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There is much truth to what you say.
However the time to raise cash is before you need it.
Just one negative from any ongoing program would drive the cost of capital much higher. It seems that they are trying to keep a min of 2 years banked which I think is great and well thought out. Just the type of behavior a professional uses.
I was not a fan of the rs, and I am no fan of dilutions. Given the industry, I am at a loss to see how a "professional" could do much better. J Kim is about as good as you will get anywhere. Dr. Weiner, someone who would know told me years ago J. Kim was the best biotech Ceo he had ever met. Many others in the industry agree.
He is far from perfect, but he is exceptional in every way. I have spent many hours telling him he is wrong about some of his decisions, and he has listened to the criticism from myself and others. Sometimes I am even right. My point in bringing this up is that he is not out of touch, he listens to opposing points of view and even cultivates them. He just has a longer timeframe then most people. On top of that his first priority is keeping Ino in business and that is achieved by cash first.
He has a Wharton mba which is one of the definitions of professional. He kept ino/vgx in business through multiple failures early on. Well over 90% of small biotechs fold with a single failure. I think you do not realize the full depth of J Kim and how lucky we all are he is running this operation.
Does the current ebola coverage and inflows from it vindicate J kim on the 4 to 1 rs? Any thoughts?
I totally agree with you, but stranger things have happened...
Every time I logged in to Ihub using a browser, it told me to leave. So I could not write effectively until I got a USB keyboard around. I am sorry for the delay. I am also typing this while waiting for a ride to brunch so forgive the lack of details. If someone already made these points, I missed it.
First I loved the results. The fact is we hit our primary and secondary end points. I see them as somewhere between a double and a triple. I had hoped for a home run.
Looking at the data if you have pre cervical cancer you have about a 50% chance our shot will cure it, and then about a 50% chance our product will remove HPV from your body so it cannot create future cancer. I think to see the potential you have to look at these two together. A person may elect to skip the 50% chance of getting the pre-cancerous cells cleared for the almost 100% surgery offers. However, I feel a person would not skip the chance to remove both the cancer cells and the HPV virus.
Add this up with INO-3112 following on with IL-12 in the mix and I think you have two potent products. I of course see INO-3112 becoming the main product shortly after introduction.
The current stock action is as much a mystery to me as you. I think this has become the norm for Inovio events. I wish I had sold my shares on the day of release. I did sell my options on the second day of the fall and keep some profit.
I think the attention now has to shift to the next partnership. Inovio will be in a much better bargaining position then in the past. It is now a fact that DNA vaccines work and that revalues the -whole pipeline, even if wall street has not done this yet.
I would look to see the next partnership if it were done on VGX-3100 to be in the 500 to 800 million range with a much larger upfront payment then Roche made. If they are wise, they will also want the rights to INO-3112 which should push the deal up over the 1 billion range. I am just pulling these numbers out of the air, but I am basing them on the Roche deal, then extrapolating what the value of the more advanced drugs worth. I am also adding a premium for the completed Phase 2 trial. Perhaps some others will have some thoughts on the value?
The worst short term outlook I can see for us the stock holders is Inovio continuing on with no partner on VGX-3100 or INO-3112. A more likely solution would be to sell off or partner off VGX-3100 and keep Ino-3112 for the company. In the long run even having no partner for either drug would start to earn money for shareholders in about 3 years, vs a nice pop in share price now. Another potential negative is we will be looking at more dilution if the company goes on its own. Long term this may be a real win though.
The final thought is we are now left in the rare place of having a product we know will work. And given the secondary results of clearing HPV and that the alternative treatment is mild surgery that does not clear HPV from the body, if the current numbers hold true for Phase 3 we have a product that should be approved.
Those are just my thoughts, I hope it provides some guidance for you all.
I cannot remember either. But now its a fact dna vaccines work. The week before last it was not.
Mostly the scientists were very impressed. I personally talked to two nay sayers, who kept saying they needed to see the complete data.
As far as I can tell, their specific concerns were addressed in the data. I will go into more detail when I have a real keyboard to use.
Guys we should all take a moment of silence and mourn for the shorts. Those poor people have a tough day of margin calls ahead.
Lots of back slapping going on here....
Dinner was pretty good, the awards were fine, other then the Plotkin award there were no major awards handed out.
The panel was interesting with j kim offering to throw down his dna tcells against any of the rna upstarts. That was the most entertaining part...
No major news to tell you about.
I have been very impressed with the CureVac presentation.... Seems like a 2010 inovio, but w RNA vaccines... I cant say i know enough about RNA vs DNA but I know they are slightly different routes to immineotherapy and I am interested....
Seems to be private though...
I dont there is a reliable source on that. Today makes sense, inovio speaker is on around 4 30 pacific. The conference ends tomorrow, with another ino speaker on that afternoon pacific. Joseph moderates a panel tonight around 7 30 pacific.
I have heard few here discussing any time for data release, not any ino people...
The ino folks here seem very jovial though, so they are hiding it well if its bad news.
No there was no meat to share. I got tied up in meetings and missed the panel Niranjan moderated.
Lots of great info from other companies, but 70% of it is too technical for me.
The usamrid people did a few great presentations and a guy from Ichor as part of it with usmrid. But I found no great investment nuggets in there.
Sorry guys. I am still betting we get data while we are here. We will see.
Lol. Errrr. It was mostly dna vaccine society stuff. Nothing there you would really want to hear....
I wish you could go too.
Good luck to us all. My thought has been aug for the release, but if the data is good, I would do it at this conference....
Great. I will be at the Westin gaslight hotel. I will be in Sunday afternoon through Wed afternoon. I will have meetings and some work to attend to, but I expect to have ample time to meet.
Anyone attending the dna vaccines conference next week? I am.
It was not your fault that you missed me. I was not in the room waiting with the other shareholders. I walked in with Joseph and was the pasty white guy standing at the front rt of the room. Second or 3 rd from the door. I was standing behind David Weiner. I am sorry we did not meet. Had I known anyone from here was at the meeting we could have had lunch.
I agree with your assessment, but would add this is also a way to control downside if the news is negative for the company. I am sure that mgmt has well considered both possibilities.
I also felt that organic growth was the best way forward, but I totally understand mgmt's position and respect it, and ultimately supported it.
I personally feel we are on track for good data, though no one knows for sure yet.
You are welcome. The last part of my reply was directed to people in general not you.
I think there is plenty of debate to be had over every move mgmt makes. I just find it disappointing so few do anything more then complain on message boards.
I can tell you that I and the people i spoke with were surprised at the lack of shareholder complaints at the meeting. I think that is disappointing. It makes it easier for mgmt to do things in the future. I can assure you I voiced my opinion loud and clear to mgmt, and then supported the split. I feel it was a necessary evil.
I believe that real constructive criticism only helps mgmt and the company grow stronger.
Unlike many here, I want everyone to make money, both long and short. I feel you can make a good short trade on Inovio sometimes. But I have never shorted it myself. I am an investor in Ino not a trader.
well I stated last year a 3 dollar price tag for eoy 2013 and I came pretty close.
I cant think through enough right now to give you one, Maybe in a week or so.
I have said many times in the past about the risk of Ino. At this point if you believe in good science, stay, if not you should leave. it is just that simple.
I might add that I have heard a lot of complaints here, but no one from here wanted to meet me at the meeting, which was the place to voice concerns. I was at the meeting and there was very little complaining. It was said, but only one person went on about the split in any way.
I agree that the rs is not going to be fun. I thought friday was a good day to release the news. I fully expect the split to be in effect in the next 1-2 weeks.
I really do not think it is feasible to try to manage the news cycle given I expect they want it live asap.
I feel for you and it hurts me in very big ways as well. I was pushing for the 4 to 1 since it was going to happen.
The data is due in the next 3 months and I know they believe that will make up for the losses here.
Sorry you are not going it would be great to meet you.
Who is going to the sh meeting? I will be in Philly Thurs and Friday.
We should have a lunch or dinner gathering. I do not know which day is booked yet.
I think David sums it up well. Add to that a reverse split and you get the formula for where we are. It was not possible for management to know that a slanderous article would be published.
Given the lack of recent articles, it would appear that people are afraid to write more. I have no doubt that there are people playing games on SA. I also have no doubt that Ino is not. I have seen too many opportunities for management to do such things and seen them pass to even consider that they would behave in such a manor.
I am very nervous about the RS and how it will be perceived. I am also hoping it is currently baked in to the share price.
Vgx i is based in seoul korea. They make trial drugs for many companies, it is one of the few sources of revenue for both them and inovio.
They woodlands tx plant is fully booked up production wise and working very hard. It is the most advanced dna production plant in the world and has some patented proprietary technology.
A few years ago the cystic fibrosis society contracted them to make a complicated dna experimental drug. They were the only company capable of making the plasmid.
For the science people out there, they are capable of producing plasmids roughly 7x more concentrated they industry normal.
I am happy to talk. Ino is one of my fav subjects.
Well Bob, I am not really sure on that. It would be tough for them to accommodate everyone.
I started investing when vgx was private, and helped them finance the take over of Advisys ( the woodlands location) and helped them finance the start of Vgxi, so I am a special case. I just ask and tell when I need.
I use to be important to this company. Truly they have not needed me since about 2007. However, they continue to treat me as important and extend me every courtesy. That is just the type of people they are.
I also own 10 % of vgx animal health, ino owns the other 90, and it runs out of the woodlands office.
I just got back to atlanta after driving straight from houston, which i left at 4 pm there time. Had I seen your post earlier I would have tried to have you along. These things can be tough as you can see confidential processes. Frankly I am not educated enough to be able to take advantage of such things, and I have signed many confidentiality agreements in the past that are still in force.
They invited me to the San Diego event and I was privileged to see David Weiner for the first time in many years and have lunch with he and Joseph. They are truly very nice people and it is sad they everyone cannot meet them. Both are humble and courteous, you would hardly know they are two of the smartest people in the world. I was the most arrogant person at the table.
I hope that brings some clarity. I am now rambling after being up for 26 hours and driving for 14 hours what should have been a 12 hour trip.
I will be there on Friday.
Just thinking of all of you. I attended the dedication of the new building in San Diego today. It is a VERY impressive set up. I know many were concerned with the large amount being spent there. Let me assure you it seems to be well spent.
Inovio is concentrating its research there and it is a very complete set up.
The lease deal is very well negotiated and a good value for what is being paid. We can all debate the need of having San Diego at all, but what we have there is a good value. Much of the staff there I have never met. I had the opportunity to spend a few minutes talking to a few of them. It is a truly impressive team.
You all have a good weekend. I drove out from Atlanta in my new Lincoln Mkt, a truly sweet ride. We will be seeing some sites, in la and Arizona for the next few days and will be swinging by the Houston offices on the way home next week. It never hurts to eye ball what our money pays for.
I am thinking wrong, wont you have to give up your stock at 2.50 not receive?
I always think getting paid for holding is great. I would not have gone so close to in the money.
Its already been posted. May 22 9am.
Blue bell. I am going to the meeting are you?
You make many excellent points.
My thoughts are that management is not as concerned with the P2 data as people seem to think. Indeed I think the RS is in no way related to bad data. I think they now that they want a RS they now see the advantage of keeping the sp up if there is bad data.
I believe the timing was bad, given the dilution having happened recently. So we should ask WHY did the company do it NOW?
What makes the timing good?
The only answer I can come up with is we will see the RS prior to P2 data, not after. The data has no baring on the RS.
Perhaps they have heard form some institutions that would like to start a position prior to the data.
In the end I think that management does not feel a $3 price reflects the quality of the company, and the float is too high. If the data is good $10 will not reflect the quality of the company either. So you split prior to the data, and if its good, great. If the data is bad, it insulates the price from going to $1, and keeps it on the CNBC screen attracting new eyes.
That being said, I expect the RS in May or early June. If that is the companies intent, then the timing of the announcement makes perfect sense. They need it out there and voted on asap. Such a decision takes time for people to digest.
Also, if they waited for bad data to trigger the RS, that would be doing it from a position of weakness, further reducing the stock price as people have noted. That is not a strategy I would expect form our CEO or our very good board.
Inovio has been below a dollar for many years. Due to the nature of their listing they have no delisting pressure if they go below it again. So your point is just not valid in any way.
Inovio reverse split.
First let me say to everyone that I have argued with many times here about reverse splits and Inovio you were right and I was wrong, and I apologize for being wrong.
I personally do not like when any management decides to simply set share price in any way that is outside the market. I personally would not have taken this step and would have argued against it if I were in a position to.
That being said, I have known J. Kim for a good while. We have had a few disagreements. Normally he turns out to be right. In the end, I would and do gladly trust him with my money, and this great company he founded.
At this point, I think the RS is a done deal. We should all accept that it is and get use to the idea. Management and the board walk in to a meeting with over 22% of the vote. Worst case they get half of the people. In a company of this size, if you do not have confidence in the CEO founder, you should not be holding.
The topic that is open is what size this split will and should be.
I am advocating for the 4 to 1. If we are going down this road, we may as well go big. There are some institutions that need the price over $10. So lets get them all. We are going to have to weather the criticism no matter what.
It can be rightfully said that the current share price does not reflect the value of this company. People often see a $3 price and immediately think the company is worthless. We know this is not true. When you see the Inovio behind the anchor on CNBC with a $12 price, it will appear to be a better value. This is all PR but it works.
Opening the way for all institutions to buy in is the fastest way to rebound from the negativity, and return our focus to the upcoming news and future partnerships.
Akalaniz I am not sure where you got the idea the CEO was going to sell stock. I have never heard such a thing. I believe if such a thing were put out anywhere, it was a mistake.
To this day J. Kim has never sold any Ino stock. I do not see that changing any time soon. He recently stated he had 98% of his net worth in Inovio. I am sure the only reason he is not buying now is he has all of his investable assets in Inovio already.
The only real information we learned from your post is why we should never trust you. Either you are trying to mislead us on purpose, or you are not smart enough to understand the subject.
The fact that a product did not do well in human trials has nothing to do with the immune response it triggers. Just based on what you are writing it was discontinued for other reasons.
Also, Inovio will not be the leading immune response forever. That could be beaten tomorrow. However, the immune response they are getting was the best in class and will be until some company surpasses it. Surpassing it in animal studies is a good thing, but since Inovio is testing many of its products in humans, you will need to compare on that level as well.
The most important thing is it is the best immune response that is currently in human trials. Even if Inovio's product has slipped to #2, which I am not conceding, it changes nothing about the potential of Inovio's products or of their current human trial data.
Finally I truly hope that company has surpassed Inovio on immune response. It is never a bad thing for all of us to have better drugs. Inovio will just have to enjoy its roughly 7 year head start and develop something even better.
Thanks Joan!
With that criteria it could be much sooner then I expected.
Lets just hope it says in the mid to high 3s, or higher of course!
Tom
Does anyone know the exact criteria for a stock getting an option chain? I believe it is being over 3 for 3 months, but I am not sure...
If that happens I will be dumping my shares at that point and and buying an option position that is larger. Imagine the upside fun with that?
Tom@smbventures.com is my email.