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Taderfan, from Qs weren't NIs 9M, + 28M + 31M for 68M versus the 78M in the press release?
That questioner was wrong. The guidance for Q4 is $34M not $24M.
At 102 - 104 that is only $34M for Q4 versus the $31.1 for Q3. We know that the added busses in Late Sept. and the airport buses will bust that number. $110M is more likely for 2010.
Anxious for the short interest levels data on Tuesday. If many shorts did cover some prior I think they are so pissed that they jumped in again in order to double up and catch up. Oops! Not a good plan. The big drops in am were characteristic of prior short attacks.
Think they are waiting for poor earnings results (what ever that is) and disappointment over no dividend. They won't get the former but maybe the later. However, soon after the earnings the investment firms and IBD will start providing analysis and suport. Firms will be picking up more shares which I think they have already been doing lately in anticipation of good earnings.
Remember, the BofA/Merrill Lynch Conference in China is going on today. Everytime I see spikes of buying I imagine someone at their Blackberry buying because of 'gems' of information that was just spoken.
JADA - Remains to be seen. It has been their stated goal for three years to vertically integrate. Even though they had their funds set aside for an acqusition returned to them they still have the goal on the web site as well as just market awareness. See below:
From their site:
"Jade Market in China
Benefiting from JST's attractively priced Exclusive Distribution Right Agreement with XiKai and the unique characterists of its SheTai Jade, Jade Art Group will carry out acquisitions and mergers to become a vertically integrated supplier of jade and jade-carved artwork in China. Simultaneously, Jade Art Group is looking for cooperation with powerful industry players and jade store-owners in China, to promote its market awareness and take advantage of the ever-increasing demand in China's jade industry."
JADA - Concur. It's the CEO. Note he has the same tie as in the JADA web site. It seems likely that they have a retail operation now, however it seems that they should need to announce it. Oh hell, those pesky things like 8Ks and SEC requirements. Here in Mongolia we are just too busy to do all that paperwork.
All green - People have FOUND China -
That sounds like a great speculation -
Yes volume - With very little daytrading showing up, I suspect short covering. After all, the float is unimportant to the false naked short shares. Oh well, next Tues. we can see the remaining short levels.
8th, earnings - AH 9th, short status -
$18 - Whoed ah thunk it -
Yes, China exist - What I really like is the lack of trading connection of our stocks and the DOW. It's like they are finally being recognized as independent enitites, which they are.
This is short squeeze - We give up.
Will see if it's daily updated by checking it tonight.
Ratos' concern over future earnings is to some degree correct. But competition hasn't done anything yet, earnings are growing (Q3 & Q4 I think will prove no short term problems), acqusitions are possible, buisness expansion is likely (magazine), more bus contracts possible (only 35,000 of the China total of 85,000 on contract and more airports possible), and just maybe they do it better than others. So they have a 'deal' with the Transport Ministry. It's China isn't it.
Besides concerns over 2012 earnings are not in my gunsight right now. I don't expect to own any after 2012 or earlier. Right now I'm waiting for the squeeze, near term SEC report proof of earning growth, major analyst rankings, added bus contracts, possible dividend confirmation, ect., ect., etc. And also $30 PPS.
Think they can report if they like but think they will only report when required in the 10Q. However, we won't know much. They only announced the buyback on Sept. 16, likely didn't start buying until late Sept., and the 10Q will report will only cover several days.
Agree, some shorting. It cost little to short leagalty, nothing to naked short, and you don't pay until you hit the dead end. Can't wait for the short report next Tuesday. I wonder if the SEC will notice that there might be some naked shorting going on here when the short level exceeds the float. Probably not.
Exactly right. Who really cares about 2014. Not a one of those posters really think they will own any CCME beyond mid-2011. Of course long range perceptions affect the near term stock price, but we are all really in for the 'squeeze' and the Q3 & Q4 earnings.
CCME Real VAlue -
Lots of CCME valuation discussion on the CGS board this evening. One good point was by Fernando on the earnout shares.
"The GH f.d. numbers are completely wrong. The 7M earn-out shares for 2010 won't be awarded till mid 2011 and will only hit the 2011 EPS... So the Q4 number they use is very far off.
-Fernando "
In my post 5822 I applied the 7M earnout shares for 2010 performance in my calculations. Yes, that is in advance of the actual application. But in conservative terms, that is one thing hanging over the stock in the minds of investors. Regardless, the estimates still justify a price, IMHO, of $30.
CCME real value -
The one thing we have in the bank here is the real value of the company. Using both the cash discount method for a PE or a straight calculation we get the following:
Earnings:
Q1 9M
Q2 28M
Q3 est. 30m (Feranado post 55354) 33M (me)
Q4 est. 34m (Fernando) 40m (me)
2010 earnings 82-85M (company est.), 101M (Ferando), 110M (me)
2010 earnings average = 98M
Cash:
Q2 139M (25M of 28M Q2 earnings added to cash in Q2)
Likely cash adds in Q3 & Q4 - est. 50% of earnings
50% of 48M (company), or 64M (Fernando), or 73M (me)
I’ll use the average - 50% or 62M = 31M cash add for 2010 for 170M end of year
Using the cash discount method for a PE, a share price of $30, and a share count of 40M after earnout -
EPS = 98M (avg.) / 40 = 2.45
( 30 - 170/40 ) / 2.45 = 25.75 / 2.45 = 10.5
Using straight PE calculation -
EPS = 2.45
30 / 2.45 = 12.2
The cash discount seems the most correct way to evaluate the company. Using the earnout shares in my opinion is also appropriate for the start of 2011. With competitors having PE ratios of 10-15 and growth not coming close to CCME, and if the remainder of 2010 is as estimated, how can CCME not be worth $30. This is of course everyone recoginizes it based on the the next 10Q and 10K. 2011 will bring another earnout dilution of 17% but revenue growth, acqusitions, or business expansion will likely overwhelm that and lead to a higher valuations.
IMHO
Alwyas like the last posted trade of the day. Yesterday a buy of ~ 4,000 shares. Today 31,586. Strange.
Don't know how much of the .44M shorts were covered in the last run, but it seems that the market by itself isn't going to take down CCME further, and that the shorts either don't have the ammunition to do it, or aren't inclined to play any more. Yes, they are dead.
Seems everyone was waiting for the shorts early morning hit. When it diddn't come, here we go up.
#3, then Q3, then #1, then #2
The shorts are hitting it all day. Waiting for the reality of this to hit when the numbers come out next week.
On CGS Joenatural agrees. Shorts don't seem to know when to stop. One good thing, legal or illegal shorting, they all need to be covered and the brockers will do it even if the shorters don't or they have previously committed suicide.
Can understand the pullback on the part of traders, but it sure looks like the shorts are in here heavy also. As there ar likely few shares available, the shorting is naked. Can't wait for the short report next Tues. Suspect they are still hanging it all out.
Got some Nov. 20 calls at 0.40 just in case.
I that case - 'Never Mind' -
CCME - and finra and 'riskless transactions' -
Does that mean they are likely dominated by non-retail investors but market makers themselves? If so, then we will just wait until next Tuesday.
CCME - We all want to know the short status -
I don't know how to get daily short status. Likely some way by subscription. But for those shares traded through finra, they post daily short adds. This in only a portion of total daily volume however (about half). I have gone back to 1 Oct., just after the last bi-weekly report, and added from their 11 daily data reports for CCME. You can look at Fridays numbers here:
http://regsho.finra.org/FNSQshvol20101015.txt
Have compared the finra adds and volume totals to the actual total volume in the last 11 days (~ 9.6M shares). Then proportionally increased the finra adds to represent possible total market adds. This assumes other market groups had the same proportion of shorts to volume.
CCME new finra shorts and total share vol. = 1.471M / 4.339M
Total CCME shares since 9/30 = ~ 9.650M
Likely total market new shorts since 9/30 = 3.271M (calculated)
They are still adding.
Question is how many did they cover? Don't know. But it looks like to me there is likely still a heavy short level. Friday they added 305,142 just under finra trades of 1.144M of the market total of 3.264M.
Recent bi-weekly total shorts.
CCME 9.7M float
8/31 2,992K short
9/5 3,311K
9/30 4,443K
Seems they never give up. Draw your own conclusions but it seems there is still likely a high short level. But in their agressivness, they might have covered their prior shorts (big losses) and are now ready to get back at that damn CCME by shorting at a higher level and waiting for the short squeeze (which they caused) to collapse in the future. Seems they never give up.
Let's kill them twice.
No membership here, but see my post 5552 for an estimate based on available daily information.
Short Status -
I don't know how to get daily short status. Likely some way by subscription. But for those shares traded through finra, they post daily short adds. This in only a portion of total daily volume however. I have gone back to 1 Oct., just after the last bi-weekly report, and added their data for CCME. You can look at todays numbers here:
http://regsho.finra.org/FNSQshvol20101015.txt
Have compared the finra adds and volume totals to the actual total volume in the last 11 days (~ 9.6M shares). Then proportionally increased the finra adds to represent total market adds. This assumes other market makers had the same proportion of shorts to volume.
CCME new finra shorts and total share vol. = 1.471M / 4.339M
Total CCME shares since 9/30 = ~ 9.650M
Likely total market new shorts since 9/30 = 3.271M (calculated)
They are still adding. Question is how many did they cover? Don't know. But it looks like to me there is likely still a heavy short level. Today they added .305M just under finra trades of 1.144M of the market total of 3.264M.
Recent bi-weekly total shorts.
CCME 9.7M float
8/31 2,992K short
9/5 3,311K
9/30 4,443K
Draw your own conclusions but it seems there is still a high short level. But in their agressivness, they might have covered their prior shorts (big losses) and are now ready to get back at that damn CCME from shorting at a higher level and waiting for the short squeeze (which they caused) to collapse in the future. Seems they never give up. Let's kill them twice.
Good rewrite - Never liked it before -
CCME - Jim will never come around.
Hope getting cut off isn't on the air.
Daytraders getting out before the weekend when they should be getting in.
The other good thing -
All the other CGS stocks are also unknown.
DOW red, China Small Cap. green -
Still waiting for major media to note this. Wonder why GDP growth of 9% suppots gains and GDP growth of 2% doesn't? Seems that all of those TV financial experts might be able to figure this out or at least comment on it while they scratch their heads.