Are people forgetting something about mos and the 2nd line nsclc data?
Lots of posts guessing/estimating the mos in the 3mg arm. Don't forget, though, that that is not going to be compared with typical control data, but with the pooling of placebo and 1mg bavi arms.
9/7 pr had 13.1 for the 3mg, 11.1 for the 1 mg and 5.6 for the control.
The new control will be pooled from the 40 1mg patients and 38 control. Maybe that puts the new control arm halfway between 11.1 and 5.6 (though hard to know with the info I have seen) - somewhere around 8.4 months. Rises to the 3mg arm mos, may well be accompanied by rises to the 1mg arm mos, and this would further raise the comparison group.
13.1 vs 8.4 is more like 10.3 vs 5.6 (the orignal control arm) when looking at how many months of life the data says bavi 3mg is adding.
Would love to see optimistic corrections of my napkin math here. Actually would love to see any corrections, since I want to understand where things really are with the data.