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To put this in perspective, imagine how the republicans would behave if Obama did just 1% of Trump's antics.
I did read the transcript, It came across as measured and not the hype and hysteria you portrayed. He's not saying the sky is falling like kiwi inferred by getting everyone to watch it.
The final briefs did not fundamentally change the case. The consensus before Friday was a likely win for Amarin and that is how it stands now.
There's nothing magical about Monday and although technically the chances of a ruling is no longer zero it's effectively zero for this week. I do expect the anticipation of the Judge's ruling to creep into the PPS starting late this week.
1) The burden of proof is on the generics for the question of obviousness and the threshold is clear and convincing.
2) The judge would have to determine the patent office is run by a bunch of nincompoops who were incompetent in granting the patents.
So I disagree, the case comes down and always has come down to interpreting the label - does it cause inducement?
As for the chances - I refer you to the episode "Man from the South" from Alfred Hitchcock Presents. Thankfully it's just our money and not our fingers that are at stake.
The point I was making is the current PPS hasn't fully reflected the street's view of a patent win/loss because it has never been a factor since the chances of a patent ruling to date is 0%.
Have you ever predicted anything on this board? And it was TTE who was calculating the street's odds? Why in the hell aren't you going after him for being stupid? I'm simply pointing out that the "when" should be considered in the calculation.
"then the market is saying that AMRN's chances are only 2 in 3... maybe even a little less... 60%?"
What happens when you add time as a parameter to your calculation?
IMO the market will reflect a much higher chance when we're in the date window of when the Judge will rule. I'm not sure when the window realistically opens though (last two weeks of March?)
Of course I'm assuming the world hasn't come to an end by then.
Perhaps you're selling this board short, not all of us are fixated on the current PPS.
I sure hope the Judge agrees with your interpretation. I no longer think this is such a cut and dried case.
I'm waiting for the legal minds to opine on the filings
Well, I'm feeling petty good about EXAS as a long term investment. Looking forward to the 2H where hopefully Amarin no longer exists and Exact Sciences starts picking up momentum.
"Look for the 2nd quarter to be period when we are likely to find out just what direction JT and his BOD have decided to go."
Heck, we may be able to narrow it down to April. While I think any potential acquirer will wait till after Judge Du's ruling before making an offer they have had amble time to prepare such an offer.
WRONG! It's taken for granted (or should be) that negotiations are currently underway for any potential buyout but it's asinine to think a deal would be announced before the Du decision.
I have a hunch you won't be too concerned about an offer under $40/share come April. We might be back to predictions that are overly optimistic.
The district court will only litigate the case if it finds the Judge didn't follow the law properly (tough task). Appealing a case is not the same as litigating the case again, that only happens if the higher court doesn't affirm the decision from the lower court. I'm not sure you're understanding this distinction.
IMO the uncertainty level from the appeal process will be well below the threshold of deterring BP from acquiring Amarin.
dmiller wasn't alone and even a simpleton investor like me figured out this stock was/is dead money once Judge Du gave her timeline for her ruling.
As we approach the window of the judge's decision I suspect the PPS will start to climb in anticipation of a positive ruling.
I assume there will be an appeal. My point is there is not going to be any grounds for her decision to be overturned so IMO it's over.
The timing of the case wasn't directed at you.
Of course it's over when Judge Du makes her decision.
This is a non precedent case based upon expert testimony. You really think an appeals court would overturn her ruling because of that?
And the Judge specifically stated she would make her ruling before the end of March but yet the timing of the ruling is still be debated on this board.
After patent decision the PPS could be in the mid 20's. Then I suspect BO predictions will be over the top as opposed to underwhelming predictions we're getting now.
Where we differ is in the length of next bounce.
IMO this bounce will last at least a couple of months on anticipation of a BO. If you believe the patent case is not a deterrent to a BO then yes the bounce will be very temporarily. I believe the window will be fully open for any potential inquirers after the court ruling and hence I don't see the usual sell on the news.
"Say AMRN goes from $18.50 to $24 on the court win - how many other stocks have the potential to go up +30% in only two months? (180% annualized)"
I would say that's a very realistic scenario. If there is a BO in April for let's say $55.50 that would be a 300% gain in 3 months.
I anticipate a steady climb of the PPS starting in late February/early March in anticipation of the court ruling so you have time to play with your money else where if you wish and perhaps an even better entry point.
Guessing if no BO by June then the PPS goes back to a "dormant" state relying on sales kicking in down the road.
At least May!, try March
Since the burden is on Amarin for infringement and they have to prevail on all points it doesn't seem like it's a "lock" to me either. The good news is I'm unaware of any testimony that would have persuaded the Judge from her initial inclination that Amarin had an intuitively persuasive argument for infringement.
IMO most on this board are predicting a win by Amarin, it just differences in confidence levels.
A new virus has the potential to be devastating and it's not a matter of if but when it will happen. I guess that's why any new outbreak is taken so seriously.
Just curious, do you think this is because there is little interest by BP or that Amarin doesn't want to be acquired. Or both?
"Leland argues that the window of M&A for Amarin is rapidly shrinking after gaining FDA approval just a month ago? Hilarious"
That caught my attention too. The window hasn't been opened yet and it won't open until the judge rules on the patent case or it's settled.
Not sure why this guy is treated like thee authority among analysts by those who write investment based articles.
I appreciate your post. Thanks!
IMO first and foremost Amarin wants to establish their slogan - "True to your Heart" - which I assume will be a theme throughout their commercial campaign.
The good news is it just needs to be the preponderance of the evidence (over 50%) for Amarin (infringement) and clear and convincing for the generics (obviousness).
Time will tell if this is the beginning of a series of commercials.
My take is entirely different than yours. Going to the expense of showing a commercial (which doesn't make much sense in isolation - meaning more to come) in prime time on a major network infers to me that Amarin is serious about GIA.
My point is this commercial is a set up for further commercials. It's the campaign that should be judged and not this one commercial. All the marketing firm wants to register with the audience with this first commercial is the "True to your Heart" slogan. And it will take multiple views for it to stick.
Yeah, I'm sure the marketing firm Amarin hired didn't test the commercial (and subsequent commercials that will follow) with test audiences. They must be a bunch a country bumpkins.
Now I guess we have a bunch a marketing experts on this board.
This campaign is going to be a series of commercials getting more specific to Vascepa leading perhaps to an end one for the Super Bowl.
Thanks for the heads up Raf!
Thank you to you and your daughter. That was very considerate of her to take the time to review the case. May we both sleep better for at least a few days. :)
But it has only been a few weeks since the Reduce-It label was approved. Although it was very likely the FDA would approve the label especially after the 16-0 AdCom vote there was still questions on the extent of it.
IMO this was a bigger detergent to BP than the potential forthcoming appeal process. Hence, why a BO hasn't happen yet. I think of it this way, the chances of the generics winning is slim to none and with appeal slim is leaving town.
Let's just wait till April when the patent case is behind us before speculating on why there isn't a BO. Perhaps you'll end being right but its seem a bit premature to have this viewpoint as of now.
Yes, if the threshold of a BO is zero uncertainty then there will not be one. The generics winning on appeal couldn't be further from "big uncertainty".
"There well be no BUYOUT until Reddy's is 100,% behind AMRN including appeals."
Including appeal, are you sure about that? What is your basis for this opinion?
I'm a bit unclear on the burden of proof scenarios.
Someone earlier stated the burden of proof (preponderance of evidence >50) is on Amarin for proving infringement.
So 1) for inducement the burden of proof is on Amarin but for only the preponderance of evidence and 2) for obviousness the burden of proof is on the generics and it needs to be clear and convincing???
Can someone please clarify this? TIA
Then that would mean Amarin would not ask (motion) for a verbal summary correct?
To be clear I was just referring to the inducement part of the case. I assume the judge could still give a full and measured ruling when she rules on the case.
And there's the possibility the generics would seek out a settlement with such a judgement summary and hence an appeal would not apply.
If this does leave less wiggle room at appeal then it's probably worth waiting.
The irony here is the apprehension of Amarin GIA seems a lot more palatable now (at least for me) given the relief many of us will feel with the patent case going in our favor.