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You will see a bear raid when there is some uncertainty as to the FDA outcome. Doubtful we will see one with a 90% chance of being approved.
While Dr Kim stated they have enough cash until Q1 2016, that doesn't take into account running a Phase 3 trial which will cost well over $100M. They need to either raise cash or partner. It is a strategic move to dilute now because you always want to negotiate from a position of strength. With sufficient funds, INO is in the driver's seat and if they don't get a favorable deal, they go it alone.
You have never offered any fundamental reasons on why people should be skeptical of INO. All you have done, is copy and paste other people's opinions from The Street, SA, or Yahoo Message Board posts. You are not capable of formulating an orignal thought. It is clear that you have an agenda. You have warned us on numerous occasions that INO is a pump and dump. It's a good thing Roche never read your posts. The landscape has clearly changed as evidenced by the recent strength. We have closed at or above $2.44 for the last 28 trading sessions. Please come back after we set a new 52 week high and warn us again.
A big difference between INO and most other small biotechs, is their experience. Their board and management team has many years in big pharma and they are more than capable of setting up a Phase 3 trial and bringing a product to market. Adel Mahmoud was the former President of Merck Vaccines and responsible for the development and commercialization of many vaccines including Gardasil. Whatever Dr Kim decides to do, I will be confident in his decision. Let's not forget, he is the largest shareholder and has the most to gain or lose !!!
Is it possible that SPDR purchased the 7 million share block on Friday and then another 160K shares on Monday, thus showing the 160K change when it was updated on the 24th ? I check the institutional holdings on a regular basis and this is definitely a new holding. Whatever the case may be, I agree that we are much stronger than we were during the Aug/Sept run ups to $3.00. Very possible that today may have been the last day we see the 2's. Very excited for 2014 !!!
SPDR S&P Biotech didn't have a position when the 13F's first came out in mid November. I don't believe any fund/institution had a position of more than a couple million shares. The big block that went through Friday right after the close was most likely SPDR S&P Biotech buying the 7 million warrants that Marxe and Greenhouse had remaining.
I do plan on sticking with INO as I have done very well this year and expect to do just as well next year. So why don't you tell us where you are putting your money and let's see who has done better 6 months from now.
You remind me of miamigent, only a little more pathetic. You really nailed your call of $1.30. Any other brilliant predictions for us ?
Does your magic 8 ball still say $1.20-$1.30 ? My magic 8 ball says not a chance.
Many people said the same thing about INO back in Jan-May when we were stuck in the $.50 - $.70 range. It is a trading stock. Sell anytime it hits $.70 and buy back in the low $.50's. That strategy didn't work out too well. While your strategy may be to trade INO (and there are no guarantees that your trading will be profitable), mine is to hold. In 2-3 years, people will regret not buying at these prices.
Everyone has to do what's best for them and what they are comfortable with, but I get the sense that your current belief is from frustration and understandibly so. I am extremely frustrated that we are close to $2 instead of being at $3+, but sometimes there is no rhyme or reason as to how a stock trades.
It could take 6 months to get back to $3 or we can be there next week. Expect to see HIV and Influenza Phase I results in the next few weeks and I strongly believe we will see another partnership this year. There were over 650M shares traded in the 3rd Q with 250M of them in the $2-$3 raange. That is not just day traders and retail investors. I think we will see a big increase in institutional holdings when the #'s come out in mid November. The ones who were in sub $1 and wanted to take profit most likely did so already on one of the two run ups to $3. There are a lot of new investors who are in at $2+. Much stronger base than a few months ago.
I first bought INO last December. Went through many months stuck in the $.50-$.70 range and heard the same BS then as now. Nothing in Phase 3, dead money, sell on any pop, years before it goes anywhere. Well, it's up 300% since then on pre clinical results. You say it's dead money, I say we hit $3.50 by EOY.
That's why 90% of day traders lose money. They all want to get rich overnight. When that doesn't happen, they sell for a loss and move on to their next "score".
What is a universal vaccine worth ? Could Novartis be our 2nd partnership ?
LONDON (Reuters) - Big drugmakers are seeking a boost from new four-in-one influenza vaccines that will be available for the first time this flu season.
Offering more protection to patients, the new quadrivalent vaccines provide a route to premium pricing that could improve margins and profits in a highly competitive market.
Sanofi, GlaxoSmithKline and AstraZeneca all have products ready to tap the new opportunity, while Novartis is lagging behind its rivals.
Until now, seasonal flu vaccines have only protected against three strains of flu - two strains of influenza A, which usually causes more cases and more severe illness, and one of influenza B, which is less common but also circulates in multiple forms.
The new vaccines include protection against a second strain of influenza B, which experts expect will prevent the vast majority of type B infections.
But extra protection comes at a price. French drugmaker Sanofi, whose Sanofi Pasteur unit is the world's biggest supplier of flu vaccines, with sales of 884 million euros ($1.2 billion) in 2012, says it expects a premium of some 50 percent or more.
It reflects a determination by manufacturers to move up the value chain by developing more innovative and expensive vaccines, following the recent success of novel products such as HPV shots to protect girls against cervical cancer.
Contracts struck with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) confirm a hefty price jump for the new four-strain flu vaccine, with GSK's quadrivalent Fluarix, for example, costing $12.03 per dose against $8.08 for the standard version, according to the agency's website. (http://link.reuters.com/huf33v)
Those price premiums may feed through to higher revenues and accelerated growth in a global flu vaccine market that research group Datamonitor Healthcare estimates at around $3.7 billion a year.
"Over time, more and more shipped vaccine is likely to be switched to quadrivalent, so over a five-year period it could lift revenue growth from the low single digit to the mid-to-high single digit (percentage) range," said Alistair Campbell, an industry analyst at Berenberg Bank.
Some U.S. doctors see a more rapid take-up, with Paul Offit, chief of infectious diseases at the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, predicting that only four-strain vaccines will be available within two years.
PRICE SLIDE
It should help a business with a patchy profit record.
Although drugmakers benefit when there is a flu pandemic like the 2009/10 outbreak of H1N1 swine flu - returns from non-pandemic seasonal vaccines have been falling, particularly in Europe.
"Prices have become unsustainably low in Europe," Jean-Paul Kress, head of Sanofi Pasteur MSD (SPMSD) said in an interview. "The quadrivalent vaccine will help us regain perceived value for flu vaccines, which have become commoditized."
Kress, whose organization is a joint venture between Sanofi and Merck & Co for marketing vaccines in Europe, said average prices for flu vaccines sold in bulk had fallen to around 3.50 euros per dose from about 6 euros in the past few years in austerity-hit Europe.
Most of the quadrivalent business in 2013/14 will come from the United States, where the CDC expects four-strain vaccines to account for around 23 percent of the 135-139 million doses that manufacturers are likely to make for the country.
Thanks to the U.S. opportunity and innovations such as an intradermal shot injected into skin rather than muscle, Sanofi is on track for a "record" flu vaccine season, its Chief Executive Chris Viehbacher told an investor conference last week.
In Europe, roll out of the new vaccines will be slower as several products - including Sanofi's four-strain Vaxigrip - are still awaiting approval, although GSK's quadrivalent has a green light in Britain, Germany and France.
A competing vaccine that is sprayed into the nose rather than injected, from AstraZeneca's MedImmune unit, is also cleared in the United States but not yet in Europe.
AstraZeneca is taking a different approach to rivals with its FluMist product, which already commands a higher price than injections, by opting to switch entirely to quadrivalent this season. But it has decided to raise the price by around 5 percent, rather than 50 percent, taking the CDC cost to $17.30 per dose.
A $50 Million deal isn't going to budge AZN or MRK. They are just too big !!!
I agree that today's action was disappointing, but think it's a great deal for INO and needed to be done.
Maybe they could have gotten a better deal, but how long would it have taken ? Investors were starting to get impatient. Waiting another 3-6 months would make many lose faith in Dr Kim. Instead, we look at him now as a man of his word and someone that can be trusted. So when he says more deals are coming, we believe !!!!
With any small cap biotech, there is always the risk of dilution. With the $10 million upfront, we are set until mid 2015. In addition, the first milestone payment will be made this year upon the start of 5150 Phase I.
Validation .... The world's largest biotech company is now our partner. In addition, Dr Kim said there were other offers but Roche's was the best. The biotech community has taken interest and wants a piece of INO. The first deal is always the toughest. The next ones will be easier.
36 million shares traded today !!! That's a lot of new investors who paid between $2.40-$3.00. Anyone who has been holding and was looking to take their profit, did so yesterday or today. I don't think there is much downside from $2.55 and we should be back at $3 soon.
ImaPseudonym .... I am surprised no one replied to your post. This could very well been the reason for yesterday's sell off at the open. Also, Amit's bashing article on SA was released yesterday to SA pro members. So there was a good likelyhood of the warrants being exercised and some heavy shorting. Damn good thing we got the PR this morning.
Anybody else notice that about 13 million shares worth of warrants from the pipe back in march became exercisable on the 3rd?
From the 8k dated March 7th:
Just shows how much you know. INO presents on Tuesday at 11:15 and then again on Thursday at 10:55. Sorry, no sell off on Monday !!!
You won't hear from Miami until we have a down day. Then he will take out his calculator and compute the percentage drop.
If you like INO long term, don't worry about pennies. In a couple years from now, it's not going to matter if you paid $1.60, $1.70, or $1.80. Sure it may drop down to $1.60, but a Monday morning PR and we can be back over $3.00. If anyone is looking to add, it should be done ASAP.
MG .... you have yet to give us one intelligent thought as to why INO is a pump and dump. All you are capable of is copying and pasting artciles and calculating percentages.
You say having a market cap of $700M for a company not being close to having an FDA product is absurb. The statement shows us how clueless you really are. Would you like a list of biotechs who have a market cap of $1 billlion or more without any product past Phase II. Or how about the companies that were bought out in the billions without any drugs close to FDA approval.
I strongly encourage all investors to disregard anything you have to say. You claim you are here to warn us. You are nothing but a wolf in sheep's clothing. At least have the balls to come out and say you are short.
I despise people like yourself !!!
Traders are like gamblers. You only hear about the wins, never the losses. What about all the people who trade in and out trying to increase their shares, but ultimately end up with less shares. They are out there, but it's extremely unlikely that you will hear anyone admit it.
Are you a short, paid basher, or just have too much time on your hands ?
"Not in Memory of Stoney"
Could the beloved "stocksavant" be responsible for Adam F's hatchet job ? Looks to me like Adam wrote the article to stick it to the savant.
stocksavant?@thestocksavant6 Aug
$INO @adamfeuerstein You were bashing at $.75, $1, $2, now $3...when will you do some actual DD and make some $...TheStreet cant pay much..
stocksavant?@thestocksavant6 Aug
$INO @adamfeuerstein I'm up over $150k in a few months man.that's like 4 years of work for you?? Lets keep it real here..see you again at $5
stocksavant?@thestocksavant16h
@ThEconomists @adamfeuerstein the truth is man, he has NO CLUE!! That is obvious. How someone can have so many followers is scary.
The best scenario would be to have a partnership announced before the conferences take place. Show the institutional investors that big pharma wants us. I think everyone has heard enough "we are in late stage discussion" with big pharma. What we need is a partnership and talk of additional partnerships. That will bring in the big funds.
Dr Kim has already stated they have enough cash to last through the end of 2014. A dilutuion would kill any momentum we have.
Wow, talk about cocky and arrogant. First off, nothing is guaranteed in the stock market and if you really think that, then you are a fool. You've been investing for a year and you already have it all figured out. There are people a lot smarter than you who have been investing a lot longer than you and they still haven't figured it all out. I also have friends and family invested in the stock and together have much more than 200K shares. As much as I love the stock and think it will be a huge winner, I told them there is no sure thing. I'm glad you and your family are set for life on a $1.50 stock. I'll be set for life when I sell the stock at $20 and the cash is in my account, not when it's tading at $1.50.
It's a whole different world now. For some people, it's not so easy to recoup losses. Like they say in gambling, "bet with your head, not over it". Invest wisely.
Actually, I think it is terrible advice. If stocksavant wants to invest every penny he has in INO, that is his decision. To advise a college kid to do the same, is wrong. You should always have a few months of living expenses in the bank. As much as we all think INO is going to be a WINNER, there are NO guarantees, especially with biotechs.
Go ahead and short it then. Come back in a few months and we'll see how you did.
If you like the stock long term, why worry about a couple of cents. In a year from now, it's not going to matter if you paid $1.15, $1.20, or $1.25. You run the risk of missing out on a big run to the upside over pennies.
It wasn't me that said you made $20. I was making fun of the predictions you made over the last few days. You were basically all over the place. PR, Partnership, no PR, going high, tanking. Do you really expect that people aren't going to make fun of you or bash you when you post messages like that ?
I am glad you made money, but you do realize there are people out there that made a lot more than you did !!!!
Hey James .... If you make enough predictions, one of them may eventually come true. Here is my prediction. We see new highs by the end of the month. I can't say how I know, but the info is out there for all to see. I will give you a clue, it starts with a "P" .... lol
The drop before was due to the secondary offering and it was about a 30% drop. A drop from $1.57 to $.75 would not be good. I am sure whatever partnership deal Dr Kim puts together will be good, but no one knows how it will reflect on the stock price. We could go up 50% or 200%, but I would much rather be at $1.25+ as opposed to $.75 when that happens.
A drop down to $.75 would not be good at all. It would show that there is no support and would most definitely hurt any future run up. People now question whether we can stay above $1.00. We drop below that and traders will be more convinced that regardless of news, we can't hold any gains.
So say we are at $.75 and partnership news comes out, we go to $1.50. Basically we are back where we started. If we are holding around $1.25, we may see $2.50 on news.
I really appreciate your enthusiasm and posts, but a word of caution. The only guarantees in life are "Death and Taxes". INO is the only stock I own and I have a large position, but I don't have everything I own invested in it. I am very optimistic, but also realistic. One day we can be at $5.00 and the next day we can be at $.50.
I don't disgaree that INO is actively pursuing a partnership and I think we will see one by the end of the summer. If you listened to any of the previous conferences, Dr Kim has stated they have enough cash to last until the end of 2014. As far as the increase in shares from 300M to 600M, it has been previously discussed in detail (both here and on Yahoo) that is was done to prevent a hostile takeover.
You couldn't be more wrong. INO has enough cash to last through the end of 2014 and the reason for increasing the shares from 300M to 600M was to prevent a hostile takeover (Poison Pill).
We should actually thank Marxe, because if it wasn't for him, the stock never would have been under $1.00.
Seriously ..... It was 3000 shares traded in after hours at $.60 and 10,000 traded at $.62. I wouldn't call that panic selling. These are meaningless trades.
I am glad you are staying long !!! I want some new toys as well :) It certainly is frustrating, but we can only be held down so long. When people hear Dr Kim mention the word "Partnership", they get excited and then disappointed a couple months later when we are still at the same level. They don't realize these things take time and can take 6+ months. Have seen it many times. One morning we will wake up to $1.00+.