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<< Added 7.5k shares at $1.67 >>
You and a few other board members trade by chasing the share price. A few days ago PPHM was at $1.25 and no buyers. Today is at $1.60 with many jumping on the bandwagon. That's exactly what MMs want you to do. Well, don't. Buy on a pullback and take a bit off the table into a rally - it is really simple.
<< Another 420 call contracts for MAR 1.5. (42K shares) >>
I did that, buy-write, bought stock and sold $1.5 calls. My cost about 1.39 for a buy-write, if called away I get about 7% profit in 7 days. I've been doing this for the last few months to lower my cost per share. Next week will be interesting.
<< Largest option buying in equities so far. >>
Yea, April $5 strike 10,000 calls traded
<< To join in the sabotage discussion, I would look at who CSM does alot of work with (BP).>>
It would be very difficult for a BP to pull something like this off. Can't pay for the bribe with the company check, has to be cash and it would have to come from the private pocket of a top executive without being traceable to the company. A third person who is not associated with the company would have to approach and bribe a CSM employee and deliver the cash - all that would be a great risk and if discovered would result in a big time scandal and prison time for everybody involved.
It would be easier for a hedge fund or a rich private investor to do it.
<< When the woman in Fargo is arrested... >>
Waterboarding brings quick confessions. Can we send her to Gitmo for the treatment?
I sold $2 calls a while back when the stock was higher at an average price of about $0.15. Short about 900 contracts, can't quite justify buying them back now for $0.05, so I'll let it ride. Thinking about buying $1.5 calls back if I can get them for a nickel - don't have too many of those. Actually buying more shares could be a better play, stock is likely to go up some after the CC.
<< King has 40K options at 2.75. Expiring 3/19. I'd sure like to see him be in the money for that >>
I am short a lot of $1.5 and $2 covered calls expiring on 3/16. I like to see these expire OTM. Looks like we have a temporary conflict of interest.
<< PPHM vs ONTY.....so what makes PPHM better than its twin....or worse... >>
Well, you can't be serious - Stimuvax doesn't work.
Dec 19, 2012
"Shares of Oncothyreon shed more than half their value Wednesday after the drug developer said an experimental lung cancer treatment missed its main goal of improving overall survival in a late-stage study.
THE SPARK: The Seattle company said Stimuvax, which is labeled L-BLP25, was tested in patients with an advanced form of non-small cell lung cancer. The study involved more than 1,500 patients in 33 countries.
Oncothyreon said researchers saw "notable treatment effects" in some subgroups of the study, and it will conduct more analysis on that, but the company did not offer details. CEO Robert Kirkman said that the results were disappointing, and he noted the drug has been under development for more than a decade."
<< It will be licensed >>
To whom? And for how much? If they can't get partner what makes you think it can be licensed...
<<iam maxed out.>>
I wish you luck but you're playing with the fire. Sure, the stock can drop below $1, absolute bottom is probably around 70 cents, so best case profit for you is about 55 cents per share if everything goes your way. Potential upside is much bigger and you can't afford to be maxed out with short position without hedging (1.5 calls would do), as you could get wiped out if they announce partnership or excellent first line lung results.
<< Cotara will NOT be partnered, but WILL BE developed internally by PPHM. >>
Agreed , most likely will not be partnered, especially not as a separate deal. If it is too expensive for a possible partner to run p3 what makes you think PPHM will do it. Where is the money to run this trial without a partner?
<< So what's the 2nd presentation? Can it get anymore strange? >>
Yes. it can. How about a buyout announcement by BP... LOL
<< How long do we have to wait for a Cotara partner? >>
Looks like BP is not interested in Cotara alone, or we would already have a partner. IMO Cotara partnering can only happen thru a larger deal that includes Bavi, and for that to happen first line lung results have to be really good. If not they will have a hard time finding a partner for anything.
<< I suspect any substantial news will be out of nowhere >>
You've been playing that tune for the last few months and investing in the next month options hoping for a quick profit. Most things in life take longer than we expect and only bad things happen fast. We could easily have a few months quiet period with no major news and stock staying flat or slightly down. IMO no partnership till the first line lung final data come out which can take up to four more months.
<<still shorting as much as i can and can't, margin maxed out ....>>
Well, good luck to you, at least in the short term. IMO you picked the wrong time to short, the way it works best is if you short high and cover low. You are shorting low and hope to cover lower - a dangerous game. If we get some positive news you'll get margin calls and lose all your beer money. If I were you I would think twice about holding short position thru the presentation on March 5 and CSM hearing on March 8.
FTM - need help
Below is the table I made from KM curves 2nd line lung by counting ticks. Does anybody know why is the censored rate for 1mg and 3mg Bavi arms > 50%.
Typical censored or dropout rate for similar trials is around 20%.
The trial had about 50% of patients outside of US - did anybody compare dropout/censored rates for US patients and the ones from outside US? Do you think BP should have problems with high censored rate in this trial? Did PPHM management address this issue? Thanks.
Bavituximab Control 1mg 3mg Non SCC-NSLC 2nd Line Phase IIB
DRAFT
Number-initial 38 40 39
#Ticks 25 19 16
alive at end 0.00% 0.00% 11.11%
#Included 25 19 18
#Censored 13 21 21
Censored % 34.21% 52.50% 53.85%
end #mo. 15 17 18
Comment double tick
counted as 2
0-3 die 5 5 6
0-3 dropout 1 0 4
3-6 die 11 6 6
3-6 dropout 3 7 2
6-9 die 5 3 1
6-9 dropout 4 0 6
9-12 die 1 4 1
9-12 dropout 2 7 6
12-15 die 2 1 1
12-15 dropout 4 7 3
15-18 die N/A 0 1
15-18 dropout N/A 1 0
Dropout or Die 38 41 37
Checksum above
PS.
How do you keep original formatting when doing copy/paste from spread sheet. It looked good on draft but not when posted.
Who will have the last laugh?
" shorting more @ 1.21... " Here4Beer
" long and strong from 1.21 " Lupo Bianco
<< I'm a buyer here. >>
Stock or options?
Probably a glitch. I've seen this before with other stocks.
If they really want the shares without increasing the daily volume they can simply buy in the money March options that carry very little time premium and wait till expiration. Now, if they want to drop the price for some reason, they would get the share by exercising those options and sell them into a coordinated bear raid. I guess we will know soon enough.
It may be a good idea to put in some limit buy orders at $1.30 or even lower to get some cheap shares if a bear raid takes place.
<<What is advanced from "high interest"? What will King say at the Cowen or Roth conferences? Partnering interest is now "Really, really super-duper red hot high, cross my heart and hope to die?" >>
You got it, that's what is gonna happen, he will have no partners to announce. BPs are sandbagging. Time is on their side, they want better deal and first line lung final results.
Excercising $2.50 April calls would be really stupid. They still have considerable time premium plus you have to pay the difference between share price of $1.60 and strike price of $2.50. If one really wants to get the shares without buying them openly the best way would be to buy in the money March calls that carry almost no time premium and exercise those.
<< Almost 40,000 April 2.50 contracts open yesterday and the right to buy almost 3 million shares simply vanished overnight with no recorded volume. Poof! Someone took delivery.. >>
C'mon now. How can you exercise out of the money calls? You guys are getting paranoid, like there is a major conspiracy against retail PPHM shareholders.
Second line NSCLC Phase IIb trial
from Marketwire - Sep 7, 2012
"The following interim data was presented as part of a late-breaking plenary presentation at the 2012 Chicago Multidisciplinary Symposium in Thoracic Oncology by David Gerber, M.D., Associate Professor of Internal Medicine at the University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, a principal investigator in the trial."
Does anybody know what is the association between MD David Gerber who presented the interim data and PPHM. Also who did the statistical analysis and what is the normal procedure to unblind the study - is it done by the company or some other FDA approved organization?
Thanks.
<< Is there some other way to close out a call option other than exercising it or selling shares against it? >>
Well, your question is not very clear. The answer is really simple.
If you buy calls you can close out by selling the same calls or by excercising if they are in the money. Normally you wouldnt want to exarcise if there is a time value left in the calls, it is better to sell or wait for the expiration at which point you would be assigned shares for the strike price.
If you write or sell calls you can sell against your shares which is called writing covered call. One can also write or sell naked calls (without having the shares). In either case you are required to provide the shares at the strike price if the calls are in the money at expiration or if the holder of those calls decides to exercise.
<< But I'm still on the bid for those $2 March calls if you're feel like lowering your cost basis >>
I sold the calls only on part of my position, can't take all potential upside away, especially not for 5 cents per share. Right now daytrading on part of the position looks more attractive with these 5% swings.
<< decided to buy back PPHM this afternoon >>
GLTY. Is it for short term trading or hold?
<< Why would King even make that statement, knowing full well he'll look like a fool on 3/5, if he has to keep saying the same thing with regards to partnering. >>
They do not announce partnerships at health care conferences. He will most likely have to say the same thing again and who is going to take it seriously this time. He may be good in the lab but not as CEO.
<< 75K lot at the ask .1.60. >>
Some of that is mine, daytrading. Bought more near the low in the morning, will sell for 1.60 or 1.59 if I can.
<< There has to be a money/paper trail. >>
Don't count on it. If it was a conspiracy they had to be very careful, no paper trails, no emails, no checks. It would be nearly impossible to prove if true.
<< Sell me some of those $2 calls for a nickel. >>
No, not for a nickel. I got .15 for most of the $2 Mar I sold. February OPEX was good for me, everything I wrote expired worthless. We shall see what happens in March.
EYEBUY, still buying March calls?
I thought I was done selling covered calls but changed my mine yesterday after the news and sold $2 March on 30% of my position and considering selling some April calls as well.
Partnership may not happen till after the final results of the first line lung trials are out. The second line results don't look as good now as they did in September, so BP will probably wait or offer less lucrative deal. Another 3 months delay before any new important announcement is not only possible, it is probable.
The volume is pathetic today, no buyers, and MMs can churn and drive PPHM wherever they want to. It would not be surprising to see SP go down to 1.5 level within next couple of weeks barring partnership announcement. That would present a buying opportunity.
Market is high and if the sequestor hits it will take everything down, especially high beta stocks. Precious metals got hit hard - it defies the logic given real loose monetary policies all over the world and huge debt levels. We might have a few really ugly weeks in front of us.
You explained stat sig well but something needs to be added. The p < 0.05 is really arbitrarily set number, it is 5% or second standard deviation. What that means is that if a drug is approved with p=0.04999 the chance is still about 5% that the drugs really doesn't work and the result of that particular phase 3 was a statistical fluke. We could have set the standard for approval to be first standard deviation, or the third one, or any number in between. So saying that p=0.04999 is stat sig and p=0.05001 is not and sticking strictly to that as a condition for a drug approval is almost ridiculous.
<< My call out is that the MOS can indeed get better by showing longer survival for censored patients that event than survival indicated by an interim result-- if censored patients event over time where there are more patients that event "to the right" of the interim MOS value than to the left >>
Correct. Furthermore one can argue that the 3mg Bavi patients that were censored last time they announced MOS in September were the ones that were still alive at that time and living longer than average for the arm, and if/when they event it is likely to push MOS to the right. Same goes for combo of 1mg Bavi plus placebo arms but to a lesser degree. IMO final MOS for 3mg Bavi will move to the right, and 1mg Bavi plus placebo combo may also move to the right but less than 3mg arm.
<< I think I'll start charging for my research. How much are you willing to pay? >>
You get Loofman Korn Licker Classic and the Squirrel Varmit.
Well, You is red too, so You git no more Korn Licker to no drink.
Ayer investment in PPHM is a very small part of their capital, it is a play money for them.
http://www.insidermonkey.com/hedge-fund/ayer+capital+management/374/
EYEBUY, are you buying any March calls? This time you won't get them from me, time to sell covered calls, IMO, is over. Tried to buy $2 and $2.5 calls today - limit orders didn't go thru. Will try again on Tuesday unless we get the good news and PPS goes thru the roof in pre-market.
<<Does anyone else feel like we are hanging on the edge of a cliff?>>
Well, no reason to get all worked up over PPHM. Both lung cancer trials will have good outcome and all we have to do is to buy more on the dips and wait. The PC phase 2 was largely neutral, we expected more, hence the disappointment and share price drop. All just IMHO.
<< So they should keep us under 2$ because the calls outweigh the puts >>
Calls outweigh puts, that is correct, but the ideal closing price for option writers is $2 - to burn both $2 calls and puts. The number of $2 calls and puts together is about 6,000 contracts, probably not enough to push the PPS much. Looks like price will be flat today, probably close around 1.80 or slightly lower. I would like to see it go up close to $2 to sell some shares I picked up yesterday around $1.65
Here is another option pain calculator
http://www.optionpain.com/OptionPain/Option-Pain.php
<< NO PPHM related reason to keep us below 2$, the option max pain. >>
This is not entirely correct. There are also about 2500 $2 put contracts and option writers would like those to expire worthless as well, and for that to happen they have to push shares to $2 at the close. So, max pain theory should push share price higher today but not over $2.