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Reptile, all is in place. Everyone in the know feels good about where things are headed so be patient for now.
the next couple months will be great for WMI and us investors. IMO
ron and csny more positive than ever about escrows. We know az is as well.
I agree with them 110%. All is aligned and the accountants are no doubt hammering out final details on asset #s. something big will break in the next couple months, def by EOY.
$10-40B soon IMO.
Sorry but Sept is a BFD. Off pinks!
Trading on the Nas will make a huge difference going forward. People want instant gratification these days but life isn't like that!
Relax people. There are other events happening very soon now. Geesh.
Once this gets through $5 and the insts can buy it's off to the races.
LG, in April Mike said don't hold your breath on the escrow question.
I don't think he'd say that today. We are that close. Skeptics say, well where the hell are the assets. $165B plus in assets just don't disappear now do they?
My worry remains the corruption of this administration and Dimon's relationship with it. I think as CSNY, that 10-40B is certain. The rest will likely somehow remain in Dimon's back pocket. Obama will see to it.
I hope I'm wrong but these guys are snakes.
Next week and beyond:
Now that my Sept prediction came to fruition....yes, it did (as did my end of July share prediction - despite attacks here)....this is what I see going forward.
Next week we will see a slow steady rise in SP. Nothing meteoric, sorry....(unless there is an announce).
Next will be the capitalization and M&A announce. Not sure who or when but it is coming very soon. ~~~then the stock takes off to new highs and well beyond.<<<<
Escrow LTIs will start to get paid any time now with sizable amounts by EOY. Small payouts to start with,then increasing in amount. The wildcard is our corrupt FDIC/Gov. No one can predict with certainty how the crooks will handle these assets THAT ARE OURS!!
GLTA. We are close to big things.
All just based on DD and logic.
It was no great prediction by me really. anyone following this closely the last 7 yrs could see this coming to a head now. Great times ahead if you own WMIH and escrows.
Timing of announcements.
So why now? Why did they uplist now?
easy answer - more announcements to come ~~~~~~Expect something about M&A any time now to coincide with the uplist. they did not go on the nasdaq to be there at $2.40 I can assure you.
Will an announce happen tomorrow at close or Mon at open? Maybe. Who knows. But it will be soon.
Not sure about escrow timing but that could be soon as well. I expect $10B off the bat. Then more to come.
Isn't September a great month. ;)
I'm just not the type to say I TOLD YOU SO.
Many big things could happen now.
Uplisting is done. M&A is next. Then info on assets and the start of share flow to LTIs and escrow payout commences.
Pity those who sold.....ahemmmm.....and didn't grant releases.
>>>>>The rest of 2015 is going to be a wonderful thing.<<<<<
September! Ha! Love it.
Escrows WILL get paid, but it will take some time yet. There may be an initial payment of several billion, but we don't know when that will commence yet.
Over time it will be the gift that keeps on giving.
Aaron, I never said escrows would be paid in Sept. I said things would start to happen in Sept. Escrows payouts will take some time yet IMO. lots of legalities involved. WMIH is a different story.
There will be a cascade of events soon. This is just the start. Much more to come once things begin to unfold.
yes, I have a shitload of WMIH and I do love my escrows more and more.
Hmmmm, is it September? ;)
Funny how they all think $165B went poof. Beyond laughable!
$2.22 to 2.60 is nothing?
September. :)
As I have said, watch Sept.
Not sure if this is THE deal, but things are starting to happen. Doubters beware.
AZ, I think the delay problem is this....
This would have all been resolved long ago and quietly swept under the rug if it were just the big boys involved. But....we are here too, much to their chagrin. because of the retail involvement the powers that be need to tread softly and carefully as not to cause a PR firestorm. The employees of WAMU and investors who lost it all, or did NOT grant releases, will raise holy hell when we all get our payouts. So they need to figure out how to manage this all.
My guess is most of all will be paid as payments/dividends to the LTIs so it is not a huge windfall payout. The logistics of this are all but settled now and expect $$ to flow soon, over time.
IMO
AZ, it is preposterous to think that JPM got hundreds of billions in assets for $1.8B yet so many here believe that....of course 90% of them are JPM shareholders. :)
Good to see you back. We are close.
Did I say September?
Did I say end of July....share distribution. Will you ever listen?
Excuse me, but did I say September?
Oh right, yes, that's what I meant. September.....
I have read the documents! Have you?
The answers are clear. Sorry you've invested in JPM and want to refute CONSTANTLY here. And the fact that there is NO lawsuit proves that negotiations are ongoing for said assets. Do you think the hedge funds are stupid??
So, where did all the assets go?
Why has the FDIC R not been closed out?
Did JPM get $150B-300B in assets for $1.8B?
You can't answer these questions because you do not know the answers.
Good point. Interest at 5% since 2008 is significant.
Illiquid assets will be sold for ~50% value.
Assuming $165B in assets we would get around $82B. Could take time for all those transactions. we just don't know how long, but by 2018 all must be resolved. Some of the low hanging fruit will happen quickly though.
IMHO
8 x par to come back.
My best guess is 50% of 165B. How long will it take is the question. $10B soon. The rest in stages over time. 165B did not vanish and for those who think it did, where did it go? LOL
The FDIC cannot terminate the R for WAMU, yet.
Too many assets need to be confirmed, but it is coming to conclusion. The fact that they have not shows this is a BFD.
Are you serious?!!!
Correct, it wasn't a test "per se".
However, it WAS. If you don't understand the nuance of this then you are hopeless.
All systems are go except a few EU issues which I'm sure "they" are working out.
Forwarded to me: CSNY post.
Sorry if this had been posted here already but even so it's worth seeing again. great post.
I replied about timing in another post.
As for next steps, this is what I expect to happen if we're right about the FDIC returning significant real estate assets:
First Transaction (Between WMIH and its wholly-owned subsidiary, WMIIC)
WMIH
Upstream (a) $550MM (estim. price for 80% of WMIH at current prices + 20%) and (b) $768MM price for 80% of WMIIC;
much or all of this money will come from IOUs WMIIC holds against WMIH)
Downstreams (c) 2.9B WMIH Shares (< 80% of its shares ) and (d) 80% of WMIIC to WMIIC
Second Transaction
M&A: WMIH buys a company ((probably insurance) to team up with WMRRC)
Third Transaction
WMIH capitalizes itself; commensurate price rise
Fourth Transaction (WMIIC and the LT transact business; WMIIC gives 80% of itself (formerly held by WMIH) to the LT and the LT gives it ~$35B in real estate assets it got from the FDIC*
WMIIC -------> WMILT: 80% of WMIIC to LT (owns illiquid property in WMIIC's custody)
*I discussed the potential value of illiquid assets (and consequences for legacy shareholders) some time ago, but here's a refresher:
Value of RE Interests in WMIIC
If you consider that a person usually puts down 20% on a mortgage, that $35B can be conservatively leveraged 4x (i.e., WMIIC borrows a $140B mortgage). That provides $175B in assets. If WMIIC makes 10% on that it's $17B on $35B in hard assets (that 49% return is an example of the power of leverage). Let's say KKR gets $2B as its investment management fee, leaving $15B. Deducting out, say, $5B as fees and expenses, it's left with $10B in the first year.
The LT gets 80% of that $10B or $8B. For each P that's $800 in income – per year. Not bad. (Each K gets $20 and each Q $2.00; MW would get $2MM annually.) At the end, when it sells the enterprise the $35B in assets may have doubled, and it disburses that $70B to LT interest holders. That would yield $7K per P, $175.50 per K, and $17.50 per Q (MW would get $17.5MM).
Value of WMIH
The 20% ($2B) the LT doesn't keep goes to WMIH. There are no taxes thanks to the NOLs and ignoring expenses (nominal) at $2B/3.5B that's $.57 per share. I calculate just under $12 per share, minimum. I say minimum because WMIH will have another business and I'm assuming it will own 100% of it. If that business generates, say, $1B annually, then there would be a corresponding increase in share price, so I guesstimate $18 per share.
WMIIC holds 80% of the 3.5B shares of WMIH, so it absorbs the value of the profits through the 2.9B shares. If you transitioned 1K Ps, you get about 290K WMIH shares (290 WMIH per P or 14.5x the number you got at transition (approx. 20)) as a result of the 2.9B shares WMIH issued to WMIIC. At $18 per share those 290K shares would be worth $5.22MM. WMIIC will hold on to those shares, so they won't be liquid for some time. Moreover, as I don't believe WMIH will pay dividends the gains will be reflected through price appreciation.
The remaining 600MM shares of WMIH belong to various shareholders, including Citi and KKR. Legacy retail shareholders are included in this group, of course. Such legacy shareholders of the original 200MM WMIH shares will sustain dilution, but they're compensated through (a) their LTIs and (b) the 2.9B WMIH shares held by WMIIC, as I explained. My hypothetical legacy shareholder who transitioned 1K Ps has 20K of these free trading shares and they are worth just under $400K.
Disclaimer
Of course, I don't know for certain that this is what is in the works, but if I were MW and Gene Davis, the foregoing represents what I would want to do rather than simply sell off $35B in assets. I think if they can get the IRS to go along, they will. The foregoing is an example of a scheme that would make the players (some of whom, like Citi, have friends in Washington) the most money, so I think something similar to what I've described will occur."
Forwarded to me: CSNY post.
Sorry if this had been posted here already but even so it's worth seeing again. great post.
I replied about timing in another post.
As for next steps, this is what I expect to happen if we're right about the FDIC returning significant real estate assets:
First Transaction (Between WMIH and its wholly-owned subsidiary, WMIIC)
WMIH
Upstream (a) $550MM (estim. price for 80% of WMIH at current prices + 20%) and (b) $768MM price for 80% of WMIIC;
much or all of this money will come from IOUs WMIIC holds against WMIH)
Downstreams (c) 2.9B WMIH Shares (< 80% of its shares ) and (d) 80% of WMIIC to WMIIC
Second Transaction
M&A: WMIH buys a company ((probably insurance) to team up with WMRRC)
Third Transaction
WMIH capitalizes itself; commensurate price rise
Fourth Transaction (WMIIC and the LT transact business; WMIIC gives 80% of itself (formerly held by WMIH) to the LT and the LT gives it ~$35B in real estate assets it got from the FDIC*
WMIIC -------> WMILT: 80% of WMIIC to LT (owns illiquid property in WMIIC's custody)
*I discussed the potential value of illiquid assets (and consequences for legacy shareholders) some time ago, but here's a refresher:
Value of RE Interests in WMIIC
If you consider that a person usually puts down 20% on a mortgage, that $35B can be conservatively leveraged 4x (i.e., WMIIC borrows a $140B mortgage). That provides $175B in assets. If WMIIC makes 10% on that it's $17B on $35B in hard assets (that 49% return is an example of the power of leverage). Let's say KKR gets $2B as its investment management fee, leaving $15B. Deducting out, say, $5B as fees and expenses, it's left with $10B in the first year.
The LT gets 80% of that $10B or $8B. For each P that's $800 in income – per year. Not bad. (Each K gets $20 and each Q $2.00; MW would get $2MM annually.) At the end, when it sells the enterprise the $35B in assets may have doubled, and it disburses that $70B to LT interest holders. That would yield $7K per P, $175.50 per K, and $17.50 per Q (MW would get $17.5MM).
Value of WMIH
The 20% ($2B) the LT doesn't keep goes to WMIH. There are no taxes thanks to the NOLs and ignoring expenses (nominal) at $2B/3.5B that's $.57 per share. I calculate just under $12 per share, minimum. I say minimum because WMIH will have another business and I'm assuming it will own 100% of it. If that business generates, say, $1B annually, then there would be a corresponding increase in share price, so I guesstimate $18 per share.
WMIIC holds 80% of the 3.5B shares of WMIH, so it absorbs the value of the profits through the 2.9B shares. If you transitioned 1K Ps, you get about 290K WMIH shares (290 WMIH per P or 14.5x the number you got at transition (approx. 20)) as a result of the 2.9B shares WMIH issued to WMIIC. At $18 per share those 290K shares would be worth $5.22MM. WMIIC will hold on to those shares, so they won't be liquid for some time. Moreover, as I don't believe WMIH will pay dividends the gains will be reflected through price appreciation.
The remaining 600MM shares of WMIH belong to various shareholders, including Citi and KKR. Legacy retail shareholders are included in this group, of course. Such legacy shareholders of the original 200MM WMIH shares will sustain dilution, but they're compensated through (a) their LTIs and (b) the 2.9B WMIH shares held by WMIIC, as I explained. My hypothetical legacy shareholder who transitioned 1K Ps has 20K of these free trading shares and they are worth just under $400K.
Disclaimer
Of course, I don't know for certain that this is what is in the works, but if I were MW and Gene Davis, the foregoing represents what I would want to do rather than simply sell off $35B in assets. I think if they can get the IRS to go along, they will. The foregoing is an example of a scheme that would make the players (some of whom, like Citi, have friends in Washington) the most money, so I think something similar to what I've described will occur."
Watch September. Remember I said end of July too and was right on the share test run.
We will see nice activity in Sept.
If you've followed this saga closely you know why.
September.
I predicted end of July something would happen.
And it did, suddenly we got some shares. Surprise!
Watch Sept.
Sept will not be THE month.
But there will be significant movement of some type.
I agree that we have a ways to go before the BIG resolution of this case, but next month will prove to be significant.
Sept will be a big month as I said.
We will finally see some movement. Watch for volume and price rise.
escrows are indeed golden. Very.
Billions are "hundreds of millions".
And, it WILL be billions.....no doubt.
All systems are go.
Do you really think the hedgies will wait? No way. The impediments are gone and the assets will be distributed soon. If anyone things these hedgies are going to sit back and wait for their $$$ you are crazy.
They have the money and legal power to make this happen now very soon. We are lucky to be riding their coattails.
Escrows et al are subject to 3.9% obama tax.
All investment gains now get the 3.9% obamacare tax. This includes the escrows, which will be taxed as long term cap gains.....