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FDIC and JPM are in a quandary.
How do they release massive billions? Think about it.......
The asset releases will happen sooner than most think. Tepper and his buddies have billions on hold. Don't you think they want that even more than we want ours?
This has been a tough wait but we are talking massive amounts of money and this will take some time. The hedgies are doing all they can so have fun riding their coattails. They are our allies in this mess.
VERY interesting LG! The R cannot conceal these assets much longer. If we see them you know the big boys are well aware of this. $299B is a lot of assets I think. Good catch. The key is how many are illiquid/need to be sold at 50% discount. Then we are back to the magic $150B that many espouse to.
Correct Evintos. Very simple. Don't understand why this is so puzzling to people.
Whether or not this latest new thing is THE DEAL or not, whoever they do acquire will be a massively profitable entity with these huge write offs in the bank. Capitalization is coming, and when it does WMI will go viral. Imagine......hold on to your hats. and your stock.
I thought we weren't getting anything......
Royal Dude, if true then yes, booking this any time now would allow them until 4/15/17. Interesting scenario. Guess anything is possible.
This is what we know: as of a couple weeks ago there was strong trading, big volume, rapid escalation in share price. Why?
Did someone know something or hear something? Likely yes. What is anyone's guess. Smart money knows but we don't.
My best guess is a deal has been done and will be announced any day. Could be a merger/acquisition, sale of NOLs, or IRS confirmation of Assets...or a combination of the above. I say the deal, whatever it is, needs to be locked in quickly now before the current administration changes the tax code for such transactions, at which time deals already done will likely be exempt.
All my WAG but it looks like the first salvo will be fired very soon now.
I say a deal may already be done.
Those wild price swings on huge volume showed something was happening. My guess is a deal is done and they are tying up loose ends.
I expect an announcement any day, or right after the 1st.
All my opinion.
Correct wowalters and LG.
We KNOW there are between $30 - 150B in assets. This is indisputable (except for those who don't hold escrows).
Bopfan is certain of at least $40B coming back. Most other experts feel the amount is $150B.
I say $30B is definite, but likely we will see much more over time. I have read the docs and filings for 8 yrs and have no doubts. The big question remains, how is the FDIC going to allow release without it causing a firestorm of controversy? People will want to know why the bank was seized in the first place, and why all the employees lost their jobs and life savings. Problem, yes.
I think Obama would like to wait this out till his term is over, but doubt he can. They could let these assets trickle out over time though. Most likely scenario. I expect $10B soon. Just my WAG.
Shares in tight supply today.
No one seems to want to sell. Gee I wonder why.
Expect volume to be very light the next two weeks unless the announcement is made. I suspect now they will wait till after the new year to announce but who knows. The deal is likely already done.
The volume and price positioning obviously means a deal is in the works.
They need it to get to a certain price for the deal.
Obvious for those who have seen deals like this in the past. Watch and learn.
KKR would ideally like to see 2.25. Doubt it gets there in time for them.
All classes will get paid from the assets. I just used the Ps as a benchmark example If $2.5B was to be disbursed. Who knows what the amount will be of the first volley?
The assets are carefully hidden, but not for long. They are there trust me.
Let's get on with it.
$2.5B currently in R to be distributed.
Could be the first salvo. $250 per P. Nice start
LG, certainly that is possible!
Many scenarios, all speculation at this point, but.....no doubt something big is going on. Very strange trading action is always an indicator. We have at least $40B sitting in escrow IMO. It can't sit there forever.
Yep, love my escrows. We'll see what transpires next week.
GLTAL
Expect a strong bounce back Monday.
Some fund had to unload 3M shares to close it out by end of year. Some have held since $1 or so. Market tanked so they took some money off the table. BFD
So why is the FDIC asking for $400MM to fund the receivership duties all of a sudden? Any ideas? Anyone?
I have one.....and it involves billions to be dealt with.
Oh BTW, did you release?
WMIH up 27% in last month I'd say is pretty significant. If you have stocks doing better than that please let me know. I'll send you a %.
diamond, I would like the escrows first too but that's doubtful. WMIH will be the first to run. If we could get at least some escrow $$ I think many would reinvest into WMIH which would cause it to fly, but that may not fit into their plan. I think they want WMIH down until the deal is done. IMO
$10 SP on M&A likely.
The first M&A, when it happens should take WMIH to $10 minimum. The value of the co would probably be $2-3B, so when (not if) the M&A happens expect quite a runup. now if the M&A involves the LT all bets are off and we could see a much higher SP depending of course.
interesting the FDIC has just requested additional "funding" (payola) of $400MM to assist in the handling of the receivership! Why do they suddenly need $400MM? They just know there are many billions to deal with and quite simply they want a cut! Sickening. With that they could hire an additional staff of 400 with salaries of $1M each! Ridiculous. This gov is so corrupt. But if we are to get many billions from R then give them their cut and get on with it.
LG you may be right about the deal that they originally went after being "the" one still to come.
I've been thinking this for a while. Could even be the LT. What makes me wonder is shortly after the plan failed they registered all shares with the SEC. was this the stumbling block that prevented consummation? The SEC told them no deal until registration. COULD BE.
I also think it is no coincidence that there have been these large volume days lately, while still holding the price down. Very strange accumulation action.
I still say someone knows something is imminent.
And yes, I too love my escrows!
I agree with bops recent #s. >>>>$40B minimum for escrows and the next leg up for WMIH around $12.50.<<<<<<<
I think once news hits(and yes it will be major) WMIH will go through 10 pretty quickly.
I have said $10B for escrows would happen sooner than people think. $40B may take a while but we'll get it and likely more IMO. I also think the whale buying that has happened recently indicates something is happening and expect an announcement is imminent. Hopefully this deal doesn't get screwed up like the last one!
All IMO.
LG et al, look.....
I know it has been tough and frustrating but......we are close to a very major turning point.
I will no longer give dates here but trust me that this is going to get very interesting soon.
The big question is, did you release? Well.....did you?
WMI holders will be quite happy soon, escrows or not. mark this post.
Some will still disbelieve.
YKWYA
Taxes on escrow gains.
My understanding is that since there is zero basis and this is considered a "settlement" like an insurance type settlement, that it may not be taxable at all when paid out. I have heard this from several. Of course if you ask the IRS they will say it is taxable as a cap gain, but in reality it is really a settlement and as such likely not taxable at all.
Check with your own advisor, but if they do your taxes for you they will advise cap gains because their name is on the tax doc and they don't want to take a chance.
The good news is, even if you claim it as cap gains, the first $450K is at 15% depending on your income, and anything over that is at 20%. Still much better than ordinary income.
Do what you wish or what your advisor tells you is best, but I will not be paying tax on those funds and am willing to challenge it because it is rightfully a settlement.
Escrow magic number = $150B.
That could take some time. Certainly $10-30B in cash will hit escrows soon though IMO. The rest of the illiquid assets will be sold for around 50-60% of value. A nice sum for those who released.
get ready for a Merry Christmas.
Expecting another strong day based on volume the last two days. If the volume were anemic I'd say anything could happen. Over 2 MM shares in two days is very strong.
I still say we'll see a PR. These buys are from smart money (the secretary's boyfriend or brother in law, etc.). Just the way things work. Leakage, covertly and untraceable by the SEC, at least that's what they hope.....
Looks like follow through tomorrow. $2.75 is next hurdle but once we break $3 it's off to the races this time. The deal may indeed consummate now for close this year.
I cannot imagine them waiting till 2016 since they already tried to push through one deal. This is the year they are targeting.
Nice movement. This is what we've been waiting for, a leak. Smart money knows before us. A deal is likely already done. GLTAL
How much longer can they withhold assets is the question. Something surely must be going on behind the scenes as we speak. We are in the 11th hour folks.
There have been some delays due to registration of shares issue. Now that is cleared up and we are ready to move forward. In the meantime they take out stops and shake out weak hands selling for holiday money. The big boys are no dummies and have a lot of patience for the big payout to come.
If you can't stand the heat get out of the kitchen. Those who wait it out will be handsomely rewarded soon.
Patience. Things are in the works.
WMI wants the deal done in 2015.
Obviously. Or they would have waited for 2016 to attempt the last deal. This is the year for tax reasons.
Expect something to come across the wires soon
Could be a big week coming up.
The stock registration and recent revelations of large holdings indicates something is near. Very near.
Follow the money. Simple.
I said July, Sept, and Nov only.
I was right.
No, I specifically said the following:
I said watch July. Then we got a share dist.
I said Sept. Then we uplisted.
I said Nov. Now things MAY be starting to happen.
Those were my only predictions. Go back and read my posts and prove me wrong.
Watch for volume to come in.
Volume is too weak to confirm, but of course no one wants to sell here so shares are very tough to come by. Sooner or later the shorts need to cover and the whales need to buy. Watch volume....then price will rise dramatically if volume comes in. Simple.
Ahahahahaha! You are too funny.
Did someone say November?
Just checking to see if someone was saying things would start to happen in Nov. Any thoughts on who predicted this?
It's possible "the deal" is back on.
There were rumors that they were still trying to work things out so who knows. No doubt there is a heightened level of activity. If volume starts to increase suddenly we'll know something big's ready to hit.
Perfect time to release the billions.
With all the major news plus the holiday this would be a great time to release the billions so as not to cause a big uproar. The government is no doubt concerned about that so doing it now could make sense.