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Medicare not covering Vasepa-- oops!
So we don't have Aetna Tier 2 coverage?
What KC has addressed is important- we don't really know the number of patients that comprised the Anchor population. I'm concerned that only minority of that population will be prescribed Vascepa. What that # is, who knows? Of course, if the outcome trial came up positive, it's an entirely different story,
My biggest concern is that we won't get a lot of adoption for the Anchor indication before the outcome data. And maybe not a lot of Tier2 coverage for this indication as well. In other words, the 10x market may be more like 2x.
Pfizer approves $10 billion share buyback program! Not interested in AMRN-guess it GIA!
Amarin (NASDAQ:AMRN): Wainwright has initiated coverage of Wainwright with a Neutral rating and a $6 price target, as it sees a low probability of Amarin announcing a commercial partnership or acquisition.
Biobillionaire has NEVER been right! Just ignore him--all his "detective work" has amounted to NO insight into the process.This stock is in the dumps with no prospect of even getting in the 20s. We're all just stuck here losing money every day.
JZ is incompetent and needs to be replaced ASAP
Somebody posted this MSG on SA. Care to comment?
"I can see it now....
Final Question: "Do the benefits of approving Vascepa, prior to having any CV outcomes data, outweigh the risks?"
When answering that, keep in mind that in the Anchor Trial, HDL Cholesterol DECREASED
I'm sure the standard rebuttal from the peanut gallery will be the decrease in LDL.
But keep in mind that patients in this population already have LDL levels below 100 mg/dL, which is classified as "ideal".
However, average HDL levels are below 40 mg/dL, which is classified as "poor."
Since Vascepa DECREASES HDL, it is just making a bad thing worse.
Also, a common theme that is brought up at Advisory Committees is the quality of data/trial design. There is no doubt that the abnormal % end point increases in the placebo arm will be scrutinized and called into question. Once the ridiculous placebo effect is removed and one looked solely at % change from baseline, the benefits are quite underwhelming"
Akanz keeps bringing this up- anyone care to comment?
"If Vascepa is as successful as you and others hope ( I'm long by the way ) ...expect a ton of competition by 2016 by a combo drug from AZN and high quality DS 90% EPA from BASF ....BASF now owns Pronova's production facilities as I' m sure you know"
JZ exercised options. Form 4 out
Hey-
Cn someone post the Lerrink note that was out today, please?
Folks-
Élan dissent have the $3-4 billion needed to acquire AMRN, do forget about that happening!
Saw this post on SR's Blog--any comment?
Steve,
Please include in your article comparisons of bioavailability results please. Also not many aware but big brother will start looking over the shoulder on any studies done in treating lipid modifying agents. Corporations better be on their toes because it looks as if BB data doesn't match what Corporate gets, some heads could role.
http://1.usa.gov/175MDDS
I've heard from some very reliable sources that Epanova is believed by several major institutions that it will become First Class Drug of choice for hypertrigs. One of the firms is currently our advocate. My research apparently does not match their research. Only advantages I currently see is dosage schedule, size of capsule and bioavailability superior to Lovaza (all only addressing Marine indication). Unless these instos are privy to bio results not yet published, I struggle with their logic.
Also, if this is factual, why was their IPO a dismal failure and was only supported above 7 by institutions buoying up the price in agreement with their contract??
Citi's target price is $13 by May 2014 right?
Assuming the 20-30s number that gets thrown around very loosely would be with a buyout--right?
Just sold out. This is going nowhere. The price keeps falling. I would be ENTHUSIASTIC if this crap got acquired for $14, but I doubt it.
Good Luck-hope it pays off for you--I am down close to 50%.
Does it concern people that Lovaza sales are up!!! I think homebuilder said by ~6000!
Scripts data doesn't look good- hope it gets better.
Hi-Would appreciate some responses from 2 posts that akanz2 has recently posted on the YMB.
Thanks!
Post # 1
Do you have any information on what BASF is doing in Europe with Pronova. They had stated they intended to move into high quality dietary supplements .
Not bashing folks ....I hope all you longs become fabulously wealthy ....but as you know Amarin has the patents for greater then 90% pure EPA devoid of DHA .....but 90% and lower pure EPA has been in the marketplace for yrs.
If Reduce it shows clinical benefit then IMHO the threat is not from generics but cheaper DS alternatives .
Amarins coupon program expires end of 2013 I believe.
Just my thoughts ....don't mind if I am wrong
AK Less
Post 2
Good pts --- but BASF now controls one of the largest producers of highly purified fish oils ( Pronova )---- certainly the largest for an FDA approved extract from fish oil , product ( since they supply Lovaza to GSK )
The statin /EPA combo pill is likely years away if ever IMHO -- a few of the problems are 1) you take statins at night for max effect but EPA is half am / half pm ...so how do you dose it ( different colored pills ? )
2) The strongest statin is Crestor but some find they are more prone to cramping and need less potent statins , so who do you combo with ... and so on ..so Not sure how feasible it is .
Guess what I'm thinking is that if Amarin were to announce an alliance with BASF ( beyond what they have with Equatech ) to develop product for the Anchor indication I would be more enthusiastic ... until then I'm skeptical.
There are many moving parts here , but an important one is who controls most of the supply of purified EPA because if Reduce it shows clinical benefit --- purified EPA that will likely be in high demand.
AK Less
I wonder how long I'll have to wait to get back to my cost basis of ~$14. I was hoping by the end of the year, but that seem unlikely at this point. I just want my investment back!!!
Never mind--we don't know as of yet-- if it will be added as Tier 2!
Tier 2 would be great news
Almost in Kaiser!
Can someone comment on this post by hartdoc I saw on YMB with regard to AMR 102:
"you all are so clueless about development and prescribing patterns. They are developing only the rosuvastatin combination and only as a concept. You have to have the dose of the statin split over 4 capsules. Guess what: no compliance. Therefore, you lose the efficacy of the statin to drive the LDL to goal. So.... #1 FDA won't approve it, #2, as a physician I want to use the statin of choice for my patients #3 the payers will expect IF it could be developed( there is a big if there) that the statin would be free. Therefore no market for this"
Thanks!