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The forulzc
I am long the stock myself since high 6's so stock movement is terrible. I am showing more negativity than anything positive. I have concerns that a lot of institutions sold out last qtr with new 13fs filings released yesterday. Not only altimeter but Morgan is out too.
They would have to dilute more in current market conditions IMHO and would go against prior mgmt points about capital raises. Why do that when we are still in a yield hungry environment. It's a win win situation for the institution as they have lower convert pricing in the event the stock starts to move and continue their income stream. If reduce it, spa, anchor or nce issue catalysts turn positive....$2.86 would be easy. Better than refinancing at higher short rates in the future. I would say the convert news dropped the stock 10% today....had they done an offering! they would need to sell for at least 25% discount with all the litigation and FDA related drama.
Back through 50 day of .70
Interesting. They may be small here in the us but theyre big in japan. They understand mochidas epadel sales so this could be a great in for them. They had joint generic ventures with teva too. No risk for both sides in my opinion. Any comparison benefit of livalo vs crestor? Maybe a better combo.
Amrn co promotion deal with kowa pharma.
He was adamant about the banks during the financial crisis and put buys on Bank of America in the five dollar range. Everyone laughed. Bank of America $17 a share today
Basically they have by next year to find a strong partner so wont affect cash burn this year. This more of a first to file thing from them.
Going to be expensive. Surprisingly the stock is up 1.1% afterhours on 43k volume. Normally no after hrs volume on a friday. Basically we have a year due to nme right?
Well so much for vascepa not being interesting to generic companies....2 generic filings were received by amarin. First co rejected prior to nme was par pharma. Now we have another 2.
Ok got it. Level 1 happened on time so was assuming the rest would follow a similar pattern.
Excellent.....it's like Frank Underwood is running the show
Someone should contact both of those congressmen who are looking into zohydro case and share possible amrn mistreatment as well just to investigate.
Really? Thought there was a 30-60day period involved for each level? They said it would take a year to essentially get to the top. June july puts the full appeal to 2nd-3rd qtr next yr.
Well the FDAa and zogenix are in the news today regarding possible corruption involved in the wild approval of zohydro. I remember we were all shocked that it got approved last year and we didn't get anchor.
That's for full level process though right? So we are assuming 2nd level appeal is out, then possibly level 3-4 is where they expect a final firm decision? Assuming 30-60 days we should hear from level 2 soon correct?
Agree on sales force cut. Was a bit premature in my opinion. Maybe ex elan CEO should be new CEO of amarin. Only one that could see potential in my opinion.
Realistically.....can snda be approved without a spa in general? Or do we need spa in order to have a reasonable chance of snda approval? Thank you for any clarification. Good script growth in past week....Glta. Decision should be coming soon for spa based on 30-60 day level review. Hope next level listens.
Agreed, nothing to lose with the amount negative decisions handed to them since approval of Marine.
I think Mochida should just buy Amarin, continue reduce it as they already have Jelis And know outcome. Theyve been selling epadel for years and have japans market cornered. It would be ideal in my opinion as ive said last year.
They actually received the generic company intent earlier this month before FDA gave them NP status. This is from their 10k -2nd sentence:
Based on communications with the FDA, we believe the FDA does not accept submitted ANDAs for review until after the FDA makes a determination on the exclusivity status of the pioneer drug. In February 2014, prior to the FDA’s three-year exclusivity determination for Vascepa, we received a purported paragraph IV notice from a generic drug company with respect to an ANDA to Vascepa. The FDA confirmed with us after we received the notice and before the exclusivity determination was made that the FDA had not accepted for review any ANDA to Vascepa. The FDA has repeatedly taken the position that paragraph IV notices delivered to pioneer companies such as Amarin prior to the acceptance by the FDA for review of a submitted ANDA are not effective under the Hatch-Waxman Amendments. The generic company may challenge the FDA’s position on whether the notice is valid in court in connection with patent litigation. Generic companies are thought to send such premature notices to seek to avail themselves of the 180-day generic exclusivity period for an approved product under an ANDA based on the generic’s view that it would then have first-to-file status and to seek an early end to related patent litigation with the branded drug company and the associated 30-month stay. Because we and the FDA do not believe the purported paragraph IV notice is an effective notice under the Hatch-Waxman Amendments we do not plan to initiate patent litigation against the generic company that submitted the ANDA until within the 45-day period after we receive a valid paragraph IV notice.
I agree. Since mgmt did not discuss lawsuit during conference call i wanted read 10k. Read it there. It was shortly before that event did a generic company filed and fda rejected first because they hadst made a determination. After this,lovaza cp and amrn np were done. Not sure on timeframe but guess it was close to fda making a decision.
Nope thought i read it in the fda suing section of 10k today where it discussed nce. Didnt name firm but fda told they rejected it.
So much for AF comment on twitter about no generic would be interested in vascepa due to poor sales, if i am reading it right, a generic company did file an anda but fda rejected because nce decision not done yet. Guess they wanted to be first to file. At least there is interest
I believe the lawsuit is more a matter of principle. The constant changing of the rules makes this argument. Management has to protect the rights of shareholders in the company. I would not expect anything less.
One thing is for sure, the word award was put in for algorithm trading. Could explain the massive spike earlier. Algos are all over this thing as well. Could explain the movement. Anyone if senior converts are for sale and what their cusips are?
They cant catch a break, this has been one set back after another...frustrating
I agree but doesnt hurt to know whos still swimming in this pond. These are fairly large positions in their portfolios so they have to have conviction to take it on. Big boys have large portfolios so a top weighting in amrn may mean very little in their own portfolios.
Top holders of amrn now are healthcare focused hedge funds and small ones at that. Major institutions are either out or reduced stakes by over 50% except for blackrock which bumped up its stake by 20%.
Redmile group increased by 513% and are now 3rd largest holder, visium asset managment increased by 10000 % to become 5th largest shareholder. Data as of today
Sweet Deerfield is in, first well known hedge fund....should attract others
Listened to Leerink Swann conference....not much new except for possible fda appeal news in 2nd qtr which puts in April timeframe not this or next month (30-60 day levels) Cash burn less than $80mil for 2014. He did emphasize legal route 2-3 times basically if there is not resolution to spa or anchor. Essentially there are spa and snda law that were not followed by fda thus proving amrn with legal route. Difference here is that he was very clear and to the point vs. the last conference call. No mention on reduce it.
Analyst did make the mistake of saying amrn got crl already for anchor.
Due to increase of lovaza sales, gsk has been pushing more and not backing off lovaza sales. Tells me gsk is not interested yet and if they are would most likely let amarin burn out on its own. If amarin took more market share from lovaza it may be a different story but for now, not a remote threat in gsk eyes.
Excellent JL...all we need is to put it together
Agree with all assumptions....just wish they partnered to sell more V today to carry them through to all those points you mentioned. Flat sales and Drs not knowing about the drug is an issue. Every script counts and they basically need to start selling.
Isnt that the use of vacepa for cve? Modified label?
Ok sounds good, never trust yahoo then on vol. appreciate the correction.
Saw on yahoo volume today 3k plus and open interest 3k? Maybe yahoo not updating?
Update on 13f - zazove associates takes a new 8.75m position in amrn as of dec filing.
Well someone bot 3k amrn sept 3 calls today, not to shabby considering it was probably an $85k trade
Point 4 - they are merely stating the adcom question. Doesnt mean they went or are saying for cv reduction label. This was clarified during adcom in question confusion
I like the word "potential" they put under anchor indication and upcoming milestones - increased scripts from current indication. We need a massive ramp up in sales then Wall Street will notice. Nice to see Citigroup doubling down, UBS and franklins biotech fund holding full positions since December.