Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
People here continue 'to catch flies between themselves' whilst the company shows tremendous progress. That's what should be subject of discussion. The company is working on mass fabrication to be able to serve it's Tier 1 volume customers in my opinion. Don't understand why people don't see this.
I tried my best for today. Go for a game of golf.
On the left the magnified ( surrounded by a green square) part of a 200 mm wafer with many different device structures, not just modulators. Of course the different parts on the wafer need to be diced and stacked into a entire PIC. Obviously the 200 mm wafer has been produced and contains all the elements to construct the PIC. On the right uou see a picture of an 800 G comparison betwen Arista and Lighwave's slot modulator of the 2023 ASM. For a good observer even this configuration can be identified on the 200 mm wafer.
What does it mean: Lightwave is close or even ready for mass scaling of its PIC's.
Hope all the people here understand the magnitude and the implication of this achievement.
1. you see a 200 mm wafer and:
2. you see modulators
3. you see elements for the PIC on the wafer
all coming from the foundry.
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/pw/AP1GczN_OfKeVeg4mo0iQCZRaI3hXhLt0B_3QB1WhmGNuaFsQkPH50Htq0BVsj5PPAwy7dKn1aWmMt3wbbiJO14k1kskoxtp2rcpjqeI21ZRBMFXWM-efWnApvtn-w4KZaiaZ5XTfr8sJbeFbrmCFesFFekyA7rcGwTb6FrXjw03ZllsUOafYfvgK2gglHmYucmsLep8AUfC_mgpp5ehhXMEdMNSnr5tlblDvKX1Zd6cbegbRy4812nE_pzlrTlRt8O4S48VD0-2SMq8atqllIEfjCK_QK02NX7045AwKyU7dABdZ-FbXYBfW-ryVLKsBCYInLCRTIsmS3VJKpTWarkC827NmqGN1opIGhfYtkUPqusYVreS0udRDXm2XEW95byLkkhucczsMYSBj_0p59-ezDIHdu03Z3MU_wzS2trShpSkIWDZiK1wX1EHcpv6E5K9p32lsB6idCHfcSXqVF1wpjoQtgcOVclkl8arNNRHhEWHiKnZQeWRxIqCzr9hKWjwSUz2UWHtI1emZou8QlvxYjE85825lNiw1SM19AVaeujozKe5GZQb2cv66xb0O7G5aIZbrHXa_LSl01dDgk5V8DajtqKHjF-PpkFi96yKUtf67wZ2m9YTyvpIF5Wfbm7NvUih36lVNjVlvZ_mqhhAm4MkKkeGDlJh9jXo83L3_g5ukpuKLYila1ihDlOfRgzi-aIpFSub8YHegZzBKd7r26zGuZ22PvH-MTz8gSSuULks6Had10pynLJt4eSw5MwRN-hUahULJphYDVI7tGJG1ZkBxhekp2dGnI0J8UV-7iesNJtvYUTuonHYlINp_9v-kqVu62fzmMkckkFw-KQzETwy5sn3Z0PCZlp_h2znMjNMUtD4XI8Tg1ZS9yPX52u9ZH2Sdi25SxJGP8exDJ05zUmu77VK=w1432-h798-s-no-gm?authuser=0
Ruud, I am afraid that the happier we get, the more the shorts will push it down until such time!
Fortunately we can rely on some excellent technical people who understand more about the complexity of the technology and read the company communication differently than the ‘ average shareholder ( me included). In fact Lebby’s presentations often include information which is not noticed by the audience . Probably an area where a good PR company could do a better job. Simplifying and making it more understandable for shareholders. It is very different to communicate among ‘ nerds’ or to communicate to the general public.
Studying the 200 mm wafer coming from the foundry and magnifying it ( pictures are available in LWLG presentations) clearly shows arrayed modulators configurations or a PIC, as well as other single modulators. Wafers need to be sliced to separate the various parts. Obviously ‘ under construction’ means ‘ in manufacturing ‘, it’s being build. Seems to me the final step . I am very confident a surprise is in the making.
I think it’s very important to tell my Belgian friends who attended the Antwerp event and heard Lebby use the word ‘ under construction ‘ for the 4 modulator arrayed PIC on a 200 mm wafer, that ‘ under construction’ means ‘perfecting the wafer runs for mass scale production’ ! I guess people heard ‘ Tier 1 deals’ and than ‘ under construction’ and concluded ( like me) this could take longer than expected. Wrong interpretation. It means exactly that we are progressing as planned and indicated and moving to mass scale production. I honestly think a lot of people got confused and drew the wrong conclusion. Sometimes communication has its pitfalls. Sometimes with far reaching consequences if speaker and audience are on different ‘wavelengths’ . Hope this helps.
Will do ( my) tonight. On my to the golf.
One question I asked was: “ last year in 2023 you gave volume guidance during the ASM. Given the increased stated interest in your presentations over the last couple of months and especially after OFC, as you just indicated again, can you reconfirm those volumes kind of as a minimum and/ or may we also expect increased volumes as a result of the increased interest? The answer I and others heard was : “ the increased excitement could indeed lead to a revision of these volumes”.
There is only one inescapable interpretation based on cause and effect …! Of course he couldn’t say : yes, and he couldn’t say: no. Both answers would have brought him in legal problems.
For many years my business activities in a public company in the USA were internally appraised by my contribution to earnings and therefore easily translated into dollar figures per share.
At the end of the day and consolidated this would add up to the overall company earnings per share. The market share price often already anticipated the earnings and only if we would deliver a few cents more than expected would the share price go up. Record quarters or record years were often met with a ‘yawn’ because this performance was a kind of filtered in by the market. Sometimes when we laid off people in one of the many factories, the share price would go up, because it wasn’t expected and it the ( perverse) market saw it as an unexpected cost reduction and earnings improvement.
Why do I mention this ? Because there is a difference between today’s share price and expectations and to fully understand what future directed actions by company leadership and employees are under way.
Simple, Lebby wants to win the end game and that is exceptional and sustainable shareholder value for the long term. Today’s share price is a reflection of current market sentiment,
That will change when Lebby and company are able to surprise the market. That surprise is in the making. I am convinced. The surprise will have the most impact on those who didn’t think it would happen. That’s the law of the market.
Our questions were around the following aspects: market interest, partner progress, reliability and possible customer concerns, customer readiness, organizational morale, financial sustainability and 2023 volume guidance revision. Most of these questions were addressed direct or indirectly and where legally possible. So most of us went home with a deeper understanding:
Did you hear my question (s) to Michael Lebby ? No, you didn’t. Asking questions is a powerful tool. We learned that from the old Greek philosophers. It’s much more powerful to gain insights than making ‘ cocked up’ statements. Lots to learn from questioning.
Lebby’s latest presentation is on the Lightwave website. If you mean our notes and summary ? I can provide that and will because I appreciate people who are interested to take in information and than make up their mind.
Be aware that there is a whole army of smart asses here who have already ridiculed and questioned our interpretations without even participating in the event. They don’t need additional information, because they made up their mind long ago.
will do
Atikem is a Marketing & Sales guy and it shows. He is more open and a simplifier of complex technology issues for consumption by investors. Lebby appreciates him very much and told me: ' Atikem is really, really very good with customers'. Both gentlemen complement each other very nicely, Atikem combines deep industry understanding with excellent relationship management and development. He gave me a great insights in the current business dynamics and I can better relate to his insights since I am not an engineer and certainly no sparring partner to Lebby who is a global thought leader on photonics and the ideal CEO in this complex and highly technical field with mine fields full of engineering & manufacturing complexities. Most of my contributions here the last couple of days are based on his input. The sense of urgency in the supply chain. the sudden acceleration of new Tier 1 demands on Lightwave's organization and urgency of requirements is based on my discussions with him. Engineering teams on both sides are working their asses off to make it happen.
Been there, done it. Next best option is to get a head start on the competitors and/or partners form an alliance. It requires for both parties to prioritize and work faster. From a partner perspective, it requires company leadership support, resource allocation and exersizing maximum pressure on Lightwave. It feels like being 'dragged along'.
I will take care. I assume you read Dutch?
That’s kind of happening already. It’s ‘ algo’s against the people’ . Algorithms are in fact a positive thing here. Algo’s have no emotions and will reverse course quickly if they have created the platform to make more money by letting the share price reverse course as well. The people you refer to here are hired to work on the emotions of retail investors. It’s their job, Just disregard their messages, you mood will improve.
No problem. If you get Walter’s updates you will have it already. Let me know.
Yes around 40 NDA’s. Never claimed all Tier1’s. Don’t think there are even 40 Tier 1’s. I told this board 2-3 years ago I thought there were 13 NDA’s. I repeated that number last week and asked for confirmation . That number was now ‘“ at least 3X” ( 3X 13= 39). I made it around 40. I have witnesses that heard this statement as well. I wouldn’t put a number up here without a verifiable source. Yes LWLG has decided to allocate its current engineering resources to Tier 1 companies ( not 40 ). Seems a wise business choice for the moment and yes there is a lot of pressure from these companies to make it happen asap.
Just home. Will get to you all.
Kijk in je mail.
NRDC, happened to see you post. Love you for all the enlightenment you bring to this board and especially the great, constructive contributions. Your entrepreneurial capabilities are a delight to this board.
Nice to see that the first companies that adopted PAM 4 ( development started at Bell labs during the ninetees) from 2014 onwards and jumped over the ‘ fence’ for this more complex and more expensive modulation doubling data transmission were Finisar, followed by Broadcom, followed by Marvell and Lumentum. Than the rest of the industry followed and since 2019 it’s an industry standard. Will these companies be the first to adopt our LWLG modulation which through its simplicity, cost & power savings triples data transmission? Very likely in my opinion. The urgency and need for a next jump in data.transmission speed , capacity and power reduction has become a pressing necessity. AI is the new catalyst. Lightwave has a future proof solution. The big boys want it ‘ yesterday’!
Send me your email by private post.
Really good question , please realize that timing is always a tricky issue in a select forum. It is surrounded by competitive and very much legal limitations. Realize however that LWLG can sell single modulators for integration to e.g. a transceiver company who creates its own ‘PIC’ or Lightwave can deliver PIC’s ( including all componentry and 4 modulators plus packaging) sell its own 4x 200G PIC’s to anybody. I did not hear any changes of plan.
Did see it. My answer is blocked. I would need a private email address.
My interpretation is around forty ( 40)!
Guys check your emails.
Tomorrow ok?
Thanks to Walter’s time and effort I was able to attend a great investor event in Antwerp with some 150 people attending. I think all Niocorp shareholders. Mark had a ‘ revealing’ presentation in that he really tried hard to invest confidence in the audience without overstepping legal and regulatory limitations. On EXIM I understood that they are at least three times a week in direct contact. It’s an educational process for EXIM as well since our mine is in the US with its own demanding legal, environmental and societal demands which is quite different from the process in e.g. Congo or Malaysia, EXIM’s usual operating field. Scott Honan is the best guy in the US to perform this educational job. EXIM progresses and a positive outcome is anticipated. Loan anticipation for 10 year’s repayment and at 10 year Treasure interest ( 4,6%). Other sources double digit interest rates. Stellantis takes more time than anticipated, high critical leadership turnover in procurement, but seem back on track. Off take and equity participation in the works. EXIM deal would accelerate interest for equity participation. Other equity parties and off take agreements available. Did not gives us Feasibilty Study timing ( since 45 day clock would start ticking), but shared the financial inputs currently available without communicating Feasibility final results. Sharp shareholders can do their own calculations. Financials imo are truly impressive better balance of niobium, scandium, titanium, rare earth ( 30/30/ 24/16 ) on higher revenue inputs, due to better extraction rates and purity levels and higher market prices , less capex, more inflation, lower interest ( EXIM)? .
Sure more to come, missed a lot. Presentation should be available soon. Sure Walter will be able to get us more details. Left event very confident: No doubt this will happen soon in 2024.
It's likely that Lightwave is creating additional in house manufacturing capabilities. Dr Zyskind , who was brought in from retirement, may not be around forever and the need for in house manufacturing capabilities to assist their down stream OSAT or CM customers/ verticals will be growing.
Exactly and before any criticism on Lebby presence: attending ( leading) these conference gives the CEO a direct source of competitive information, industry direction, technology and product innovations in a very early stage. It beats reading expensive reports. I know a few owner/ CEO’s who would start the day by studying newly published patents. With today’s Wallstreet short term financial focus many CEO’s have forgotten that splendid source of competitive intelligence. Happy Lebby follows this best practice.
I do understand that traders will use any argument to create volatility. Volatility is a prime requirement for trading, but the personal attacks and viciousness of messages seems to increase day by day. Don’t know if this driven by sheer greed considerations or a generational or cultural thing, but it bothers me a lot. Having said that looking forward to our investor meeting in Belgium tomorrow. Always good to meet fellow investors and to have an opportunity to ask questions and get direct feedback from the company leadership.
I can see the logic for this Nasdaq-only decision. For me it means less currency conversion or currency exposure. Just US dollars and Euro's.
We have sent our questions to Mark Smith and Jim Sims to prepare for our meetings this week in Europe. I am not going to publish them here, but anybody of the long term shareholders is able to guess what those questions are.
As you al;l know no new public statements are to be made to a selection of shareholders ( around 150 on Friday and 200 on Saturday).
To put some color around those questions I sent this email with Sims:
" Please realise that there is a category of people out in the market who live and make money due to the absence of news. No news is an important part of their business model and a way of transferring lots of money from long term investors to short term traders. I also am aware that past management expectations have not always resulted in the expected outcome. The share price is at 27% of the pre- reverse split numbers. Most shareholders are looking at paper losses. We want confidence and reassurance and the conviction that this management 'can pull it off'.
There must be ways of creating such an effect.
"
Here is his answer: " ...that is certainly my goal (and Mark’s, of course). It is frustrating to not be able to always communicate about the many initiatives we have underway – and there are many underway right now on financing and other elements of the Project – but we are often constrained against doing so. Mark will certainly share what he can this weekend in terms of what we have underway and how we see the road ahead. I discourage putting out specific dates on those things that are not under our direct control, but I don’t always win that argument. "
Looking forward to see a rebirth of excitement .
Good to keep a helicopter view and to keep your ear atuned to those that matter. Good we have an opportunity to ask the right questions to Lebby this week. Many of the 'hate trading gang' are indeed stuck in the mud and can't see the Lightwave light and nervously continue keep talking to themselves and crowd out this board. Good to know they will remain in their dirt hole forever and turn into worms soon.
Intel has agreed to move its silicon photonics transceiver business to Jabil last year. I guess they put their design teams on new technology, I haven’t seen any competition with MZ modulators based on silicon photonics with more than 100 Gbps per lane ( 8x100, 16x100). So Marvell’s announcement remains intriguing.
Say that again. Looks complicated with 16 and 32 lanes. Nevertheless from where do they get their silicon photonics modulators to switch 200 Gbps per lane?
Marvell Technologies announcing groundbreaking data center transceivers mid 2024 using 200 Gbps per lane and silicon photonics. Now who would be able to supply 200 G per lane modulators on a silicon photonics platform? I know only of one company! Marvell delivers its products to Google, Microsoft and AWS and they are projecting a gigantic datacenter TAM between 2023 and 2028 from 21 B to 75 B. None of these huge developments are included in the analyst projections. ‘The market’ doesn’t know ( yet).
I may assume that the ‘excessive bonus’ and the ‘ grifters’ arguments on this board do no longer hold any merit, given the executive 35-40 % bonus pay out over fiscal year 2023. I guess the 2023 performance. was a disappointment for all involved and, in hindsight, the 2023 BOD established management goals proved to be too ambitious time wise. Kind of proving that the BOD understand their professional and fiduciary responsibilities.
We can now focus on 2024 and wish management will wildly exceed the 2024 objectives.