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I hope odds are better than 50/50 but the adcom definitely adds some unpredictablity.
Now LPCN just needs to make it through lingering patent issues and an adcom!
Coin toss at this point . . .
Well, apparently the FDA is not too high on ATRS testosterone drug. Announcement after market today - "deficiencies" found.
Where did you pull 1 in 5000 from. Wait, don't tell me.
You are so blatantly wrong - you would make Trump blush!
Below are the 10 year success rates (published 2014)
Phase 1 to 2: 64%
Phase 2 to 3: 31%
Phase 3 to NDA: 58%
NDA to PDUFA approval: 85%
Phase 1 to approval: Just shy of 10%
1 in 5000 is .02%. You are off by a factor of 500.
Most companies have multiple drugs in their pipeline so
the chance of getting 1 of their drugs to market increases
with each additional drug.
Nice try.
Thanks. Still hard to believe they made that mistake. Next week they have a chance to put the bad news behind them and get the stock moving in the right direction in a significant way.
The mistake was definitely not trivial. I had correspondence with the CFO shortly after the CRL and it basically came down to LPCN not knowing for sure that the dosing algorithm that they adopted from Eli Lilly would be acceptable to the FDA. Since LPCN did not know the threshold of dosing discordance that would be acceptable - they made assumptions about how Eli Lilly's algorithm apparently passed muster. An issue that more open communication with the FDA should have nipped in the bud. This speaks to black box relationship between drug companies and the FDA. Hoping they have all the answers queued up and beyond reproach when they finally meet with the FDA.
I'm with you Harry. Sold half my shares a while back and sold calls against the rest. Looking to buy back under 10.
My guess would be at least 3 months but before year end.
Agreed - LT INO will be more than fine and I will buy
on further dips. Thanks for your thoughts.
Calm yourself mrpat. I too have been in INO for some time. My first shares were bought 4 years ago - so the DD has been done. Still long and bought some more today. Just surveying the board to see who might think the sp reaches the pricing of the recently completed offering.
Who thinks we see $2.90 or so in the near future?
So Piper buys shares last week for $2.90 then upgrades INO with a lofty price target a week later. Nice gig. Wonder what their next move is?
I sold a bunch of shares last Thurs. and immediately put in an GTC order for $3. Not sure how many shares were traded at $3 on monday but I got nearly 50K of them. Most of those shares were sold $.20 ago. Hope to get a pull back to buy more and will try to sit on those shares. Feel naked without them.
Anyone else catch Dr. Kim's slip of the tongue in the conference yesterday when he said Merck partnership instead of Roche. Hopefully, he's been saying Merck partnership so much in private meetings recently that it was easy to slip.
Gary indicated to me that it would take several months to get assays back as they are looking for all minerals - not just gold. I am sure they are really gun shy about giving specifics as they have no control over 3rd party's! So maybe July?
Many of us who have contacted Gary directly were informed that mistakes were made in the early version of this report therefore it had to be re-done. My theory is that those mistakes may have been present in previous reports overstating the resource and that drilling up to Dec 2012 had to be included in the current version in order to bring it up to levels just above the June report.
Again, just my theory. At least this line of thinking would indicate that EXS is still finding gold. If not, TPW is basically worthless.
tamtam - you don't really need to know every shareholder to understand their positions in this stock. Just need to do a little math.
Take the number of shares traded since pdac that are below current US price of .085 and divide that by the number of outstanding shares.
Let us know what you get - I'm guessing that number is VERY low.
Subtract that number (in %) from 100 and you get something close to 99%.
Good one - In XS. Got a chuckle out of that.
In XS - you completely missed my point.
I was suggesting that IF there were good drilling results - CD wouldn't have to settle for the option deal that he gave.
Therefore, there must not be any good news coming soon. Got it?
Do you think if CD had any real good feedback from drilling at KC (or was going to release positive news in a few days) that he would give a 1 year option to this European IR firm for a half million shares at $.15? CD may be stubborn but I don't think he is stupid.
Wow. just the news we were looking for! And more dilution to come - maybe.
Interesting - gharma. My main concern is the 43101 that was supposed to be published last December. On a number of occasions - CD had confidently declared that the 43101's would be updated every six months. Not aware of any previous delays with the 3rd party providing the report. So why now? And over 3 months late? Something is not right. The attempts to explain the delays have been for the ears of the naive.
Release the freaking report. Like I said previously - often times the cover up becomes worse than the crime!
Here's my take: CD and his consultant didn't like what they saw in the 43101 (either an error or simply not enough Au)and they are having the 3rd party "adjust" it. Regardless it shouldn't take another 3 months to get that done. Come on - what is the normal lead time for this type of report? Anybody?
CD should just release the stupid thing - it is causing investor anxiety big time. The cover up is usually worse than the crime.
Personally I'd be surprised if they released it prior to any KC drill results.
That or Gary is clueless.
Hopefully that latter.
If we don't see the 43101 before arguably the most important conference of the year for EXS (PDAC starting this weekend) - then it is official that CD is hiding something.
Given the responses I've received from Gary, basically saying don't focus on the 43101 - look at Kidd Creek. My take is that the 43101 is the key measurable output for EXS or any junior miner and they better take it seriously!
I'm a bit confused on the proposed near surface drilling plan for TPW. Don't they have enough data for all the drill holes previously dug to get an idea of what resource is potentially available near the surface. Each hole starts from the surface . . .