry it all if you had to travel by foot? These are very important things to think about.
#19) A Community
During a long-term crisis, it is those who are willing to work together that will have the best chance of making it. Whether it is your family, your friends, a church or a local group of people that you know, make sure that you have some people that you can rely on and work together with in the event that everything hits the fan. Loners are going to have a really hard time of surviving for long.
#20) A Backup Plan
Lastly, it is always, always, always important to have a backup plan for everything.
If someone comes in and steals all the food that you have stored up, what are you going to do?
If travel is restricted and your can’t get to your “bug out” location immediately do you have a Plan B?
If you have built your house into an impregnable survival fortress but circumstances force you to leave do you have an alternate plan?
The truth is that crisis situations rarely unfold just as we envision. It is important to be flexible and to be ready with backup plans when disaster strikes.
You don’t want to end up like the folks in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina. You don’t want to have to rely on the government to take care of you if something really bad happens.
Right now the U.S. strategic grain reserve contains only enough wheat to make half a loaf of bread for each of the approximately 300 million people in the United States.
How long do you think that is going to last?
Now is the time to get ready.
Now is the time to prepare.
The United States economy is going to collapse and incredibly hard times are coming.
Will you be able to survive when it happens?
Wendell Berry: A Strong Voice For Local Farming and the Land
For six decades, writer Wendell Berry has spoken out in defense of local agriculture, rural communities, and the importance of caring for the land. In an interview with Yale Environment 360, he talks about his Kentucky farm, his activism, and why he remains hopeful for the future.
By Roger Cohn • March 6, 2014
https://e360.yale.edu/features/interview_wendell_berry_a_strong_voice_for_local_farming_and_the_land
New Study Shows Organic Farming Traps Carbon in Soil to Combat Climate Change
Organic farms were found to have 26 percent more long-term carbon storage potential than conventional farms.
By Lela Nargi
09.11.17
https://civileats.com/2017/09/11/new-study-shows-organic-farming-traps-carbon-in-soil-to-combat-climate-change/
No dig with Charles Dowding, showing his fourth summer at Homeacres
Charles Dowding
Published on Jul 30, 2016
Yeah, it is mangel beets!
Sugar and Fodder Beets for Stock and Sucrose
Presented by Erik Andrus Reviewed by Adam Dole
https://www.nofamass.org/articles/2013/10/sugar-and-fodder-beets-stock-and-sucrose
Yeah, I do the P & P [prayer and planning] at night too. It adds awareness and reality to the bookends of life.
I might be adding a heating pad just to warm up the bed when I get under the covers. But I would turn it off while sleeping.
I moved some figs trees on to the porch and only started some greens.
I water my seedlings with melted snow water.
Good luck with beginning your seeds!
'Very, very scary': This mammoth new shale drilling method is about to supersize the future of fracking
'Cube development,' which taps multiple layers of shale all at once, could accelerate the U.S. shale boom and make the global supply glut even worse
Bloomberg News
Alex Nussbaum
February 23, 2018
10:35 AM EST
http://business.financialpost.com/commodities/energy/permians-mammoth-cubes-herald-supersized-future-for-shale-1
Peak Oil Review: 13 February 2018
By Tom Whipple, originally published by ASPO-USA
February 13, 2018
http://www.resilience.org/stories/2018-02-13/peak-oil-review-13-february-2018/
Quote of the Week
“I am resolved that not a single drop from Trump’s new oil plan ever makes landfall in California.” Lt. Governor Gavin Newsom, chair of the State Lands Commission and a Democratic candidate for governor (2/8)
Graphic of the Week
1. Oil and the Global Economy
It was a volatile week with stock markets crashing and oil prices falling by nearly $7 a barrel from recent highs. Behind the price collapse was a stronger dollar, the break in the equity markets, ever increasing US shale oil production, and an unexpectedly large jump in the rig count the week before last. At Friday’s close New York oil futures were slightly below $60 a barrel and London’s Brent was not far behind at $62.79. With the Brent/WTI price spread below $3 a barrel, there will be less incentive to buy US crude when shipping costs are considered.
After two months of steady oil price increases, many observers were talking about oil continuing to climb to $80 or even $100 a barrel, although a few were saying that price was in a speculative bubble not supported by fundamentals. Last week the CEO of France’s Total told the papers that the supply-demand balance is still delicate and there is nothing that guarantees oil prices will stay in the vicinity of $70 a barrel. Even before last week’s price crash, Total was looking at the possibility that oil would soon be back to $50 a barrel.
Analysts are starting to talk about the possibility that the Brent benchmark for world prices will not last much longer. As production from the North Sea declines, Brent has been redefined to include a blend of oil from five different fields. All of these fields are well past their peaks, and the original Brent field is now producing only 20,000 tons per year. The next step will probably include the newly opened Norwegian Johan Sverdrup field. As US production surges, some are saying that WTI should become the global benchmark, now that it can be freely exported. The opening of a Chinese oil futures exchange next month is complicating the problem of what is the proper world oil price benchmark.
The OPEC Production Cut: With the next meeting to consider the production cut still several months away there has not been much news. Thanks to the collapse of Venezuelan oil production the cut is still keeping pressure on prices and until last week was considered a success. Most participants to the agreement were doing their part to keep production down and as oil prices and revenues increased there was little incentive to cheat on the quotas. Last week’s developments, however, could change the situation. If world prices fall into the $50s, several oil exporters will be in financial difficulty again. For now, there seems to be no end to how far Venezuelan production could collapse. Some are forecasting that Caracas could suffer another 600,000 – 700,000 b/d drop in production this year.
US Shale Oil Production: As total US oil production surges past 10 million b/d and, according to the EIA, on the way to 11 million later this year, many voices are starting to call this rapid production increase a bubble that will not last for long. In January the EIA estimated that the US would surpass 10 million b/d at some point in February. Recently published data shows that the US reached that milestone last November. The administration now says the US averaged 10.2 million b/d in January. On an annual basis, the US produced 9.3 million b/d in 2017. This is set to jump to 10.6 million b/d for 2018 and in 2019, the country is on course to produce 11.2 million b/d.
In recent months leaders of the shale oil industry came under pressure from their lenders and investors to concentrate on making a profit and not continue to increase production at a loss. It is becoming clearer that all vows of restraint were nothing but hot air and that the industry is continuing to increase production no matter what the cost. Last week’s $7 a barrel price drop is not going the help the situation.
If the EIA is even remotely correct, it seems there is little to stop US shale oil production from growing rapidly in the next two years. Only a complete collapse in prices to or below $40 a barrel will reverse the situation, but given continued growth of the global economy, and the growing troubles in the Middle East, this is unlikely to happen.
While few outside observers have trouble with the forecasts that US oil production could be over 11 million b/d in the next 18 months, many have serious disagreements with the EIA’s assertion that US oil production can remain close to this level into the 2040’s. In a recently released report, the Post Carbon Institute lays out the case in great detail as to why the government is seriously overestimating the potential of the US shale oil industry in the decades ahead.
The arguments put forth in the new study are familiar to all who have been following the shale oil industry. Shale oil wells typically see production deplete by 70 to 90 percent in the first three years; drilling is being concentrated in the most productive “sweet spots” that are unlikely to last for more than a few years; and most importantly, the EIA envisions production of oil that has not been discovered.
The Post Carbon Institute is not alone in its concerns that the EIA is seriously overestimating the long-term potential of the US shale industry. In recent months MIT and other organizations have issued reports expressing similar concerns about the EIA’s forecast. Even the EIA has admitted in response to questions that some of its forecasts are on shaky ground.
Given the current political atmosphere in the US, critics are likely to be ignored until obvious trouble comes such as falling production or much higher oil and gas prices.
2. The Middle East & North Africa
Iran: Oil Minister Zanganeh said Iran can quickly increase production of crude if OPEC decides to end the output agreement when the group meets in June. Daily production can be increased by at least 100,000 barrels within “five or six days.” The Minister said Iran is always adding to production levels, “from West Karoun and Azadegan,” in western Iran near the Iraq border.
Tehran says it will soon be selling liquefied natural gas to Baghdad. Iran has some of the largest deposits of natural gas in the world in its South Pars field, which it shares with Qatar. Iran is already sending piped natural gas to Iraq and beginning in late March 21, the official Islamic Republic News Agency says that exports of liquefied natural gas could start arriving in Iraq.
Syria/Iraq: In the last few weeks the level of violence in Syria has been increasing as the Syrian government with Russian help has stepped up attacks on the remaining rebel held areas. The Syrian war is a tangle of separate conflicts with a rotating cast of combatants. The collapse of the Islamic State’s caliphate last year has cleared the way for the war’s underlying conflicts to resurface with a vengeance. With so many foreign powers involved in Syria, there is great potential for misunderstandings and a wider conflict. Israeli airstrikes on Syrian and Iranian positions across Syria is an example of the troubles that may lie ahead.
Iraqi forces launched a security operation along a planned oil transit route to Iran on Wednesday, saying it was clearing and “destroying sleeper cells” in the mountainous border area where two armed groups operate. Iraqi oil officials announced in December plans to transport Kirkuk crude by truck to Iran’s Kermanshah refinery. The trucking was to start last week. While ISIS no longer holds much territory in the area, attacking convoys of oil trucks in mountainous terrain is not difficult for experienced insurgent groups.
Iraq is looking to attract $100 billion worth of foreign investment that would help it rebuild its oil refining and petrochemicals sectors and reconstruct crucial infrastructure. Ahead of a conference on Iraq’s reconstruction that will be held in Kuwait this week, Iraq’s National Investment Commission published a list of major strategic projects available for investment. Eighteen investment opportunities are being offered in the chemicals, petrochemicals, fertilizers, and refinery sectors. The US does not plan to contribute any money at the Kuwait conference to fund Iraq’s reconstruction, a move critics say could deal a new blow to American standing in the region.
Saudi Arabia: The Saudi government has started a campaign of damage control after the detention of some 350 of its wealthiest businessmen scared off the foreign investors the Saudis needs to diversify their economy and sell off 5 percent of Saudi Aramco.
Crown Prince bin Salman is planning a trip to France, the U.K. and the US later this month, during which he hopes to drum up foreign interest in billions of dollars in business opportunities, including in the aerospace, internet technologies and entertainment sectors.
There has been much discussion of Saudi Arabia’s relationship to the US Permian shale oil basin and whether the US has replaced the Saudis as the world’s “swing producer.” The Permian Basin has at least 500,000 b/d of spare production capacity; there could even be as much as 1 million, Nansen Saleri, former head of reservoir management at Saudi Aramco, told Bloomberg. Historically, Saudi Arabia has had the greatest spare capacity in the world, and usually kept 1.5-2 million b/d of spare capacity available for market management. According to Saleri, the Permian is capable of turning on the taps to respond to higher demand in three to four days, faster than any other field in the world — except for those operated by Saudi Aramco.
Libya: Libya’s oil production averaged more than 1 million b/d in January, for the first time topping the million-b/d-mark since July 2013. Economists at OPEC, of which Libya is a member, reported production last year averaged 817,000 b/d, far less than its Gadhafi-era level of around 1.5 million b/d. Despite the recent success, widespread corruption and injustice are getting dangerously close to strangling the Libyan oil industry. Theft of company property is rife, while communities seeking employment or payoffs resort to blockading oil fields, pipelines and export terminals.
Terrorists from the Islamic State tried to attack the Dhara oilfield last week, according to sources in the Libyan National Army. The army confronted the terrorists before the attack occurred, seizing a car that contained explosive belts and improvised explosive devices, the sources said. UK-based, Saudi-funded Asharq Al-Awsat said the news confirmed some information it had received from LNA sources last November that told of ISIS plans to strike targets in the Oil Crescent. A US Africa Command spokeswoman Robyn Mack said, “At the moment, we believe that ISIS-Libya is likely to give priority to the restructuring of security forces and infrastructure, and to launch strikes, which may include targets in the Libyan oil crescent.”
3. China
Crude imports hit another record last month, reaching 9.57 million b/d. This is 400,000 b/d more than the previous record from March last year. Natural gas imports also continued to rise, hitting 7.7 million tons – the second-highest monthly import rate on record. The increase in oil imports was driven by independent refiners who rushed to utilize their higher crude oil quotas that Beijing issued late last year. In addition, a pipeline from Russia began operating at an expanded capacity on January 1, which increased the flows of crude into the country. China’s demand for both oil and gas is usually higher ahead of the Spring Festival, which starts this week.
China has entered its first long-term contract to import US LNG, following a push by the Trump administration to open the market to US. suppliers. Cheniere Energy which has already exported LNG to China, said Friday it had signed two purchase agreements with China National Petroleum Corp. to export 1.2 million tons of LNG a year through 2043 from the US Gulf Coast.
China plans to launch its long-awaited crude oil futures contract on March 26, the country’s securities regulator said on Friday. This move could potentially shake up pricing of the world’s largest commodity market. The launch will mark the end of a years-long effort by the Chinese to create Asia’s first oil futures benchmark, and is aimed at giving China more clout in pricing crude sold to Asia as it could give the Shanghai International Energy Exchange, which will operate the new contract, a share of the trillions of dollars each year in oil futures trading.
While eastern and central China have been hit by heavy snow or even blizzards this winter, around Beijing only a few mountainous areas received a light sprinkling. Downtown, the very slight snow on Jan. 21 was barely noticeable. According to Beijing’s climate observatory, the city has recorded 108 consecutive days without “effective precipitation” since Oct. 23, 2017, the longest dry spell for ten years. The longest period without effective precipitation recorded by the station was 114 days between 1970 and 1971 nearly 50 years ago. Since November 2017, under the influence of the La Nina, the Siberian high pressure area and the East Asian trough have intensified, leading to colder air in northern China. However, the Subtropical high in the West Pacific is in a position which is not conducive to wet, warm air from China’s south moving northward to meet the cold air.
The unusually cold and, except for Beijing, snowy winter is continuing to cause problems across much of the country. China’s natural gas production is rising at the fastest pace in four years but that will not be enough to meet the demand for the fuel caused by a government program to raise gas usage in order to clean the country’s polluted air. Gas output in China rose to a record 147.4 billion cubic meters last year, up 8.5 percent from 2016 and gas production is forecast to climb by between 6 percent to 8 percent per year through 2020. But China’s war against smog has spawned voracious demand for the fuel that will keep it reliant on growing imports of liquefied natural gas or piped gas.
Work has resumed on the troubled Turkmenistan-China pipeline. This pipeline has a designed capacity of 25-30 billion cubic meters of gas per year and will become the fourth and last planned strand of a network of routes carrying the fuel from Turkmenistan to China. The project began in 2014 amid promises construction would be done within three years. However, media outlets last year reported that work had been suspended, leading them to speculate that the project would be cancelled. Once completed, the pipeline would put China in a position to import up to around 65 billion cubic meters of Turkmen gas annually.
China plans to increase its high-quality coal supply by allowing mines to boost capacity if they shut outdated production processes. Coal companies will be encouraged to close inefficient and polluting mines and replace them with larger ones if they meet certain standards, the National Development and Reform Commission said in a statement on Friday. Companies that agree to sign long-term contracts with power plants or to set up joint ventures with power companies will be allowed to expand their capacity by 130 percent to 300 percent. The NDRC would give those allowed to boost capacity less than a year to shut outdated production.
4. Russia
Moscow saw its heaviest snowfall in a day since records began, with more than 2,000 trees brought down and air travel disrupted, officials say. More than half the monthly average snow of 15 inches fell the week before last, beating the previous record from 1957. The Kremlin has always expressed little interest in climate change on the theory that warmer weather in its Arctic regions would be good for its economy.
The Saudis and the Russians are finding common ground on a number of issues besides the OPEC production freeze. The trigger for a rapprochement was a common enemy: US shale oil. The collapse in oil prices from 2014, as hydraulic fracturing unlocked a flood of US crude that caught other producers off guard, set their collaboration in motion as both countries were suffering from low oil prices. The low-oil-price-situation was enough to overcome the Saudi concerns about Russian meddling in Syria.
Last week the Saudi oil minister attended the inauguration of the $27 billion LNG plant on Moscow’s Arctic coast. The Russians are hoping that the Saudis will start importing their LNG and stop wasting so much valuable crude keeping cool in the summer.
For what it’s worth, the arrival of a tanker in Boston containing liquefied natural gas coming from the recently inaugurated Russian project grabbed a lot of media attention. The news stirred controversy over Russians skirting US sanctions and the US being unable to meet its own natural gas needs despite the American natural gas boom stemming from the shale revolution. In this case, the demand for natural gas became so high due to very cold weather that the pipelines supplying the region were unable to keep up with demand. The only recourse was the spot market which happened to have cargoes of Russian gas available.
With the best quality Russian oil now being piped to China, European importers are being left with the dregs. The quality of Russia’s Urals crude grade has deteriorated so much in recent months that some refiners are considering renegotiation of supplies and prices. The Urals grade exported to Europe is a blend of different oils, and that blending is taking place inside the pipeline system in Russia. The quality of the Urals blend that is being exported to Europe in February is near the bottom of the standard range set by the Russian government. “We can’t refine this oil,” a trader at a European company told Reuters. “There is only one way out, which is to cut Urals purchases and get supplies of lighter grades for blending.
5. Nigeria
The fuel shortage that has plagued Nigeria for the last two months continues to get worse. Insufficient supply of premium motor spirit (gasoline) has continued to compel many fuel stations in different parts of the country to ration the product causing queue of vehicles at retail stations to soar. The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation seems to have no ideas on any immediate solution other than to announce it will try to import more fuel. The scarcity has continued despite proclamations by the petroleum minister, President Muhammadu Buhari; the minister of state for petroleum, Ibe Kachikwu; the NNPC chief, Maikanti Baru; and other officials. A committee set up by the president and headed by Mr. Kachiwku has also failed to put an end to the crisis.
While the demand for aviation fuel continues to increase and is estimated to have reached one billion liters last year, 100 per cent dependence on fuel importation amid foreign exchange challenges met only half of the potential demand in 2017. Limited supply has pushed up the cost of fuel for local operators. To beat the shortage and cost, foreign airlines top up at Accra, Lomé, and Abidjan airports, after dispatching or picking up passengers in Nigeria.
6. Venezuela
Oil production continues to fall at a frightening clip, and was about 1.6-1.7 million b/d in December. On an annual basis, Barclays predicts that Venezuela’s output will fall from 2.18 million b/d in 2017 to just 1.43 million this year, a decline of roughly 700,000 b/d. Economists at the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said member state Venezuela produced on average 1.7 million barrels of oil per day in December, down from the 2016 average of around 2.1 million barrels of oil. Commodity pricing group S&P Global Platts reported January production from Venezuela declined another 60,000 barrels per day.
The steep declines will increasingly be felt worldwide given that oil demand is growing and the OPEC/non-OPEC coalition continues to keep 1.8 million b/d of supply off the market. Global inventories have declined so steeply that unexpected geopolitical surprises carry more influence than they used to.
PDVSA has restarted imports to its Isla Curacao facility after a seven-month hiatus as Venezuela tries to staunch the bleeding of its dwindling fuel output. The Isla refinery, capable of receiving VLCCs, is a hub for oil destined for the Asian market, but is struggling with a lack of crude oil to refine. PDVSA is due to receive two cargoes of American crude from China and two other vessels full of Russian Urals crude from Glencore in the coming weeks. PDVSA has agreed to barter fuel oil and heavy crude in exchange for the imported oil.
The US government is weighing the potential negative impacts of placing sanctions on Venezuelan oil or oil-related products. On a tour of Latin America, US Secretary of State Tillerson expressed mounting concerns about the political affairs in Venezuela. President Nicolas Maduro, widely criticized from Washington for his stance on democracy, is up for re-election this year and Tillerson said early this week that “obviously” sanctioning oil or prohibiting the sale of Venezuelan oil in the United States was something to consider. Targeting Venezuelan oil carries risk for the United States. For the week ending Jan. 28, it was the seventh-largest exporter of oil to the United States, behind Nigeria.
Colombia’s government has opened its first shelter for Venezuelans who are pouring across the border in increasing numbers to escape their nation’s economic crisis. The facility, opened Saturday near the border city of Cúcuta, is expected to provide shelter of up to 48 hours for 120 people a day. In recent weeks, an increasing exodus of Venezuelan migrants has overwhelmed Cúcuta, with many sleeping on the streets. Crime in the city has grown as gangs recruit and take advantage of the desperate migrants. Some 35,000 Venezuelans cross into Colombia each day, many of them settling in with relatives or making short trips to buy food and medicine that has been scarce back home.
7. The Briefs (selections from the press – date of article in Peak Oil News is in parentheses – see more here: news.peak-oil.org)
The liquefied natural gas market is growing every year, but the terminals that ship and receive the fuel are shrinking. The booming sector’s next-generation infrastructure is being designed for emerging-market buyers that want smaller volumes on shorter, more flexible contracts. (2/5)
Europe will soon experience a gas shortage and price spike if it tries to rely on US gas imports to cover rising demand instead of increasing purchases from Russia, Kremlin energy giant Gazprom told Reuters. The West has accused Russia of using gas as a political weapon. Moscow has responded by blaming the West for blocking its new pipeline projects for political rather than economic reasons. (2/9)
Members of the European Union were falling short of their energy consumption targets for 2020, data from the EU’s statistics office show. Members of the EU are committed to reducing energy consumption by 20 percent by 2020 and were 4 percent off their target in 2016, the last for which Eurostat published data. (2/6)
In Norway, most of the metrics have improved at one of the nation’s most promising fields—the Johan Sverdrup, partners said. Phase 1 of the field’s development is currently underway and about 70 percent completed. All told, Johan Sverdrup could represent a quarter of total Norwegian production and first deliveries from the field are expected to begin in late 2019. (2/8)
Netherland’s Groningen gas field was hit by an earthquake with a magnitude of 2.0 late Thursday, the second-biggest tremor this year after the January 8th 3.4 tremor, according to the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI). The quake was confirmed by the KNMI to have been triggered by gas extraction. (2/9)
BP’s profits more than doubled in 2017 to $6.2 billion powered by higher prices and output of oil and gas, allowing the company to resume share buybacks as it recovers from a three-year downturn. The London-listed company saw one of the strongest production increases in its history last year, lifting output to levels not seen since the deadly 2010 Deepwater Horizon spill. (2/6)
Offshore Cyprus, Eni and Total have made a promising gas discovery that confirms that the Zohr-like play where Eni found the biggest gas deposit in the Mediterranean offshore Egypt extends into the Cyprus Exclusive Economic Zone. (2/6)
While Russia is sending its top-quality crude oil to China in its battle for market share on the prized Asian market, European refiners are left with lower-quality imports from Russia and are now reviewing how much Russian crude they would buy and at what price. The quality of Russia’s Urals crude grade has deteriorated so much that some refiners are considering renegotiation of supplies and prices. (2/6)
In Tajikistan, construction work has resumed on a natural gas pipeline running from Turkmenistan to China. Funding for the building work is being provided by China. This pipeline has a designed capacity of 25-30 billion cubic meters of gas per year and will become the fourth and last planned strand of a network of routes carrying the fuel from Turkmenistan to China. Once completed, the pipeline would put China in a position to import up to around 65 billion cubic meters of Turkmen gas annually. (2/5)
In Colombia, the Cubiro oilfield was shut down on Monday after a series of threats and attacks against the facility’s workers. The National Liberation Army recently restarted attacks on Colombia’s oil infrastructure as peace talks with Bogota fall apart. Cubiro produces 3,600 barrels per day. (2/7)
Offshore Guyana, French energy company Total said Monday it has expanded its footprint off the South American coast by taking exploration rights. Total’s partners offshore Guyana include Exxon Mobil and African-focused explorer Tullow Oil. The broader Guyana-Suriname basin is estimated to hold around 12 billion barrels of oil. (2/6)
Canada unveiled sweeping new rules aimed at toughening oversight of energy projects and instilling confidence in a system criticized by companies as too cumbersome and environmentalists as too lax. The wholesale makeover to the country’s environmental review process is an effort by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Government to strike a balance between its pledge to implement a more robust climate-change policy while fostering investment in the energy sector, which is a major driver of economic growth. (2/9)
In British Columbia, Australian energy company Calima said it’s closer to drilling into the emerging Montney oil and gas basin in British Columbia. Calima operates more than 70,000 acres in the Montney shale formation in BC. The company said it’s received authorization from the provincial oil and gas commission to build, maintain and operate a road into its holdings. (2/7)
The US oil rig count increased by 26 this week, boosting the count to 791, according to the Baker Hughes weekly report. More than half of the US’s oil rigs were located in the Permian basin in west Texas and eastern New Mexico where the number of active units increased by 10 this week to 437. (2/10)
SPR sales: The US budget deal reached by Congress on Wednesday includes the sale of 100 million barrels of crude oil from the country’s emergency petroleum stash starting in 2022, or about 15 percent of the reserve, according to the text of the agreement. (2/9)
In the Gulf of Mexico, a Chinese partner at the Stampede oil field said production started Tuesday. US energy company Hess Corp. is the operator with a 25 percent stake. Processing is completed using infrastructure with a capacity of around 80,000 barrels of oil and 40 million cubic feet of natural gas per day. Three production wells are currently completed, and production is expected to ramp up through 2018. (2/7)
Exxon Mobil Corp said on Thursday its oil and gas reserves surged 19 percent last year, thanks to growth in US shale, the United Arab Emirates and Guyana, with a portfolio large enough to pump for the next 14 years at least. Exxon said it added 2.7 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) to its proved reserves last year, bringing the total to 21.2 billion boe. (2/10)
ExxonMobil’s mea culpa: the company was forced to finally acknowledge the possibility that future climate change policy could lead to peak oil demand, a serious threat to the company’s operations over the long-term. In response to a shareholder resolution passed last year, the oil major just released a report that recognizes the danger of peak oil demand. By 2040, climate change policies and regulations could cut into oil demand, leading to a drop in consumption by 20 percent. It’s a rather bleak picture for oil. (2/8)
Halliburton Co. is waging an aggressive campaign to persuade the US Patent and Trademark Office to cancel some of Schlumberger’s fracking-related patents, telling the agency they’re not inventions but old ideas repackaged. At the same time, Halliburton is pursuing more patents and was awarded 35 percent more in 2017 compared to the previous year. (2/7)
Florida hot seat: The US Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, a division of the Interior Department, is holding state hearings on a proposed five-year lease plan that would open nearly all of the US territorial waters to oil and gas drillers. Industry supporters in Florida kicked back against opposition to offshore drilling, saying the state has emerging opportunities to capitalize on US momentum. (2/10)
California hot seat: Environmental activists in California on Thursday plan to protest a Trump Administration proposal to vastly increase offshore oil drilling in the United States. The protest was planned to immediately precede a public meeting by the US Interior Department’s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management in Sacramento. (2/9)
California’s threat to deny pipeline permits for transporting oil from new leases off the Pacific Coast is the latest step by states trying to halt the biggest proposed expansion in decades of federal oil and gas leasing. Officials in Florida, North and South Carolina, Delaware and Washington, have also warned drilling could despoil beaches, harm wildlife and hurt lucrative tourism industries. (2/8)
Democratic senators from US coastal states said they’re still waiting for clarification on a five-year drilling plan given the ambiguity over Florida. (2/8)
Windy NYC: New York Governor Andrew Cuomo just launched the 60-page New York State Offshore Wind Master Plan, detailing the state’s commitment to wind power and the expected gains from seeing it through: 2,400 MW offshore energy will power in excess of 1.2 million homes. The industry will employ up to 5,000 people. The industry will be worth $6 billion in a decade. (2/8)
In booming Colorado, utility Xcel Energy asked for proposals to construct big power plants using wind turbines and solar panels. The bids have come in so low that the company will be able to build and operate the new plants for less money than it would have to pay just to keep running its old, coal-burning power plants. You read that right: In parts of the country, wind and solar plants built from scratch now offer the cheapest power available, even counting old coal, which was long seen as unbeatable. (2/7)
RE beats coal: For the first time, the European Union generated more electricity from wind, solar and biomass than from coal in 2017, according to new analysis from two think tanks. The reports says “This is incredible progress, considering just five years ago coal generation was more than twice that of wind, solar and biomass.” (2/6)
Tesla-Aussie again: After building the world’s largest lithium battery in Australia ahead of schedule, Tesla has announced plans to build the world’s largest “virtual power plant” by outfitting 50,000 homes in South Australia with solar panels and Tesla battery storage units over the next four years, slashing participants’ energy bill by 30 percent. Beginning with a trial of 1100 Housing Trust properties, a 5kW solar panel system and 13.5kWh Tesla Powerwall 2 battery will be installed at no charge to the household and financed through the sale of electricity. (2/9)
China’s E-bus push: Within the next seven years, nearly half of the buses used by municipal transit districts will be electric, with China playing a leading role. A new study from Bloomberg New Energy Finance predicts that last year’s sale of 386,000 electric buses will go up to 1.2 million by 2025. The BNEF study found that all-electric buses can offer lower total cost of ownership through their vehicle lifecycles. The cost of fuel and maintenance expenses can be much lower. Electric buses are much easier to maintain and require less parts replacement than diesel- or natural gas-powered buses. (2/9)
In China, drone maker EHANG has posted footage of the latest test flights of its model 184, a passenger-carrying all-electric autonomous aerial vehicle. The company claims the EHANG 184 series is the world’s first passenger drone capable of carrying a single person. It does so at up to 130 km/h and through force 7 typhoon conditions. (2/7)
Part of Earth’s protective ozone shield may be thinning over the most heavily populated regions of the globe, even as an ozone hole over Antarctica continues to mend, international researchers said Tuesday. Unfortunately, the decline is larger than the rise measured at higher altitudes over Antarctica. The global ozone layer, protected by an international treaty, absorbs hazardous ultraviolet radiation from the sun that can damage DNA and heighten the risk of cancer and other health problems. (2/6)
Scott Pruitt, head of the US EPA; has repeatedly questioned the scientific consensus that rising levels of carbon dioxide from human-fueled activity are warming the planet. He’s now taking a different tack: Even if climate change is occurring, as the vast majority of scientists say it is, a warmer atmosphere might not be so awful for humans. (2/8)
In Pakistan, beneath the international headlines a massive water crisis is unfolding that has profound implications for the country’s stability and security. Rapid urbanization and conflict combined with corruption, crime and years of mismanagement have left a massive proportion of the population without access to clean water. And now, this long-festering crisis threatens to upend Pakistan’s politics. (2/8)
Cimi, thanks for the book recommendation!
Came across this dated article today and wanted you to see it.
sumi
You enjoyed it as much as me and yes, I need that hot water after a day's work. I need the body to lay on clean sheets!
Jean-Bernard seems to be a glutton for punishment and I wonder what is his secret.
I know in the last three years, I crave for a siesta in the afternoon to continue working later in the day.
Holy cow, look at the size of the beets!
"I've always managed by myself - I've never been rich but what do I care?" < Jean-Bernard has food insurance!
Coincidentally my paternal Grandma was from this part of France in southern Brittany. My cousins who studied French tried to correct her accent. We all thought we were part French. I was corrected by an acquaintance in later decades that I was part Breton and not part French.
She was a hell of a gardener and basically had a small farm outside of NYC during the Great Depression.
sumi