Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Interesting to know that we partnered with Eli Lilly on this, and study has completed Phase 2. JJ has been withholding info from us. Think about all the investor conferences that AEMD has attended, without a blurb about ESI. I can understand he wants to maintain a low profile and not attrack attention, but this is info that investors should know.
I unloaded today. Feeling real good about it too. Still have a small position and will buy back if history repeats...
CTE not yet confirmed in this case, but suspected and being tested.
This story hits close to home as Tyler Sash was very popular in his playing days.
http://www.cbs2iowa.com/news/features/top-stories/stories/Tyler-Sash-Cause-of-Death-218249.shtml
DARPA award...
I've been watching this site for the DARPA award which should happen in next few days IMO.
http://www.defense.gov/News/Contracts/Contract-View/Article/617854
I don't know if it will show here before it is announced publically, but I see my own division listed for a $106M award today (9/18) which has not been disclosed yet. If that is any indication, I think we will see it here first. Maybe this good news is already baked in from JJ's announcement at the last investor conference that he has rec'd a verbal though I don't think so. I think we will see a PPS pop with the news and then some profit taking.
- Last DARPA award listed on this website is 9/1/15.
DARPA contract award should happen any day now based on my experiences with govt awards (including DARPA although in defense spending).
As JJ indicated, they have rec'd verbal notice of receiving Yr 5 award. IMO the program manager/review board have reviewed the progress and recommended the final option to this contract. Now the paperwork is in the signature cycle. Given the relatively small $ value of Yr 5, this should not take long.
Also, keep in mind the govt fiscal year end is Sept 30. Contracts are not considered executed until signed by both parties. As the budget for this effort is likely in FY15, the contract needs to be signed before the close of books at year end under the 'use it or lose it' philosophy.
I'd be surprised if we don't see this award this week yet.
I agree Bill! I don't think I'd be here if not for this DARPA project. GMP approved and prototypes delivered. Yr 5 award likely early Sep as govt contracts dept makes their awards prior to fiscal year end. Can't wait to see the end device and who all has a part in it.
B
Hopester, what do you make of today's sell off of CTSO after announcement of earnings date (though the date s/b of no surprise to anyone)? I bought more at almost the low of the day only to watch it rebound and sell off again. Was today just an anomaly or do you think it was more related to some getting out before earnings (as suggested in by that analyst that there may be one more bad qtr ahead)? I won't mind if it drops after earnings as I plan to buy more as I think the next year will be a good one for CTSO.
And since this is an AEMD board, I am holding a smaller amount of shares than usual and will buy back after earnings. The way I see it, revenue is known, costs are unknown but far exceed revenue. About the only positive I see coming is announcement of completion of the SAFETY trial. But as specified by JJ himself, it is just a SAFETY trial. We already know it's safe. This is just a lengthy delay.
Hopester, I'm back in CTSO as well. Picked up about half the shares I want to hold on Monday's dip. Waiting for the next qtr report to come out (2nd week of Aug or so) to see if Analyst Marc Peyco (Seeking Alpha) is correct that there may be one more bad quarter and subsequent sell off.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3333895-cytosorbents-taking-cytokines-by-storm
Hopester - your thoughts on JJ's willingness to turn over the company pretty much echo the sentiments JJ has eluded to for years. He has often stated there are discussions but he is not interested at this time. He has always been passionate about this company and appears less motivated about shareholder value and more interested in contributing to a product that can 'save lives' (on every slide presentation for a decade).
Bill has been right about this stock for years as many of you longs should remember. It was a long draught after we lost Bill and Ted (Hennasoc)and hopefully that doesn't happen again soon. I appreciate Hopester's technical analysis here, but I am also in the camp that they do not apply so much in AEMD's situation. I bought on the drop, as I have so many times in the past. The technicals may not have been good, but the pattern has always been the same. One bit of news and up it goes, followed by profit taking. I enjoy the volatility!
Very profitable week Bill! I also added significantly on the drop and am ready to celebrate finally making money again. You probably already have had a Guinness or two. I'm about to break open a bottle of Crown Royal that I've been saving.
Anxious to see what next week brings! Should be hearing of the next steps in CTE in the near future, among other things!
Bryan
I've been thru this about 15 times in the last 10 years. In every case, within about a month this board will be full of posters saying 'this stock should be worth 10x....' This time is likely no different. Although I am not a fan of JJ, he does always come thru.
Hopester, we did not get news from Aethlon regarding distribution of HPs to the German doctor who treated Dr. Mawanda. It was released by other sources after the fact.
I agree. Would help explain JJ's timing of the RS.
My thoughts exactly DJ. Still expecting good news on the CTE front, and hopefully an announcement of contract or grant money soon to follow.
Bill, I have spent hours digging into this DARPA award in the early stages trying to find a way to leverage my investments with this breaking technology. Unfortunately I have come up with nothing. As you mentioned, most of the award recipients are private. I have to say I am truly surprised at the number of remaining participants. In the defense spending area, it is rare that even two survive the several down select stages. DARPA is definitely investing heavily in this technology, and those that make it to the end will be big winners. For now I will be keeping an eye on the 10-Qs for milestone accomplishments and revenue from the T&M contract with Battelle.
Bryan
Paulness - Remember my response to your post over a month ago on AEMD board? If not, I have copied it below:
'I never feel bad about making money. A guy on CNBC once said, you will never buy the lows and sell the highs, so don't worry about it. There will be plenty more opportunities in CTSO. I feel bad for you in never taking profits. It was at 11+, then upper 7s. What a missed opportunity!'
I made over $2/share and sold everything at that time. Today I could buy back for same price. Sometimes it really is that easy!
Hope you took some profits.
The only explanation I have for ExThera being added to the Battelle effort this late in the process is that they have just recently passed their clearance separation of the 5 listed pathogens as specified by the DARPA Statement of Work. Though 'late' to the contract, this is not a deal breaker if DARPA felt they were on the right track.
To answer the question, why now? - I see ExThera was awarded an early contract as evidenced on the teaming site from early on:
http://teaming.sysplan.com/BAA-11-30/abstracts.html?3.+PROPOSERS+DAY+POSTER+ABSTRACTS
Obviously DARPA is being provided with several good options for one (or more) final solutions. I am still confident Aethlon will be awarded year 5 given their progress on meeting the DARPA clearance targets, and recent changes in milestone wording. I also agree, definitely something to worry about.
Hi Bill, good to see you are still around. I was wondering since haven't heard from you since the Ebola rise/fall.
For what it's worth, I always questioned if the device would resemble the HP. This was based on early milestone payment events such as 'bread board design' and 'protoype device'. Some have explained this in the past as a revised HP filter.
Though I don't fully understand how all the peices fit, I'm still optimistic given recent milestone changes that DJPope pointed out.
Btw, I thought Ctyosorb's part of this effort was simply $300K+ for some kind 'bead'??? Again, no idea how that fits.
Bryan
I would agree. With HCV finally moving along, sepsis looking good, potential for some outstanding data from the DETECT study, and possibly a CTE research award, we may get some progress on the PPS to where a reverse split is feasible this year.
Very true! So short sighted. I've been in Aethlon for over 10 years now. Things are happening. Just not as fast as any of us would like, but that is the nature of the business they are in. That is why I'm so into the DARPA/Sepsis project. We have real results and are closer than anyone realizes to finally completing something that will drive value for the company. HCV is a long ways off. Ebola... who knows??? CTE data on 4/16 could be big, but still it will be years to transition to product revenue. If the data is good (and it should be or why else present it in this format), look for a contract award from NIH or other govt agency in the near future!
DJ - Good post over on IV. I have yet to create a login over there or I would have replied pretty much the same to that nut job Trickle Down Theory. Maybe while I'm sitting here with some time I'll create a user profile over there.
Agreed. This news goes a long way toward assurances that Year 5 will be awarded late summer/early fall, and more importantly that Aethlon will be a part of the final solution. This Sepsis project is the most concrete prospect Aethlon has going. Anything Ebola or HCV related has all just been ‘bonus’ IMO.
Djpope - one thing I might add - though we have not seen the Statement of Work(SOW), this document typically follows the Request for Proposal (or solicitation) with possibly a few modifications. The govt has strict rules about billing to it's contracts. In short, only work authorized by the DARPA Sepsis contract/SOW can be billed to DARPA by Aethlon. That said, these changes in milestone billing are more likely in support of production to meet demand for their sepsis solution. Not Ebola, HCV or other unless DARPA working on plans to issue a seperate contract in the future - not likely in my opinion as Ebola does not fall under DARPA area of control.
Pretty well stated djpope. I completely agree that this change is a good indication that something is in the works. It is not uncommon to change the wording of a billing milestone. However in this case, the changes are significantly different from the original, and directed toward manufacture of product. I believe DARPA is completely behind the HP and it's use in some future application, whether it is sepsis, ebola, or other, and is working with Aethlon to clear obstacles for large scale production. If you don't agree to the meaning behind the changes in billing milestones, just read again JJ's words
'We entered into the initial contract on September 30, 2011. The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency entered into the contract modification in an effort to accelerate our production of the Aethlon Hemopurifier® .
Aethlon gearing up for production?
So happy I loaded up last week!
Prospectus Filed Pursuant to Rule 424(b)(3) (424b3)
On March 12, 2015, Aethlon Medical, Inc. (“we”) entered into a modification of our contract with the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, part of the Department of Defense. We entered into the initial contract on September 30, 2011. The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency entered into the contract modification in an effort to accelerate our production of the Aethlon Hemopurifier® by modifying specific milestones we must achieve under the contract as follows:
· Milestone 2.5.1.1 under year 4 of the contract:
o Modified milestone: Complete Aethlon’s GMP procedure [for the Aethlon Hemopurifier®] and establish and maintain all GMP documentation for the company.
o Previous milestone: Develop additional optimized configuration(s) of hemopurification device(s) that contain(s) a combination of hemofilters, plasma filters, and affinity columns.
· Milestone M11 under year 4 of the contract:
o Modified milestone: Develop a strategic plan for developing an alternate method of producing GNA [Galanthus nivalis agglutinin, the affinity lectin immobilized within the Aethlon Hemopurifier®] by cloning the gene into an alternate vector and identify potential partners for such production.
o Previous milestone: Demonstrate the safety of an additional prototype device within an optimized fluidic circuit architecture preventing clotting in a 24-hour experiment in vivo at a blood flow rate of 200 ml/min using either pigs or dogs.
This is a perfect chance at some additional studies. You would think JJ would be pushing to get these four (or more) enrolled for the safety study. Might be able to pull some 'early capture' type data as well.
This presentation will probably look exactly like the last one, with a couple updates - HCV safety test underway, CTE results 4/16. I will be shocked if we get anything more than that.
If we are looking out to October, don't forget to include DARPA award of year 5 (final year) in Sept/Oct timeframe. Award of year 5 will only come upon completion of milestone M12 - Complete studies in septic pig models with optimized combination cartridge for >90% clearance of at least 4 of 7 sepsis marker targets in 24 hours. Accomplishment of this final major milestone would be huge for ensuring Aethlon's inclusion in the final solution. Keep in mind Aehtlon has already accomplished M9 - Target capture > 90% in 24 hours for at least 5 of 7 targets ex vivo in blood or blood components using the optimized cartridge (final criteria for Year 3).
Paulness you truly are an id*ot. You obviously have no business/managerial experience. No company would ever want to voluntarily release their pricing structure/cost as not to invite competition or give away competitive advantage. One can do some math after product revenue is generated and make their own assumptions (which is probably what someone did on CTSO board to give you the $500 figure). Also as Laker pointed out, the product is in developmental stage. It is insane to consider pricing when you don't even know your cost structure or have a marketable product.
You must live a boring life if you have all this time to waste posting negatively on the AEMD message board. Find a hobby, go to the gym or the mall. Get out their an meet some people. You could live a happier life.
Paulness posts from Nov:
#5944
AETH knows how to get some action with their press releases , lets hope CTSO has some good news to help out the share price .
#5841
Cytosorbents and Ebola , Look at AEMD news today (Aethlon Medical Announces First Treatment of an Ebola Patient) It is only a matter of time before Cytosorbents announces the same. Big bounce for AEMD .
. We continue to believe that our therapy may have applications beyond current uses, including the treatment of Ebola infection, particularly in the terminal phase that is dominated by cytokine storm
Go to page 65 of the S1 and read milestone payment 2.6.1.3:
http://app.quotemedia.com/data/downloadFiling?webmasterId=101533&ref=9976576&type=HTML&symbol=AEMD&companyName=Aethlon+Medical+Inc&formType=S-1&dateFiled=2014-12-31
Contract end date is Sept/Oct, so that puts completeion of this MS around late summer 2016.
2.6.1.3 Prepare and submit IDE proposal for sepsis treatment based on previously approved IDE ($193,719)
I never feel bad about making money. A guy on CNBC once said, you will never buy the lows and sell the highs, so don't worry about it. There will be plenty more opportunities in CTSO. I feel bad for you in never taking profits. It was at 11+, then upper 7s. What a missed opportunity!
CTSO has a contract thru Battelle as well for something like polymer beads? Though I often trade CTSO (sold today), I don't follow them near as close. How CTSO fits into the overall solution is unknown to me.
We are about 18 months away from submitting an IDE (Milestone 2.6.1.3 due at month 57) for the treatment of sepsis. With the potential of being a sole source supplier to the govt, this DARPA project is no small matter. Besides, Aethlon is on contract for both cost and schedule. There is no deciding to divert resources to HCV.
What does this have to do with me addressing your incorrect statements about Aethlon/Battelle/DARPA? I did not address your rant about missed opportunities.
You don't have a clue as to what you are talking about. Battelle is the system integrator. They are not on contract for the original statement of work as identified by DARPA-BAA-11-30. After receiving their award, Battelle turned around and issued Aethlon a T&M contract to support integrating Aehtlon's device into the final solution. Furthermore, if you read the 8K, you will see that Aethlon has acheived milestone M9 - 90% clearance of at least 3 of 5 identified pathogens. It is highly unlikely at this point Aethlon will not be in the final mix.
In regard to the 800K+ that was descoped - DARPA needed to cut budgets across the board. In Aethlon's case, they found 800K of scope they could live without for now. This happens quite often.
If you did your DD, you stopped to soon.
That's how I see it playing out. Like I said, nobody works for free.
Agreed, though a trial may be down the road some. We can expect some contract news. Nobody works for free (except on internal IR&D for short periods with the goal of that effort leading to getting on contract). This will be near term in my opinion. I'd guess it is in the works.
Highstakes, I will answer you bc it seems like you are the only one here. Seriously, what the heck? Today's action is crazy. I sold all my OSUR recently and looking to buy back. Having been in and out for a decade, I know to wait til it settles out.