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Gerald's plan is being executed with precision; as many longs and flippers do not seem to understand that it takes time to manage and orchestrate a vast portfolio of assets. Amarantus has become a much more sophisticated company with a lot of moving parts lately.
More importantly, Gerald has a lot on his plate and his priorities are not to make every retail shareholder happy (although he tries damn hard to do so). I am really impressed with this guy's ability to communicate effectively and in a fluid nature to keep us all abreast of developments.
I strongly believe your patience will be handsomely rewarded (handling negotiations with 3rd parties like Pharma's, medical device companies, lawyers, the SEC, financiers is a complicated business indeed). Although they have hired some incredible talent; they are still a lean culture.
Again...let Walls street's confidence with accumulating shares do the talking ...there are several here who have hidden agendas with trying to create doubt and who are badmouthing the science in one way or another (I wonder who they are)..lol.
"IN GERALD WE TRUST"!!!!! And not some random message board poster know it all's. LMAO!
Its very simple: either you believe the CEO or you dont. Also, let the stock price confirm success or failure (any hype on a message board is meaningless compared to how the market values the company going forward).
Great due diligence Crusade (and in Gerald we trust). The speculative trading frenzy has started as of today (buy the rumor but dont sell the news..is my motto). Gerald is on the world stage shortly; I really dont think he will lose this opportunity to showcase LymPro in grand fashion.
I am expecting a surprise; but it wont be a LymPro partnership (just yet). Expect the run up to continue leading up to the Copenhagen abstract data presentations (what transpires on top of that is what juices me....we have all been waiting for showtime ...and its almost here). GLTA!!!!
Excellent post "JML": you can see this coming a mile away. Some posters are setting the stage set for a significant JV or Partnership within days or weeks. I think its still a month (or several months away). More importantly, the LymPro data releases will be strong; Gerald has acknowledged that our negotiating position will be leveraged greatly once the data is released.
Remember, Gerald could settle for a much smaller amount; but even a year ago he was adamant about going for the home run (as the potential Gold standard)...it will be worth every extra day, week or month to get the most significant upfront payment). Hopefully, JP will be correct that some will become millionaires overnight).
Well said!!! Gerald timed the Wolframs news to attack the shorts when the PPS was gaining momentum back down. Short are playing a very dangerous game now (and swing traders will just make small profits) as the smart money will step back in and absorb the selling pressure as well.
The stakes are rising significantly higher as AMBS will switch from preclinical news driven company to having drugs in clinical trials (Eltoprazine, MANF for Retinitis Pigmentosis, etc) and LymPro which is on the verge of commercialization (via CLIA certification).
Take note: Wall Street will start discounting future Revenue streams and assign a multiple to this valuation. Also, I believe the financial re engineering strategy is going to be huge here (and now expect that the Reverse split with be 8 to 1 ...or lower)..on leveraging the Diagnostic side of the business (to raise $$$$).
We are the 2nd inning of a 9 inning Ball game (and its really going to heat up very quickly here). New 52 weeks highs coming next week (or the week after). Book it!!!
Great chart and analysis. You can see the volume picking back up on the Bid (across the Biotech market). It could be a very good and interesting Summer indeed.
MANF RP is a $10 billion dollar market (without any competition). It will be a HUGE winner for AMBS. $$$$$$$$$$$$
Jembers: I would have to agree with you on only one point. It would be completely irresponsible for any CEO to speculate on market conditions and true impact to the PPS price (even if several significant milestones are released).
Gerald is much smarter to speculate on things he cant control. Its perfectly ok for any retail shareholder to speculate this way (but someone who seems to flip the stock like a Barnum and Bailey circus act will never have much credibility to me). Ever!!!!
Let the stock price do the talking; everything else is just banter.
Thanks JP: I believe that technical analysis will play a more important role going forward. We are moving closer to one of the last major resistance levels just above $.09 (forming a nice base right above $.08 right now and then one more resistance level right at $.10. Upon a successful close above $.10 on heavy volume...we are off to the races from there.
Also, July is fast approaching and the Copenhagen conference will blow things out of the water. By far, this is the most intriguing time to get aggressive on buying these shares (the chart continues to validate the bullish opinion and smart money is buying: just watch the volume on up days folks). GLTA!!!
Risk: As always; you have contributed greatly to help better our understanding here; and future potential upside with this investment (you are the king of dot connectors indeed).
Enjoy a day out on the beach and water (and surf with the best of them out there). Buenos dias Senor Risk!
Heavy volume and accumulation along with the potential positive news translates into a Stock chart that is overwhelmingly bullish. When a stock price starts breaking through a 50 day moving average and heavy resistance levels and is closing at the top of the trading range each day...the answer is Yes (a chart can signal a lot).
You can speculate your theories and I will use a combination of technical analysis, recognizing savvy management decisions regarding meeting milestones and executing, hiring smart people, having mind blowing science and this company being one of the most transparent I have ever invested in.....can add many more to the list. GLTA!!
You just might possibly see the below $.10 range gone for good on the next run up. I believe the chart is signaling a very major news release is on the way. I can only imagine how many will so deeply regret not buying when the PPS was down here.
Look at the Cup and Handle formation on the chart; it will break out right above $5 on heavy volume. The Cup was formed slightly above $5 (hitting there twice over several months) ....and the handle bottom was just formed down near $4.30 and its rising and as its ready to complete the Handle.
I am expecting some formidable news next week. Hold on Longs! Its our time!!!
Eventually, the company's management team will get its financial reward as it continues to attend all of these Conferences and money raising events. Also, the Science is just too compelling in many forms; and once one Pharma. arranges a collaboration or alliance somewhere across the portfolio....the stock will get the necessary validation and vote of support to launch upward.
In addition, what an incredible gift and opportunity to accumulate cheap and down at these levels. I am awaiting two major Earnings conference calls next week to see where my other stocks are going regarding getting clinical updates...can someone tell Gerald to hold off at least 2 more weeks before releasing all the good news coming....as I will look to potentially sell some of those holdings and continue to build a massive position here as quickly as possible.
Avanir Pharmaceuticals : Canaccord Genuity raises target to $10 from $6; buy
And Seeking Alpha is 100% trustworthy and nobody has biased positions in any particular stock that they cover? Remind me: did the biotech sector just get hammered and corrected well over 25% over the last few weeks? Amarantus is within that sector? Correct?
Indicative of failure for Amarantus; you buy the Science and look for a top notch management team to execute. More importantly,this is a very early stage company and will take time to flourish; and my money says these guys are going to be highly successful in multiple indications both short and long term.
JP: We can definitely speculate that something might be brewing; PhenoGuard has gone unnoticed in comparison to the rest of the pipeline and portfolio.
I tend to be very objective in my analysis; but the confidence shown by Mgt. today seems very strong...continue to add folks as the move upward will catch many by surprise over the next few weeks/months.
Very riveting Conference call: I was the one who asked the questions about MANF related to Diabetes I, the status of the Parkinsons program, Toxicology data results and the future Uplisting expectations.
Golden nugget: We moved to Janssen labs due to the primary interest in PhenoGuard (among other things). Dr. Commissiong to present at upcoming UK conference on status of PhenoGuard next week (very interesting development occuring there).
Btw: RISK did a great job with the Lympro questions too.
THROMBOEMBOLISM - PEG20
CELGENES Cancer drug REVLIMID had similar THROMBOEMBOLISM events and the FDA addressed the problem by mandating a Label warning (currently, REVLIMID is a very successfull drug that has been launched and selling for years). With HALO's PEG20 have a similar problem; and with the initial Survival looking for encouraging; I expect the FDA will move PEG20 forward mandate a similar Label warning as well.
Category DEA Schedule Marketing Status
HUMAN PRESCRIPTION DRUG LABEL New Drug Application
Drug Label Sections
Description
Clinical Pharmacology
Indications & Usage
Contraindications
Warnings
Precautions
Adverse Reactions
Overdosage
Dosage & Administration
How Supplied
Patient Counseling Information
Supplemental Patient Material
Boxed Warning
Patient Package Insert
Highlights
Full Table of Contents
Medication Guide
HIGHLIGHTS OF PRESCRIBING INFORMATION
These highlights do not include all the information needed to use REVLIMID® safely and effectively. See full prescribing information for REVLIMID.
REVLIMID [lenalidomide] capsules, for oral use
Initial U.S. Approval: 2005
WARNING: EMBRYO-FETAL TOXICITY, HEMATOLOGIC TOXICITY, and VENOUS THROMBOEMBOLISM Less
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MANF in Parkinson’s Disease (per the 10-K)
Our competitors include biotechnology companies focusing on neurotrophic factores for PD such as:
1. MedGenesis is developing GDNF as a disease modifying protein therapy treatment for Parkinson’s disease. This program is currently in a Phase 2 clinical trial using the Renishaw delivery device.
2. Sangamo recently acquired intellectual property rights to Neurturin gene therapy treatment for Parkinson’s disease from Ceregene, Inc. The program recently failed a Phase 2 clinical trial.
3. Hermo Pharma is developing CDNF as a disease modifying protein therapy treatment for Parkinson’s disease. The program is currently in preclinical development.
4. Amsterdam Molecular Therapeutics is developing as a disease modifying gene therapy treatment for Parkinson’s disease. They are currently in preclinical development.
5. Neurodyn is currently developing PDGF as a disease modifying protein therapy treatment for Parkinson’s disease.
6. Academic institutions, governmental agencies and other public and private research organizations are also conducting research activities and seeking patent protection and may commercialize products on their own or through joint ventures. Several of these organizations are currently conducting physician sponsored preclinical and early clinical studies of neurotrophic factor gene therapy and protein therapy applications for Parkinson’s disease.
Weighted avg. shares outstanding as of 12/31/13:
is 450,931,510
Product development info. from 10-K:
Wolfram Syndrome
Wolfram syndrome, also called DIDMOAD (Diabetes Insipidus, Diabetes Mellitus, Optic Atrophy, and Deafness), is a rare genetic disorder, causing diabetes mellitus, optic atrophy, and deafness as well as various other possible disorders. It was first described in four siblings in 1938 by Dr. Don J. Wolfram, M.D. The disease affects the brain and central nervous system. It is thought to be caused by both a malfunction of the mitochondria and of myelination, the latter in effect similar to multiple sclerosis. It may have autosomal recessive or dominant or mitochondrial inheritance depending on the genes involved. There are approximately 300 patients worldwide with Wolfram Syndrome. The first symptom is typically diabetes mellitus, which is usually diagnosed around the age of 6. The next symptom to appear is often optic atrophy, the wasting of optic nerves, around the age of 11. The first signs of this are loss of colour vision and peripheral vision. The condition worsens over time, and people with optic atrophy are usually blind within 8 years of the first symptoms. Life expectancy of people suffering from this syndrome is about 30 years. The diabetes of Wolfram patients is typically managed using insulin and other typical diabetes medical. The retinal and otology aspects of Wolfram’s typically go untreated. It is estimated that the market opportunity for Wolfram’s disease exceeds $15Million annually.
DEVELOPMENT PLAN
The Company intends to commercialize LymPro as a Laboratory Developed Test (“LDT”) under the Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments (“CLIA”) in the second half of 2014 in the United States. As part of the commercialization process, the Company is actively evaluating its options with respect to appropriate CLIA labs, as it does not intend to build its own laboratory for this purpose. Thereafter, the Company will evaluate its options with respect to ex-US commercialization of LymPro as well as ultimate FDA approval and marketing of LymPro in the United States. The Company is currently establishing its commercial supply-chain for LymPro’s commercialization.
The Company intends initiate Phase 2 or Phase 3 clinical studies for Eltoprazine in the areas of PD LID and/or Adult ADHD in 2014 based on assessments the Company is currently conducting. The Company is currently sourcing contract manufacturers for clinical-grade material of Eltoprazine and is establishing study designs for the initiation of our next clinical studies. In addition, the Company has sourced the necessary vendors to allow the Company to be in compliance with worldwide regulatory standards.
The Company intends to continue the development of MANF, with a specific view towards orphan indications. The Company will continue the development of MANF in the areas of retinitis pigmentosa, Parkinson’s disease, and Wolfram Syndrome..
Per the 10-k:
To date, data has been published in peer-reviewed publications on LymPro with 160 patients, demonstrating 92% co-positivity and 91% co-negativity with an overall 95% accuracy rating for LymPro.
I would be careful to set specific expectations with Monday news; it has been projected on many occasions and rarely happens....you have to just believe in the the Science and Managements capability to execute. They day to day stuff is irrelevant.
Drug pipeline (in play and recent clinical results):
PEG20 - top WS analysts confirm that thromboembolic event rate issue is temporary and will be lifted (Piper Jaffray and BMO reconfirming encouraging feedback to resolve this issue going forward). Patients badly need Pancreatic treatments that work since there are very few options. So look for the FDA to make every effort to move this compound forward as survival data is very encouraging.
HyQvia - FDA decision (with Baxter) pending by early June (for US); already approved in Europe
MabThera SC - recently Approved in Europe; HALO earns a $10mm milestone payment
Herceptin SC Approved in Europe; HALO earns a $10mm milestone payment
Hylenex - recent clinical diabetes results were very good, in discussions with FDA regarding label change pending and future is very bright here.
HT501 - trial results for cellulite were very good; will start a US trial or sell compound to another interested party.
Enhanze technology - Pfizer has the option to select six possible compounds to use HALO Enhanze technology. Already received an $8mm up front payment.
Notes: Already generating $50mm in Revenue too. Recent stock offering raised $100mm (can buy other Oncology compounds already in trials so cash position is very strong. Lastly, HALO is a huge takeover target as well and the company could become profitable by this time next year or by the end of 2015.
Agree! But what are you surmising exactly? It takes time to ramp up production; you are creating suspicion for what particular reasons? Do you want Baxter to carry a huge inventory without knowing whether they will get approval or not...I dont think so.
HyQvia ramp up will take time...just like Herceptin and MabThera. Baxter has a huge commitment to see HyQvia through and contribute nicely in 2015. The Goldman Sachs analyst was focused on what will contribute in 2014 and I wouldnt disagree that HyQvia will have limited contributions in the 2nd half.
Why would Baxter go through all that effort to refile HyQvia and have no commitment to market it; this is really strange. Perhaps they do not want to publicly disseminate their true intentions.
Thanks Risk: As you can see; there are many here who only want to see through rose colored glasses. I am equally entertained by those who are excited to see the PPS dropping and possibly heading to $.05-$.06 once again (shows the true maturity of this message board group).
What a cop out; just because they hired a new CFO doesnt justify filing the 10k late again (and for a company that wants to Uplist....its really unacceptable). Gerald needs to get some tough skin and run Marc F. out for good (he was getting 1/2 million to do what exactly). Ridiculous!!!
What happens if the issuer fails to file the report by the extended deadline?
The obligation to file annual and quarterly reports originates in Section 13 or 15(d) of the Exchange Act, and the rules promulgated thereunder (see Rule 13a-1 and Rule 13a-13). The SEC has the power to enforce its rules by instituting enforcement actions against a delinquent issuer and/or its officers and directors seeking monetary or other penalties, including revoking the issuer’s registration pursuant to Section 12(j) of the Exchange Act.[2] In the absence of egregious and/or repeated violations, or inferences of fraud, however, the SEC is more likely to rely on the stock exchange(s) to police listed companies. Section 1002(d) of the NYSE Amex's Company Guide, for example, permits the exchange to suspend trading or delist a company’s securities altogether for failure of the company to file its quarterly annual reports. The OTC Bulletin Board has a more specific “three-strikes” rule, FINRA Rule 6530(e), that prohibits the OTCBB from quoting the securities of any issuer that is delinquent in its reporting obligations three times in a 24-month period.
So what is a realistic set up for you? I only share what was communicated to me...dont shoot the messenger.
I personally spoke to Russ Miller about an hour ago. He asked me to email him my question and he would look into the 10-k filing status (I presume he knows the answer; but he cant say publicly). Anyway, he did confirm that the upcoming shareholder meeting is weeks away (which will allow anybody to call in and ask Mgt. questions).
Good point. I have heard on numerous occasions that this company does not PR well. Also, I think being transparent is one of the most powerful weapons a company can choose to employ during difficult times. I called investor relations on the day the halt was disseminated; and nobody bothered to call me back that day or the following week...really disgraceful on their part.
She put up her own money to buy those shares; and she hasnt sold whatsoever. Its just one variable to consider in doing the proper due diligence. Its funny...the PPS was way higher before Herceptin and MabThera were even approved. Hmmmmm.
Xena:
I am going to say and predict your projected bottom is very close to mine. I am picking $6.75 (but part of my analysis is due to the fact that the Jazz Pharma. director bought 100k right around these levels; so I am convinced that the Insiders know best).
I expect capitulations to happen anytime from here; as an Intraday washout out and shakeout will occur before the bottom is reached.
Very small markets; lets focus on the US ...thats where the market potential is HUGE.
So how do you think the next HALO quarterly revenue performance will be that is announced in May ....hopefully, we shall see some growth. Overall, this is a great Long term setup...very diversified pipeline and outstanding Pharma. collaborations should make any downside very limited from here.