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John Thero's influence of incompetence appears to extend to the general market.
How did JT's comments make the path more difficult? All they potentially did was hurt the PPS in the short term.
In the short term the current pps action is gut wrenching but if you have the faith then yeah, these are buying opportunities.
Thanks for taking the time to explain this to me.
Mercator21, Will do. I actually googled CVR after lowlevelowl88's followup post to TTE.
"If Thero took $40 per share, plus a participation right equal to a reasonable percentage of future revenues over some threshold, you could have a deal fair to all parties."
Please excuse my ignorance but how would this scenario effect stockholders? How would we benefit from these future revenues?
I seriously doubt Amarin has to worry about individuals expressing their grievances to the FDA on their behalf. They probably receive thousands of such e-mails from stockholders across multiple drug companies.
I've read plausible scenarios for GIA (indefinitely), GIA (till just after label expansion) and a BO before sNDA. We'll know in one to three plus months if there will be a BO before sNDA.
I'm not clear about the patent window argument since BP probably would also be handicapped by the current label indications.
Do any of you experienced investors know the likely timeline if there are any offers before sNDA. How much time do they need to prepare an offer? Will there be any smoke before the fire? i.e., rumors of buyouts. Something to keep the PPS from drifting lower and lower. TIA!
I find this very frustrating as it's as if doctors deduce that Reduce It results also apply to Lovaza/generic Lovaza. Amarin has their work cut out for them differentiating Vascepa (pure EPA) from other Omega 3 products.
After today I could use some Santa dust
Big Thumbs Up!
Perhaps we can have another contest for the sNDA submission date
Sounds like a tell that sNDA submission will happen at the earlier part of 1Q - January - rather than the end of 1Q - March.
JT said he would ask for fast track approval but he also said he doesn't expect to get it. So yes it's possible we could get approval in 6 months for early Fall approval.
You make a reasonable argument as to why a BO may occur before sNDA filing but I'm not sure why you're not too keen on waiting till after expanded label approval if that's the case.
BP (along with many long time investors) has been waiting for 6 years so what's another 12 months?
So your position is that Amarin needs to sell out in the near future to get top dollar and waiting for label expansion means it would be too late for that?
I would rather get the pay out sooner than later but not at the cost of a lower BO price. I guess I can look forward to you departing us - again.
I plan on holding till next Fall when expanded label FDA approval is likely and when a BO may occur afterwards. Since a BO is always a possibility I don’t think it would be prudent of me to sell now and buy back in later.
As John McEnroe would say in his playing days: "You Cannot Be Serious"
I thought they had $80M on hand so that would be $280 total and Amarin should start becoming revenue positive. And there's still the possibility of another offering down the road.
As someone mentioned earlier some opined there would be no need for an offering because of an Euro partner or a buyout but they quickly find another rationale as to why the recent offering is you guess it an indication of an Euro partner or buyout.
Not saying there won't be a partnership or buyout sooner than later but Amarin needs to be in position as if they were GIA in the short term (1 year).
Well the risk would be not being around long enough to enjoy the winnings! And even without the risk folks still choose to get the lump sum.
I like the lottery ticket analogy. And we know what route most lottery winners choose.
How do you know half is going towards the patent loan?
BO versus GIA
With a BO you know when to cash out and you don't have to worry if you cashed out too soon. And the what could have been with GIA will never be known with certainty.
With GIA you're not sure when it's the optimum time to cash out.
Are the opponents to GIA saying the PPS will never reach let alone exceed the PPS of a buyout? Even if you're right about peak sales never materializing because of patents expiring and whatnot won't the PPS still be higher than it would be with a BO at some point?
raf, are you referring to post 162794?
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v-
Quote:Do you still "think" with 100% certainty there will be at least one BO offer?
Yes (with 99+% certainty)
Quote:Do you still think the last offer will be in 3 digits
Could be (especially in case of bidding war)
Quote:Why do you think any BO offers will happen before label expansion next September?
Why wait?
- More likely label expansion will be granted
- (Maybe) the buyer would like to control / manage the approval process
- BO (take over the daily business) will take time …
Quote:I didn't think we would be aware of any offers unless Amarin acted upon one of them - accepted.
Quote:how in the heck do you know what offer will be the last one
Amarin could not accept any offer w/o shareholders' meeting / vote:
a.) we will know about it before it is final (done deal) … could be accepted by the shareholders only
b.) if anybody would like to raise the bet, won't wait till shareholders' meeting
Best,
G
"It's been on the market for a few years, that should be enough for you to be more realistic in your "forecasts." R-IT will improve sales but that will be offset by the law of large numbers."
Yes, Vascepa has been on the market for a few years but it has only been a couple of months since R-IT results (a couple of weeks with details) have been known and saying it will improve sales has to be the biggest understatement on this board.
And yes doctors may not catch onto Vascepa right away but most will catch on long before exclusivity ends even if it's still being sold by Amarin. How you're phrasing "offset by the law of large numbers" comes across as a word salad.
Inroads to awareness, further insurance coverage, lining up more suppliers and FDA approval for expanded label all converging at about the same time (late Summer/Fall) will be a lovely scenario for Amarin longs and all it takes is our patience. There are arguments as to when and if a buyout will occur but it seems to me Amarin will get a bigger payoff waiting till at least next Fall if they do decide to sell.
Do you still "think" with 100% certainty there will be at least one BO offer?
Do you still think the last offer will be in 3 digits and how in the heck do you know what offer will be the last one?
Why do you think any BO offers will happen before label expansion next September?
And I didn't think we would be aware of any offers unless Amarin acted upon one of them - accepted.
"I admit I had my doubts about the September 24th outcome. I got out like a scared puppy. But given the spectacular results even with all the detractors I have no doubt that the shares that I bought post 924 are going to pay handsome rewards over the next 4-5 years. Whether the stock symbol at that point is AMRN, AZN, or other."
I got in with a cost basis of $13.26 (3774 shares) so while some made out like bandits post 11/24 I felt great relief and I'm no longer at the ledge ready to jump off.
I hope you're right with your certitude.
Regarding raf, my bad for thinking he might have deleted my post.
I don't know if Amarin is inclined to sell out or not but I don't see them going through the last 5 years to just sell out on the cheap which would be the case if they were to try now IMO.
My expectation is that Amarin will submit for sNDA the first quarter of 2019 because because that is when they said they would do it.
Sort of the same response that JT gave in the CNBC interview - that the market will eventually understand the data. Not sure what is meant by "not immediately apparent" but hopefully it carries weight.
As far as an additional trial to address the mineral oil issue - this is out of our control, it happens or it doesn't. If it does then JL should be put on Amarin's payroll. So I'm not sure why some are getting so worked up about it.
I would be interested to read your overview of what lies ahead for Amarin in the next few months. If you did so since 11/10 my analogies and I'll find it. Thanks!
Heck, who didn't know the details before hand outside of individual investors?
Thanks! After reading your thoughts it seems kind of obvious.
"I'm not sure what to root for. A trial stoppage for futility would remove AZN's motivation to slow Vascepa approval, but it would also add fire to the nitwits who want to say Omega-3's don't work."
I'm rooting for a stoppage as it would clarify the difference between Vascepa (pure EPA) and other Omega-3's that don't seem to work.
Mineral Oil was approved and reaffirmed (after ADCOM) as a placebo by the FDA. The Reduce-It trial designers had to get their approval before the trial started. Hard to see mineral oil as any kind stumbling block with the FDA to get wider approval.
The FDA approved and later reaffirmed the placebo. Their reasoning behind the rescission of the ANCHOR clinical trial SPA ironically is going to benefit Amarin with the so called MO issue.
At the very least we got a reprieve today. Hopefully we bottomed out.
I needed that. Thanks!
It seems the rebuttal articles regarding the mineral oil fiasco are falling on deaf ears. This is so frustrating.
I know it's irrational to fret over the daily PPS but nonetheless I prefer to have it go up.
It looks like I'm having crow for lunch.
It appears the AHA presentation was already baked into the pps.