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Listened to Jason Huangs NVIDIA ‘s GFC’s key note speed. Unfortunately after one hour and 15 minutes I lost my connection. Nevertheless incredible stuff. I recommend you listen to his speech your self. Beyond my pay grade. Talking in 30-50 quadrillion data speeds and interconnecting all existing GPU’s in one organic computing eco system.
All about NVIDIA ‘s aim to accelerate the computing eco system speed and power by building giant GPU’s for generative intelligence. Read: from using generative computing power from (any) idea to design through fabrication to final deliverable ( read: any software, product, application or service ) in any vertical or market in the world.
Strategic partners are Synopsis, TSMC, Cadence, Omniverse ( design software, computional lithography, super computer design chips).They announced their new Blackwell giant GPU ( successor to Hopper) using RAS ( automatic inside reliability testing of billions of transistors) and encryption technolog. I can’t understand the massive computing power of Blackwell. Talks about all computing power available needing 1000 years to be able to perform computing tasks as NVIDIA will deliver. Talks about a few billion dollars to pay for Blackwell. AWS, Microsoft, Google and many more are already lined up for orders. New eco system, new business system,, New computing era is upon us.
All about self generative computing, not general computing. Datacenters will need to be restructured and massive retrieval capacity build. Please have a look yourself at this incredible journey into the future. Just wonder where this puts other big and small companies in the chip industry will undergo massive disruption. IMO LWLG becomes a necessity in this eco system.
The proprietary nature and the time and cost implications for the foundries in order to get to this stage in the fabrication process without any deals with these foundries ( multiple !!!) or down stream device or system customers would be illogical.
PDK’s are fully operational, foundries deliver poled modulator devices. In other words the foundries are ready to move from trial to full scale production. Testing is next to finished for first batches and will be part of an ongoing and continuous process.
Final process steps: current foundry NDA’s need to be transferred to technical assistance and license agreements and final customers need to sign supply agreements. Lebby told us that we are in that final stage of commercialisation. Any day now! JMHO.
Came across this statement on another message board, it might well apply here as well.
“‘ The chief executive of software company Palantir blasted short sellers on Wall Street, saying that “nothing makes a human happier than taking the lines of cocaine away” from people who “just love pulling down great American companies’.”
Pretty clear and thought invoking presentation by Mark Smith to the SAFE conference. Thanks Mark
Listen to the competition and CEO James Litinsky of MP Materials. Preferably complete ( short) interview at SAFE but especially around 13 min. where he predicts big casualties in corporate America because of REE and other metal shortsupply.
Just put these people on ignore. Just follow the contributors and serious investors. Makes life so much more pleasant and relaxing.
It’s big volume and must be somebody scared or very eager. Don’t think scared. Maybe scared to miss out. Let it be the beginning of the ascent. Perfect moment to cover. Lots of activity with triple witching and expected company announcements next week. Are we witnessing the last rehearsal skirmishes before the curtains opens for an epic drama on stage?
Many myopic, even blind people. Maybe somebody can tell us what specific material can get us to 200G per lane? Must be brought back from the latest Mars samples!
Shareholders in Lightwave are fortunate to have invested in a high tech and innovative industry where product renewal and innovation are a realty of life. Of course disruptive innovation may affect an capital intensive industry, but there is no alternative unless you aim at extinction. Moreover trillion dollar final customers like NVIDIA , Google , Meta and AWS will dictate their requirements to suppliers upstream. The pressure to deliver breakthrough and reliable performance and low power on system and transceiver companies is huge. Obsolescence is a truly huge consideration for these suppliers but missing out on final customer requirements can break their backs. The LWLG solution and continued use of the current industrial chip infrastructure is a huge advantage for foundries, whilst the incumbent transceiver industry may have to accelerate depreciation for their incumbent transceivers to satisfy their largest customers and to benefit from an explosion in demand for 800 G and 1.6 Tb 4 and 8 lane in the years to come. The signs from the market are more and more in favor of Lightwave.
Broadcom:
We expect shipments of 8x100G optical transceivers to exceed 5 million units in 2024 and first 8x200G modules delivered to customers by the end of the year,” commented Dr. Vladimir Kozlov, founder and CEO of LightCounting Market Research. “Google and Nvidia will be the first adopters of 200G per lane optics for interconnecting GPUs and TPUs in AI Clusters – the hottest area of the market now. Broadcom is once again among the first suppliers of components enabling the next generation of optical transceivers.”
Good life lesson:
“ People with very high expectations have very low resilience, and resilience matters in success. I don't know how to teach it to you except I hope suffering happens to you...I use the phrase 'pain and suffering' inside our company with great glee...
...for all of you Stanford students I wish upon you ample doses of pain and suffering." -
Jensen Huang NVIDIA March 2024.
Thank you. It’s the big issue. Mining projects take easily up to 12 years to realize, supply and demand for critical minerals often show short term ( low prices) deviations, creating challenges for the financing of mining projects. The long term demand for critical minerals is definitely growing rapidly according to Menell. Again, the government needs to step in to overcome this challenge and to make sure it supports the long term strategic necessity. The private market needs a helping hand here, I have underestimated this investment challenge. Always thought keep the government out of the business. In hindsight probably short sighted.
Seems to me MEMX is a further step in monopolising the stock exchanges. With their memberships in the DTCC ( the Depository Trust which holds original share certificates of public companies ) the biggest US companies are controlling the complete chain. Some of the largest members of the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) include major financial institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America. These institutions are among the many banks, broker-dealers, and asset managers that are members of the DTCC and MEMX. With their millisecond algorithms they will squeeze the retail investors even more than today and will be capable of outwitting the SEC.
Is this fact or does your remark miss a question mark?
Thanks a lot. A must see and listen interview with Techmet’s CEO Brian Mendell. Great interview, fantastic and detailed insights in the current critical minerals mining market and its dynamics. Niocorp’s shareholder are in the perfect spot. Interview improved my mood as a Niocorp investor. We are about to witness an epic demand explosion in critical minerals and a transition and dislocation of supply.
There is finally bipartisan understanding in Washington that China is ‘eating America’s lunch and dinner’. Crux here is that Americans will lose out big time because it’s short term shareholder focus is at odds with the long term, capital intensive requirements of mining and processing. There is an understanding in Washington that without support of the full force of all agencies of the American government the ‘ private market’ cannot solve this issue and Washington will need to come forward massively and fast to secure its industrial and security position in the world. This need for action now will sure help our Niocorp project.
X, we all are waiting and focussing on deals, because we would like to see the share price rise. But looking beyond this a bit , I hope that shareholders understand with deals, Lightwave’s profitability will be disproportionately high and on top of that Lightwave will be very asset light. Return (on very low ) investment will be fantastic, you could probably better compare Lightwave from that angle with a software business. It means that shareholders may expect handsome dividends overtime.
Low volume, four decimal trades to keep some volume movement and prices in check. Only 8 more working days to OFC 2024.
I am sure Lebby, this time, will use the biggest industry event ( 18-24 March) of the year to create excitement and attention on Lightwave’s opportunity to support further industry growth in photonics.
4 January 2024 Michael Lebby: “Given the incredible potential electro-optic polymers (…) The impact of electro-optic polymers will become clear fairly soon.” Pretty bold statement. We are at 11 March 2024 now and we must be getting very close.
I admire your willingness to engage with LCP, who I put on ignore long ago. Thank you by the way for your valuable contributions.
Just to highlight the problem ....
https://wapo.st/435Sbhr
The transition to renewable energy sources has gone so fast in the Netherlands that there is an oversupply of electricity which cannot be stored and needs to exported. In fact incumbent electricity sources and new wind and sun energy are now clogging up the electricity grid and huge infrastructural investments are necessary to expand the grid. New companies don’t get access to the grid, because it’s full. Must be the case in the USA with its outdated electricity grid as well. New data center applications in the Netherlands are facing difficulties since they use a disproportionate part of the grid and electricity supply, despite the abundance of electricity.
Big money and Wallstreet understand the disruptive nature of Lightwave’s EOP and is positioning itself for exceptional monetary growth. That’s the clear overall trend for some time now. The shorts are part and parcel and a means to an end in this effort. A lot of the messaging is ‘framing ‘ to capture the biggest slice of the cake. Wake up everybody we are all going to win big time. That’s the only outcome or conclusion I can draw.
Although I was told IMEC had a group of people on new materials ( polymers) and Michael Lebby is known by IMEC, he used to regularly visit IMEC, I don’t think there is a necessity for Lightwave to engage directly with them.
IMEC, which stands for Interuniversity Microelectronics Centre, is a research center focused on advancing microelectronics and nanotechnology. Its main purpose is to conduct research and development in these fields to drive innovation and create new technologies that can be used in various applications, such as healthcare, smart devices, and renewable energy. IMEC also collaborates with industry partners to transfer its research into practical solutions and products.
LWLG is a research and development company for polymers as well and has all proprietary patents. Not sure what IMEC could add here. Maybe they can help to address certain verticals on behalf of Lightwave or support some of its current industrial partners with polymers?
I have transferred part of my LWLG shares to my grown- up children on condition they won’t sell any in the next three years or to use shorting. This company is going to deliver big time.
Fiscall, thank you for explaining the existential business implications of the Diamondoid patent. Took a long time to get passed the bureaucracy. After three long years of trying. Fantastic news.
Theroc, you would almost forget that we are entering one of the most exciting times of the Internet and everything which is in someway connected to it. There is massive investment about to be build to expand the Internet infrastructure and this in turn will create a plethora of new , for the most unknown yet , innovative businesses, much as happened when the Internet infrastructure was built between 2000 and 2010 which opened the opportunity for new billion dollar businesses like Facebook, Netflix, Amazon, thousands of applications like Whatapp, Twitter, Instagram etc etc.
Artificial Intelligence will be the new catalyst and for sure applied to all aspects in our daily lives. New opportunities for business and individuals. NVIDIA is paving the way and the big Seven with their flush cash are 100% jumping on the AI bandwagon.
The current Ethernet infrastructure needs a significant upgrade in terms of bandwidth, speed, and power consumption to make sure it will support business growth and continuity, more specific to deal with increasing data demands: - the proliferation of high-bandwidth applications such as video streaming, cloud computing, and big data analytics and now artificial intelligence. - Internet of Things (IoT): The increasing number of connected devices and sensors in IoT applications requires a more robust and scalable network infrastructure to handle the massive amounts of data generated. - 5G and beyond: The rollout of 5G networks and the development of future wireless technologies will require higher capacity and lower latency from the underlying wired infrastructure to support the increased wireless traffic. - Data center requirements: Data centers are experiencing untold data growth and storage requirements. - Energy efficiency: As the demand for data transmission increases, there is a need to reduce power consumption in network infrastructure to minimize environmental impact and operational costs.
Overall, the upgrade in Ethernet infrastructure is necessary to meet the growing demands for data. Think Cisco 2000-2008….the need for transceivers ( now moving to switching light ), one of the key enablers for this infrastructure led wave of innovation 20 years ago…. We are in a second wave, bigger than the previous one since current bottle neck and the arrival of completely new AI created data demand will necessitate this. LWLG is in the infrastructural sweet spot with the introduction of a new generation of modulators, P2ICs and unrivalled bandwidth , simple and small architecture, speed, exceptional low power consumption
The new diamondoid patent ( granted yesterday) guarantees long term (proprietary) long term stability . Scaling is no issue since the existing semi conductor manufacturing infrastructure can be used. Lebby’s remark ” Who can do without us?” Says it all. It’s happening%!
Wow, a deal. Who would have thought that? That the only thing shareholders or non shareholders don’t control. If you can’t control, it cause you stress. Looking at your reaction it would appear you have already entered that mental state. Don’t do that to yourself. Don’t let your impatience or stupidity become your handicap.
With newly issued shares absorbed, institutions continue to accumulate from happy non - shareholders something has to give in.
Tell me what that will drive the share price up?
1 institutions stop buying
2 current shareholders finally sell shares
3 non shareholders start buying
X, yesterday I saw that a 15 year old using social media was convicted in court for spreading false information on investment forums.
Made me think how many kids we would have here? It could explain some of the childish messages on this board!
No, I haven’t. I think accumulation already started with all newly issued shares in the 4 Q completely absorbed by institutions and I suspect the same happened with any newly issued shares year to date. The official short position didn’t really change and remained at 22 Million. I believe this institutional driven accumulation trend will accelerate between 1 March and 30 March.
Don’t know I only follow the civil people on this board. Don’t want to talk to the uncivilised and non shareholders.
For the more intellectually astute on this board and while we wait for the shorts to capitulate, listen to this excellent podcast. NVIDIA is used as a catalyst to describe how their market presence will trigger capital investments by the big 7, how this will impact the cloud infrastructure and how this new potential will cause again huge and innovative growth in applications, infrastructure companies and new businesses. It gives the big 7 the opportunity to get rid off some of the excess cash and to build a new platform for new and innovative businesses using capex depreciation. It’s relevant to what LWLG is doing. I got this from our friend SteveS. Thanks Steve.
The Allin podcast is a really great listen. Make sure to listen the first part on Nvidia and others, related to 1999 dotcom and now, their earning vs the TAM they represent. Other hyperscallers building like crazy because the money sits on the balance sheet, and have nowhere to spent that money on. Buying GPUs is a great way to activate some of that money.
Keeping prices low is giving encouragement and confirmation to the shorts that they are winning. I hope they realize they are being manipulated as much as anybody else into a warm and fuzzy winning state of mind.
Institutions owning shares ( or even having naked shorts in their books) will orchestrate an artificial short squeeze to clean up their books, net out losses and profits , and transfer the risk and the losses to retail shorts. Giving the task at hand ( 22 million shorted shares) institutions need a few weeks of trading to accomplish this. There are two critical success factors : make sure retail shorts don’t cover and maximize their short position ( this puts more pressure on the process of covering) 2. Control the process and avoid interference from the outside ( e.g. explosive news from the company). With Lebby in the process of finalising deals and OFC in March, the window of opportunity for the institutions is now. They can position themselves for huge financial gains and need to act. Watch volume increases, call option activity and the order book for March.
Keeping prices low is giving encouragement and confirmation to the shorts that they are winning. I hope they realize they are being manipulated as much as anybody else into a warm and fuzzy winning state of mind.
Institutions owning shares ( or even having naked shorts in their books) will orchestrate an artificial short squeeze to clean up their books, net out losses and profits , and transfer the risk and the losses to retail shorts. Giving the task at hand ( 22 million shorted shares) institutions need a few weeks of trading to accomplish this. There are two critical success factors : make sure retail shorts don’t cover and maximize their short position ( this puts more pressure on the process of covering) 2. Control the process and avoid interference from the outside ( e.g. explosive news from the company). With Lebby in the process of finalising deals and OFC in March, the window of opportunity for the institutions is now. They can position themselves for huge financial gains and need to act.
I have other information. Your point not to bet the farm on one big customer is well understood by LWLG. That’s what I wanted to convey and the AMS/Osram is a good example . Apple seems to have a way of dictating its terms on its suppliers. Just read Apple and Rockley Photonics legal fight on smart watch blood pressure patents and Rockley’s business fate.
Druidelf44, if I may give you some advice. Why don’t you do some research. Have a look at the bio’s of BOD and especially the Lebby appointed Advisory committee of LWLG. Also have a look at the business model of Universal Display. It may clear up some things for you. Give it a try.
LWLG offers non exclusive deals. It just underlines Lebby and LWLG are so much more business savvy than others. Osram/AMS and its mini LED’ s development ‘bet the farm ‘ on Apple’s self driving car, which project was cancelled last week. Moreover LWLG is not building a factory in Malaysia as Osram did, LWLG uses the existing foundry infrastructure. Maybe Apple also realized there was another better competing active mini light switching photonics technology with low energy consumption available. Who knows?
It’s obvious to any neutral reader here that friction on this board is increasing and that the exchanges here between long and informed investors/ shareholders and non- shareholders is nearing boiling point. There is a lot at stake for the shorts non- shareholders. The risk/ reward ratio is now completely tilted towards the latter as their messages are becoming more incoherent and unhinged. It’s a clear sign they are ‘ losing’ it. I would say place your bets, if anything, the representatives of the institutions who are absent on this message board may well start to think and plan the launch of an artificial squeeze to reduce their overall risks with the window of opportunity to do so about to close.
Happy to be a real shareholder. JMHO.
The LwLG business model similar is to OLED ‘s ( organic light emitting diode ) business model as commercialized by their Universal Display Company.
Lebby had often used this analogy.
Fyi…. Universal Display Corporation (UDC) operates using a business model that centers around the development and licensing of OLED technologies and materials. UDC is a leading supplier of materials and technology for OLED displays and lighting. The company's business model involves the research, development, and commercialization of OLED technologies, as well as the licensing of its proprietary OLED technologies and materials to manufacturers in various industries. UDC generates revenue through the sale of its OLED materials and through licensing agreements with manufacturers who incorporate UDC's technology into their products. This business model allows UDC to play a key role in the advancement and widespread adoption of OLED technology across different market segments.
Sorry for my editing. Anyway the business strategy is well articulated in all of Lightwave’s presentations.
The shorts here are thieves in my book . Call and put options are legit if you don’t want to own shares. Shorts ( try to) steal money from the real shareholders. The company is funded by the shares it issued. Institutions and retail shareholders own the outstanding shares and are therefore legit in my book. Institutions are accumulating and absorb new LWLG shares fully legit .
Shorts steal and live from FUD and don’t own shares. Don’t understand why people keep talking to people who don’t own shares, don’t give a shit about the company and are just here to steal your money. It’s like inviting the burglar to your house and inviting him to look around and when he leaves asking him to change profession. Have a nice weekend