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I agree coincidences are few and far between. Many market moves are predetermined just my 2 cents worth. That's why I am taking my chips off of this table on the spike Could go either way at this point.
Have not seen that episode in a long time. Glad you caught it. I apologize if I crossed the line just popped up in my head like a steering column full of axle grease.
I am guessing they window dress hubcaps lesh commentary for a few days then window dress end of quarter. Only 12 trading days left. But adding daily in case I am wrong.
Another fed raising rates rally. Closing in on 400 days now since a market correction. Not healthy at all for the market long term but until then bubble on.
Think you can stick a fork in the winter of 2016-2017 looks like another warm ridge is building across the interior mid march.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/
Looks like NG going to end withdrawl season around 2000 bcf storage after all. Whoda thunk it.
Goldman has a big footprint in NG think that's one reason you see all these irrational moves. Almost impossible to time a top or bottom.
http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Goldman-Sachs-Is-Now-Bigger-Than-Exxon-Chevron-in-Nat-Gas-Trading.html
I am almost always too early. Should have stayed on the DGAZ sunny side. UNG april puts tell me another push down very possible. Winter of the fizzled La Nina.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2017/02/09/la-nina-la-nada-enso-neutral-climate/97692596/
Good Question March retraced all the way back to the night before the election 2.55. But who knows. Gonna take 1/3-1/2 position.
CME must have removed the daily limits this is crazy.
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/price-limit-guide.html
Freefalling keep poking at it glutton for punishment I guess.
Usually 7% move in NG max move intraday. One crazy commodity. Hard to believe NG was 3.77 just 6-7 weeks ago.
VIX is showing a market pullback on the horizon. Bamks up again today on a hawkish fed. Market was up last week on dovish fed comments. Pretty much all spin at this point.
Equity market today reminds me of when Goldman ran oil to 140 in 08. Almost everyday a rolodex of a reason was presented for increased prices. Then the rolodex would spin and a remanufactured but similar reason presented by the media outlets.
Looks like they are running the banks again today possibly on Yellen testimony. That's when they took off. Tech looks way overbought. Possibly run energy again tomorrow.
Today actually marks 1 year since the last market correction. Brexit and the election were overnight/1 day events. No doubt in unchartered territory.
Snow cover Map US middle of winter. And this is with a warmer than normal Feb in the forecast. Think its just a matter of time before Nat breaks below 3.
http://www.intellicast.com/Travel/Weather/Snow/Cover.aspx
Gonna be above the 5 year storage average next Thursday and my guess stay that way through the rest of withdrawl season.
Big dow components reporting tomorrow and the 18th. Goldman on the 18th. My guess dow 20k by next Wed. Markets are totally controlled at this point. They could have already had the print but decided to wait for a blowout earnings report.
When they want the price up EIA estimate is lowballed. Just that simple in my opinion. That's the only way to spin a 150 BCF draw as positive in the middle of winter.
Really odd dow 19999 to be sure the bots can get one more tick. VIX hit 10's today market is really pulling on a string.
Going to be pretty ironic if US debt hits 20 trillion at the same time DOW hits 20 thousand.
"blizzard artic cold all over the freaking place" you should apply for a job with abc nightly news. You would fit right in.
Celsius energy showing -128 -196 -179 draws weeks 2-4 those are well above average. One crazy commodity just a few weeks ago record storage now going up everyday on demand issues.
Some forecast are showing another cold blast mid next week midwest. Not showing up on accuweather but seeing 0's Chicago on some.
Closed strong. Heating oil actually sold off into the close. All the yanks that switched to ng gonna be unhappy campers this winter.
Usually cold in the Carolinas is more of a west to east event as opposed to a state to state event. It can be colder in say Columbia, sc than elizabeth city nc regularly. This cold blast looks like its going all the way to north florida with freezing temps. Difference between 2 adjacent mid atlantic states is minimal.
Hope you are right. Hard to believe the natural gas market didn't see winter coming. Right there on the calendar. Anywhere 3.60-4.00 Jan Feb contracts would be golden. This looks like an average or even weak La Nina plus Oversupply based on 5yr avg at this point would offset being a net Exporter.
Basically little logic to the natural gas trade even though people try to use logic. Todays run for example based on a -50 bcf draw perceived as bullish and cooler weather in the Midwest upcoming. You could have a homeless guy with a computer give him 20 million he could sit there all day on a park bench buy futures and create the same result.
Yeahh you aint kidding 4.59 4.49 4.38 4.32 4.28 4.22 today wearing me out. Trying to open up more room for Fri and the possibility of the 3rd straight weekend NG gap up.
Market is factoring in a colder than normal winter. NOAA believe this is an update on La Nina yesterday. Looks warm dry south southwest some cold Midwest wet average Northeast.
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/news/la-nina-outlook-impacts-winter-2016-17
Hard to find the exact top on a parabolic move. Election night saw the bottom 2.55 about 1am. Almost straight up since for 3 weeks. Gonna just keep poking at it around here.
That's the first time I have heard the term p0lar v0rtex in years. Wow that's sounds cold. Now all I need to hear is Siberian express and i may finally put the shorts toward the back of the closet.
Wow that's bullish if it comes to fruition. -100 average per week. They are also showing end of season 1503 way below last year. Just some quick jethro math -2100 14 weeks that's an average of -150.
DOW 19k I am guessing they will let these round numbers marinate thru thanksgiving. Then December soak in holiday sales dollar appreciation and the next fed meeting. All that stuff should really move the market.
Week ending Nov 25 - Week ending Dec 9 -251. 3 week period. Higher than the 5 yr average for draws but not seeing it in the weather forecast especially departure from lows. I think they even moved it up now -267 for the 3 weeks.
Weekends and natural gas expect something to happen. I just don't see any change in the weather patterns from Friday. Celsius energy is calling for -251 draws for the week ending this Friday thru dec 9. I saw that thought I was on the wrong planet.
Thinkin late winter colder than last year especially east coast. La Nina currently weak but present. Weather patterns can change real fast. Contango levels off jan-feb contract.
Cash has already dropped to 2.03. That is not going to be conducive to increasing rig counts. La Nina should remain steady nothing like last years El Nino setup. I am thinking when the weather pattern changes December going to be quick. Until then a bottoming process.
Dec at 2.67 dropping right into the contango for max pain.