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ALQA... is an advanced wound management and drug delivery company that strives to deliver superior outcomes to patients, providers, and partners through its platform technologies and unique, proprietary wound care products.
The company has an incredible management team for such a small marketcap.
Company recently performed a 1:43.5 RS to take the necessary steps to uplist on the Nasdaq. It was most likely also necessary for the partnership with Celgene, which quickly followed, bringing in 6 million, and appointing a member from Celgene - Kerry Parson - to their board of directors.
While the stock is up over 100% since the RS, it's market cap is still only approximately $70 million - and this increase in market cap makes sense for such a small company that has CELG investing in it.
I believe this company is going to be one of the major players in the wound care sector. There are significant upcoming catalysts. For a full review of the company and upcoming events, check out the investor presentation at the below link.
http://ir.stockpr.com/alliqua/presentations
Good luck to all.
ATHX... Sheff, I was hoping you could clarify some of the things surrounding a secondary offering. It seems like it would be dumb to buy the stock at the offering price of 4.10. Does that mean the company is going to have to cancel that offering and do another one at a lower price? Or was there already an agreement in place for people to buy the stock at the offering price when it was announced? Thanks for the help.
Disregard. Looks like enrollment has completed and it just hasn't been pr'd yet.
The phase 2b for IBS-C is 12 wks + 2 week follow-up. The company has not released statement for enrollment completion. I don't see how we can get results in 1q14. Any thoughts?
Interesting that you are "watching" this dud. A single day gain of 40% is weakness because it was an insufficient bounce, and a 7% run in the last half hour was too little, but a 10% drop after a 2 day gain of 77% is monumental. ZZZ. Doctor, please get your calculator out and tell me after this three day span of a 77% gain and a 10% loss if I'm in the green or the red? Thanks for your advice. Based on your posts I can tell you have nothing of substance to add to this conversation, so continue to post what you want, I'm finished wasting time responding to someone who can't hold a discussion. Happy bashing, and good luck with that 3.50 target.
That's a joke right? You're saying that all of your statements are accurate because you were able to "predict" a pull back after a 2 day runup of 77%? The etrade baby could tell you there was going to be profit taking after that kind of runup. And a 10% down day after a 77% runup isn't weakness, it's expected. So congratulations on "predicting the future." I predict that tomorrow will be Friday. IM BRILLIANT!!! Get off your podium please.
My expectations: I would not be surprised to see the stock drop some more before the announcement of a listing (probably nasdaqcm), which will cause it to spike back up. 3.50 range? Dont see that happening. Just my opinion though, because I don't actually see the future like the good Doctor.
Wow... I'm going to disagree with all your points.
1. "Real value of stock is around 3.5".
The r/s was 1:43.75. The sp prior to rs was 0.08. The math: 43.75 * 0.08 = 3.5. So what you are saying is that the stock is valued at the EXACT same after the announcement of the celg deal? That can't make sense.
2. "When an OTC nothing company".
If you believe this is a nothing company, then why are you watching it? I also recommend doing some research on their current products, their pipeline, and their management before making that statement.
3. "The association pop only lasts one day"
Please post examples to back up statements.
4. "Bad sign this ticker only managed to tread water after the pop with no EOD rally"
The stock was up 90% after announcement of celg deal. On one hand, you say the stock is supposed to run harder EOD, but on the other hand you say it's supposed to drop tomorrow. I'm confused. I'll take a single day 45% gain. I obviously didn't expect it to stay at 90% and I don't think any reasonable person did. By the way, the stock ran from 5.70 at 2:35 to a close of 6.10. That's 7%. Who here doesn't think a 7% gain is significant?
Welcome to hear more from you, but please base it on fact and realistic statements. Right now it really just sounds like you want to scare people so you can hop in at a lower price. Even if that's not your intent, that's what your post sounded like.
GLTAL
"The company anticipates 3-4 months (top-line data 6 weeks after database lock) for complete analysis, substantially longer than other similarly sized oncology programs."
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1629402-immunocellular-stagnates-with-trial-read-out-still-months-away?source=yahoo
Obviously not a direct quote from the company, but don't feel like doing the research at this time to find it. The top-line data will be pretty key though.
PGNX..4.67 Was really expecting this one to bounce today. I would have thought the group that was looking for a quick trade on the stock would have all gotten out yesterday when the announcement for the ADCOM date was made, and that the long term investors would be extremely happy an ADCOM was set, and would hold their shares, expecting the stock to rise since the uncertainty had been removed. I guess this is just one more reminder that nothing is guaranteed in the market.
PGNX.. 1353 shares bought at $5.03 in AA at 1820. Guy must have REALLY wanted those shares. Guess we will find out tomorrow how smart he is.
IMUC DD..2.65
Trial results in the fourth quarter of 2013 or first quarter of 2014 from its ongoing Phase IIB trial of the dendritic cell-based immunotherapy ICT-107 in patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma. This is based on event-rate assumptions and is by no means a hard deadline.
52wk Range: 1.51 - 3.69
Avg Vol (3m): 1,098,070
Cash as of June 30: $25.5M
Burn rate: ~1M/month
ATM: IMUC entered into an At-the-Market sales agreement on April 18, 2013 for up to $25 million in aggregate. The company raised $400K during Q2 through the ATM, and during July & August, raised another $2.1M, for $2.5M net from the ATM facility.
A number of people on twitter are talking about a secondary, however, the company has significant cash compared to burn rate, an ATM, and the following statement:
From 10-Q: "However, we believe that our existing cash balances will be sufficient to fund our operations for at least the next twelve months, although there is no assurance that such proceeds will be sufficient."
Faruqi & Faruqi, LLP lawsuit: From Forbes: "Faruqi & Faruqi is a little Wall Street law firm that makes a living on the fringes of the securities-litigation business. Specifically, lawyers there specialize in extracting fees from corporations who find it less expensive to pay them off than to litigate."
10-Q: http://quote.morningstar.com/stock-filing/Quarterly-Report/2013/6/30/t.aspx?t=XASE:IMUC&ft=10-Q&d=125da66f5afd691ad27958a4767ed524
SA Article: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1629402-immunocellular-stagnates-with-trial-read-out-still-months-away?source=yahoo
Investigation: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/faruqi-faruqi-llp-launches-investigation-230000194.html
Forbes article about faruqi: http://www.forbes.com/sites/danielfisher/2013/03/14/faruqi-faruqis-clouded-reputation-takes-another-hit-with-sex-suit/
DD... Doing my DD on the stock, and wanted to mention a few things.
I would be hesitant to speak in absolutes, and would recommend posting your source. The company said they think they can get by for the next 12 months without raising funds: (10-Q from 08AUG).
"However, we believe that our existing cash balances will be sufficient to fund our operations for at least the next twelve months, although there is no assurance that such proceeds will be sufficient."
I was hoping that someone could provide clarification on one item:
The company stated "As of June 30, 2013, we had working capital of $25,031,191..." Later, they stated "...pursuant to which we may offer and sell, from time to time through Cantor, shares of our common stock having an aggregate offering price of up to $25.0 million" I'm almost positive that this $25 million from the sell of stocks cannot be counted towards the "working capital", but could someone confirm this?
DD... I'm currently doing my DD on this stock, and there is one issue that concerns me: (from the 10-Q)
"During the quarter ended June 30, 2013, we sold 2,075,000 shares to Aspire Capital at an average price of $1.85 per share, and during the six-month period ended June 30, 2013, we sold 3,398,305 shares to Aspire Capital at an average price of $1.73 per share. From its inception through August 1, 2013, we have issued 5,064,972 shares and received aggregate gross proceeds of approximately $8.4 million under the equity purchase agreement."
Aspire Capital owns less than 10% of the company, so they don't have to file their trades. They are guaranteed to receive shares of the stock at a discount to market value: (also from the 10-Q)
"Under the agreement, we have the right to sell shares, subject to certain volume limitations and a minimum floor price, at a modest discount to the prevailing market price."
Aspire Capital can just dump these shares as soon as they get them, and make $$.
The company had $18.9 million at the end of June 30th, and is losing ~6 million a QTR. It looks like they are going to have to continue selling large numbers of shares to Aspire Capital, which is going to place a ceiling on the SP if Aspire Capital is turning around and selling these. Any thoughts?
PGNX..5.39 Moving again on no news and low volume. This one moves very quickly.
NAVB.. it is dropping for the same reason it always dropped. Shorts are much better at the game. A lot of people think Montaur has caused a lot of the price movement by shorting the stock down and then covering and reversing position, although ddbuyer has refuted this multiple times. Although short interest has dropped over the last month or two, I think this stock is still the most heavily shorted on the Nasdaq. It's not going to go very far above 3 until the shorts get out of it. Even if lymphoseek sales surprise people, shorts will control the stock. It certainly has amazing potential with the drugs in its pipeline, but I think you're looking at years to see a return on your investment. IMO of course. Good luck.
PGNX..5.35 Up almost 6% on no news. Can't even find anything on twitter. Maybe a leak of an ADCOM date? Anyone know more?
ATRS.. 4.02 staying flat here with really nice volume. Anyone know if large blocks are on both sides or if someone is sitting on either the bid or ask?
OT Navy Yard Shooter.. Please pray for these people.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/police-search-for-active-shooter-on-grounds-of-washington-navy-yard-in-southeast-dc/2013/09/16/b1d72b9a-1ecb-11e3-b7d1-7153ad47b549_story.html
MACK.. $heff do you think the company or insiders are dumping shares? I haven't seen any sec files for insider trades, and I would think they would have dumped prior to offering if they were going to at all. Also, does company have an ATM option? I didn't see one. Wouldn't think the company would need it after the offering.
The question was why such a large spike in volume
Since I know some people are sensitive to questions, let me begin by saying that I'm long Alqa. I have ~20% of my portfolio invested in the company, and orders open to increase my position by ~30%. That being said, today's trading was extremely confusing. There were 1.3 million shares traded, with the stock price ending pretty much flat. That means there were 650k shares sold, and 650k shares bought. Now the selling of shares isn't much of a surprise. The stock has runup 25%(max of 33%) in the last 5 days, and I'm certain there are people taking profits. I'm sure there are also people who bought in around this level back in Feb/Mar and are finally happy to get out even. It's the 650k shares that were bought that confuses me. The stock has traded around the 0.6-0.7 level for about 3 months now, and there were plenty of shares to buy then. But now people are buying at a level 25% higher than that, and buying an extreme number of shares. Obviously the first thing to look at would be the recent news. First there was the PR on 23JUL that announced the commencement of a new study for their hydrogel patch containing lidocaine. Honestly, I don't know what the size of this market would be. What I do know is that this is the initiation of a study, and it's going to take a while for any revenue to start coming in from this product, if the trials are successful and they can get FDA approval. The stock also sold off after that for the next 6 days, which makes me think this news didn't change anyone's opinion. The next news was on July 30th. This seemed to move the SP significantly. But to me the PR didn't really say anything that changed the fundamentals of the company. The revenue growth was good, but the company caveated this with the statement "benefitted somewhat from accelerated customer orders". Then there were the 5 key objectives. Objective 1 is known. Objective 2 is also known; the company has been stating for a few months now that they plan on reinvigorating their sales for currently approved products. The key part I got here was "as we look to significantly ramp our proprietary product sales heading into 2014". I was expecting that they had already been doing this, so that was a surprise that it's not going to happen until later this year/into 2014, which seems like bad news. They state that Objective 3 has been known. Objective 4 is a restatement of the July 23 PR. They also state that Objective 5 has been known, and it seems like a wishful thinking statement and no progress has been made on it, or they would have already updated us, as they state: "will continue to keep you updated on our progress." The "Critical Milestones" seem to be a restatement of the Objectives with a few specifics on how they hope to accomplish the objectives. But once again, it's not stating anything new that has happened. I don't see any fundamental shift in the company, but this somehow caused the stock to move that 25%, and then have people buy a significant number of shares at this higher SP. Sorry for such a long post, but hopefully someone can help me out here because I'm stumped. Can others please provide some opinions? Thanks all.
OT: The decision between cutting losses and moving on, or doubling down on a stock is one of the hardest for me to make as a trader. I know traditional wisdom is that if your initial fundamental reason for investing in the stock hasn't changed, then you should average down. However, I've learned from experience that no matter how far a stock has fallen, there is always room for it to fall more. If anyone is interested in sharing, I would be very interested in finding out how you go about making this decision. Thanks everyone.
CYTK.. Have you had a chance to read through the transcript yet Sheff? I was just starting to read through it.
PRAN..3.78 Continues to fly. Hindsight is such a terrible part of trading. Congrats to all of those with solid gains and all of those who continue to hold
MACK.. offering has to be closed by now. Why wouldn't the company announce it? Seems like that would provide a needed bounce.
Ya, I was happy to get a fill late in the afternoon at 2.99 to get back to full position. Plenty of room to run here.
Pran..3.00 sold half position yesterday and was expecting more of a pullback off the spike since the news was already known. Looks like I'll be getting back in at a higher price. Congrats to all that continued to hold.
CYTK..13.28 I hope you got in $heff, because this one turned quickly. A number of biotechs just went red to green in a hurry.
CHTP.. Hopefully the FDA will move forward with an ADCOM. That would provide a great pre-catalyst for the PDUFA. It would also provide a set date for those that want to get out early and not get caught by an early approval by the FDA (remember what happened to NAVB when they received approval about a month early). Has anyone seen a date set yet for the ADCOM? Their 2nd QTR filing also states they haven't used their ATM as of March 31. That's pretty impressive. Speaks well of their financial situation. I think you guys found a winner here.
MACK..4.83 I'm kicking myself for not doing the appropriately level of DD on this one. It looks like the key catalyst for run up is the top-line results for phase III trial of MM-398. The Seeking Alpha article lists Q4 13/Q1 14 as the release date. However, the trial lists December 2013 (Final data collection date for primary outcome measure). They would then require a period of time to analyze this data, so it looks much more like Q1 14 before results are released. Prior to the release, the company will have multiple data releases for Phase II trials of MM-121. The results are expected fail for non-small cell lung due to interim results. Although this should be priced in to the stock, I believe the final results will still cause a drop. I would imagine shorts are betting the other MM-121 Phase II trials will be negative as well, and will continue to add on any spike in SP. With all the Phase II trial results for MM-121 scheduled to be released prior to the Phase III data release for MM-398, I believe the stock will not have much of a runup for the MM-398 data release until the release of the Phase II data. Other thoughts are always welcome and GLTA.
Pran 2.61.. Has been holding 2.60 level nicely on decent volume. Reentered here.
PRAN..2.78 Link back to previous DD. Can't figure out how to post screenshot so I'll stay away from specifics. Sold about 70% of initial position. Going to give the stock a few days for a possible pullback before scaling back into position in anticipation of the runup continuing into PBT2 for HD data release in October and then for AD, which was recently updated from 1Q 2014 to March 2014.
http://www.pranabio.com/downloads/Media%20Releases/Media%20Releases%202013/July%203%202013%20Approval%20for%20Open%20Label%20Ext%20Study.pdf
OPK...I was right with you with your call on RMTI @ 3.35 (great job btw), which is why I'm torn on this trade. It reminds me a lot of NAVB with the short interest and great pipeline. A lot of people were caught off guard with the early Lymphoseek approval in March and sold quickly to lock in profits, however, short interest still increased by 3.5 million, and the stock was driven down. In this case, Frost might be able to prevent this by continuing to buy, however the shorts seem to work together pretty well to drive a stock down. I think the completion of the Phase III trial would be a good catalyst, but if data is released with that announcement, I could see the stock being driven down. Does anyone know what companies historically do? Announce the completion of the trial first, or release data with it? Thanks and good luck.
OPK... Seems like a tough trade with such a wide time frame for data release. I'm attempting to find a more specific date than just the second half of 13. Are you planning on holding through the release? Or do you think they will give a more specific data release date when they announce the completion of the trial?
Well, if the 1.35 didn't fill, he can pick it up at a discount now. Down 5% at 1.33.
RMTI..$4.14 up 4%. Bounce back from yesterday, or does anyone see news?
PRAN…$2.24—DD—Phase II Results OCT 13
52 week range: $1.45-$3.06
Outstanding Shares: 34 million
Float: 340 million
Short Interest: 348,000
Upcoming catalyst (s):
PBT2
The company is completing concurrent Phase 2 trials of PBT2 for Alzheimer’s disease, and Huntington’s disease. The HD trial is a 100-patient double blind trial to test safety and efficacy. The results are expected in October 2013.
PBT2 has been tested in a Phase 2a trial in mild to moderate AD patients. While the study was short (3 months), it demonstrated statistically significant benefit of lowering toxic amyloid ß levels in patients’ cerebrospinal fluid and more importantly improvement of executive function, when compared with placebo. The data was published in Lancet Neurology in 2008. Currently, Prana is running a 12-month Phase 2 trial in mild AD patients to ascertain PBT2’s impact on amyloid ß on cognitive function. Results are expected 1Q 2014.
Cash/Revenue Position: Prana had cash and investments of $9.1 million at March 31, 2013. First quarter 2013 net cash burn was $557,000. This was due to a tax refund of $2.5M. Approximate quarterly burn rate is $2M.
Prana raised $7M on March 27, which I do not believe is shown in the Q-1 report. This would give Prana $16M on hand at the end of March, which the company has stated is sufficient for operations through 2013.
Analyst Ratings:
Burrill Institutional Research
Rating: BUY $ Target: $5.00 (+123%)
http://www.pranabio.com/downloads/analyst_reviews/PRAN%20-%20Initiation%20Report%20by%20Burrill%20-%2012-19-12.pdf
Quarterly Report:
http://www.pranabio.com/downloads/Quarterly%20Reports/FY%202013/Appenix%204C%2031%20March%202013.pdf
Annual Report:
http://www.pranabio.com/downloads/Annual%20Reports/2012/Prana%20AR%202012%20FINAL.pdf
Recent Trial Updates:
http://www.pranabio.com/downloads/Media%20Releases/Media%20Releases%202013/Apr%203%202013%20Prana%20Provides%20Clinical%20Trials%20Update.pdf
CYTK.. Seems like the R/S will keep a lid on this until the company puts something out officially... even with the upcoming PII results. I also don't see anything more specific than "a few months" for the data release, so I think fewer run-up traders will play this one.
Kenneth Londoner purchases combined 219500 shares on Monday and Tuesday at average of 0.0683.
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/alqa/insider-trades