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Also came across BGP - Borders Groups, was hella sold off, maybe good for lottery picks. They just installed a new CEO today.
CY - Cypress Semiconductors $5 calls are looking good. $.25 away from in the money, chart looks good.
hehe, after the obama rally into innaguration, I will probly pick up faz and the invesrses to hedge my portfolio.
Other may be to go long energy/natural resources companies, and short the market.... we shall see.
Absolutely. =)
So wait, you are bearish until the election and bullish after?
A fool and his money are soon parted.
Whats the reason behind the trade? And dont tell me because FAZ is at the low...
Why is it not going to keep going down and rebound right here?
Volume actually picked up quite a bit towards the last hour... a ton of buy orders... pushed GM, Ford, CY, GE all to close at high of day on market on close orders.
Volume was running about 800m shares, but ended up 1b.
Expect a gap up monday on on market open orders and a rally looks good into obama inaguration. Only fear is going up to fast.... though hitting dow 14,000 in a few months i would not complain.
I have some GE $17.50 calls, Cypress $5 calls, and AUY $9... all were lottery picks, and hoping they are in the money.
Got your message, thanks. =)
9284 was the high on the left shoulder... then we can go up from there. Biggest thing will be the volume and just getting people feeling more positive.
at the very least, I believe we will have a good size rally AT LEAST until obama is president. After that, it will be the difference, and getting through the time period from when he takes office and hype is drowned, and the time when his policies, tax cuts, investments start taking action.
Then again, the more sustained this positive feeling and year is... the better it will be. Most retail investors are comfortable getting in when the market already moved. With trillions sitting in cash, can be quite explosive to the upside... esp when main stream media starts shouting...
"Dow starts the year with 3 or 4% gain"
In the words of many great investors and traders... the trend is your friend.
When in doubt, also back up one step... so I look at daily charts for hte most part... but to confirm the trend, i take it out and look at it from the weekly chart to confirm.
If daily is bullish, but weekly is bearish, I would avoid, however if I get in, it is short term... longer trends are stronger.
One of hte big ones on my radar and in my holdings is GE, I can day trade it off of charts and make at least 4 or 5 trades daily, both up and down... yet, I would not sell it short here because daily is turning up and weekly has already.
With financials, you have a few big trends here... it is a new year, you have inflows that will come in from funds, pensions, endowments... keep in mind, rich parents just made gifts to kids and charities 3 days ago before year end. These people and institutions will be deploying the money.
Obama factor, and the fact that we are in the new year... pretty dang bullish to me.
Today we are set up very well for upside breakout. Next week can be quite explosive with everyone comes back from holidays.
just because it is at resistance doesnt mean it will not break it.
Too early, if it hits resistance and then starts going down, sure...
personally, as I been saying, you dont want to bet against the market at least until obama is president.
Watch 920 on S&P, top of band, if we break out... may want to cover shorts.
Watch 920 on S&P, top of the band... would be great to break out.
The people who invest in hedge funds would know what they are getting into, or should know.
In order to invest in a hedge fund, our requirements are 1 mil liquid networth, and or income of over $250,000. Person must also need to be aggressive in risk profile, and not have more than 20% in hedge funds typically.
They are told day 1 that there is limited liquidity in or out.
The vast majority of funds already had their outflows, and once again, the people who would want out.... had been out.
As far as madoff... no one knows the effect yet.
Realisticly though, when the average hedge fund is down 20% and s&p down 38%... would be pretty happy.
But side note, i am sure there are some people who sold hedge funds without informing people completely, and there are people who dont read the prospectus.
We need pics to back this up. =)
Very low premiums because vol is dropped. Calm before the storm? Typically low premiums means upside over the past years.
Most hedge funds I deal with have already put in gates to stop the redemptions.
You really have to wait until first week is up, or Obama is inagurated. As I stated before, most of hte pension fund managers, hedge funds, and mutual fund managers are getting cash and will be deploying it the first week of Jan.
Look at the weekly charts on Dow, Nasdaq and S&P... on every selloff, there has been less and less selling, so the question is...
what is going to possibly happen that causes the few money holders with stocks to sell all of theirs now, and keep away the trillions on the sidelines?
We already have the worst drop on record since great depression, 3rd worst drop in history for Dow, and worst drop in history for S&P 500 and Nasdaq...
I wish everyone a VERY happy new year! May 2009 be good to us all, and profitable as well.
Dont party hardy today as 2009 Trading begins on FRIDAY!
hehe, Happy New Years to everyone. 2008 trading is done, may 2009 be profitable to us all.
2008 Year End Current Positions. (options, not including ira's etc holding UIT's)
Spreads/Buy Write
10 F Jan 2010 $2.50 Calls @ $1
-10 F Mar $3 Calls @ $.34 ($.75 of premium paid for)
10 CY Jan $5 Calls @ $.30
20 CY Jan $5 Calls @ $.05 (bought today 12/31/08)
20 AUY Jan $9 Calls @$.25
20 GE Jan $17.50 Calls @.24
10 UYG Jun $7 Calls Used for Spreads but currently uncovered
Quite a bit of year end tax loss selling in the leaders... though good to see a good amount of volume come in at the end and stay up.
inagurated. lol. =)
If sp500 closes above 920 in last few mins... would love it. =)
FAZ? Kidding me? there is contrarian... and then there is crazy. I would hold off on FAZ until the first two weeks of jan are up.
First week of Jan, most institutions, funds, etc are putting money in.
Add the Messiah (Obama) factor...., the charts looking up, and buying FAZ here is like jumping into the highway, and hoping not to get hit in order to score the run.
After Obama is nominated... by all means, would look better for FAZ.
but these swings are crazy
year end sell off. =P now gear up for 2009
hope you banked it. =) those are pretty good premiums. nice job!
holy wow, just saw the chart on that. nice job langy. =) now if only had options on it. =)
UYG Hit $6. =) Now come to $7
http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/CY/tab/4
Fidelity and Janus funds are top holders... if they add money in begining of hte year, can be quite helpful.
Thanks, looks good.
Did find the site I was looking for.
http://www.mffais.com/index.html
Whats the name of the website with the list of the institutional holders? mf something .com... =)
Bought 20 more Jan $5 CY Cypress Semiconductors calls.
Fed now going to use TARP money for assisting companies involved in auto making process.
CY consolidated a bit.
Bought Jan $5 CY Cypress Semiconductors calls.
Fed now going to use TARP money for assisting companies involved in auto making process.
CY consolidated a bit.
Bought Jan $5 CY Cypress Semiconductors calls.
Fed now going to use TARP money for assisting companies involved in auto making process.
CY consolidated a bit.
Buy a $2.50 put.
chart on SLV is as good as AUY... though i dont usually follow it.
I like Gold, I LOVE AUY and Gold miners.
I like the companies more as on the way down, they were beat down a HELL OF A LOT more than the underlying securities.
If planning on Jan rally, most fund managers dont buy the commodities, but rather they buy the stocks.
Think of a natural resources or energy mutual funds, look at holdings.... as an advisor, I have only see 1 or 2 funds that hold the underlying commodity, most invest in the companies themself.
Gold vs silver... i like gold more. If there was broad inflation, all would rise. Gold can be played 3 ways.
1. Recovering economies will use it as a nat resources, ie India.
2. SAFETY - More countries going back to the gold standard?
3. Inflation Hedge - Fixed amount of Gold, the printing presses at the fed is only limited by the amount of ink and toner... but i hear they got a good deal at Staples. =)
bottom of my sig. =)
I mainly like covered calls and calendar spreads, but couldnt resist.
Yes, go to my board, i did a post recently of what all I am holding.
I may even exercise them as I always looked at AUY is a longer term holding.
Even though the calls are short term, I may roll them back a few months or exercise, esp if the weekly/daily charts combined with fundamentals of gold hold up.
If you are looking at the 15 min chart, sure. =) I am looking at this not in the daily as a trade, but rather taking a month long view on this. =)
I am on the bullish side of AUY. Take a look at the daily chart.... then pull out to the weekly chart.
While it may need a boost over $8, and may bounce around between $7 and $8, still very bullish.
Keep in mind, Jan effect, pensions and money markets will be dumping money into the market. People want safety of gold. voila.