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Hey, hold your horses, it is not DIHYDROGEN MONOXIDE, here is what BioChica said:
<< my trades are in Amarin and a smaller amount in PPHM.>>
Interesting. I also have some AMRN shares and much more in PPHM. Not sure Amarin will be able to pull it off, PPMH has a lot more potential IMO.
If you think a pullback is coming did you consider getting some ^VIX calls for protection. VIX volatility index is around 12, which is historically very low, it will go up even on a small market drop.
PPHM doesn't really move with the market, I see no reason to get out of this stock in expectation of a pullback that may not even happen and miss the boat.
<<To good to be true, Hope I am wrong.>>
No, Drumstick, you are not wrong, you are a realist. Too many Kool aid drinkers here. No way to see $5+ after ASCO, not even if they get p3 go ahead.
I wonder if they really know what they are doing hiring all those directors, they will be top heavy - too many chiefs, no indians. It will also put big pressure on the budget.
Based on strictly technical indicators the PPHM is a buy at this level. However, we all know that news always override technicals, so keep your fingers crossed for good first line MOS and second line p3.
<<I have no clue what you just posted.>>
Google for "slow stohastics %D %K". Not hard to learn. I usually don't trade event driven stocks like PPHM on technicals, but I may look at them for entry points.
H4B<<will cover when Slow stoch comes down to 20>>
How do you trade PPHM using slow stohastic - what do you use for %K and %D or do you stick to the default values and buy on 20 and sell on 80? Do you use a crossover of %D and %K for anything?
<<158 shares listed after the close at $1.51>>
This is funny, why would someone trade 158 shares for $238 and pay $9 in commission. Looks like some sort of a signal for $1.58 on Monday etc.
<< EVERYTHING with Peregrine is much longer then we expect. >>
Not only that, generally in life almost everything takes longer than expected. Only bad things happen fast.
As far as I remember we have no major events for PPHM scheduled in June, it could be an uneventful month barring frontline data release. I am contemplating selling June covered calls again on my trading shares - any buyers?
<<All out of PPHM..it was a nice 10% ride..started shorting @ 1.52...will cover back in the 1.30's>>
Interesting trading strategy. However you can get your 10% to 15% in 30 days simply by selling June 1.5 strike covered calls for 0.15 to 0.2 without taking on the additional risk by being short.
OPEX will not have any influence on closing price tomorrow. Open interest is very low, total call contracts are around 1600, puts are much less. There are 1100 call contracts for 1.5 strike, out of those I wrote 400, or ~35% of open interest. So, as you can see, there will be no pressure by option writers to keep the PPS at $1.5.
<< 1 cent short with your estimation of close at 1.57 >>
They painted the tape, last 100 shares trade was 1.56, several trades before that were all 1.57.
<< LooksLike LessThan 10,000(Visible) Left For $1.57 >>
Yea, they are playing games again, no 1.57 left and the churning goes on at 1.575.
<< still see the volume at $1.62 and $1.65>>
Yes, 187K at 1.62 and 100K at 1.65 still sitting there.
Churning shares at 1.505
Nine out of ten orders are for 100 shares and using 3 decimal places price which retail can't do. Nobody in the right mind would buy or sell 100 shares for $150 and pay $8 to $10 in commission.
The MMs are playing the usual game to keep the price pinned. Every time there is a trade for more than 100 shares the price goes to 2 decimal places format and goes to 1.51.
There should be a 0.05% sales tax on trading. That would quickly stop that share churning nonsense.
<<__We havent seen 6M shares since March 8th__>>
I was expecting the PPS to go up more on such volume. Who the heck is selling at this time?
<< We have a great PPHM scientific team - thanks Steve >>
Well, credit for Bavi goes to Thorpe, not PPHM scientists.
<< We have a Cotara, first, PIII approval - thanks Steve >>
Yes, p3 approval - no partner and no trial. So, what good is it?
<< We salvaged a dose switched CT - thanks Steve >>
Salvaged? That remains to be seen. We don't even have the end of P2 meeting with FDA.
<< Prepare for battle at $1.40 >>
What battle? The trading is down to nothing, only 800K shares traded. If everybody on this board adds 10% on the same day, or better yet at the same time, we would exceed that volume by order of magnitude and the stock would skyrocket. We could organize a big bull raid, get the shorts to panic and start covering adding more fuel to the fire in the process.
<< 13 months would be a winner IMO >>
It should be a little better than 2nd line NSCLC. Patients in 1st line are probably somewhat healthier, one would expect better MOS. However the sample sizes are small and we are likely to get some statistical noise. 14 months would be my guess. Subgroups may be interesting.
You can't look at the calendar and end of enrollment date trying to estimate MOS. That didn't work for pancreatic trial and it most likely will not work here. Generally the longer we wait the better the MOS could be, but it also depends on how long they sit on the data before making an announcement.
This is from DCTH IV board, it applies to PPHM and biotechs in general
" Maybe the government can save money by eliminating the FDA completely and have biotechs submit clinical data to the Street.com. AF and Cramer can then decide whether drugs are approved or rejected. That seems to be what is happening already in the marketplace for biotech stocks. "
H4B, Are you still long or have you shorted again this morning?
<< but does this perhaps mean they have the non US partnership locked up? >>
Why is every PPHM news always viewed thru rose color glasses? This could also mean they are not yet ready to try for non US partnership. According to SK they have been in partnership talks for the last 6 months or longer. So, why suddenly would they need a new director for those negotiations - because SK failed in his effort?
Unusual AH trading after the earnings. Record April sales lifted the stock after the initial drop. It will be interesting tomorrow.
<< .Since you really don't see Steve King as a positive you should sell and go on to your next investment. >>
What is this, are you trying to chase anybody who doesn't share your opinion off the board? Sure, I do not see King and the brass as a positive, just look at the past history - taking way too long to get anything done. If anybody deserves the credit it would be Thorpe, not this management.
I am here for two reasons, Bavi and trading. I believe Bavi works and this ignorant team may pull it off on the end. Second reason is short term trading and option writing given the fact that the stock has been range bound and will continue to be range bound till we get major news, which IMO is about two or more months down the road.
<< Makes you wonder if they just want to keep their jobs. >>
I am beginning to see it your way. Shareholders money has been a milking cow for them for too long without producing any results. They don't want a buyout, you can be sure if BP buys them out they would have no use for SK and the top brass.
<< As we wait for Peregrine to execute it's business plan >>
What business plan? This management has done absolutely nothing and wasted a lot of shareholder money by doing ATMs at the worst possible time. If Bavi makes it on the end it will not be because of King and company, it will be all Thorpe's work.
<< Why would you spend money on a stock when you can get beneficial ownership of 700,000 shares for free? >>
This is very weak argument. You put your money where your mouth is. Look at some other biotech stocks where management bought on the open market in addition to the options they get for free.
<< That's silly. I wouldn't. >>
Well, I would if I were an insider and really believe in my company future. Secondly, insider purchase would lift share price which is especially important before doing ATM. They are supposed to protect shareholders interests. Bad and irresponsible management - period.
By their action they make it look like Bavi doesn't work, and then they expect to partner. If I were a potential partner I would ask them why they don't have any personal money invested in this great drug.
Take 5 days Bollinger, it shows different picture
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=PPHM&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=m50%2Cb%2Cp&a=v%2Cm26-12-9%2Cf14%2Cr14&c=
You always short at the wrong time, it will probably go up now. Where were you a few days ago when it was trading at $1.50+? That was the time to short, PPS has been stuck in 1.3 to 1.5 trading range for more than two months.
I just bought some trading shares at 1.35 to replenish the ones that got called away at $1.50 on Apr OPEX day. The bad thing is that nobody wants to buy the $1.5 May calls - confidence level in the upside for this stock is very low right now.
Good luck with your short.
<< What happened to the partners who they were in talks with while designing the trial? >>
Management has no credibility, that's what happened. How many shares have SK and company bought risking their own money? Insider buying on the open market would, at this point, lift the share price considerably. They should have bought before doing ATM. Conversely the lack of insider buying at this low price is one of the biggest reasons the PPS is where it is. If management doesn't believe in it enough to put some of their money on the line why would the investors?
<< How else do you find the sweet spot/indication/combination? >>
That last p1 for breast cancer we really don't need. Another p2 for different breast cancer finished a while back with positive results and they elected to do nothing with it. Indications are here for NSCLC and should proceed with it instead of sandbagging. They seem to be content to draw large salaries and do p1, p2 and ATMs forever. Bad management.
<< launching bavi is not their primary objective >>
<< THE STREET DOES NOT BELIEVE ANYTHING COMING OUT OF PPHM'S MOUTH >>
I am beginning to wonder, it looks that way on both points. Too many p1 and p2 trials, no p3, no partnership, no transparency, fat compensation for the brass without results etc. Carboat just might be right.
And another thing - PPS expectations are way down, option premiums are really low. Daily volume has been going down, no stock buyers and no option buyers.
<< What do you think the value of pphm will be if the FDA approves Bavi for ph III 2nd line lung, 1st line comes in at 15-20 months MOS, Bavi 2nd line is partnered, liver is partnered, pancreatic results based on subgroup ( or just similar ECOG) shows a better than Abraxane MOS (combination with Abrax to follow), etc? >>
This would be the best case scenario, north of 10 bucks with a potential to go much higher toward the end of p3 trials.
Let's look at the worst case now:
FDA doesn't approve p3 and wants another p2. First line comes in at 10 months or less and pancreatic subgroup is slightly better than Abraxane but with only a few patients in that group - not enough to have any statistical value. PPHM doesn't have enough money to do another 2nd line p2 or another pancreatic p2 and has to go for ATM. What do you think the share price would be?
PPG, do you know how many shares Dart and Ayers have and what percentage of their portfolio is in PPHM?
<< I would appreciate more discussion on the scientific/clinical side of Peregrine >>
FTM, cjgaddy and others have done excellent job on the scientific and clinical topics and for the time being there isn't much more to be discussed till we get the first line NSCLC results.