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Delparantag! No one is talking about it but this is the one. If the new concept begins to pan out, mark my words, we see a billion MC overnight. I'm going to be signing off again for a while but I'll leave you with this to ponder.. COPD affects 20+MM people ( US), it is the 3rd largest killer in the US, and there isn't much in the way of treatment.. stop smoking, bronchodilators, steroids, you get the picture. POC on this and I'm certain we'ld see a Baker Brothers or QVT Financial step in fast! not to mention Big Pharma..There's a reason Leo closed with this one. Who was paying attention.. Audios for now.
The morning of the last conference the assets acquisition was PR'd premarket and we had a big gap up. Volume was one of the biggest on record. As we approached the conference time the stock was already selling off. I remember it trading over 2.30 and then plunging into the 1.90's only to close a little over 2, barely positive. Today is very different.
FYI, last time one of the slides was changed. We had leaked slides and at the conference, which I went to, the Kevetrin slide was different. I posted from the conference about it.
That's correct. I corresponded with Leo around cohort 7 at which time they had yet to test p21 activation for higher doses. They were planning on doing so but I doubt they would have those results this soon.
Lol. Well, I remember Leo was pissed last time when the slides were leaked so you never know..
The slides don't seem to be available any longer. I wonder if any of them are getting swapped out.
Looks like we might see 1.40 or even 1.20. That would actually be a good thing. If some big boys like what's going on here they'll drive the price down to accumulate. If we see 1.20 I will double down!
Iam, don't take my post out of context. I'm not inferring that dalbavance is better. I'm well informed and have no doubt we have a game changing antibiotic. In fact B has become my major focus and reason for holding. My point is that Durata already completed phase three and yet the company is only valued at about 2X CTIX. I don't post on this board much anymore because too many posters have their heads in the clouds and can't accept a more restrained and realistic outlook.
Toot, you based your whole response on misquoting me. Read my post again. I only said "deeper pipelines" . That said, I've been a shareholder here for a long time. I was one of two people who even went to a conference where CTIX was presenting last year. I posted those notes and many emails from Leo on this board. Maybe you weren't an investor yet if you can't recall that. I am frustrated with CTIX and you should be also. Would you like me to repost an email I received from Leo a few months back where he said that we were presenting at ASCO? He has over promised and under delivered on many occasions. That said his acquisition of Brilacidin was genious and has kept me here. It's this board however that needs a reality check with some of the numbers floated around.
The market isn't nuts and its certainly valuing B. In fact, I believe if it weren't for B, CTIX would probably be trading at a buck or less right now. I'm holding half a dozen other bios that have about the same market cap as CTIX yet they are further along in trials and have deeper pipelines. All of them trade on a higher exchange and have big institutional holders. The Baker Brothers are large holders of one and sit on the board. Big pharma signed a 500MM deal with another. The fact is that K is still working its way through a P1 that has progressed much slower than anticipated. Further more, we are eight months in the dark ( since the september conference) on efficacy biomarkers that were promised us. P has been an absolute disaster and we have lost crucial time against other drugs in an already crowded space. Brilacidin is half way through a P2/b. Durata has already succeeded in P3 and has initiated a P3/b for single dosing dalbavacin. So how do you figure your hypothesis? That said I'm still a large shareholder here but let's keeps it real.
Unfortunately we gapped yesterday and CTIX never met a gap it didn't need to fill. Lol
KMBJN, I can answer some of your questions with this email response I received from Leo last year:
Hi Dean,
First Prurisol is a prodrug of Abacavir, thus it should have fewer side effects. In addition the expected dosage is a fraction to that of the prescribed dosage of Abacavir. Many of the present side effects are dosage dependent, meaning the greater the dosage the more side effects.
The exception is HLA-B*5701, which the FDA would not consider dosage dependent. Therefore we will exclude these patients from taking Prurisol.
In conclusion, it is our belief that Prurisol is a safer option than the alternative drugs. Of course the clinical trials are needed to test for safety and efficacy in humans.
I hope this answers your questions.
Best regards,
Leo Ehrlich
Lol, some of you dont get it. Dont you want more people to hear our story? Google dalbavancin and todays PR comes up on the first page. Google ABSSSI and the February PR is on the first page. The more PR's the better.
Sure, here's a thought. Now we know why we haven't heard anything about an independent board. Lol. Kevetrin has gone nowhere for three months and P has gone nowhere for a year. I've had quite a few home runs lately which makes laughing at this dog easier. Today's PR is priceless. Lol
Certainly. Leo is raising money via Aspire. It's about time, i'ld say. Every time I say this I get blasted but by now it should be pretty obvious. The quarterly will show it. Where else is the volume coming from? This is two days of Aspire hitting the bid. Take it to the bank. It is what it is. At some point the market will not be able to ignore the progression of our candidates, even on OTC. Until then, be frustrated my friends. Oh wait, it's be thirsty my friends. :)
58, you are spot on. Of course there isn't proof but i would suggest that it is obvious and unfortunate. CTIX has been unable to gain traction for any sustained move for over a year in one of the best biotech markets ever. It is frustrating to say the least especially when considering the progress. Every PR is accompanied by significant selling. Look at todays volume. While I appreciate the updates I am concerned that this may be coordinated. Simply asking the question why PR that 14 patients have been dosed? This is a bit odd. Then look at the volume. If I didn't have such strong conviction for Brilacidin and hope for Kevetrin I would sell. I have had half a dozen other biotech holdings double while I keep making excuses for CTIX.
I sent Leo an email months ago asking if he would look to go after BARDA funding and now we have the answer. Good news.
On a another note, in what has been one of the great biotech markets in history, companies routinely see 10-20% pops on preclinical data, conference announcements, or no news at all. News of patient dosing for a new mid stage trial can easily send a small bio up 20-50% in some cases. We get a penny. Unbelievable. I wonder what's going through Leo's head? Lol
Three in California and one in Nevada. You claim to be a doctor but you don't know to check the clinical trials site??
Yes, this is a pleasant surprise. I was anticipating 10-20 per month at best which is why i disagreed with you on a prior posting regarding trial duration and results. You may end up being right. Leo would be going on feedback from the principle investigators.
The impression i got from Leo is that a deal this year on eye or ear infections is likely. He specifically told me that as confirmatory data emerges from the 2b trial this is the direction. He wont partner on ABSSSI until at least top line data but there will be assessments along the way which when combined with additional preclinical data should be enough to partner on eye and or ear. That was my take from a few correspondences.
Ahrdee, what seems to be lost here is the significance of Dr Menons role. It's ALL about selection. This is Menons gift. Once the compound enters the clinic it's autopilot. It either does what it's hoped to do or it does not. Make no mistake about it, Dr Menon's role is arguably the most important one hence the Presidents Recognition Award. his Have a great day!
I completely agree. Eom
I have a feeling NNVC may explode to the up side. If we get something good out of them we could see CTIX trade back in a hurry too. I was actually contemplating picking up a few thousand shares of NNVC earlier but didn't since I was going to be in the air. Bummer.
Just touched down. Wow. Lots of chat. NNVC is halted with news pending. The SA author may have some problems soon from an overt manipulation. Again, I don't know anything about NNVC but that article was quite over the top. It'll be interesting to see what news comes out of NNVC.
Here's my two cents which is about all its worth lol. This is the nature of this ( small bios ) market. There might be a little collateral damage here but that will be a buying opportunity. These hit jobs are typical. Regarding the comments about Menon- well, the article doesn't say anything different than what is on the website. I wasn't here in 2008 so I don't care. I care about now. The only thing that matters now is pipeline advancement. The relevant conversation is about where K is now as well as B and P. That said what is happening with NNVC is why up listing is irrelevant without institutional support. Too many people have been putting the cart before the horse. NNVC has a BOD and trades on a higher exchange but it has almost 0 institutional sponsorship. Why is that? As our pipeline advances I will look for institutions to step in. Plenty can buy without up listing and now it should be clear to most that up listing does not mean much by itself. CTIX will trade higher as our drugs work they way though trials but if I don't see the natural involvement of institutional players I will sell at 4 or 6. Its pretty simple really. Gotta catch my flight so have a great day!
Ouch! NNVC is getting crushed. Doesn't BK have a big position there?
Primary completion is October, 8 months from now. Its because of the recruiting which i said months ago. I won't mention any names but there are a lot of posters here with ridiculous expectations. Some are even moderators. Lol
On another note and a great sign, the last time CTIX was promoted was the day of the R & R conference, September 9th, and it does not appear that it was a paid for promotion. The last confirmed promotion that was paid for by CTIX was over a year ago, in January of 2013. This is another positive signal that many people don't consider but should. :)
Has this been discussed? I have been traveling quite a bit and haven't been present for much of the past month and a half. Looking over recent developments it seems to me that Kevetrin is getting very interesting. Why would Leo delay cohort 7 to modify the trial protocol ? Seems to me this is all the confirmation we need that Kevetrin will reach well into the therapeutic zone, maybe even higher than Dr Menon anticipated. At 30mg per hour and 6 hours of dosing we have 180mg. Cohort 7 is set at 165mg. Leo could have weighted until after cohort 7 to amend. I am also wondering if U of B could be privy to some information regarding an efficacy signal as they are gearing up ahead of MTD. Two new drugs are entering the clinic any day. When I see garbage like PVCT trade up to a market cap of 700MM and GALE currently over 500MM I have no doubt that we may see a 3 or 4 dollar number here, soon. Have a great day! Go Seattle!
Leo answered 3 questions -
1) Will there be an ASCO presentation this year on Kevetrin? Brilicidin OM?
Of course!
2) Why haven't we had an update on p21? When will we?
The tests are expensive and we were waiting for these higher patient doses. I cant give you an exact date but i am now planning to do such probably after this cohort.
3) Will you attempt to parter Brilicidin before a 2b readout?
Not for ABSSSI. For other indications where there is significant upfront costs we would look to do such as soon as more data from the phase 2 trial is available.
I think the 2b takes longer than most think but we are all just guessing. It's not the trial itself but the recruitment that will take time. If I'm not mistaken the first trial took a year and the patient recruitment rate in CEE countries is significantly higher than here. I'm hoping for a parter to take Brilicidin OM into the clinic, not post phase 2.
Let's hope we get a partner for one of the other indications because results from the 2b are a long way off. I think that may be why they are really pushing Brilicidin OM.
Seems to me that K is humming along in line with preclinical data which is outstanding! and that the "perfect poster" as Menon put it will come at ASCO.
Until then it seems the plan is to educate the investing public ( who don't seem to get it yet ) that Brilicidin is game changing and a relatively de risked mega blockbuster in the making.
I think picking up Daniel Jorgensen was huge! He will get us the institutional investors.
Have a great day everyone.
Progressive, I came in 5 min late. Did I miss anything on K? I didn't hear anything on p21.
Great presenter. Very knowledgeable, prepared, smart. He is super high energy. He speaks to the lay person but somehow doesn't dumb it down. He's going to generate a lot of interest in what we are doing!
Sounds like Daniel Jorgensen is giving the presentation.
Just stated that you would expect these patients to maybe get through only 1 cycle because of how sick they are. That should answer some questions regarding the PR.
Yup. I've been saying for six months to ignore this guy. On another note, I fired off an email to Leo regarding cohort 7. Our update is long overdue. The safety committee was to meet in mid December. Cohort initiation and dosing has been PR'd in the past so I don't see why we would have to wait for the conference as I'm expecting a lot of meat then. I would think Leo would have PR'd an increase in dosage. I'll let the board know if I get a reply.