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I thought that US crude oil production was heading downwards. I was wrong. OPEC’s World Oil Outlook estimates US oil production will rise from 11.5 mb/day in 2020, to 14.8 mb/day in 2026 with tight oil output peaking at 15.2 mb/day in the late 2020’s. Still reaching 13.3 mb/day in 2045.
Is this what is motivating Mr. Kyte?
A reasonable thought pappythorn1. I know there’s no dictionary definition of ‘regular’ that gives a specific no. days but Dec 9th, Jan 3rd., Jan 9th and Jan 24th would indicate that if recent history is our guide that ‘regular’ is in need of being exercised.
Dear Long and Strong QSEP Investors,
2019 has been a year of mixed emotions: I was expecting that we would have had announced how the AOT had performed ‘live’ on the carefully selected pipeline and that commercialisation had begun.
Whilst it is said that hope springs eternal we are dealing with scientific parameters and not hopeful aspiration.
If 2020 is not the year for full commercialisation then honestly I will be disappointed, but I do believe that our current management team and board of directors are giving us the best shot at success this coming year.
Good wishes for a Healthful New Year to all fellow investors, board members and management.
Thank you As I See It, your posts are always informative. Most appreciated by me and I’m sure others.
Perhaps Zefs1017 one of our fellow shareholders that attend the next AGM could ask why progress reports have not yet been possible.
Dear Faithinthefuture,
Personally I do agree with Smile’s analysis. I cannot see Dr. Bunting making these continued investments from his position of privileged information just to somehow mislead the rest of us shareholders. My conclusion is that Dr. Bunting’s investment decisions are indeed rational, with the expectation of a return commensurate with risk levels.
Let me turn to QSEP Business Update dated August 15th, 2019:
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Based on our current procurement and assembly schedule, the new grid pack assembly and new power supply should be installed and ready for testing in the fourth quarter of this year.
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That covers a 3 months period. The expectant amongst will read this as news in October. The latest should be sometime in December before closing for seasonal holidays.
I try and put myself in Jason Lane’s position: I would want the next Update to be an explanation of how well the new Rasmussen value-engineered AOT grid pack has been delivering meaningful data on AOT performance, and the implications for sales.
Amen to their medical fight.
That’s what I am expecting.
To zerosum per your comment:
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I do think AOT specs will become standardized per oil type, and that way there will be less adjustments needed with things like power. I'm very encouraged by the update.
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Perhaps they are considering a modular system for the power pack, according to the oil types and their different viscosities.
Yes faithinthefuture I checked their investor notification from July 3rd when Jason Lane said:
“In terms of our timeline going forward, we expect to be back up and fully running in approximately 4-6 weeks, as we await repairs to be completed on the power supplies."
We’re already past the 4 weeks mark, so if it is a total of 6 weeks plus say 2 weeks of tests we could expect meaningful data by the end of August.
I can wait patiently until then but would still appreciate knowing what went wrong within commercial confidence limits.
I’m long and strong!
Quite. They said 4-6 weeks to install the faulty part, that was 4 weeks ago. Let’s be patient a little bit longer.
However I would still welcome an explanation of what went wrong to the faulty electrical installation, providing it doesn’t compromise QSEP commercially.
Your post suggests what I have learnt to understand from Jason Lane, what he has been about from the start of his tenure, 2+ years ago: he plans and delivers, but more like the tortoise than the hare.
If this is his approach then I think you are right alkalinesolution1. This will be no “We made it!” moment as he would not have undertaken the $0.5 million investment without knowing the expected outcome. Rather QSEP will report the results in different scenarios with an indication of the next steps to be taken with the demonstration partner, consolidating usage of the AOT on this first pipeline.
Hi Alkaline maybe my take is wishful thinking but the primary objective of the test is not to boost the share price, though hopefully this will be a welcome side effect. The main objective is to establish the credentials of the AOT on a midstream pipeline and display results equal or similar to previous laboratory tests leading to product commercialisation.
With this in mind I trust the test results will be released as soon as Lane and co. are completely sure of their veracity and when they have completed testing under an initial set of prescribed circumstances.
I’m from Ireland and I have no problem quoting an old adage of “To be sure, to be sure.” They cannot afford for there to be any doubt surrounding the test results announcement.
Professor of Physics, Dept. Of Physics, Temple University
https://phys.cst.temple.edu/rongjia-tao.html
Thanks Smile for the reminder. It is encouraging to hear again that we should see meaningful progress in 2019 towards new business beyond the demonstration unit.
The value of the demo unit was reinforced countless times in that finally QSEP will have AOT data that it can talk about.
Many thanks AISI for your summary of the AGM; it was very encouraging.
Please listen to this Bloomberg clip. More oil pipeline is desperately needed in the Permian Basin.
Texas Drillers Find Too Few Railcars for All Their Oil and Sand
https://assets.bwbx.io/s3/readings/P883B56K50XS1525612885582.mp3
This NYT article quotes McKinsey who is estimating that through activities like using big data to analyze the performance of various production platforms, oil companies can improve their profits by up to $11 per barrel, or $300 billion a year by 2025.
QSEP is part of this wave of products that will support these $11 / barrel savings. Read on ........
Oil Firms Learn to Move an Ancient Product With New-Age Tech
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/14/business/energy-environment/oil-firms-learn-to-move-an-ancient-product-with-new-age-tech.html
Faithinthefuture your example of fitting an AOT to a private car as part of the business plan logic is not analogous to fitting the AOT to a pipeline. Simply the reason of capital cost motivates QSEP to offer this service..... and the opportunity to maximise profit.
Thank you rufus for your encouragement as we patiently await for our new CEO and board to begin delivery of AOT revenues.
Is the 8k worrying!
In the short-term Gary Buchler has to be a v productive addition to the BOD, advancing the potential for a KM order. But could it also indicate KM's longer term, even medium term, intention to buy us out.
I am a modest shareholder but wish to retain at least a third of my shares for the long term.
Zerosnoop another energy company committed to reducing its carbon footprint is Royal Dutch Shell. See the following article, which emphasises "Shell also said that 10% of directors’ bonuses would be tied to how well it manages greenhouse gas emissions in refining, chemical and upstream operations."
Shell sells oil sands assets as boss warns on clean energy challenge
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/10/shell-sells-canadian-oil-sands-as-boss-warns-of-losing-public-support?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
This is another opportunity for the variously configured AOT.
You make Gregg sound as if he is operating in a vacuum. We all know that he interacts with powerful potential customers who are also pushing their due diligence procedures in-line with their company protocols.
Gregg can only go as fast as they wish to move and the fact that at least two companies are still in deep dialogue speaks multitudes for our technology and that they are not dealing with some sort of idiot, which Gregg clearly is not.
As FML2013 noted Gregg is working for the biggest payday of his life.
By all means be frustrated with the slow pace of developments and the strictures imposed by the NDAs but please do not doubt his motivation to conclude deals
FML2013 I think you answered your own point. Yes you cannot disconnect Gregg's performance from that of the pps. He knows that as well.
But I doubt that it is the share price that is motivating him to get out of bed in the morning. Rather it is his understanding of the technologies owned by QSEP and his belief that just as soon as he lands the first order he is on the road to becoming rich.
FML2013 you can assert that you're right and you could well be spot on. The facts of the matter are that we have a winning proposition which once it is converted to sales the ignominy of Bigger's 'failure' to land a sale todate will be forgotten.
I personally would be hard pressed to recommend his dismissal as chairman and who's to say he would quietly accede to a demotion to ops chief. Let's stick with the chairman we know and let's double down on our belief in the technology.
I wonder is the pps tick upwards temporary or signs of volumes to come?
Whacky I'd like to concur with you.
Bigger's ability to control the pace of progression towards a contract is dictated by the client. All he can continue to do is to respond to their every request and do his utmost to continue diversifying the company's potential client base.
Hey I'm a frustrated long too but loose talk of getting rid of Bigger is unnecessary and only reflects fellow longs jitters as the timeframe for conversion continues to be stretched.
Zeroedin is it possible that some answers to open questions Could fall under the NDA. Gregg would have to answer stating "Unable to answer because it falls under our various NDA's" which could provide a negative perspective for potential investors.
The question Alkaline that we have to ask ourselves is why is Dr. Tao making this announcement today? Is it possible that this could bring pressure to bear on TransCanada in Bigger's negotiations.
Reading this article from Bloomberg
http://bloom.bg/1yzJtn6
makes it clear that global financial forces are taking seriously the +2 degrees centigrade global warming threshold.
In my view this means that STWA must promote the AOT using the energy saving - green house gas (GHG) reduction- as its primary marketing message.
I understand that this was the primary motivation for many of STWA's original investors. In my opinion environmental considerations should be the primary reason today for midstream and upstream oil companies to purchase as in the future every barrel of oil will come under scrutiny for its GHG footprint.
Alkalinesolution1 could this mean TRP acquiring ZERO or just the technology that applies to the movement of oil through midstream pipelines. If they did want to acquire this technology it must be worth several usd billions to them. I base this on the fact - established we hope by TRP - that their pipelines could move 10-15 percent more oil with minimal investment in the hundreds is usd millions.
1301steps
Alkalinesolution1 you absolutely did remember it.
In the 27 May announcement of first revenues Bjorn Simundson is quoted referring to "the forthcoming testing of our new upstream products beginning this summer".
I share your excitement at the prospect of being able to sell into this market segment, with shorter lead times and a much larger market. Also after handling the extreme caution of TRP it will be good to deal with the 'wildcatter' clients who know that technology advances keep them in business.
Wacky thank you for that balanced assessment of why STWA's management could and should do more with the PR mechanism to lift shareholder spirits and the pps.
There is no need for spin just a cool presentation of the facts in a series of well written, cogent PR reports setting out all of the current achievements of the AOT, including the Joules patents and upstream applications.
As a patient shareholder I had hoped for some restoration of the pps by this date. I will hold to the long strategy but it does test my and other family members patience to the extreme.
Tedco IMO our management should not steer this ship with such seemingly oblivious disregard for the share price.
STWA’s 8k news this week has encouraged the Longs and I hope is allowing a more strategic frame of mind to prevail. I am particularly interested to start thinking in terms of STWA having a suite of products and would like to know more about the new upstream product testing that was promised would be starting this summer.
I have also been looking at the expectations for further technological developments as a follow-on from fracking and horizontal drilling. I ask readers to consider the view that in-situ drilling technology is the future for hydrocarbon recovery, where tar sands and oil shale are concerned.
In-situ drilling is explained as follows:
In situ drilling has a much smaller footprint because it can cluster many wells on one pad so it takes up much less space. Drillers can hit an underground target the size of a dime from a thousand meters away without any additional surface disturbance.
In situ recovery also impacts water less than mining. Recycling of water can be very high through the use of closed systems for steam generation. (Mining by contrast needs between two and four barrels of fresh water for every barrel of oil generated.)
A downside is that in situ projects require a lot of energy to heat the water to soften the thick oil before it can be drawn to the surface. The energy comes from burning natural gas, which, of course, generates unwanted greenhouse gases (GHGs).
Quoted from: http://osqar.suncor.com/2010/11/in-situ-oil-sands-minings-hotter-younger-sibling.html
Could it be that STWA’s Joule Heating product is being downplayed because of the national security implications of being able to efficiently deliver heat for in-situ drilling to disturb the trapped oil and gas.
Any thoughts please?
I share two articles:
http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monographs/2005/RAND_MG414.pdf
Read: Thermally Conductive In-Situ Conversion.
http://canaryusa.com/wp-content/plugins/codecanyon-3408117-word-pressoffice/ptp_stamp.php?id=1130&parentid=&ptp_type=r
Read: In-situ mining heats the shale while still in the ground
Read: 47,000 miles of new and expanded US pipelines by 2025
You're right shl468 the March 31st 10-Q records that "In 2014, the Company began commercial development of a suite of products based around the new electrical heat system and plans to begin field-testing with commercial entities in the third quarter of 2014."
This could be altogether encouraging as the mass market for the viscosity reduction technology is upstream, at the well head/underground, with clients that are depending on new technology to get shale oil out of the ground.
The approach reported as being employed by Shell sounds very similar to STWA's viscosity reduction technology. Technology which has already be applied to TransCanada's crude oil midstream pipeline.
All of this excoriation of Greg Bigger overlooks the fact that we have a ground breaking technology which can be applied in multiple applications. The economist magazine article
http://www.economist.com/news/business/21605928-second-shale-revolution-may-be-coming-squeezing-out-yet-more-oil-flaming-rocks
includes this reference:
"Some of the world’s biggest energy firms have also experimented with mining and processing oil shale, only to give up, after finding that it took so much energy that the sums did not add up. However, Shell says it is making progress with a new method it is trying, also in Jordan, in which the shale is heated underground with an electric current to extract the oil."
Could this be another possible application of STWA's AOT technology?
Thanks very much for clarification. Appreciated. Will view the enlarged photo. Thanks again. Were you able to work out the background sound?
321zero thank you for updating us board members which personally I highly appreciate.
But even on a larger screen I had difficultly making out the AOL installation. Was it the machinery to the left of your video shot?
I conclude that there's no point my saying I can see it if I cannot. Thanks
zerospec I have no idea if NDA prevents directors from buying shares. I agree a Form 4 would encourage more existing and new shareholders to buy and support the pps.