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Yes AZ we are very close now to something big. The senate turning GOP will be a huge business friendly development in the country and that can do nothing but help WMI. The keystone pipeline will be approved. Lots of deals will be consummated in the coming days and weeks. We are in good shape and that late day volume shows something's in the wind. I think $10-40B is coming back to the estate too, and soon.
To longs...be sure to help those less fortunate when the windfall does happen.
AZ...I too am confident that soon this will be looking much better. It's been grim for all of us but it's always darkest before dawn. I think we're seeing a final shakeout here before news. I contend that the big run we saw on 9/25-26 was a leak. Something is up and I expect an announcement fairly soon.
Keep the faith, longs.
There will be an announcement within 2-3 weeks. <All signs now point to this.>
I may be wrong but I have a strong feeling about this. Almost 7 years of analysis and I think we are almost there.
All IMHO....but mark this post kids.
KKR had a reason for coveting WMI's $6B NOLs, and for sending their key financial guy to the board meetings...
I think they wanted to get the employee claims snafu out of the way, which it now is. They also want to wait till elections are over next week, as are many companies now. They all want to see if the pro-biz Reps win the senate. If they do this economy will take off and a WMI deal will hit soon after. Patience is the watch word now.
Reply on your escrows statement: assets -
"how on god's green earth would the examiner - the court - the EC attorney - the creditors - everyone - not see 300B of mortgage assets if they were there?"
Well, in the same way they didn't "see" $4B cash of the shareholders' money sitting in the WAMU vault that they gave away to JPM for $1.8B! Look, in the fury of that financial meltdown it was like the wild west and Dimon and Bair moved in for the kill quickly to make this happen in the middle of a Thursday night while the financial world was reeling in chaos.
I will agree this is very nebulous and convoluted, but to make such statements that "we ain't gittin chit" is presumptuous at best and foolish at least.
I think we will know more very soon. AZ has done a ton of compelling work on this subject and he's no dummy. His detective work was brilliant and I still feel escrows will get paid, and handsomely. When is the question. If anyone has escrows and they think they are worthless I will take them and give you a percentage when they hit. Deal, or is that chit?
I sold 10K shares at 4.20 Crazy! I had 10K shares at a sell at $4 for the hell of it and they all sold. Very odd.
Someone must be desperate to get in. What do they know?
Hint of things to come?
$4.20 a share now! WTF???
Big merger news Monday. Did Sierra tell you that? LOL
Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while. Eventually someone will guess it right.
My two pence is very soon but no one will know when it does happen until it happens.
KFN is a possibility. The fit is right. KKR are no dummies. They got involved with WMI for a reason, you can count on that.
rockie, this is a tough time, but......I really think there are good things ready to happen. All signs point to this. Many are worn down and hoped for something on Sept 25 and now have to sell, thus the selling volume since. It's a shame because they have had financial and health issues, etc. to deal with so they had to sell, a welcome bargain for big boys accumulating shares to reap great rewards.
For those of us who can hang on, when it hits the fan WMIH will go up like a rocket and escrows will be worth a great deal, at least par, if not much more. When is the question, but as I said, the big boys will insist that the FDIC release the assets. They cannot legally hold onto our assets any longer. I contend this will happen very soon, and certainly this year IMO.
Escrows and the lack of M&A......
I know many including me are concerned about the plunging share price and lack of developments on M&A. IMO, this is what is happening, and I know this has been discussed before ad nauseum, but:
I am obviously in the escrow camp. I feel the FDIC will soon release funds to the estate. While some say it will be hundreds of billions, I do feel we could see $10-40B based on my extensive research and being a SH since pre BK, and being quite well versed on this whole saga. This release will happen sooner rather than later. The big boys who stand to gain tremendously from this transaction will NOT allow the FDIC to drag their feet and sandbag for years as some have said. The big players have the legal means and funds to make this happen expeditiously. Those of us who have escrows will benefit from their work to make this happen. They also know the tenuous world situation and those inherent uncertainties and will push to make this happen soon.
This is precisely why there has been no M&A movement IMO. If the estate is going to see billions coming in, why do a paltry deal and measly capitalization of $1B? Makes no sense at this time. They have had numerous ops to make a deal but have chosen not to because they know the estate will see significant funds coming back. When that does happen, there will be enough money to stay autonomous and start to buy much larger operations than they could with a capitalization from the NOLs.
I think when that does happen the SP will soar, and those who are willing to hold here and ride this out will get rich. I know it's tough to keep holding and hoping, but I think the light at the end of this tunnel is getting brighter by the day.
GLTA
Yes. We will see an announcement/8k any time now. That big jump of 35 cents was some sort of leak. Something is imminent or my name isnt....boris the spider.
MW will never comment on escrows or wmih until such time that there is concrete info to announce. To do otherwise would be possible legal suicide. Be patient. Something is coming this month. IMO
The 8K will be filed any day, certainly by Monday at the close. If not they are in violation of the law. That 35 cent rise the other day was a leak, plain and simple...a friend of a secretary or someone who heard or saw something. Something is afoot, much to catz' dismay.
Escrow distribution letters.....when the calculations are complete I would expect owners of escrow shares to get a letter in the mail to verify current account info. If the distributions are substantial they need to have concrete verification of accounts. This could be underway now. They are not going to disperse thousands or millions into accounts without verification after all these years. Once the numbers are nailed down I would expect that letters would be forthcoming. When this will be is the question.
Why no rise in SP? There can only be two reasons why the price and volume have not risen yet. Either there is no news coming, yet, or everyone is fully invested and just sitting back and waiting for the news which could be imminent. Also, no one connected in any way to WMI dare buy shares here due to IT issues/quiet period.
Others who might nibble are skeptical and why take a chance? Those of us who know all the details of what is going on for the last 6 yrs are fully invested already and just waiting. Simple. If something big is ready to be announced it would have to be a very tightly kept secret for obvious reasons.
My prediction is October. :)
Obama and Dimon are best friends. This admin is very corrupt, so if Dimon can have Obama/Holder put pressure on the courts about this debacle they will.
Assets must come back to the estate. This has been discussed ad infinitum. The FDIC is not a bank. Where else could these assets go?
Based on how crooked this administration is I don't put anything passed them, but I don't see how these assets cannot come back. I doubt it is $700B, or even $300B as some have said. Wish they are right but my gut says $30B. That would make Ps valued at $3000 ea.
My heart breaks for those who did not grant releases. Not only didn't they get escrows, but WMIH will also go up a great deal once things unfold. 40% of shareholders did not grant releases....that's a lot of disappointed folks once the escrows and WMIH pay off. I truly do feel bad for them.
Nothing is definite in this crazy world, but I do like our chances. 6 yrs of agony is enough. Let's see what the cosmos has in store for us!
Nobody knows how this is all going to play out. What we do know is the assets coming back to the estate are considerable, anywhere from $30-300B. BUT, the hedgies want there money so to say this will be delayed for years is ludicrous. The world may not even be around that much longer, so time is ticking and they want their money, now. JPM can't just delay because they feel like it. We will know much more in 2 weeks. That's for sure. Then we will see who long it will take for the escrow money to show up in accounts. The FDIC no doubt wants this mess over with, the sooner the better.
Ps worth $100 for every $1B that comes back. Simple. We will know by 9/25. Then it is a matter of dispersing the funds which could be a matter of weeks or months till it is in escrow holders accts.
Escrows will receive payment IMO. How much and when is the question. Some say $ will come back to the estate in enormous amounts. I think $20-30B is the minimum, but could be much more. The payments will be made into escrow accounts of record. Could be all in one lump sum or in payments over time as assets are liquidated.
Those who think this will not happen are deluding themselves....they likely do not have escrows and are jealous.
IF this does happen, it would be wise for those receiving what could be large sums of money to keep it quiet or people will come out of the woodwork to get at your newfound wealth.
I cannot say with 100% certainty because this administration is so corrupt, but if it does happen it will be very significant. We should know more soon.
GLTA Escrow holders.
Escrows will receive payment IMO. How much and when is the question. Some say $ will come back to the estate in enormous amounts. I think $20-30B is the minimum, but could be much more. The payments will be made into escrow accounts of record. Could be all in one lump sum or in payments over time as assets are liquidated.
Those who think this will not happen are deluding themselves....they likely do not have escrows and are jealous.
IF this does happen, it would be wise for those receiving what could be large sums of money to keep it quiet or people will come out of the woodwork to get at your newfound wealth.
I cannot say with 100% certainty because this administration is so corrupt, but if it does happen it will be very significant. We should know more soon.
GLTA Escrow holders.
$10B coming back would make escrow prefs whole/par. Most estimates are minimum $30B coming back to the estate which would make escrow Ps worth $3000 ea.
While this sounds insane it is very rational if you've followed this for the last 6 yrs.
we will know more very soon kids. If this does happen get a financial counselor. Don't be stupid.
Bob, the PE has been listed at around 1750 and now is showing at 67. Why? Something has just changed. This is VERY strange.
The listed PE just changed. Why suddenly at $67??? Anyone else pick up on this?
PE was $1800. Now suddenly $67. Expect a PR.
They have to be silent now. We are in the biggest month of our WAMU lives, perhaps. Get ready. I say something wonderful is about to happen.......
KKR, Blackstone, Susman et.al....these are no dummies.
There will be plenty of $ for par on escrows. Could be much much more, put par is a given at this point based on what we know will come back to the estate.
The value was $350B. That amount should come back to the estate, but as corrupt as things are now in this country don't hold your breath.
My guess is anywhere from $15-100B. Even if only $15B the prefs will be made whole. That is conservative but more realistic.
I suggest you escrowers start to think "what ifs" because it could happen suddenly some day and your account will then be huge. As many have said, it is best to keep windfalls like this secret. If you suddenly have millions and word leaks out about you you will have other problems to deal with. Think "security".
Large...agree with your assessment. $350B is accurate but we'd be lucky to get $100B in this corrupt environment of this administration. Nonetheless, $100B will make Ps worth thousands....imagine. We deserve just restitution after 6 years of agony we have all been put through.
Sept could be a huge month for escrow and WMI. And when the $$$ comes back into the estate, the escrow shareholders will suddenly find their accounts are up enormously one morning. I now agree there will be no fanfare and no chest pounding by Obama. I think this will be done quickly and quietly.
Those who hold escrows must prepare themselves NOW. Tread quietly with your newfound gains and keep the news to yourself. If you suddenly have millions people will bug you relentlessly! Keep it quiet. Get a good trustworthy financial counselor and tell no one other than spouse (If you trust them!)
This could be VERY big so get ready now. Be cool.
This is why there has been no WMI deal to date. They too are waiting to see what $$$ are coming from FDIC. It could be enormous, so why share it with another company? In any event, next month will be big. Those with escrow shares are in for some good times...use it wisely and keep it secret or you'll have friends, both good and bad, that you never imagined...and personal lawsuits for every reason under the sun. Keep your newfound wealth quiet...trust no one.
Prefs will be paid at least par. Likely much more, but there's plenty of money coming back to pay in full. The question is, when............
Large...Sept will be a very large month. Funny how the hedgies are still trying to manipulate out the retailers!! Sept will be big. Very big.
They need to somehow give Obama credit for this WAMU settlement. Once they figure that out the assets will be released, with big fanfare. "Look. I took care of the WAMU shareholders who were fleeced by the previous administration. Period."
AZ is right. Assets must be returned to WMI. Plain and simple. FDIC can't hold them and they can only go to WMI. The question is when....
Since his best friend is CEO of JPM he has a lot to do with this. He'd get good PR out of righting this wrong. Watch and learn.
AZ, you are 100% correct sir. Your analysis is accurate. The question is when will this transpire? I think Obama will use this and say Bush created this mess for WAMU shareholders and that he is going to make it right and return the funds to the rightful owners. Sept sounds like as good a time as any. It would be good PR for the Nov elections.
Now, $10B would make Ps whole. $24B would pay them $2400 each. Simple arithmetic.
The FDIC has to make this right. They are holding assets that they do not own and they need to be returned to their rightful owners. The FDIC will not dare challenge this the way the Obama administration has been losing its court battles lately. Expect this to be returned to the estate/escrow holders.