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IDK , IMO the interest rate cut could push us north.
Love the spike in SP, would like to see way more volume.
Doesn't look like the shorts are covering , YET . Fingers crossed for more volume and extended rally.
I don't think a buy out at $15 would be approved.
IF management sees AVID is on course to fill capacity over 2 years they should be able to plot that chart and relate it to share price. If they see could increase in fill 50 percent of current capacity in three to four of the upcoming Q's they can do the math. A 120 million dollar increase with 30 percent gross margins 40 MM EBITA. Approximately increase EPS by .75. with. 20PE that alone would add $15.00 per share. I think we are 1 to 2 years out from a buyout. In the meantime coming reduced interest rates will put the wind to our backs for once pipeline products are waiting on NDA.s . HALO needs more product depending if we capitalized on teh Catalent situation.
Should be an enjoyable ride for the immediate future.
More to the point . What do the investors know that we do not.
Fed's expected to lower borrowing cost as softening unemployment figures open door to ;lower rates.
Looks like conditions are improving for AVID as this will encourage possible clients get off the sidelines.
Seems things are finally moving in the right direction in several fronts.
Company should PR any large contracts, unless the client wants anonymity. Especially if it is in the Viral vector sector.
Should also if applicable increase guidance numbers.
Wish it would so I could sell my puts, Then sit back with my core holdings and watch it climb over the next 4 Quarters.
After hours volume 332,665, up .5 to 9.70.
Will we open at 9.7 or 9.12
Even with the cluster of ineptitude the stock is moving up.
Somewhere in this pile of dung they are seeing diamonds.
I still contend the 7 or so late stage drugs in the pipeline we have reason for optimism.
I don't think they are looking that hard for new business. I think they have there eggs in the basket of several late stage drugs they have in the pipeline.
I believe the insider buys were not to just show a good faith with shareholders.
I would have and did bet on this stock assuming teh expansion was directly related to new business looking for a home. ever would have though they had some build it and they will come theory. Same old story everybody is getting paid and shareholders are getting abused.
Unbelievable,I expected this from TCLN and PPHM, there is no excuse for this disgusting malpractice for a straight manufacturing play. This is crap. People need to be fired in mass. This negligence is unacceptable. To bad this is in the USA in China these morons would be jailed and IMO they deserve it. Not to mention the horrendous execution of sales for the newly expanded opportunities these nitwits couldn't even get out in front to fill capacity and bring on substantial business.
Margins, excess capacity. Backlog, revs from new opportunities in viral vecter.vector.
Momentum.
Are they CDMO client?
Recent insider buys look sweet here. It is reassuring for management to show support. Never happened with TCLN/PPHM.
Any word on Bavi.. Look how many years the quest for the holy grail continues. The price tag on that was a death knell.
The Tea leaves would indicate a solid Q coming. Fingers crossed on that and a Hail Mary.
Testing the $7's, let's see if it holds.
How was the turnout?
Nasdaq after hours has CDMO 6.62 on 2 million shares traded.
I promised myself I was not going to purchase anymore of this stock, however, I pulled the trigger at 5.52. Does not make sense to see the SP dropping to these levels. Even Corleone has taken a 50% haircut on his purchase at 11.00.
Would love to see an announcement with projected rev's or a purchase order from the collaboration with CIRM
The future guidance and vanilla 2024 Projections put a damper on the stock. Now that all the options have vested and the tax liability has been recorded watch us run.
Should have several beats in the next 3 Q.s.
In reality it benefits these guys for the share price to go lower just as options come vested, reducing their tax burden. Then real numbers beat substantially and the SP pops . The tax savings would be significant. So the next 4 Q's we beat the street , crush it and everybody gets a nice payday. Maybe explains the low projections 145 to 190 MM when we were hearing 270 and 450 million in posible rev's with expansions completed. Seems conspicuously low to project 145 to 190 million rev's for 2024. Also the Q sales exceed that. Now that the expansions are completed our rev growth yoy is projected to drop to 10% when were currently growing at 2 to 3 times that without it. Doesn't make sense.
I was wondering if that is behind the recent developments. Are we setting someone up to get us on the cheap.
Big cash burn I assume was related to the recent expansions; they need to sell that.
Projecting rev's flat to 10 percent increase. Not the growth I would hope for after investment to expand. It is projected to be slower than our previous preconstruction SP appreciation.
That would be sweet, it would also put that article on SA from the moron who though sales would be slumping I guess. He wrote us up as if we didn't have guidance going forward. He did not even do enough research to see the backlog and sales growth. Never mentioned the expansion that would result in immediate return as well. He slammed us because the future was murky. What crap.
Halo will be a double edge we will put up increased income to stay pace with their growth. The numbers should be great for the bottom line.
Question is does it put too much of our revenue with a single customer.
Will wall street hold that against us?
Has Nick diversified our customer base while HALO increases rev's.
Looks like a solid Q for HALO.
If we are monetizing our new expanded capacity, we will be testing higher high's for the foreseeable future. Hopefully followed by a sweet M&A where we get bought out at a premium.
The next Q should have reduced capital spending on expansion increased rev's and improved margins.
Maybe they saw CDMO and thought it may be the better company.
We went down in sympathy for CTLT and we did a healthy consolidation. I think we could see some traction into the low twenties.
I pulled the trigger on the dip at 14.25, 13.25, and 12.90 and the april 21 options are looking way better than just last week. Come on CDMO find a buyer at $47.00 or above.
That would be entertaining, Frootie was always good for an interesting post.
Raging Bull days revisited.
'Sweetheart' drug deals with China are a clear danger to America:
Sen. Hawley control over the global drug supply chain poses a national security threat as drug shortages continued to rise domestically, Sen. Josh Hawley sa
You are correct my bad, the options expire 4/21.
I have 17.50 options with April 14th, need to get to 20.40 to cover the strike cost.
Get em while they're hot , whipping and driving down the stretch.
Hope the buy out numbers are in the 40's, if not wait another year.
This guy should be flipping burgers , He sucks as an analyst.
Added 2500 shares @13.84
If they fast track to a phase 2/3 combination registrational trial we get a milestone check.
Blackrock always had the inside scoop on TCLN/AVID. They dumped out just before the big debacle of Bavi. Now they are in I would follow the money.
Love the way that is structured, From the days management was all in it for themselves to a Company where the power players are aligned with shareholders.
Look how this is coming down. NIck was given the road map , build out the expansion get it done on time and done well. Cash in on those efforts along with long shareholders for the next 3 years.
IMO AVID will be a target of a take over before Nick cashes in on the third year.
AVID is projecting 350 MM when the expansions are running full speed. Question is how long will it take to get there. Margins were gross 30% before expansion. They are installing the latest and greatest as far as process equipment I would hope that would increase the margin as well. That would be a good place to sell out from. If not get ready for next phase of expansion. NIck seems to always push growth. I'm OK with that.
I put in three buys one at 14.25, 13.25 and 12.90.
See if they fill today.