Rawnoc,
I agree; the share price numbers for AMRN have been pathetic this year. In fact, they've been pathetic, globally, since last July, when AMRN's price hit an intraday high of $15.96 on July 19th. Since then the price has fallen by over $9/share, to the detriment of longs' portfolio values.
In this market, and with bios generally and particularly with Amarin, WS wants a steady stream of positive news. In the absence of that, shorts are able, with smaller companies, to have a field day--and they have with AMRN. To make things worse, Joe Z indicated that 'good things' were on the near-term horizon last fall, which many took to mean a buy-out or at least partnership for the Vascepa launch.
When those failed to materialize, many shorter horizon investors sold. The price plummeted by nearly 50% when the carnage was done. Once burned, twice shy investors have been slow to return, strengthening the shorts' hand. However, it's also good to note that smart investing is not about following the herd.
Looking objectively at Amarin's sole product (and to be clear, being a one-trick pony itself entails considerable risk), Vascepa is hitting on all its marks:
* It has a robust and growing portfolio of patents, providing protection against generic or other competition for nearly 20 years.
* The launch is going remarkably well for a small bio, with significant and consistent scrip growth week-over-week and month-over-month.
* Management has hit its targets regarding launch, and also regarding its next sNDA application with the FDA.
* While the NCE delay is frustrating, until it is decided, they have exclusivity; once decided they will have NME at a minimum. The evidence and analysis of changes in FDA determination at the FDA strongly suggest NCE will be granted, but the new criteria need to be fully vetted and in place before a final determination will be issued. As someone very familiar with the workings of government agencies, these delays are common with new rulemaking. * Amarin is sitting on more than enough cash to get through this year and beyond, without dilution.
* Most importantly, not only is Vascepa best-in-class for the very high tg indicstion, but it shows tremendous promise across a broad range of indications with large populations in need of efficacious treatment, including diabetes, mental health, and potentially a whole class of inflammatory dirorders, as well as cardiovascular disease.
However, the eternal ally of shorts is Uncertainty, which allows for injections of copious amounts of Fear and Doubt. No amount of objecting to flawed or outright false arguments is going to stop them, though the exercise in sunlighting facts, whether for the long or short side, is always a net positive for true investors.
I expect that AMRN's price is going to struggle until there are another few months of steady scrip growth, or until NCE is determined. I don't expect significant upward momentum until close to December, when the ANCHOR sNDA will be determined. That decision, if positive, will be a large catalyst for big pharma interest, as it offers a market opportunity many multiples greater than does the MARINE indication.
While I am among those underwater, with a cost average of $7.34, I am buying opportunistically at these levels, and expect to continue adding over the next 6 months or so. IMO, there is an ongoing opportunity for longs and shorts to make money here, but the greatest and least risky opportunity is on the long side.