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Potentially the 2.5% tax on revenues being discussed for medical device makers. Could also be retail locking in profits, the number of shares traded was insignificant.
Canaccord presentation, you will have to register to listen/view:
http://www.wsw.com/webcast/canaccord8/gnmk/
- First actual mockup of the NexGen system
- More discussion around the core technology/patent protection
They are shaking the tree hard despite all of the great news. IMHO, this is the time to be long this name.
Selling looks to be exhausted, strong support in the 8.70ish range, MACD cross is imminent. IMO NVDQ is close to leaving the station.
Blue Sky above..........
Link to Piper Jaffray presentation, very positive:
http://www.media-server.com/m/p/797awbvf
Cynical, have been dipping my toes into this one. I continue to buy the pullback in the 8s and low 9s. Novadaq is severely oversold at this stage. Watching the business execution this Q and next before I take a larger leap.
fredugsi, just getting caught up after being on vacation for the past week. Nice action in Genmark!!! Near term I see potential for a move to the $11-$12 range based on the consolidation for a month+ and the recent break out. We still have a ways to go before we're over bought. I would like to see the recent gains get consolidated for a few days before we make the next leg up. If we continue to see positive news flow related to NexGen and a on time launch we hit 30 by end of Q3' 13 IMHO.
Dead board, nice action in GNMK today. Volume much higher than normal for this time of day (maybe institutions)and mostly to the upside. I haven't seen the bid/ask this tight for sometime and now we're seeing support on the bid. We close above 8.70ish and we retest and possibly break the former highs. Looking good.
The MMs are trying their best to get people frustrated on this one. Not being too successful however. Can't wait for some positive coverage, need more analysts like Piper stepping up.
We're almost there, another couple of days should wash the sellers out nicely.
Good entry point here to scale into NVDQ @ 10.20. However, it's been overbought for sometime, so we could see another $1-$1.50 move down.
BB
I completely agree fredugsi. Also, it's very interesting to watch this range box trading (with bid drops on 100 lot sales) and buys at the ask of a larger size. The MMs are trying "hard" to build a position of size and trying to shake the retail tree. I've seen this on many stocks over the years, we have a significant move coming in the next few days IMO.
A little surprised at the muted response to the earnings thus far. All signs point to progress on every front. Good to see the volume picking up a bit, hopefully that trend continues and we start to see new/updated coverage.
Absolutely, it's a Trojan horse strategy. Once the XT-8 systems are placed, they have a captive client who then get up sold on the new test kits as well as a "value" priced NexGen system that should carry a significantly higher price. It's a great model.
I sure hope not and like the fact that Genmark does very little to pump the stock.
Based on the earnings posted last night, we should have a very active conference call today. I would expect new coverage and several analysts significantly upping their 2013 FY estimates. We will hopefully hear more about NexGen developments and also new oncology related tests. IMO, we should conservatively see a $2+ move at a minimum today and a 50% move from here to EOY. With the earnings/execution as smooth as it is, my biggest fear is a hostile take over.
BB
Holy buckets, this is an absolute blow out Q. In a tough market meeting their already aggressive targets followed by a significant raise for FY. This stock moves $2+ tomorrow minimum. Hany & the management team are executing on this business with laser precision. With Obama winning the elections and Obamacare in full focus, could be a huge boost for Genmark placements in labs.
Looks like we have a blue light special on aisle 4. Genmark is soooo under the radar at the moment, we need a good report and more institutional coverage to get this going. Also, some liquidity would help as well....trades paper thin.
Positive articles from earlier this year describing the benefits of eSensor vs. competitive technologies:
http://www.cap.org/apps/cap.portal?_nfpb=true&cntvwrPtlt_actionOverride=%2Fportlets%2FcontentViewer%2Fshow&_windowLabel=cntvwrPtlt&cntvwrPtlt{actionForm.contentReference}=cap_today%2F0412%2F0412a_respiratory_virus.html&_state=maximized&_pageLabel=cntvwr
http://www.biofiredx.com/pdfs/Posters/2012/An%20Analytical%20Comparison%20of%20Four%20Commercial%20Respiratory%20Virus%20Panels-CVS2012.pdf
Nice to see the bid firming with 3 more days till earnings. Those abstracts were quite positive as well. Look forward to hearing about future oncology targets.
Wow thanks CynicalTrader, that was an excellent extract positive on all fronts across the various test types. When coupled with the speed of results, it's a paradigm shift to say the least. When will the market catch up to this reality?
Five trading days till earnings. I can't wait to hear the progress report against their key strategic initiatives 1) NextGen & 2) Sales growth acceleration.
Fred, not certain I would make an interpretation one way or the other. It would be really nice for them to beat the number and raise guidance again, that would really send a message to the market. Also, 2013 earnings consensus looks quite conservative at the moment.
Genmark earnings date 11/8:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/genmark-diagnostics-schedules-third-quarter-182900833.html
A good bit of volume for GNMK so early in the trading day, perhaps the story is starting to get out. Just need to clear some short term overhead resistance at $8.75 and Fred's run could be in play.
BB
I will continue to stay on top of the NVDQ story. If they maintain execution for the next 2 quarters, I will take a position. Near term charts says they are overbought and due for a correction.
BB
Hi Cynicaltrader, funny enough I have done some research on NVDQ and do like the company. However, I think they have some risks in developing their own sales force, it's a tough job. The reliance on partners will help short term with penetration, but I worry about their ability to up sell pinpoint longer term. What Genmark is doing in organically developing their sales force has proven super successful time and again in the medical device market which is 100% relationship based. Another concern is the NVDQ margins getting affected by the partnerships, the revenues don't flow down to the bottom line. I also give the Genmark management a AA+ and feel the NVDQ management is pretty good based on execution to date, but do not have the proven past track record. BTW, love the DD you've done and linked to the board.
BB
Thanks Fred. I've been reading up on your prior posts and you've made some astute calls on this one at levels much lower than this. Hopefully we can get the interest on this one kicked up a bit.
BB
I've been accumulating Genmark on the recent dip. It's got a huge TAM in a key area of medical development "individualized" treatment, cash rich, just entering the growth phase, organic sales development, not partnered so all profits flow to the bottom line, a technology road map (razor & blades/tests), international expansion, attractive take over target, excellent management team, under the radar. What's not to love? If the growth track remains on target with this next earnings report, the stock should make a significant move. It's my single favorite medical device holding.
BB