Good news and price move in the past week. The biggest challenge IPIX has is a lack of cash on the balance sheet. The Aspire deal gives Leo a bit of breathing room on that front. And even more room as long as a deal comes through. Leo basically has telegraphed what the terms will be via a PR and the filing.

We can safely assume a deal from OM will be at least 10M upfront and it's hopeful that the partner will cover all or part of a PhIII trial costs. I'm guessing a PIII will run 15-30M so the deal commitment could be as large as 40-50M (a significant amount). It will also be interesting to see what the back end royalties are. Given IPIX's condition (beggars can't be choosers), I think IPIX will see single digits to start and maybe going into the mid-teens as revenues ramp. It's all funny money at this point but it would allow analysts to start to generate projections and get some real interest from institutions.

Make no mistake, if a deal like this comes to fruition, IPIX will soar. In one fail swoop, IPIX will add significant capital to the BS which will allow it to operate for at least 12-18 months, get a drug into PIII trials with a partner who is burdening a lot of the risk which also = 3rd party verification. As others have mentioned OM is a big market and if B-OM continues to show efficacy, IPIX will have a revenue generating drug within 2-3 years.

Best of all, we all have timeline to look to and will know if Leo is legitimate or making up stories. I personally don't think Aspire would agree to put more money into the company without some certainty that a deal is in the works.

I'm looking forward to having my position turn green in the near future.

I think that gives us a pretty tight timeline for Leo. If I'm reading the tea leaves right they have something that should close by Sept 30th but needed cushion now. If true, it could be a new day for IPIX shareholders.

I think this is a new deal and if Leo has something in the wings then the deal is a good one. Dilution is part of the game with any startup. I have to assume Leo felt pretty good about the milestone payments and so did Aspire or they would not have ponied up the funds. No way does Aspire do this deal if they think they will have a problem liquidating their newly acquired stock, at a price higher than what they paid. Given the number of shares, they wouldn't be able to do it unless something gave them reason to believe that 1) volume will be increasing and 2) at a higher price than .25/share.

This looks like a lifeline to a deal. At least that's what my confirmation bias says :)

Good times ahead. If a deal is announced we're going to shoot higher.

Based on my calculations the company only has 3-6 months left of operating cash on hand. Aspire isn't going to be able to keep IPIX afloat at this share price. The risk is the company runs out of money just like Polymedix did. That's where I see the most risk and I do think it is a very real risk.

At this point, I would have thought a deal would be done but my timing has been off for four years. I remain very confident in the science and am hoping for a break in IPIX's direction. I have faith (perhaps misguided) that IPIX can make it happen, it's important for both patients and my pocket, I have a lot of chips on the table.

I feel very strongly and still believe the story changes with one deal. IPIX just need 3rd party verification that it is legitimate and the science is real. Once that happens others in the market to take note. If a deal doesn't happen then, then prospects don't look good. I wish I was a fly in Leo's office.

AS NR mentioned any deal that get the balance sheet some cash and pays for a PIII is a big win. Crossing every finger I have :)

I just picked up north of 60k share in the .37-.40 cent range. Hoping for good news at some point. Lots of risk at this stage. The balance sheet is a real concern but the science is still as strong as ever. Hoping to average down given my current holding but it will take a lot of volume to get me close to the current strike price but I'm doing my part bit by bit.

I still hold to my projection that we’ll see a deal in the near term for one of the compounds. The rub is that deals take a lot of time but the important thing is that one happens.

When a deal comes through, imagine the response of the market when the balance sheet is improved by 10-100M (based on the compound, indication, and market/exclusively) and IPIX now has the ability to run additional trials for purisol, brilaciden and kevetrin. Analysis and other BP will take note and the days of fighting the FUD on the OTC BB will be over. There will be other challenges but they will be at a much larger scale.

The world for IPIX changes the day the first deal is announced. I think we're only weeks away and at longest a few months, for that to happen.

This is really strong data. I'm still long and just don't have much to say other than bio-tech investing takes a lot of patience and a very strong stomach.

I'm still confident a deal will be had and that will make all the difference for this company. Looking forward to the day when my position is back to green :)

I don’t believe leo will be unreasonable but he certainly won’t give an asset away. He’s got the most to win and lose with IPIX and he’s not a fool.

My personal thought is that once you have a deal in place everyone else who is evaluating any of the products will redouble their efforts to come to a decision. They may still pass but once one group has said yes, it makes it easier for others to say yes as well.

Imagine your job in head of M&A for a certain BP. You're looking at lots of deals and all of a sudden one of the compounds you're looking at it partnered (maybe for a different indication or in a smaller market (EU, Asia, etc), you'd immediately get your A team together and talk about what your competitors knew that you didn't. In many venture deals once the company has a term sheet more term sheets follow but getting the first terms sheet often takes the most time and is the hardest to come by.

Again IMO, once once deal comes in, there will be multiple deals that follow. I would expect the share price to spike based on the financial terms of the deal and LTV of the potential royalty steams. I'd love to the IPIX's EV reach 1B when the first deals are announced or ~$5-$6/share fully diluted.

I’ve not always been a fan of Leo’s, he’s made many significant mistakes and in summation has allowed the FUD spreaders to own the narrative. That all changes once he gets a deal. Financially and moving the products forward he’s done a fantastic job but he certainly isn’t wining over the hearts and minds of Wall Street. Lucky for us Art has the technical skills necessary to get the ball over the goal line. T-90 days...

For B-OM, 5-10M upfront 20-40M if approved and 20-35% royalty (maybe materially more if this was a worldwide license and not just regional). Terms aren't as good for a first deal for any company. Leo needs capital and 3rd party verification. Once a first deal is inked Leo and Art can afford to play hardball for future indications.

Tide is about to turn. OM is a big market with not a lot of good options. We'll have a deal within 90 days.

There will be a deal for B-OM. it has the shortest path to approval. My hope is 30 days, probably 60-90. Once one deal hits, others will follow. nothing like the potential of losing out to get people to move quickly.

nope. I limited my buy to .75

I think some on the board are missing the boat on this. The fact that B was able to stop some patients from getting OM and delaying those that did by 10-14 days... is a HUGE win. The administration was nothing more than a swish and spit. Imagine the results once the product is compounded to coat the mucosal lining and stay there for any prolonged amount of time.

Brilacidin is a significant drug. Just look at the multiple indications it is working on (OM, UC, ABSSSI). It has not failed one trial. Add to that K and P and we have a significant opportunity. Once Leo gets 3rd party verification, with capital to work with the narrative changes. I don't care if it's a 5M or 30M upfront deal, I just want the validation and some relief to the Balance Sheet.

I did my part, just added 50k shares at the .75 ask :)

I expect a partner and cash on the balance sheet in 60-90 days. I can't believe I'm buying at a 25% discount to my initial buys 5 years ago.

These results from B-OM will result in a deal. Very good news for longs and those suffering from OM. The next two to three months will have Leo and team busy finalizing the terms but make no mistake, the tide has turned. Money and a partnership will come in short order.

Just a gut feel given the number of indications and compounds and status of the trials. I wouldn’t be surprised if a random deal materializes

Solid point. I’ve been too aggressive on my IPIX projections for years so you’re right to give a longer timeline.

It’s still shocking to me that five years into this company I could buy shares for less than a buck. At some point that will seem stupidly cheap. Kinda like a lot of us non-believers are ruing the day we passed on bitcoin.

With the B-OM top line results in, I have a strong feeling we'll see a deal within 30-60 days. It's just the terms and details that are being hammered out. I wouldn't be surprised as well to see an additional deal hit within the same time period. It's going to be a fun Q1! Stay long and strong!

That is one of the problems with the OTC stocks. They are prone to massive swings due to the lack of institutional buyers. IPIX is making real progress and as soon as a deal or two are inked, the investment profile will change significantly.

I consider this just another day in the IPIX opera. It certainly is clear who the traders are. The mood swings are epic. The lack of credible discourse is why I tend to stay quiet for long periods, I get tired of the inane chatter.

IPIX will make real money for investors at some point, it's the timing that is hard to know. Great results today, no matter what the traders do.

It did run from .70-1.17 in a week. This is a classic sell the news. It doesn't matter what the traders do for long term holders. Real value has been created by this trial. Anyone who has dry powder will make money buying at these levels.

No ABSSSI would not have been worth the 30M+ dollar price tag for the PIII. IPIX has been able to move forward in trials with three different products and multiple indications with that money. It is a classic mitigation of risk play. This course takes longer but the value of the company will be higher in the long run. It will prove to be the right move.

I don't actively trade anymore so I'm happy to sit on a long term play those in the trading game might prefer a shorter horizon. To each their own...

Very solid top line results and I'll be fascinated to see the secondary indications which could be even more impressive! This will lead to a partnership and breakthrough status. It's amazing what IPIX has done with the Brilacidin platform. Three trials and three successes. Folks, Brilacidin is the real deal and will result in a real wealth maker for those who are involved.

I'm never sure how the market will react but this is real progress and pharama executives who are in the oncology world will take note.

What a great day for Leo/team, IPIX holders, and OM sufferers. Hope is on the horizon.

Fair point on the P comparison. That said, I like people to understand that the human body is exquisitely complicated and the data from an n of 10 rarely holds when the n increases significantly.

I think we have the potential of strong results in both P and B-OM, I'm just not banking on either being out of the park home-runs. The company is too young to know exactly how and what conditions are best addresses and via what delivery means. Give the company five to ten more years of experience and I think IPIX is running dozens of trials to nail down those issues. That's when we might see B achieving Humira type results, across multiple conditions (if B really is as good as it appears to be).

As for P, I'd be okay with 20% PASI 75 on P and over the moon with anything north of 30% PASI 75. I even think a 15% PASI 75 could be of real value. This is an oral product with a proven, safe track record.

If B-OM is half as effective as what it showed earlier, it's a huge drug. I just don't want to have unrealistic expectations because in the end, if it works to any degree, the stock price will be significantly higher than it is now and my incredibly over-sized position will be back to green!

I hope you're right on the Prurisol front. The only people who have a gut feel, are those looking at the raw data. But my experience has been that Leo has never been known to play his cards close to the vest. The fact that he hasn't been dropping hints about Prurisol tells me a lot about how the trail is going . Not that it's been a bust but it's certainly not a homerun (again just my opinion).

To reiterate, I'm reading the first cuts of the Prurisol data are murky and they really won't know the results until all the data is gathered and analyzed. Again, a 10-15% separation from placebo for Pruisol would be the same as what Otezla had and that's a multi-billion dollar drug.

My whole point is that we don't need to hit home-runs at every at bat... just get on base consistently and the multi-million dollar contracts will come flowing in. Who is more valuable to a team, a guy who bats .350 or a guy who crushes it every now and then? I'll take the .350 batter over a home-run hitter any day of the week.

I don't think there is any way the results of a larger trial will be better than interim data (that bar is crazy high). All we need is a statistically meaningful difference from the placebo arm. That will mean success and a bright future for the company.

The good news is that we're probably less than a week away from getting the data.

If we see the same results as the interim, it would be an absolute moon shot result. And in my opinion, there is almost no way the numbers hold, to those levels, in a larger data set. I've always learned to temper my expectations in life and even more so in bio-tech investing. But, the great thing with B-OM is that there is no current effective treatment (bad for patients good for IPIX's new offering).

Overcoming the placebo effect is hard (look at the silence around Prurisol - had the numbers been coming in crazy good, we'd have heard rumblings). Take Otezla, there was a lot of board chatter that talked about how narrowly Otezla beat the placebo (like 10-15% or so if I remember correctly) but look at the revenues it's generated. I think the same can happen for B-OM.

We don't need to hit a grand-slam for this to be worth significant $$$. We just need it to work in a statistically meaningful way. As long as we get a decent spread from the placebo arm, we're golden.

Good to see my position is getting closer to green :)

I think we'll see the top line release on Monday or Tuesday of next week. I'm looking for a solid results. I'm not expecting the numbers to be the same as the initial data from this summer. If we see any meaningful spread between the placebo arm and the active arm it should result in the company's first partnership and a floor to the stock price.

It's critical to remember that IPIX is going after prevention of OM not just duration. This is a big market and if a swish and spit solution is proven to work the uptake will be impressive. Once approved, who knows what other off label indications could be treated and I wouldn't be supprised if this didn't turn into a 1+B/yr revenue drug.

I think we're very close to 3rd party verification that the technology is real and partnership funds will follow which will reduce pressure on the BS.

Looking forward to solid results early next week!

Fair question. My timing is usually too aggressive but but I'm feeling pretty good about some announcements in the near future. I certainly could be wrong but I'm putting a lot of money on the table I'm right.
I consider IPIX stock like a long term call (LEAPS), I don't have time decay, only a bit of dilution as Leo funds. Had IPIX been private when I made my first investment five years ago, I'd probably be looking at a dilution of at least 50% if not 70%+. I've got the patience to wait as long as it takes as long as progress is material (which it is IMO).

I think a 100x return is a possibility but it will take time. We're about 10 years into IPIX's development and this is usually when you see big jumps in valuation which is inline with other heavily technology based companies. That timeline is getting shorter but it is pretty consistent in the VC world.

Most investors don't have the patients to wait that long and so very few should be investing in biotech. I think we'll see 1-3 deals in the next 90ish days which will take us to 1-2B in MC then if we get a moon-shot home run from K, P or additional indications of B then we may get a 100x return within 1-2 more years. I'll be happy with a 10x and over the moon with a 100x.

And potentially in different countries

Yes, multiple deals on separate indications.

Another November and still my hopes are high. I’m five years into this play and I’m more positive now than ever before. As such, I fully expect a deal by year end and think once we have one inked more will come in short order.

Based on reading the tea leaves my money is on Brilacidin stealing the show and moving the needle. P and K are still wild cards but B alone will get us a 10x or more. By this time next year I’m hoping for a 1-2B market value and multiple partnerships. Those partnerships will bring an influx of cash which will allow for additional R&D and more upside. We’re really close imho to a real move.

Given IPIX is a micro-cap, publicly traded company this has been a very good financing option for the company. If you look at the data as posted by Daubers (assuming they are correct and I assume they are), 40M in capital for dilution of between 20-30%, is stellar.

If IPIX was a private company going through the standard VC/PE route, each raise would dilute the founders/early stage equity holders by 20-25%. To get to 40M in funding the company would at least be through 3 rounds of financing. Traditionally a seed round is 500-2M, Series A will be 5-15M, Series B 20M+ and Series C bigger still... so to end up with 40M in capital and only see 27M shares added to the float (out of 150M is very good and significantly better than would would be the case if it were private).

The major difference is that at each traditional VC/PE round the company sees a step in valuation, which isn't the case in a public company and hence the disconnect in share price and EV.

By the end of the year, with multiple partnerships in the bag, the company will be in a very different place and I expect SP to be significantly higher.

I'm expecting several small to midsize deals, potentially from limited markets or indications (think foreign exclusives) then a large deal from a big player in the US market (maybe in 2017 but certainly in 2018). I might be wrong but the fact that Leo just secured another line tells me that things are moving but he just put in place a significant insurance policy against low ball offers or not getting the value yet from partners that he sees is fair. he can now wait them out as data comes in.

Good news on the funding front today. I assume this is an insurance play by Leo and Co to assure the company can continue to fund operations and trials (even in the absence of a deal). That said, my money is on a deal(s) being announced before the end of the year and that is where the majority of the funding will come from.

The science is top notch and I'm assuming we'll see real stock movement on the announcement of a deal. Based on reading the tea leaves, I think we could see two to three of them in place in the next three months.

Good times ahead!

I'd be surprised if no deal materialized by the end of the year, there is just too much going on and that would beg me to reassess my some of my assumptions.

I really don't see that happening and I don't care if the deal is a game changer or small one, Leo/Art have run a pretty tight ship and I trust their judgement. My gut tells me that if it's a medium to small deal, the rational would be to get cash on the BS and continue other trials.

Once any deal is signed this company goes from theory to legitimate overnight. I'd love a nine-ten figure deal but won't cry if the deal is small. I would cry if management sell K or B or P outright for some paltry sum.

Interesting next four months!

Planning for the next four months... I've found this useful in trying to game plan the future and more importantly my response to it.

I thought it might be interesting to get the board's opinions and reactions given the following scenarios (none of these will be home runs) because an investor's reaction is easy to predict if significant 100M+ dollar offer is made.

1) The end of the year comes no deal has been announced, assuming no significant good or bad news, what will you do?
2) A single small deal is announced 1-5M upfront with back-end royalties (for a single indication or in a limited market). What do you do?
3) Multiple small deals are announced for limited indications totaling 5-20M upfront and back-end royalties. What do you do?
4) #1 happens but P 2b is inconclusive, what do you do?
5) #2 happens and P 2b is inconclusive, what do you do?
6) #3 happens and P 2b is inconclusive, what do you do?

I think it's important for investors to look to the future and try and game where they are comfortable or not.

I personally would be concerned if #1 happened, and OK with #2 and happy with #3 and ecstatic with a home run scenario. My logic is this, even if a deal(s) are small to medium we'd have 3rd party verification that the technology works and real money is being put on the table. I also believe that any deals will cause a cascade effect from those already at the table. Once money is committed the other players will be forced to move. a

Dr. Jerry, Leo has burned no bridges and I know for a fact that CELG had no idea who Leo or Cellceutix was until late last year. Please stop spreading false information and rumors.

Leo has done a masterful job moving the trials ahead. He hasn't been perfect but the accusations you're leveling are absurd and damaging to the company.

I've learned to temper my expectations over the years. I'm hopeful that we have a drug that is significantly better than Otezla but I think beating Otezla and getting into the biologic space is not probable, 10% in my book.

The reason for my projections of 60% matching Otezla and 20% being lower than Otezla is is because either results is a success in the market.

The logic is this, even if we match or are slightly under Otezla's efficacy, we KNOW we have a drug that is marketable. Matching Otezla, with a better safety profile would mean P would be a better drug than Otezla and would quickly eat into Otezla's marketshare. If P is still efficacious but not to the level of Otezla, P would still be a marketable drug. How many times have you been to a doctor's office and they say, we have two drugs that can work for this, A has better efficacy data but worse side-effects, B doesn't seem to work as well as A but has fewer side-effects. I know many doctors would start with B and see how it worked and move to A, if B didn't work. The "due no harm" is very much drilled into western medicine. Under this scenario P might not be a 2b/yr but it might be a 500-750M/yr drug. What would that be worth to a BP who's looking to compete with Celgene?

Point being, set your expectations low and be happy with achieving that bar and thrilled with anything better. Personally, I think the continued refrain of P being worth 10B is counter productive. Investors should do do their own math and decide where they think success would be. We'll know soon enough and I suggest people think through the possible scenarios so they are comfortable with all the possibilities, including the chance of total failure because it could happen. I'm expecting good news and am hoping for biologic type results but I'm not banking on it.

Guys this talk of leaks in both directions is counter productive. If there was material news about to be released, no one in their right mind, who had insider access would trade on it. If one bought 100k shares or 250k shares right before news was announced it would be noticed (and the amount of return is not worth the jail time that could follow). These low volume price machinations, are just that, noise.

Once we get news, we'll move steadily higher if the PIIb come out and are released even without a deal. If a deal is announced I expect us to be in the den digit EV within a few days. Going to .90 to 1.00 or .8 is meaningless over the long term. Let's not spread false rumors based on a few cent move. News and data will drive this stock, trading is trading and when one sees 3+ decimals on an OTC it's generally not human trading.