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Hi Clay, Does your group have a chat room?
OXBT Weekly Flag Pole https://www.tradingview.com/v/MWl2D8FQ/
Marry Christmas and Happy New Years FNMA board.
Scared money does not make money. Good luck for I will be either going back up and beyond 52 week high or down with ship. Either way I have made my decision what about you?
The game is to be smart. No stock to big to play. Only fear is something you imagine. To all that are fearful life is full of gains for those that don't block themselves from fear.
OXBT could see 3.50 this week.
Thank you Pharaoh. You were smart to dissect the chart before making your decision. I see now strong support between 4.98 - 5.03 on two week chart. Just like you said using the bollinger band.
Thanks again Pharaoh.
OXBT The Inverted Hammer candlestick formation occurs mainly at the bottom of downtrends and is a warning of a potential reversal upward. It is important to note that the Inverted pattern is a warning of potential price change, not a signal, in and of itself, to buy.
FNMA & FMCC Right now, there is no game plan for replacing them. We are just drifting, one more example of federal government dysfunction. Unless we develop an effective game plan for replacing them, Fannie and Freddy will be with us indefinitely.
http://www.dailyherald.com/article/20131214/entlife/712149969/
Nice chart. I saw the same last night just hope we are right for Bulls to take back.
Kuhn excellent example for technical charting. Every example you showed proves your point.
Symmetrical Triangle (Continuation)
The symmetrical triangle, which can also be referred to as a coil, usually forms during a trend as a continuation pattern. The pattern contains at least two lower highs and two higher lows. When these points are connected, the lines converge as they are extended and the symmetrical triangle takes shape. You could also think of it as a contracting wedge, wide at the beginning and narrowing over time.
While there are instances when symmetrical triangles mark important trend reversals, they more often mark a continuation of the current trend. Regardless of the nature of the pattern, continuation or reversal, the direction of the next major move can only be determined after a valid breakout. We will examine each part of the symmetrical triangle individually, and then provide an example with Conseco.
1.
Trend: In order to qualify as a continuation pattern, an established trend should exist. The trend should be at least a few months old and the symmetrical triangle marks a consolidation period before continuing after the breakout.
2.
Four (4) Points: At least 2 points are required to form a trend line and 2 trend lines are required to form a symmetrical triangle. Therefore, a minimum of 4 points are required to begin considering a formation as a symmetrical triangle. The second high (2) should be lower than the first (1) and the upper line should slope down. The second low (2) should be higher than the first (1) and the lower line should slope up. Ideally, the pattern will form with 6 points (3 on each side) before a breakout occurs.
3.
Volume: As the symmetrical triangle extends and the trading range contracts, volume should start to diminish. This refers to the quiet before the storm, or the tightening consolidation before the breakout.
4.
Duration: The symmetrical triangle can extend for a few weeks or many months. If the pattern is less than 3 weeks, it is usually considered a pennant. Typically, the time duration is about 3 months.
5.
Breakout Time Frame: The ideal breakout point occurs 1/2 to 3/4 of the way through the pattern's development or time-span. The time-span of the pattern can be measured from the apex (convergence of upper and lower lines) back to the beginning of the lower trend line (base). A break before the 1/2 way point might be premature and a break too close to the apex may be insignificant. After all, as the apex approaches, a breakout must occur sometime.
6.
Breakout Direction: The future direction of the breakout can only be determined after the break has occurred. Sounds obvious enough, but attempting to guess the direction of the breakout can be dangerous. Even though a continuation pattern is supposed to breakout in the direction of the long-term trend, this is not always the case.
7.
Breakout Confirmation: For a break to be considered valid, it should be on a closing basis. Some traders apply a price (3% break) or time (sustained for 3 days) filter to confirm validity. The breakout should occur with an expansion in volume, especially on upside breakouts.
8.
Return to Apex: After the breakout (up or down), the apex can turn into future support or resistance. The price sometimes returns to the apex or a support/resistance level around the breakout before resuming in the direction of the breakout.
9.
Price Target: There are two methods to estimate the extent of the move after the breakout. First, the widest distance of the symmetrical triangle can be measured and applied to the breakout point. Second, a trend line can be drawn parallel to the pattern's trend line that slopes (up or down) in the direction of the break. The extension of this line will mark a potential breakout target.
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:symmetrical_triangle
Hope this goes back down so I can get back in.
FMCC Sold all my shares today good luck board. Looks to be red next week. I might buy back in if I see this hit 2.30 again.
Sorry brother I don't see green in our future next week and defiantly not today. Good luck and keep to your goals.
FNMA sold all share today good luck board hope the best for everyone. Looks to be red next week.
I saw at least three huge blocks go through from 100K to 400K at key levels. Someone wants this back up.
Thanks Blanka Keep your eye on STO now. We should be heading back to 3 tomorrow. My ceiling is high what about yours ?
This song just came on radio.
The question is what charts are you reading? FMCC has closed above 2.50 and FNMA has closed above 2.68. Key levels. Charts not wrong only users of charts. You tell me why today was important to close above these levels. I have the answer and waiting to see if you do.
HI Blanka another dump in AM then sick bounce mark this post again.
FNMA Going to have sick bounce tomorrow after dump.
FNMA once done with pullback sideways movement 3.10 to next leg up.
Look for AM dump back to 2.30 red to green day tomorrow. You can mark this post we will see 2.30 again.
Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac to Sell Insurance Biz
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fannie-mae-freddie-mac-sell-210503953.html
Fairholme Capital Management LLC, a Miami-based equity fund manager, has recently declared its intention to acquire the insurance businesses of Freddie Mac (FNMA) and Fannie Mae (FMCC). The move forms part of the company’s plan to expand its business in the insurance sector. The deal will come in exchange of equities worth $52 billion to be issued by the fund manager.
Underlying the proposed plan, Fairholme Capital Management will exchange Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac preferred stock worth $34.6 billion. Additionally, the company will raise a sum of $17.3 billion from preferred stockholders and rights offerings.
We believe that apart from generating inorganic growth, the acquisition will have other benefits for Fairholme Capital Management as well. It is worth noting that Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae were troubled mortgage lenders that were bailed out by the government during the financial crisis and preferred stock worth $34.6 billion was floated in the market for the recovery.
Fairholme Capital Management is the largest holder of these preferred shares. However, the future of these shares seems uncertain as the government plans to liquidate Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae in the near future. Both Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae’s performances have improved after the financial crisis and therefore the preferred stock buybacks would actually result in lower profits for Fairholme Capital Management.
Hence, to prevent this, Fairholme Capital Management has proposed the aforementioned recapitalization program of converting the preferred stock into equities. This will be similar to the government’s planned liquidation program for Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae in the near future. Moreover, it will relieve the government from regular supervision of these firms.
The deal is subject to approval from the Federal Housing Finance Agency, U.S. Treasury Department and other investors in Fannie and Freddie.
At present, both Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae have a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). Other financial services stocks with the same Zacks Rank include BankUnited, Inc. (BKU) and Comerica, Inc. (CMA).
Read the Full Research Report on FMCC
Read the Full Research Report on FNMA
Read the Full Research Report on CMA
Read the Full Research Report on BKU
Fairholme proposes $52B recap for GSEs: WSJ
http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/1411742
FNMA all aboard
Sold my all FNMA today and bough FMCC today. FMCC is going to pass FNMA keep it quiet FNMA pps are in denial and they don't like to hear this.
Great article glad you posted. I like this part.
Nearing a milestone
When Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bled billions in cash in the immediate aftermath of the mortgage market collapse, the prevailing view was that the GSEs would never be able to pay back their massive obligations to the Treasury.
But thanks to a major turnaround, both GSEs are nearing the point of giving the government back 100% of its investment. According to Reuters, Fannie Mae's latest payment will put it within $2.2 billion of this milestone, and Freddie Mac's payment will actually have the government ahead by a small $9 million.
Legal battles
The government now faces a plethora of lawsuits relating to the bailouts of Fannie and Freddie, but among the highest profile and most relevant to the Sweep Amendment is the challenge by Perry Capital.
http://www.dailyfinance.com/2013/11/10/another-week-with-fannie-and-freddie/
Also read:
Congressional Dysfunction May Save Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
http://www.dailyfinance.com/2013/10/27/congressional-dysfunction-may-save-fannie-mae-and/?source=edddlftxt0860001
FMCC NET ZERO?
Freddie Mac, in a statement on Thursday, said that it would deposit $30.4 billon to the Treasury as dividends in December, after the company posted record profits, aided by $23.9 billion in tax-related gains in the third quarter. With the December payment, Freddie would have paid the Treasury $9 million in excess of what it received during the bailout.
http://www.ibtimes.com/fannie-mae-freddie-mac-have-repaid-most-bailout-money-us-government-taxpayers-get-dividends-next#.Un5T9x4_I_o.twitter
With the December payment, Freddie would have paid the Treasury $9 million in excess of what it received during the bailout.
http://www.ibtimes.com/fannie-mae-freddie-mac-have-repaid-most-bailout-money-us-government-taxpayers-get-dividends-next#.Un5T9x4_I_o.twitter
5 Things You Probably Didn't Know About Fannie Mae
by Patrick Morris, The Motley Fool Nov 9th 2013 12:40PM
Updated Nov 9th 2013 12:42PM
http://www.dailyfinance.com/2013/11/09/5-things-you-didnt-know-about-fannie-mae/
Following the financial crisis and subsequent government bailout and FHFA-run conservatorship, Fannie Mae is often in the news for all the wrong reasons. Yet, despite its continual coverage in the press, there are five surprising things you likely didn't know about this company.
1. It's enormous -- and growing
Many have complained that the largest banks in the country have grown too big -- as Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase each have over $2 trillion (yes -- with a T) in assets, and Citigroup and Wells Fargo aren't that far behind them, as shown in the chart below:
Assets ($billions)
JPMorgan Chase
$2,439
Bank of America
$2,126
Citigroup
$1,884
Wells Fargo
$1,441
Goldman Sachs
$939
Source: Federal Reserve
While those are certainly staggering -- consider that Fannie Mae has $3.3 trillion in assets -- an amount that is almost equal to Wells Fargo and Citigroup combined. Not only is it huge, it's actually getting bigger -- in June, it grew assets by roughly 2% over its December levels.
While 2% growth doesn't sound like much, it equated to roughly $60 billion, which means the amount of its asset growth through the first six months of this year would make it the 37th largest bank in the country, ahead of Huntington Bancshares.
2. It makes money -- a lot of it
While Fannie Mae is enormous in size, the amount of money it makes is also quite staggering. Consider that, through the first six months of 2013, Fannie Mae earned over $20 billion in pre-tax income, and in all of 2012, it earned $17.2 billion. That amount is more than General Electric ($13.6 billion in 2012) and Wal-Mart ($17.0 billion).
Although many believe that Fannie Mae is a floundering enterprise thanks to its numerous government bailouts, and while, in reality, it is still principally controlled by its conservator, it certainly is no slouch when it comes to making money.
3. It doesn't issue mortgages -- it guarantees and buys them
On the subject of its income, it's easy to think that Fannie Mae actually issues mortgages. Yet, that is not how it functions or makes its money. Instead, Fannie Mae makes its money not from issuing mortgages, but by buying them from banks, and guaranteeing them.
In the instance of it buying the mortgage, it will then bundle a whole host of mortgages together and create a mortgage-backed security, known as an MBS. It will then either sell MBS certificates (taking a cut of the proceeds), or hold onto the MBS itself and collect all of the payments and interest from the mortgages.
When it guarantees a loan, Fannie Mae looks at the characteristics of the borrower, and essentially provides insurance to the MBS investor saying that, if the borrower can't pay his or her mortgage, it will cover the rest -- for a fee, of course.
4. It doesn't hurt the mortgage market -- it helps it
While many may think that Fannie Mae is an evil government entity bent on bringing down the United States economy, it actually provides a great service to the U.S. By guaranteeing loans, it provides ever-important liquidity in the mortgage markets. Without its guarantees and purchases, many banks would be less willing to issue 30-year mortgages that allow millions to buy homes each year.
Yet, not only does it help support the mortgage market, in general, it also helps those who are less fortunate and have low incomes. Fannie Mae has housing goals in place that dictate 23% of the mortgages it purchases must be from those designated as low income, which is defined as people who have less than 80%of the median area income, and 7% must be from those who have very-low income (less than 50% of the median). This, too, helps incentivize banks to make mortgages to those people who they may otherwise underserve.
Certainly, Fannie Mae played its part, and has its fair share of culpability, related to the housing bubble and corresponding financial crisis -- but at its core, it provides a beneficial economic good to the United States housing market.
5. It doesn't care about its shareholders or debt holders... or really anyone else
In September of 2008, both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were placed into conservatorship and are now run by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). According to the FHFA, this means that, "As conservator, the [FHFA] assumed all the powers of the shareholders, directors, and officers, with the goal of preserving and conserving the assets and property of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac."
Although it is in conservatorship -- you can still buy stock in Fannie Mae. Yet, on the concerning side of things, the annual report from Fannie Mae includes this somewhat alarming quote:
Our directors do not have any fiduciary duties to any person or entity except to the conservator. Accordingly, our directors are not obligated to consider the interests of the company, the holders of our equity or debt securities or the holders of Fannie Mae MBS unless specifically directed to do so by the conservator.
While Fannie Mae ultimately provides a necessary and helpful service to help support the housing and mortgage markets, in the end, that is its only purpose. It will do whatever it takes to preserve itself first, and then meet that goal.
Beyond Fannie Mae
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The article 5 Things You Probably Didn't Know About Fannie Mae originally appeared on Fool.com.
Ocwen Misses on Earnings & Revs
by Zacks Equity Research Published on November 01, 2013 | No Comments OCN HLSS FMCC FNMA
http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/113258/Ocwen-Misses-on-Earnings-amp-Revs
READ BETWEEN THE LINES
Ocwen Financial Corp’s (OCN - Analyst Report) third-quarter 2013 adjusted earnings per share of 93 cents lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.13. However, this compared favorably with 37 cents earned in the year-ago quarter.
The lower-than-expected results were primarily due to higher expenses, partially offset by a top-line growth. However, a strong balance sheet and good liquidity were the tailwinds.
After considering charges for amortization of mortgage servicing rights associated with acquisition of ResCap and OneWest, Ocwen’s net income came in at $67.0 million or 44 cents per share compared with $51.4 million or 37 per share in the prior-year quarter.
Performance Details
Ocwen’s total revenue witnessed significant growth on a year-over-year basis to $531.2 million from $232.7 million in the prior-year quarter. This was driven by increased servicing and sub-servicing fees, gain on loans held for sale and other income. However, total revenue missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $594.0 million.
Interest income rose significantly year over year to $5.4 million, while interest expenses rose 88.4% from the prior-year quarter to $110.1 million.
Operating expenses were $346.3 million, up substantially from $92.8 million in the prior-year quarter. This was due to increase in all expense components on a year-over-year basis.
Income from operations came in at $185.0 million, rising 32.1% from $140.0 million in the year-ago quarter.
As of Sep 30, 2013, Ocwen recorded cash of $357.5 million, down from $439.7 million as of Jun 30, 2013. Further, total assets came in at $5.3 billion, declining from $7.1 billion as of Jun 30, 2013.
In the reported quarter, Ocwen completed 32,051 loan modifications (up 14.0% year over year), with Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) constituting 48% of the completed modifications.
Along with the earnings release, Ocwen announced a share repurchase authorization of $500 million through Jul 2016.
Other Developments
In Oct 2013, Ocwen sold servicing advances and the rights to receive the servicing fees on loans with UPB of nearly $10 billion to Home Loan Servicing Solutions, Ltd. (HLSS - Snapshot Report) for $309.4 million.
In Aug and Sep 2013, Ocwen acquired $30 billion of unpaid balance (UPB) related to Freddie Mac (FMCC) and Fannie Mae (FNMA) loans from OneWest Bank. The other non-agency portfolio of approximately $42 billion of UPB is expected to be transferred and closed by Nov 1.
In Sep 2013, Ocwen converted 100,000 shares of Series A Perpetual Convertible Preferred stock into 3,145,640 shares of common stock and repurchased all of the newly issued common stock for $157.9 million or $50.19 per share. This move will help save approximately $0.9 million of quarterly preferred dividend charges going forward.
In Jul 2013, Ocwen sold $2.4 servicing advances and the rights to receive the servicing fees on loans with UPB of nearly $83.3 billion to Home Loan Servicing Solutions for $622 million.
Our Take
We expect the company’s new business acquisitions and loan modifications to boost profitability in the forthcoming quarters. Additionally, the company’s efficient capital deployment activities will continue to boost investors’ confidence in the stock.
On the flip side, persistently rising operating expenses, sluggish economic recovery, and market volatility with subprime MSR market contraction remain the major concerns.
Can anyone elaborate on FNMA book value?
Solid post. You might want to listen to CER3 posts again people.
People of this board why the gloom and worry. Pick yourself up we are heading into a great week. Also remember last run took place after ER not before. So don't panic if this does not run until we have our ER. We are in good shape people.
Just take a look at FNMAT & FNMAS shares on a move. Last time we had our run they ran just like this.