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Market selling off today - all bets are off.
I heard the same rumor - something seems to be driving the price/volume so who knows.
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Forbes Wolfe Nanotech Report
Nanosphere Alert
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Dear Subscriber,
Symyx Technologies reported a strong Q4 2004 on Thursday, driven
by 35% YoY revenue growth to $25.2 million. Q4 net income was
$6.4 million ($0.19 per share), up 68% versus the $3.8 million
($0.11 per share) in the same period last year. For its FY 2004,
Symyx generated $12.9 million in net income ($0.38 per share) on
revenues of $83.2 million. In 2003, Symyx reported net income of
$5.7 million ($0.18 per share) on $63 million in revenues in 2003.
For Q1 2005, Symyx expects to generate $0.04-$0.05 in GAAP EPS on
revenues of $21-$22 million (of which roughly $20 million is
currently under contract). Symyx maintained its 2005 revenue
guidance of $108-$118 million, of which approximately $80
million is under contract. The company also expects FY 2005 GAAP
earnings of $0.35-$0.40 per share.
Symyx ended 2004 with $136.5 million in cash and equivalents,
after paying $26.6 million in cash to acquire IntelliChem. The
company's IP portfolio now stands at 235 issued patents and 390
patent applications on file worldwide. We continue to rate SMMX
a Buy.
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Forbes Wolfe Nanotech Report
Nanosphere Alert
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Dear Subscriber,
As we highlighted in our recent January cover story, FEI
Company's dedication to the advanced nanotech instrumentation
market is beginning to pay dividends. FEIC reported a monster
fourth quarter after yesterday's close of trading, with record
bookings and sales. Q4 2004 sales grew 49% to $145.2 million
over last year's $97.7 million, and also increased 36%
sequentially from the previous quarter's $107 million. Analysts
had expected the company to generate roughly $120 million in
revenue for the quarter. Q4 bookings, the best indicator for
the current quarter's sales, surged 42% to $143.8 million from
the same period a year ago. The fourth quarter bookings bested
the previous record-high in Q3 2004 by 14%--resulting in a
current backlog of $160 million.
FEI reported quarterly net income of $8.4 million, a 150%
increase over Q4 2003's $3.3 million in net income. Fully
diluted Q4 EPS was $0.21, versus $0.08 in both the previous
quarter and Q4 2003. Pro-forma EPS of $0.25 easily surpassed
Wall Street's estimates of $0.19 per share.
For FY 2004, net sales were $465.7 million, an increase of 29%
over 2003's total of $361.0 million. Bookings for 2004 were
$504.1 million, up 41% from $358.5 million in 2003. FEI generated
2004 net income of $16.6 million ($0.42 per diluted share),
compared with $7.2 million ($0.20 per diluted share) in 2003. The
company also expects further revenue and earnings growth in 2005.
FEI anticipates a seasonal sales decline in Q1 2005, but projects
pro-forma EPS of $0.13- $0.18 on sales of $120 million to $130
million. Analysts had been expecting earnings of $0.17 per share
on sales of $114.7 million.
FEI produced $12.4 million of cash during the quarter and ended
the year with a stockpile of $341.9 million. We reiterate our Buy
rating on FEIC and contend that current stock price does not
adequately reflect the company's growth prospects.
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Forbes Wolfe Nanotech Report
Nanosphere Alert
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Dear Subscriber,
NVE Corporation announced this morning that Cypress currently
has several key customers sampling "fully-functional" MRAM
devices developed using NVE intellectual property. The initial
disclosure from Cypress came in its year-end earnings release
last week. Previously, Cypress had announced that its MRAM
devices were experiencing soft error problems and it was unclear
if the issues could ever be fixed. This new announcement removes
any doubt that NVE's IP is valuable for MRAM development and
should also tear down a wall of worry errected by short-sellers
to pressure the stock.
"We see MRAM as the answer to a critical need in semiconductor
memory applications--a single-chip, fast write, low power, fail
safe, high- reliability nonvolatile memory," said Jeffrey K.
Kaszubinski, president and CEO of Cypress' Silicon Magnetic
Systems subsidiary company. "The technology developed by NVE
Founder Dr. James Daughton and others at NVE was important to us
in reaching this milestone."
We've been consistent in our contention that the market has not
fully priced in the value of NVE's MRAM franchise, and we singled
the stock out in our recent January 2005 issue for having the
greatest upside potential. The stock's 11% gain this morning
confirms this. While NVE will not see sales royalties from any
Cypress MRAM product, the technology validation it brings is even
more critical. The next catalysts on the horizon are Freescale
[FSL] announcements of commercial production and a new licensing
deal with NVE (after Motorola [MOT] said it would likely provide
Freescale with its "have-made" rights to MRAM). We reiterate
our Buy rating.
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Forbes Wolfe Nanotech Report
Nanosphere Alert
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Dear Subscriber,
NVE reported lower Q3 revenues and profits on sluggish demand
for its industrial components. While EPS of $0.08 exceeded
analyst projections by a penny, it fell below the $0.12 per
share recorded in the prior year quarter. Traders were prepared
for a product sales shortfall, as the company warned in
previous 10Qs that revenues in the back half of the year would
fall due to an anticipated decline in sales to St. Jude Medical
[STJ]. But the 18% decline in quarterly revenues to $2.56
million (versus last year's $3.12 million) was steeper
than expected.
The performance of its sensors and couplers business is an
sidenote in our NVE investment thesis, although it is crucial
that the company remain profitable to fund business operations
and MRAM R&D. More importantly and obscured in the Risks
section in the 10Q posted on the company's website, was a new
paragraph that noted that licensee Motorola [MOT] informed
NVEC that it is considering having Freescale [FSL] manufacture
MRAM chips under "have made" rights: "Motorola recently
indicated to us that it may attempt to have MRAMs manufactured
by Freescale for Motorola under the so-called "have made"
rights in our agreement with Motorola. We believe Motorola will
likely have terminated this agreement and so relinquish its
have-made rights at the end of 2005, as a result of having
transferred its MRAM manufacturing capability to Freescale. We
hope to, before then, negotiate a new agreement with Freescale,
or an assignment of the Motorola agreement to Freescale, though
only with amendments thereto, but there can be no assurances."
This is important as the use of "have made" rights shows MOT
wants to use the existing licensing agreement as long as they
can, in what can be viewed as a tacit admission that the
company's MRAM designs use NVE's Intellectual Property. MOT had
previously asked NVE to assign its licensing agreement to its
semiconductor spin-off FSL, and NVE refused without additional
consideration. NVE is now free to negotiate a new agreement with
Freescale or an assignment of the Motorola Patent License Option
Agreement to Freescale, but it's likely any new agreement would
be on more favorable terms to NVE than the present agreement
with Motorola (estimated at 1% royalties).
As long as our investment thesis on the value of NVE's MRAM
estate remains valid, we continue to recommend the company as a
Buy. NVE's earnings call is scheduled for 11am this morning.
Additionally, MRAM licensee Cypress [CY] has its year-end
earnings conference call on January 27.
Yes - I did the same with GLW (Corning) when it was under 2 bucks. Plus LU is in MUCH better shape than GLW when I was buying it.
Cramer comments -
Hype succeeds, short-term. It stinks long-term. That has to be the reason Lucent's (LU:NYSE - commentary - research) been so silent despite the unbelievable series of wins it has gotten in the last two months. First, Lucent won the Cingular business, a major new order. Then Nextel (NXTL:Nasdaq - commentary - research) announced a merge with Sprint (FON:NYSE - commentary - research), the latter being all Lucent, the former being no Lucent, and Sprint now will build out its network using more Lucent parts.
Yet the company is silent. The company never crows. The company just takes it all in. I think that's because Lucent CEO Patricia Russo saw it all happen during the good old days at Lucent, where Lucent constantly was bragging about orders that it hadn't nailed down yet and offering cheap financing to those who were doing the ordering. Russo knows that the story will have to be told by others now, not her. She can't be seen as hyping, given the lessons and the costs of hype from the previous regime.
In some ways, it is a shame. I think we would have a higher stock if Lucent were promotional. But in other ways, all that's happening is the stock's rise is delayed. Unless you have an appointment somewhere, you have to ask, "What's the hurry?" People have been emailing me, "I am down 50 cents on Lucent," to which I can only say, "Hold it; did I tell you to buy it all at once at the high? Was that really my directive?" Given that I preach, endlessly, that you shouldn't commit all your capital at one level, I can't even take these top-tickers seriously.
I always value second opinions. You in Lucent? Call Lehman Brothers. Get the reports by Steve Levy. He's been around. He knows the history. Read what he is saying. It confirms everything my sources are telling me.
And remember, sometimes it is not the velocity of the move that matters, it's the destination. You know where I think this one is heading.
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Forbes Wolfe Nanotech Report
Nanosphere Alert
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Dear Subscriber,
After plummeting more than 28% since early December on anemic
trading volume, NVEC has fallen to its cheapest level in
recent years. The lack of new deal or MRAM announcements has
left NVEC stock trading at 46x trailing 12-month's earnings.
What's important to note is that NVE, unlike many of its peers
commercializing nanotechnology, boasts growing revenues and
earnings ($0.48 per share) in addition to bright long-term
prospects. As we've detailed in previous monthly issues,
Freescale [FSL] and Cypress [CY] are in the homestretch to
commercial MRAM production and we contend that NVE will be
rewarded in both scenarios.
NVEC will continue to be a highly volatile stock. But we believe
its current price has discounted worst case scenarios for the
company's leading position in MRAM and the risk/reward is the
most favorable it has been since we began recommending the
company in July 2003. NVE reports its Q3 2005 after the close of
trading on January 19, but the most important announcements for
NVE investors will likely come instead from Freescale
or Cypress.
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Forbes Wolfe Nanotech Report
Nanosphere Alert
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Dear Subscriber,
Shares of NVE [NVEC] swooned in trading yesterday following a
website's criticism of the company's prospects. The closely
followed financial website MotleyFool.com first covered NVE in
a story called "MRAM: The Holy Grail of Memory" on August 18,
2004, where it objectively profiled the company as a
"hidden gem". On the afternoon of November 22, 2004, Motley
Fool flip-flopped, contradicting its prior stance, and published
a piece called "NVE's Nanotrap Only Snares Speculators."
Many subscribers to the Forbes/Wolfe Nanotech Report have
inquired about the article. Here are a few observations:
- This was not news. There were no third-party interviews or new
research. It was an opinion piece by a writer with unlisted
credentials or affiliation.
- NVEC has been long under attack by controversial short-seller
Manuel Asensio who wages press release campaigns that
successfully shake investor confidence.
- On October 14, Asensio released an attack on NVEC. Curiously,
the Motley Fool article published on November 22 used language
from Asensio's press release down to the misspelling of
"transistor"; incorrectly spelled "transitor".
The article contends that NVE backed away from its claim that it
would be due royalties if Motorola commercialized the MRAM
described in its technical papers. This is wholly inaccurate.
NVE did not back away from its claims relating to Motorola. In
fact, the company became even bolder in its claims of MRAM
patent value in the most recent SEC filing: "We know of no
practical alternative design being pursued by potential MRAM
suppliers that could be sold in commercial quantities in the
foreseeable future."
In the November subscriber issue of the Forbes/Wolfe Nanotech
Report, we quoted Stephens analyst Marcus Mainord saying, "It
is hard to imagine that Motorola/Freescale's MRAM does not to
some degree incorporate NVE's patents. Unfortunately we won't
be certain until Motorola begins selling chips."
Contrary to the Motley Fool article, NVE's "watershed" patents
('411 and '053) apply, but are not limited to, one transistor
per bit reading, and they do specifically relate to MRAM. Many
of the other issues the author brings up were directly
addressed in our most recent November issue, including the
Freescale [FSL] spin-off and NVE's relationship with Cypress
[CY]. While Cypress' MRAM program has experienced unexpected
delays, it has publicly reported progress on their designs
and yields.
Uncertainty still lingers. And that means long or short, this
stock will remain volatile. In the absence of any material news,
we stand by our contention that NVE's IP is valuable and
reiterate our Buy rating.
Press Release Source: Bookham, Inc.
Bookham New Focus(TM) Takes Leading Optical Technology Into New Market
Wednesday November 10, 11:20 am ET
SAN JOSE, CA--(MARKET WIRE)--Nov 10, 2004 -- Bookham, Inc. ("Bookham") (NasdaqNM:BKHM - News), a leading provider of optical components, modules and subsystems, has taken a significant further stride in its strategy of market diversification and the leveraging of its core optical competencies across markets by launching a revolutionary new line of optical filters for the life sciences industry.
The Clarity(TM) line of fluorescence filters from the Bookham New Focus division, in collaboration with the company's Thin Film Products group, marks the first transfer of the Bookham industry-leading thin-film optical-filter technology from the telecommunications market into the life-sciences market. The filters' superior contrast and exceptional reliability are unmatched by the older technologies currently used by life-sciences vendors.
"Optical filters are widely used in life science analytical and diagnostic instruments for fluorescence microscopy, flow cytometry, DNA sequencing, microarrays and other fluorescence applications," said Steve Turley, Bookham Chief Commercial Officer. "The introduction of these filters further enhances the Bookham New Focus position as an experienced supplier to the life-sciences market, with multiple tier-1 OEM customers for filters as well as for other products such as optomechanics. The ability to deliver a range of highly differentiated and technically advanced enabling products, like the Clarity(TM) fluorescence filters, for this market will greatly benefit life-sciences OEMs."
With their exceptional signal-to-noise performance, or contrast, Clarity(TM) filters enable rapid fluorescence measurements and higher instrument throughput, and therefore greater productivity for OEMs and their customers.
Bookham New Focus also supplies the life-science industry with low-noise detectors, ultra-stable optomechanics, high-performance optics, precision lasers and OEM photonics subassemblies.
These filters are the latest additions to the Bookham New Focus photonics tool chest. Photonics products manipulate light -- the flow of photons -- just like electronic products manipulate electricity -- the flow of electrons. Photonics represent a key enabling technology in a variety of industries, including semiconductor IC processing, biotechnology, oil well recovery, industrial sensing and telecommunications.
Notes for editors
(1) Optical filters select a specific optical signal or color and filter out undesired colors ('optical noise'). Based on a revolutionary filter technology for ultra-dense, highly complex films, Clarity(TM) filters deliver both high transmission and high blocking in a single filter and are backed by a 5-year warranty* on standard filters. Ultra-dense coatings make Clarity filters insensitive to both heat and humidity, and there is no epoxy in the optical path that can auto-fluoresce or degrade.
(2) Since 1990, Bookham New Focus products have been providing innovative photonics to the semiconductor, defense, industrial, research, life sciences, and telecommunications test-and-measurement industries. The New Focus product portfolio includes tunable lasers, opto-electronics, opto-mechanics, optics, motion-control systems, and advanced photonics tools and subsystems. The company is headquartered in San Jose, California, and has been a division of Bookham since March 8, 2004.
Nice price movement since earnings release yesterday.
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Forbes Wolfe Nanotech Report
Nanosphere Alert
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Dear Subscriber,
After yesterday's close of trading, Veeco preannounced a third
quarter that fell short of projections based upon "weak
industry-wide capital equipment conditions". The company
estimates Q3 2004 revenues will be approximately $93 million,
versus previous guidance of $105-$110 million. While these
revenues are substantially higher than the $63 million in last
year's third quarter, they fall below the $103 million posted in
the recent Q2. Veeco expects third quarter orders of
approximately $80 million, compared to $64 million in Q3 2003
and $125 million in the previous quarter. In July, the company
had issued guidance for $125-130 million in orders.
Veeco highlighted the compound semiconductor business as its
Achilles heel. Sales of the company's light-emitting diode (LED)
equipment fell 70% from the previous quarter, attributed mostly
to spending freezes by Asian customers. On a more positive note,
Veeco's sales to the scientific research market (mostly
nanotechnology research tools) posted a strong 20% seasonal
increase over last quarter.
Veeco now expects a Q3 2004 GAAP loss of $0.04-$0.06 per share
(guidance had been at earnings of $0.06-$0.09 per diluted share).
This compares to Q3 2003 GAAP loss of $0.07 per share and GAAP
earnings of $0.05 per diluted share in the most recent quarter.
For the upcoming fourth quarter, Veeco projects revenues of
$90-$100 million, down from analysts' consensus estimates of
$117.6 million.
Veeco's report of slack chip equipment demand and Asian spending
halts confirms what other semi companies have been saying of
late--and what the markets have been pricing in since the
beginning of the year. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index
(SOXX) now rests more than 31% below its January 2004 high. While
the lack of sales visibility is a real concern, we continue to
advise long-term investors look beyond any near-term industry
hiccups. With a strong franchise in nanotech research tools and
semiconductor metrology, Veeco is well positioned once
capital spending picks up. Its resilient nanotech business
serves as an excellent hedge against any pronounced downturn.
Trading at just 1.7x its low-end estimates for 2004 revenues,
we believe today's price represents an excellent opportunity to
build a position in a core nanotech holding.
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Forbes Wolfe Nanotech Report
Nanosphere Alert
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Dear Subscriber,
Immunicon shares have fallen more than 11% in heavy volume over
the past two days, due to the October 12 lock-up expiration from
the company's April IPO. October 12 was the final day of a
lock-up that prevented company insiders from selling shares on
the open market--and traders sold in advance of insider
transactions. The company announced that CEO Edward Erickson
and Chief Scientific Officer Leon Terstappen adopted 10b5-1
pre-arranged stock sales plans, which allows corporate officers
and directors to create written, pre-arranged stock trading
plans when they are not in possession of material, non-public
information. The executives' plans cover the sale of less than
90,000 IMMC shares.
We first highlighted the risks of the lock-up expiration when we
added IMMC to the Nanosphere and the insider sales are
relatively insignificant. We reiterate our Buy rating.
I will - I'm back after 12 years elsewhere
Been away for awhile - busy moving from NY to TX. I'll start posting again as I receive them.
Me too - I still like the company and see significant upside, just not in the short term. I think JDSU is the better play in this segment right now.
Looks like we made a good call
I think we need to let it settle down and regroup before jumping back in. If it pulls WAY back I might consider a trade, if not, I'll just sit back andwatch for a while.
It certainly was not very clear to me - I'm going to sit back today and see how the market reacts.
Not in my experience - usually see a pull back after the reverse split.
BKHM - Am I reading this correctly - 10:1 reverse split?
http://biz.yahoo.com/pz/040624/59733.html
BKHM - Am I reading this correctly - 10:1 reverse split?
http://biz.yahoo.com/pz/040624/59733.html
Just got a Cramer alert - he's writing an article on JDSU today as a FTTP play.
Keep an eye on BKHM a a sympathy play to JDSU - they tend to move in unison.
BKHM - may be a play again today - pulling back while JDSU is way up - BKHM usually follows JDSU
Yes - SBC will be spending about $5 billion on its FTTP program, should benefit suppliers like JDSU and BKHM, I would also expect GLW to respond well to this news.
Posted by: AV8R
In reply to: None Date:6/22/2004 12:48:42 PM
Post #of 109265
BKHM - anyone in this? Seems to be moving on SBC's FTTP news.
BKHM - HOD, might break $1
BKHM - anyone in this? Seems to be moving on SBC's FTTP news.
JDSU - Cramer alert
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Forbes Wolfe Nanotech Report
Nanosphere Alert
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Dear Subscriber,
We're reiterating our Buy on Accelrys [ACCL] shares, as the
stock's decline has brought the company to bargain price
levels. We previously highlighted Accelrys (formerly
Pharmacopeia) in October 2002 when the company traded for
little more than the cash on its balance sheet. The stock ran up
more than 200% over the next 18 months. Today we see a similar
opportunity, as ACCL's solid cash position (roughly $100 million)
comprises more than half of its market capitalization
($194 million).
ACCL shares have plunged in recent weeks, due in part to
investor confusion surrounding the spin-off of Pharmacopeia
Drug Discovery [PCOP] and the dramatic decline in Accelrys'
reported revenues relating to the switch to subscription
accounting. While the accounting change will depress
recognized revenues in the short term, Accelrys said it
actually expects to book a modest increase in orders in
fiscal 2005 compared to the twelve months ended March 31,
2004 (fiscal 2004). At $7.95 per share, we think the negatives
are priced into the stock. In calendar 2003, Accelrys' software
business generated $85.6 million in revenues. While ACCL's
competitors trade at nearly 4 times Enterprise Value (market
capitalization plus debt, minus cash and equivalents) to Sales,
Accelrys shares are priced at a below-market 1.1 multiple. We
continue to believe Accelrys will benefit in the coming years as
the materials discovery and development process shifts to
sophisticated software simulation. The ability to model and
simulate novel nanoscale phenomenon will become a top priority
for corporations with nanomaterials development efforts. We
continue to rate ACCL shares a Buy for long-term
nanotech investors.
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Forbes Wolfe Nanotech Report
Nanosphere Alert
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Dear Subscriber,
We're upgrading our rating on Harris & Harris Group from a
Sell to a Hold. At $10.90 per share, the stock has
retrenched more than 50% from its 52-week high of $23.60.
We believe the company's shares remain overvalued, trading
at more than 3 times their Net Asset Value of $3.01. But we
expect IPOs from the company's portfolio and a lower cost
of capital from its shelf registration will help boost
TINY's stock price. We now rate Harris & Harris a Hold.
BKHM - looks like it bounced off support to me - missed an opportunity to add a little
GGNS = Sweet
Rumor of an AMAT buyout
NT looks like it's about to make a run past $4
08:00 ET GLW defended by UBS after 7% drop yesterday : UBS believes Corning (GLW) has been unduly hurt by recent negative sentiments for LCD panel vendors such as AUO and CMO. The firm says these issues do not apply to Corning as a LCD glass vendor. The firm expects LCD glass to be in short supply in 2004, exacerbated by Gen 6 production problems at Asahi. Thus Corning should not be hurt by seasonality of the PC end-user market in 2004
Corning to Meet with Investors; Company reaffirms second-quarter guidance
Business Wire - June 14, 2004 17:00
CORNING, N.Y., Jun 14, 2004 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Corning Incorporated's (NYSE:GLW) President and Chief Operating Officer Wendell P. Weeks and Corning Vice Chairman and Chief Financial Officer James B. Flaws will meet with investors in Boston, Mass., on June 15 to discuss the company's progress on its three leadership priorities for 2004: protecting the financial health of the company; improving profitability; and investing in the future.
During the meetings, the company will reiterate its 2004 second-quarter guidance of revenues in the range of $900 million to $950 million, with earnings per share in the range of $0.07 to $0.09, before special items. This estimate is a non-GAAP financial measure and is reconciled on the company's investor relations Web site.
Weeks and Flaws will also tell investors that the company's three near-term growth initiatives: fiber in the local access network, or fiber to the premises; emission control for products in heavy-duty and light-duty diesel engines; and the expanding market for liquid crystal display (LCD) glass each represent a significant opportunity for Corning. "Corning leads the LCD glass industry in technology innovation and is poised to increase its leadership with the transition to larger size glass panels," Weeks will say. "Corning was the first with Generation 5 and Generation 6 glass, and is gearing up to deliver Generation 7 glass," he will remark.
Weeks will add that volume growth for Corning's wholly-owned business is expected to exceed 50 percent this year, outpacing general industry growth. "Growth is being driven primarily by the industry's migration to larger generation glass and the continued penetration to LCD monitors for the desktop computer market," Weeks will say.
As part of the meetings in Boston, Corning will be hosting a luncheon at 12:30 p.m. EST on June 15 at the Merrill Lynch & Co. office at One Financial Center, Boston. To reserve a seat at the luncheon, please contact Corning's investor relations department by calling 607-974-8764. A copy of the materials distributed to investors during the meetings will be available on Corning's Web site by accessing the investor relations events calendar at http://www.corning.com/investor_relations.
In addition to these meetings in Boston, Flaws will present at the 2004 Wachovia Securities Nantucket Equity Conference on June 22 in Nantucket, Mass. Flaws' presentation will be webcast live at 2:30 p.m. EST. It will be available on Corning Incorporated's Web site by accessing the 2004 Wachovia Securities Nantucket Equity Conference link on the IR events calendar.
Presentation of Information in this News Release
Corning's earnings estimate for the first quarter is a non-GAAP financial measure as it excludes any potential gains or losses arising from previously announced restructuring actions, any further adjustments to the asbestos settlement reserve required by movement in Cornings stock price and income from discontinued operations. The company believes presenting earnings estimates that exclude these items is helpful in understanding Corning's operating results. Corning provides a reconciliation of the non-GAAP earnings per share estimate to GAAP earnings per share estimate on our Investor Relations Web Site at www.corning.com/investor_relations.