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Fundamentals and technicals mean nothing with a stock like this. This is all about the news. If things haven't developed by mid Jan, I'll be glad to eat crow here. If I am right I'll be ordering a $60K Lexus 450h. My guess is I'll be driving it in a few weeks....special order.
I am amazed that the SP isn't much higher here, but "someone" has been holding it down. It doesn't look like they will get it down to $1.70 as they hoped to though.
Things will start to unfold on 1/5 and after. Many big announcements are coming so hang onto your hats. Buying WMIH here at these prices is a gift.
And yes, escrows will receive substantial recovery and soon.
Double dipping is sweet.
He who laughs last laughs best. The longs will get the last laugh.
May be time to ignore escrow doubters. This horse has been beat to death by both sides and no one is budging from their beliefs, so the discourse on this is getting old.
The fact is, none of us know for sure what will happen with escrows. I believe there will be a payout, and soon, but we still have many unknowns....which the non-believers are feeding off of.
I do think many non believers are non owners of escrows (despite what they say). Others may be JPM posters, of which there are many....both here and on other boards. Why they care about escrows is beyond me. Maybe they feel JPM will need to pony up $$, but that is not the case.
There are many other important matters to discuss here, rather than beating the dead horse of the escrow argument. The next couple weeks will be big, both for WHIH and perhaps escrows. I'll be ordering my new Lexus soon.
In the heat of that Thurs night WAMU theft, they moved very hurriedly so they couldn't be somehow blocked from their nefarious deed. They jumped over benches like OJ running after the "murderer", and in their haste, several items/assets were missed on the final tally sheet. This has been discussed in great detail by many and I will not rehash all that. It has been clearly pointed out.
While of course I understand the jaded doubters' assertions that there is nothing left, nothing could be further from the truth. This will all be made very clear soon. I don't care if said doubters believe this or not frankly. I'm sure they have their reasons for feeling as they do. Six years of hell can do that.
And I may not be right either! All I am saying is that I can say with 95% certainty that such hidden assets have been found and their values known, for the most part. Those escrow shares were given out as part of the "fair and reasonable" settlement, and if the judge thought there was nothing to be gained in those she would have dissolved those at the time. The fact that they were part of the release is very telling.
Believe what you wish. I'm not telling anyone I am 100% right and to go take out a loan on a new Lexus. Each can decide whether they have faith in this perspective, or not. I for one will be ordering my new Lexus 450h fully loaded in the next couple weeks.
Good luck to all the patient longs.
Interesting find nightdaytrader. There is no company that fits into this wording of the bill better than WAMU. Very interesting.
The Killinger matter was the crux of 12/23, we now know. However, the fact that there was no extension to the PAA means it is now just a formality to close this mess. The FDIC R will start to unravel all that very soon. They have to, by law. We can all speculate and guess when that will happen, but it appears that all's in order for something with escrows to happen soon.
My only worry is the corruptness of our gov currently, and their ineptness. But I still feel that this will come in stages over time. I may be wrong, but I doubt it. The next couple of weeks will tell a lot about our future.
As for WMIH, we are golden. I am flabbergasted that the SP is staying down, but KKR may have a hand in that as mary says. Once we get into 2015 things will change dramatically and the SP should soar.
Greenie, 8 posits...We'd all be happy with one. But that $28B number is most logical, 2.8 posits. Might take another year to get there but it could start to pay out very soon, in stages as I've said. The gift that keeps on giving.....be sure your account info is up to date.
Merry Christmas to all longs. 2015 could be quite a year.
Technicals don't mean much with this stock. It will be a news driven event when the fecal material hits the fan. It will happen suddenly and without warning. It will be concussive in nature.
I expect right after the new year we will see something major occur. I like our chances....call me crazy. KKR is not a partner I want to doubt.
WMIH will be the story stock of 2015.....IMO.
Look, let's all just get along OK? We can all have differing viewpoints but can still be civil and respectful of others points. It's the holiday season after all.
My feeling is very positive that we will do well, both with WMIH and escrows. If others are not so positive that's their prerogative. I don't understand it, and question why someone would be involved in a high risk BK company investment, and feel pessimistic about their chances to be successful in that investment. Why be involved? I guess that's what I don't get.
Be joyous. Tis the season. Peace.
Oh brother.....
Keep it to ourselves? Oh, guess I thought a message board was for discourse. I'll start sending myself emails instead, OK? Geesh! Unreal.
It's called anticipation and excitement. If you don't get excited about your investments then you're in the wrong place. Put your money in the bank and forget about it. Can we please be excited? Thanks. Sorry to intrude.
An escrow payout benefits all. I don't understand why some attack an escrow payout....most escrow holders will reinvest into WMIH causing the SP to soar. Good for all. Everyone should be hoping for escrowers to do well. I plan on buying huge blocks myself.
Merry Christmas everyone. 2015 is going to be sweet.
Puzzling accumulation going on. Some astute investor(s) gobbles up shares as soon as they are available. But who in their right mind would sell here?! Is it shifting around shares by a hedgie? Where are they getting a million shares to buy? Very strange. Something big is coming......
Greenie, this does bode well for escrows. we needed this ruling today. All is falling into place for some big events in the coming few weeks and months. The acquisition will be now surely be announced early Jan.
WMIH shares, as well as escrows, will be in a far different place very soon.
GLTAL
Great news. The last impediment. Now the LT can move forward without this legal wrangling to deal with for years. Great news indeed. Looks like Walrath finally came through for us.
Merry Christmas!
Expect big moves in early Jan. We will see things start to take shape the first week of Jan and increasing into mid March when all starts to unfold. Be patient here! More developments on the way.
Merry Christmas longs! Relax and enjoy your holidays. Good things cometh...
"WMILT intends to present the Revised Proposed Order to the Bankruptcy Court."
Thanks for posting this filing soundincrest. It does appear this is about the Killinger matter.
Escrows will be paid in stages over time. I think the low hanging fruit already known, will come back to the estate very soon. The rest will be plunked into accounts as they are confirmed, and I think we are close to that now that the PAA is closed.
This is the perfect time to disperse these funds with all the other news out there now. The FDIC can easily bury this in the news so people aren't outraged by the payout and the incompetence of the FDIC in this fiasco.
I'd love to believe that escrows will be paid out now in conjunction with this deal, but I have my doubts. However, the board may know differently and may know these assets are coming in NOW.
Guesses on open/close tomorrow....$4.50/$6.00.
I believe the late ask Fri was $4.50 after the filing. I would imagine record buying of course with many retailers desperate for cash taking some profits. The smart will wait till >$10 to take some profits. $10 should come very quickly now.
We'll see if bop can get us to $35 by March.
Escrows to be taxed at 15% cap gains....not ordinary income. So it sounds like, as long as you held escrows for a year, which we all have, it is cap gains, not ord income as some have said. Your basis would be your purchase price. Say in 2008 you bought a block of Ps at $3.00. When you signed the release, those escrows were just transferred into your brokerage account, but the basis remained the same $3.00 per share.
If Ps pay out at $2000, you'd pay 15% of the gain. If anyone can show proof otherwise, prove it.
$7-12 share price by 1/5/15. Once the $5 inst barrier is broken this thing will really take off on enormous volume. $5 will happen very quickly now. All IMHO.
I agree Bluee....Genworth is a likely potential target. The $6B in NOLs makes this a blockbuster combo. I believe a deal is already done with someone and will be divulged very soon.
Not sure how the escrows will come into play. The PAA is closed obviously, so money can be dispersed at any time now. I just don't know if it has all been confirmed quite yet. I think that escrow money will go out in waves into holders accounts over time, but starting in "small" amounts very soon. Who knows for sure?! It would be great if those hidden assets would come back to the estate now, allowing WMIH to do deals without doing offerings to raise cash. I'm ready to buy millions in WMIH stock myself with escrow funds, and I know others are thinking likewise.
Let the good times roll. Help those in need...there are a lot out there that could use our help. Good karma.
First $6B in revenues will be tax free. Imagine what that will do for the share price of any company they acquire? I expect a small bank or investment group is in process of being purchased.
This is big folks....the first step in a dig deal.
You don't raise $600MM in cash "just because", or in case something good might be available at some point.
A deal is obviously in the works and will be announced in Jan.....closing in March, IMO.
You had to know back when Blackstone and KKR got involved that good things were coming...these guys are winners and make things happen. Then KKR has one of their main financial guys sit in on the board meetings.
Can't wait to see what this deal is going to be. Then when escrows get paid imagine the $$$ that will pour into WMIH stocks. 2015....WMIH the story stock of the year.
We appreciate your legwork AZ. Things look ready to happen very soon now so we can put this mess to rest once and for all. I'm ready to load up on many more WMIH shares when the escrows do hit. The bank charter is in place and WMI could emerge as a great company once again. Imagine...6 years of hell may be coming to a close.
Merry Christmas!
Thanks AZ. I understood. Baffles me with all we now know how the naysayers can still be so oblivious.
Happy Holidays my friend. Good things sure to come our way soon.
"Expect nothing and never be disappointed"? If I had that philosophy in my life I'd hang myself. Geesh. Just hand me a bag of pot and join the slacker crowd.
Look, I am a realist and an optimist. I have gone far in life, and have powerful intuition that has made me excel in my career managing multibillion dollar companies. I am no doofus.
I have followed WAMU since pre BK and have large holdings. I have done extensive DD and am 100% confident in my determinations of forward successes here, both in WMIH and escrow eventualities.
First escrow payout could happen any day, or it could be Spring. I don't think it will be much longer now. All's in order.
Escrows WILL be paid. No question. The time frame and final amount is unknown, but they will be paid...likely in stages over time. The first distribution of $2.7B will happen quickly as it is already in R. That will give Ps $270 ea. Not a bad downpayment for the big number to follow.
We shall see. It makes sense that KKR would make their move first before escrows get paid. Once escrows get paid WMIH will go through the roof and KKR does not want that to happen till they are all in.
But they've been dragging their feet so they could get screwed. The coming few weeks will tell the story.
My guess is once escrows get paid and many reinvest in WMIH shares the price could blast through $5 very quickly.
2.7 POSITS = $27B = $2700 PER P ESCROW.....for those confused about this. Walrath referred to "posits".. AZ's estimate appears accurate at $27B.
"To posit something is to assume or suggest that it is true."
The question is, will this happen all at once or in stages. I think in stages over time but who knows?? Very soon your escrow accts will look very Christmassy. IMO. Then we escrowers can start loading up on more WMIH shares for the big ride up.
This is the $27B az has discussed. Thanks Bo.
41.7B in value
(14B) bank bondholders
27.7B (could go back to the trust after the bankruptcy is closed. FDIC may "discover" that the (40B) they placed on their balance sheet at the end of 2013 as an adjustment is not that bad)[color=red][/color]
My main concern: corrupt administration. In a normal time, we'd be golden, but I trust nothing with this current administration and with Dimon being buddies with Obama. Very concerned about this.
Will justice prevail? We shall know in a month or less now.
BLUEEFOXX, we do not need to file a claim for escrows.
You said "How is WMILT going to recover 24B when they have not filed a claim (per their counsel) with the Receiver?"
There is NO NEED to file a claim for this. That money must be returned to the estate. Simple transaction really.
These "hidden" assets were lost in the shuffle that fateful, and evil, Thursday night under the table deal. Now, those assets must be returned. Get it? JPM did not get them. So where are they to go but back to the estate?! FDIC cannot hold the assets hostage any longer.
Question for you BF: Do you own escrows? Honestly?
Escrows will be paid out in phases. The $2.7B now in R will get distributed first. That will clear out that amount, and also test the system to be sure all is in order with accounts etc. If that goes smoothly then as other assets are confirmed/cleared that will be distributed, and so on over a period of months/years.
The FDIC-R has all escrow account holders info per our releases. I would advise everyone holding escrows to be sure your accounts and contact info are up to date.
All IMO of course. I think I am right, and soon the doubters will be pounding the table....one way or another.
AZcowboy estimates $27B to escrows.....I believe is what his best guestimate is. I think that may be the $24B from the sealed doc recently uncovered by govinsider, plus 6 yrs of interest.
I think he feels quite confident in this assertion and has done a ton of legwork on this.
As for doubters...hmmm....jealous perhaps? I don't get it. This development would help WMI immensely as discussed ad nausea.
Good luck to the believers.
The rest of the year could be very big...12/23 hearing, KKR action, etc. Something is due to break and it could be big. My best guess is some action this year yet, some bigger event in early Jan, and more to come in March. By April we should be in a far different position than we are now. My two cents based on all indications.
Flame away....
For those who do not believe escrows will get recovery.....when they do please send me your money and I will distribute it to charity. Since you think escrows are nonsense and worthless, surely you won't miss the money anyway. We wouldn't want you to be guilt ridden.
azcowboy,,,we all need a little patience....I know many here are impatient, us included! Many others here are doubters on our theory, and that too is understandable based on the 6 horrible years we've been through!
NOW! I too think we are close to a major event/breakthrough. My feeling based on all the dd I've done along with yours and others' input, is that something is going to happen in the coming few weeks, likely by year's end. Then a cascade of events will start to happen leading into March. By summer pretty much all will be finalized, however escrows could continue to receive monies as assets are uncovered and confirmed. This will be an ongoing process for a while.
I think Walrath gave us much more than people realize in this deal. Time will tell. All my opinion of course. I like our chances more and more each day.