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Could be a VERY big week coming up.
I said by end of July a while back and people doubted the great spider. :)
Macroeconomics dictate a move NOW
With the world collapsing, ISIS spreading, Greece, Iran, Russia and China in desperation mode, Israel a teetering sitting duck, and our own country falling apart, it behooves the WMI fiasco to get finalized soon before everything falls apart.
Do you hear me boys??? Time to make a move and wrap this up while you still can. Don't languish in lalaland anymore. Seriously.
LG, I've felt end of July for a while now.
I expect something big will happen any day and these last couple days confirmed that something is up!
My guess is some strong activity on an announcement this month then some very major movement in Sept.
We need to see the "surprise announcement" about assets in the LT and they cannot hold back on that much longer. as AZ said all is now finally in place.
When and how many $ we will know soon.
There is huge money involved. the hedgies have been patient but now they want their money!!
Just recently volume was 40-70K a day!
So yes volume is picking up but not where we need to be. my guess is few want to sell here so buyers can't buy what isn't there without running this thru the roof....which will happen soon anyway.
Thanks scrivener. What a snake pit!! OMG. How do these people sleep at night knowing they ruined the lives of thousands of people who lost their jobs and their life savings, not to mention the shareholders and depositors who lost it all.
Our government has no scruples. We've turned into Russia.
—– Original Message —–
From: Bair, Sheila C.
To: Reich, John M Cc: Murton, Arthur J. ; Polakoff, Scott M
Sent: Wed Aug
Subject: W
Dear John,
I’d like to further discuss contingency planning for W during the call on Friday. Art talked with Scott about making some discrete inquiries to determine whether there are institutions which would be willing to acquire it on a whole bank basis if we had to do an emergency closing, and on what terms. I understand you have strong objections to our doing so, so I’d like to talk this through. My interest is in assuring that IF we have to market it on an emergency basis, there is multiple bidder interest.
In any event, both the FDIC and the FRB agree that there needs to be a contingency plan in place, so let’s talk this through on Friday. I’d really like to develop a plan everyone is comfortable with.
Sheila
—–Original Message—–
From: Reich, John M
To: Bair, Sheila C.
Sent: Wed Aug 06 17:32:482008
Subject: Re: W
Dear Sheila, You really know how to stir up a colleague’s vacation.
I do not under any circumstances want to discuss this on Friday’s conference call, in which I mayor may not be able to participate, depending on cell phone service availability on the cruise ship location.
Instead, I want to have a one on one meeting with Ben Bernanke prior to any such discussion – as early next week as possible following my return to the office. Also, I may or may not choose to have a similar meeting with Secretary Paulson.
I should not have to remind you the FDIC has no role until the PFR (i.e. the OTS) rules on solvency and the PFR utilizes PCA.
You personally, and the FDIC as an agency, would likely create added instability if you pursue what I strongly believe would be a precipitous and unprecedented action. And if it occurs without my consent, I will not sit quietly by and observe – there would be a public reaction. Put yourself in the PFR’s shoes in this situation. We have our responsibilities, including the right of primary supervisory determination of this institution’s condition, and until Congress changes the statutes under which we operate, our responsibilities as the PFR are not to be simply tendered to the FDIC in a down economic cycle.
It seems as though the FDIC is behaving as some sort of super-regulator – which you
and it are not. I also believe there could be a high potential for FDIC actions of the type you are contemplating to cause irreparable harm to Wamu if, at any point in the near future, Wamu wishes to actually seek a buyer. The potential harm could stem from the fact that any such potential buyer may have been allready been contacted by the FDIC.
If in fact any meetings or discussions have already taken place by the FDIC with either JPMC, Wells Fargo, or any other entity, in any capacity in which WaMu was even mentioned, I would like to see a copy of the signed confidentiality agreement signed by the bank – required in any resolution scenario before an institution is told the name of the failing bank.
This is an OTS regulated institution, not an FDIC regulated institution. We make any decision on solvency, not the FDIC, and I have staff equally as competent as staff at the FDIC, whom I know well.
The FDIC can do whatever internal contingency planning it wishes, but should in no way go outside the FDIC. This is a 3-rated institution. Are you also trying to find buyers for Citi, Wachovia, Nat City and others?
Finally, ifWamu were to learn ofthe FDIC’s actions, there may well be a question as to whether these actions may constitute a disclosable event. That, in and of itself, is a reason not to proceed with this approach for a publicly traded institution. The government should not be in the business of arranging mergers – particularly before they are necessary, and we are not at that point in WaMu’s situation.
I will attempt to be on the Friday conference call, and I am going to assume this notion is not going to be raised.
John
This excerpt is from John Reich's (OTS) email to Sheila Bair (FDIC) on 8/6/2008 (p264-265) says it all
"The government should not be in the business of arranging mergers - particularly before they are necessary, and we are not at that point in WaMu's situation.”
This excerpt from John Reich's (OTS) email to Sheila Bair (FDIC) on 8/8/2008 (p260).
"In my view rating WaMu a 4 would be a big error in judging the facts in this situation. It would appear to be a rating resulting from fear and not a rating based on the condition of the institution. WaMu has both the capital and the liquidity to justify a 3 rating."
This excerpt is from John Reich's (OTS) email to Sheila Bair (FDIC) Sent: Wed Aug 06 17:32:482008
"If in fact any meetings or discussions have already taken place by the FDIC with either JPMC, Wells Fargo, or any other entity, in any capacity in which WaMu was even mentioned, I would like to see a copy of the signed confidentiality agreement signed by the bank – required in any resolution scenario before an institution is told the name of the failing bank."
Another decent close.
Not a confirmation, but NOT BAD. We are close to something.
Could be the reason for lack of volume.
Great to see it holding yesterdays big gain. That is VERY positive in itself. But LOW volume is not good, however. The likely reason is simple.
No one in their right mind wants to sell here!
Why would they? The stock languishes for weeks and suddenly, a pop! Everyone knows an 8K or pr is likely imminent so whey sell?
There just aren't any blocks to sell now. Period. And they can't entice people into it. Period. Even if they pushed this over $3 very few shares would shake loose now!
Could be breakout time. $5 isn't far off now.
Not sure who is who....
And nothing here is 100% certain. Nothing. We all theorize based on our own DD and intuition,but when it comes down to it none of us know or will know, until it happens!
I put the estimate for escrows at 70-80% now of some sort of payout, likely at least $10B.
WMIH will hit $5 soon. I can pretty much bet the farm on that.
Tomorrow could be monumental.
If we see a big volume breakout that will be the confirmation that something big COULD be happening. We've had spikes before that fizzled but this one could have legs. Big legs.
My feeling is the next breakout through $3 will be one where there's no looking back. We shall see.
Shorts will not sleep well tonight.
Good post Yogi.
Been a tough 7 yrs for us all but we are oh so close.
also thanks to bopfan/csny. People thought she was nuts and her guidance was BS, but it is all coming true as she said it would. I gave the release and have made 470% on those grants. I'd say she's been right on though many disagree. Guess they didn't follow her advice. Too bad.
Yes we are close.
The MMs will let this run when it is time.
Look, they are in the game to make money too you know. They have helped all their buddies accumulate more shares as impatient retailers desperate for money have been selling shares.
When it's ready to release they will.Smart money knows before us peons. Watch the volume. Always the key.
I like the price increase today but it is not very meaningful without volume. They will let her run when they KNOW there will be news. and they will know before us, trust me.
Watch the volume tomorrow.
We need follow through with volume tomorrow.
If tomorrow is another good day and volume comes in something is imminent.
Expect an 8K or announcement by end of July as I predicted.
Who do you think set up KKR and CITI? Do you really think Blackstone no longer has any involvement? LOL How would you like to buy some swampland in FL?
Have you read the filings and documents over the last 7 years? I have. Have you studied WMI and WAMU since pre BK? I have.
Blackstone has done the legwork. Don't kid yourself.
They are involved still, in many ways.
Escrows will be paid out in phases.
I have never said we will get hundreds of billions now. GUT: I think we will see $10-15B very soon as cash assets are disbursed. The remaining illiquid assets will be paid over years as they are confirmed and liquidated at 50% fire sale prices. If you don't choose to believe this that's your choice. Fact is no one knows for sure!
But if you've been following this and reading the documents you should agree that our chances are very very good.
IMO the LT (assets) are the target and CITI, KKR, and Blackstone are the facilitators.
>Very good things in the offing for BOTH WMIHs and escrows.<
Yeah, right.......
Thanks for the posts AZ.
I agree we are very close now. This quiet period (coupled with the recent 1M+ share day "leak" we had) indicates something large afoot.
Correct on the LTIs.
Escrow holders should not care really about the SP. You will get that many more LTIs proportionally when they are doled out. Actually works out better for escrows to have a lower SP. Maybe that's why the big boys are manipulating this to hold the SP down. Hmmmm. Interesting theory that makes sense!
The weak hand blues.
Perfect, right where they want you. Remember KKR needed this to go back to 2.50. here it is. Deal time maybe?
Bye bye weak hands.
How ridiculous.
100% confident and unwavering.
No doubts. None.
Typical shakeout to scare off retailers.
The weak should sell quick and get out! LOL You know who you are.
Wrongo. Volume precedes price.
Lets see what happens in the coming days. I've been trading for years, unlike some here I guess.
Really? Over 1M shares today is weak?
I don't know what you people expect.
The stock trades 40-60K shares a day then all of a sudden over 1M traded in one day.
And you don't think that indicates something?
Too funny. yeah I guess you are right, it was weak! LOL
July will be a very big month.
After many false alarms and dates that have come and gone, it looks like we are finally at the point where some things will be happening, all good.
If you agree fine, and if you don't thats your business Let's see how things unfold but all's in place NOW.
If you've done your DD you should know that.
As bopfan once said,
A lot of people on these boards need a course in reading comprehension!
tanja, big things coming up soon.
AZ is right. Though few believe him.
natives are restless, bkshadow is relentless
This is really getting funny to watch! Do you people realize its the 4th of July? Relax and enjoy the day.
Announcement any day.
Nurse, is that you?
Not really. Hochberg was a minion of Holder, just as Walrath was. They did his bidding, on orders of Dimon's best friend, Obama.
But now it is unraveling plus they can't live with the guilt any longer. Dimon has cancer and Rosen has also been getting eaten up inside. Karma. It will all be "unsealed" very soon.
The WMILT assets are the "target".
That's the proper way to term it. So, we just don't know how this will all play out. Many scenarios!
The advantage for WMIH to buy assets from LT? Well, they would be sold at a fraction of actual value, say 50%. >That's a great deal!< Plus the money or shares that WMIH would pay LT for the assets goes into the LT coffers. That's US and WMIH big boys and hedgies for further investment back into WMIH to buy more assets, plus the 2.5%. As we have said, many escrow holders and hedgies would pump a lot of those escrow payouts back into WMIH. Essentially fueling OURSELVES! That's a crazy scenario but could be a possibility.
WMIH could also acquire someone that has the staff and systems in place to process and manage all of these transactions. That might be the first thing to hit. That could happen any day.
These are all wild ass theories. If LT has as many assets as we think, this could be huge. Let's see what happens huh? Estimates from those in the know conjecture $100-350B. Some assets could take time to confirm, some could happen quickly.
Other theories welcome. Of course the bashers say there are ZERO assets. They might be right. But based on Dimon's shot across the bow $30B "leak", there is likely more than meets the eye or he would not have even brought that up. Gee, look what I found, more assets! "Sealed" my ass!
Your best post ever nurse.
Not sure if you just smoked a joint or not, but I like you better now. Happy 4th and keep your chin up. Good things on the way. Seriously.
Kumbaya.
BINGO.
You hit the nail on the head. We are riding the coattails of the hedgies. And they do not lose. Nor will we.
Glad to be on board with them. $$$$$
Why do you think Banner Bank?
I'd be shocked if that happened. They are waiting for the LT assets and will pounce on those. Many theories.
Let's see who ends up being correct.
No one has been "right to date".
No one. This has to play out. Then we can look at the scorecard, but not until then. Pullllleeeeeeze?
So you think $30B loan assets can be had for a measly $1.9B huh?
LOL Some of the comments here are just, well, ridiculous.
Too funny.
Time will tell, as I said.
For now, no one is right or wrong. These are just theories, thus the purpose of a stock board. When the crap hits the fan, either way, then medals can be handed out. But I bet I'll be wearing one!
We all know WMI cannot "buy" LT.
But its assets ARE the target. That's what it means by target. Plain and simple.
Dimon and Obama are best friends.
Dimon was a huge donor. One hand washes the other. Walrath reported to Holder. Nuff said.
Pretty obvious statement by Rosen.
LT can and will sell its assets. Why is his statement looked at incredulously? This isn't rocket science. Plain and simple. Assets will be sold and proceeds distributed accordingly. Got it?