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Look at the trading pattern last 4 days. Stock was always at the peak at the open or shortly after and then it drifted down. This is likely to continue in absence of news. I wouldn't be surprised if it goes below $2 this week.
<< I doubt that VVUS has better platform than PPHM. >>
Can't compare VVUS and PPHM. VVUS has a recently approved weight loss drug QSYMIA which they just started selling. That's why they have only 41K in sales. It will be much higher this quarter.
"The publication, Approved Drug Products with Therapeutic Equivalence Evaluations (the List, commonly known as the Orange Book), identifies drug products approved on the basis of safety and effectiveness by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) under the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the Act)."
for more info open the link:
http://www.fda.gov/Drugs/DevelopmentApprovalProcess/ucm079068.htm
<<..that weekly chart is about yo burst...MACD crossover>>
Could be, than again it could also continue to slowly drift lower caused by churning in absence of news.
So far we have a wide range of price prediction, from 5.75 to 97. Irrational exuberance at work? The rest of the investment world and WS boys can't be that far off judging by the current share price, can they? In any case it looks like a good calculated gamble, downside is about $2, and upside is anywhere between 5.75 and 97. Take your pick.
<< buyout price of $5.75 >>
If Bavi works for several different cancers as we all tend to believe the company is worth a lot more. So, it is either over $10 and more, or back to penny stock.
<< I vote for Buy Out no partnership! >>
We are all in this to make money - whatever works. Hostile take over could be nasty, possibly more than one company involved. Do they have a poison pill provision, and if they do which one, the "flip-in" or "flip-over"?. Anybody?
FTM <Bavi will work very well for breast cancer>
They already had p2 for breast cancer, see this youtube interview with King in 2009. Response rate was good but they haven't done anything with it for the last 3 years. Could you please comment on this.
RE "Back to $5?"
Highly unlikely.
Why?
1. The market cap that had PPHM reach ~$5 was before the massive dilution since that point in time, so even if the same market cap were to be reached, the share price would be significantly lower.
2. The updated/revised data still isn't as good as what it was supposed to be when it was originally released.
3. The negative compounding effect of the above two reasons.
All true, but we also have good news. The other p2 trials haven't reached MOS - patients are living longer. Besides that the price is arbitrarily set, how do you put a fair valuation on PPHM?
<<I take this to mean that the MOS results won't be released until a good percentage of all the patients have died.
I am assuming something like 70%.>>
Could be, but hypothetically if Bavi works really well and most patients get cured by this therapy then we wouldn't reach 70% for years. The alternate interpretation is that they will wait long enough to establish a clear difference between the arms.
However, MOS event as a 50% threshold is a material fact that could influence share price, so it should be reported within few days. MOS results can't be reported till after the analysis is completed and that can take time.
Three year old interview on youtube with King
They had three p2 studies, two of those for breast cancer. Response rate was good - so, what happened with that and why it didn't progress to p3? Does anybody know?
Phase II trials
From peregrineinc.com and clinicaltrials.gov
Official Title: A Randomized, Open-Label, Phase 2 Trial of Paclitaxel/Carboplatin With or Without Bavituximab in Patients With Previously Untreated Locally Advanced or Metastatic Non-Squamous Non Small-Cell Lung Cancer
Estimated Enrollment: 86
Study Start Date: June 2010
Enrolment complete announcement: March 9 2012
Placebo/ Bavi ratio: 50:50
Estimated Study Completion Date: July 2013
Estimated Primary Completion Date: March 2013 (Final data collection date for primary outcome measure)
March 9 2012: "Peregrine expects to report median overall survival (OS) from this trial in the second half of 2012."
Later:
"Median overall survival data from the study is expected toward year end 2012 or 1st quarter of calendar year 2013."
______________________________________________________
Trial of Gemcitabine With or Without Bavituximab in Patients With Previously Untreated Stage IV Pancreatic Cancer
Estimated Enrollment: 70
Study Start Date: January 2011
Enrolment complete announcement: June 25 2012
Placebo/ Bavi ratio: 50:50
Estimated Study Completion Date: December 2012
Estimated Primary Completion Date: June 2012 (Final data collection date for primary outcome measure)
Steven W. King: "We look forward to reporting interim survival data from this trial before year end, ...".
___________________________________________________________
Enrollment schedule would be great help, couldn't find it. Let's look at the Pancreatic trial - King expected MOS in December, probably based on assumed 25% improvement with addition of Bavi. We have past that point, looks better every day.
<< I would however not be surprised someone can turn a close approximation out of their hat based on the fact that the first patients where enlisted about 2 years ago >>
To do that one would need to know the enrollment schedule. I don't know if it is available for investors. The enrollment schedules may be available in phase III trials. I watched and analyzed that only once for Dendreon's Provenge few years back, and it lead to the conclusion that Provenge chances for the results to be stat significant (p<0.05) were about 60%.
In this case if we assume linear enrollment curve starting two years ago, we would have been at MOS already, even if Bavi prolongs life by 100%. This leads to the conclusion that the enrollment schedule is either tail end loaded (most likely the case) or most patients on Bavi continue to live. If anybody has an idea or some data about enrollment distribution please post it. Do we know the pII trial size and percentage receiving placebo and Bavi?
Wook,
TA has very limited use in speculative stocks which are difficult to successfully trade based on TA. Yea, sometimes PSAR can be a good indicator of trend reversal lacking any other news or binary events. Same can also be done with other TA indicators, such as slope reversal in moving average, RSI, MACD etc. PPHM is clearly driven by events and by MMs in the absence of events, forget TA, what we need is good MOS.
Well, Yahoo 3 months parabolic SAR chart doesn't have the last trading day, it ends with Jan 2. So, the PSAR actually reversed yesterday but we couldn't see it till today. Yahoo uses default values of 0.02 and 0.2 for step and max step - for stock like PPHM greater step increment would be more appropriate.
<< With EU approveal all but certain >>
I wouldn't bet the farm on the outcome. VVUS failed in EU over the objection of French representative while all others were willing to approve it. Of cause, if it were a French company, the outcome would have been different. Can't trust those bastards - they play politics with health care, just like we do here.
It doesn't make any sense, does it? One would expect the PPS to creep up slowly with time in expectation of better MOS numbers. At this point no news is good news, and if the price drifts down to around 1 buck within next few weeks on no news it will be a screaming buy. Just hang in there, the longer we have to wait the better.
Well, MMs will make sure it goes down at the rate of few pennies per day till we get the news or a big buyer comes in. Churning at work.
Another paint job
It was 1.27 at 3:59, closed at 1.25
P.S.
Correction, Yahoo had delayed quote - it did close at 1.27
Right. They took it down 3% just before the close. Some MM is working hard to suppress the price.
<< ...is it possible that the MOS was reached lets say 2 months ago and they did not report it because they have to collect all the data from the international sites... >>
I am not an expert on this but it seems they would be required to report that certain number of events has happened. Reporting that has nothing to do with data analysis and can be done almost immediately.
Jeez, you can't be serious looking at Sierra's recommendations. Look at that web site again. What is she promoting, stocks recs or her bikini?
http://sierraworldequityreview.blogspot.com/2012_12_01_archive.html
Thanks. It looks overpriced at 0.62. $2.50 Jan 2014 options are going for 0.65.
MNKDW
Any place to find details on warrants, expiration date, exercise price etc.? Thanks
<< ..they said that the outcome is good but just taking a little longer.. >>
Well, this is very unusual, to put it mildly. It is actually a release of insider info to a third party over the phone.
<<The firm currently has a $1.50 target price on the stock>>
This price target from Zacks is ridiculous. If Bavi works the price goes thru the roof, if not PPHM is a penny stock. Take your pick, but it certainly won't be at 1.50 after the trial results are out.
<< If the production line is successful >>
This is the key question - we need to know if the line is running and yield. Being the first production line of that design chances are there are problems and bugs to be ironed out. Does anybody know the specs for the line, like production rate in meters per day, or meters per minute etc. What is the width of the strip coming out of the process line, do they have slitters to slice it into narrower HTS strips, etc. many questions...
Good post. I certainly learned more. Thanks for the info.
Thanks. Didn't know about DARPA. I looked at the web site, they claim to be the world leader in HTS materials since 1987 - sounds funny giving their market cap of only 12 millions after 25 years in this business.
They show three small process lines: Deposition Planarization process, Ion Beam Assisted Deposition process, and Reaction HTS deposition process. This all looks good on the web site, the bigger question is if they can make long strips without defects. I spent a lot of time in industrial plants setting up process lines as a part of my job with GE. New processes are always difficult to implement and debug, sometimes impossible. What works in the lab doesn't always work in production.
I guess for the stock to appreciate they have to be able to sell HST wire with profit. After 25 basically unsuccessful years can we really expect a breakthrough in the near future? And do they really care about it as long as they can milk DARPA?
< this new deposition process is on the horizon >
Do you have a link or some tech info about the feasibility of that process? They've been in business since 1993, and share price went from $100 in 1993 to about $500 in 2002 and down to 0.25 this year.
What were they doing all this time while AMSC and others developed their technologies? Looking at the past record one has to question the management. As I said, I am new here and don't know much about this company but one thing is obvious - they will run out of money in short order unless they can successfully make those 100 meter and preferably longer wires. What gives you the confidence to invest in SCON? Don't look at Kopp - he made his share of mistakes, bought 500,000 shares in 2011 at $2.45.
Given the past history of the company one can't exclusively use the CC material as a justification for investment. I haven't been able to do proper DD on this company and their technology - can't find anything. Can anybody help? Thanks.
Well, this is all great, but AMSC has everything that SCON has and more, including wind generators power electronics. I still don't see how can they take market share away from the bigger brother.
< April 10 dollar calls today? >
50 contracts traded today, are you a buyer or seller?
2.5 April calls are going for 0.40, this is 30% of the PPHM price for a far out of the money call. Anybody here selling covered calls?
< Insider buys millions...good "tell" >
Who was the insider, can you provide a link? Thanks.
<1km lengths is where the bucks are >
OK, I am new here, who would be a major user of this wire? Isn't AMSC in same business and why do you think SCON can successfully compete? Thanks
To determine the Max Pain influence on share price just before expiration one has to look at the call and put option values.
For PPHM Dec expiration it is:
$0.5 puts - $98,850
$1.0 puts - $27,300
$1.5 puts - $ 8,800
$1.0 calls - $ 6,000
$1.5 calls - $ 71,100
$2.0 calls - $223,850
(data from http://www.optionpain.com/OptionPain/Option-Pain.php )
Max pain is at $1, if PPMH closes at 1.0 option writers make $391,600. If it closes at 1.5 they make $356,000. The difference is negligible, and the value of both puts and calls is very small in comparison with daily volume in Dollars which is about 10 millions based on average volume. Max Pain number will not have any influence on this Friday closing price, the small amount of money in options doesn't justify any extra expenses on MMs part to drive the price to Max Pain point. It will close probably around $1.20 unless we have some news.
<<Of of risk and maybe a lot of reward. If you want low risk then buy bonds.>>
That's not exactly the point I was trying to make. Given low interest rates bonds are really bad investments at this time. I'm not necessarily looking for low risk, just looking for reasonable odds when taking on risk and trying to avoid getting drawn into a herd mentality that may exist on these boards. That syndrome is a dangerous thing, especially for a novice investor and one should repeatedly ask himself if he believes in the stock for reasons independent from positive posts on the board.
I am new here and have made a substantial investment (for me) in PPHM at around $0.70 and bought more a few days ago at $1.30 based on my DD. Some of the posts and links here really helped a lot - this is very good board.
Sounds too good to be true. If the doubling of MOS is almost a sure thing, as your post implies, why is the share price only $1.28. Hard to believe the rest of the investment world can be so wrong, they have the same info that IHUB members have, but are apparently evaluating the whole situation differently. I like to know how can a small group of investors see a huge potential in this stock while the pros don't, and are in some cases also shorting it. One can argue that the difference of opinion is what makes the market, which is true, but the discrepancies here are huge.
<$70 - $100 sp estimates are conservative>
Hold your horses. They are conservative only if Bavi increases MOS for a multitude of cancers by at least 50%, which is a big IF at this point. WS traders are usually not wrong for two orders of magnitude when evaluating stocks - PPHM is a calculated gamble. Nonetheless, it is a good gamble at this price.
<Yes it is shocking that nobody wants to buy today>
Well, the stock has been going down last few sessions, potential buyers are waiting for the bottom to form. You will most likely see higher volume if it gets below $1.2.
Well, that was my opinion too till I saw what happened to VVUS marketing effort. Sure, the drugs are different, Belviq has less side effects etc., but it also has lower efficacy. EISAI and some other big pharma companies are hard pressed to find new blockbuster drugs and are willing to take some chances. We will know more after they start selling, have to wait few more months.
No, but it is to some degree based on hope and speculation. I remember him from ARNA IV board, he tends to look at ARNA thru rose colored glasses, like many on that board. ARNA was a spectacular buy about a year ago at less than $2. I think it is fairly valued now and if anybody is looking for a 10 bagger it is best to look elsewhere. PPHM maybe?