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wishing everyone best of luck
I'm retiring from chasing stocks and etf's up and down, made some good money and lost some good money over the years, its time to reset and focus on other aspects of life, traveling, family, etc.
I'll sign off with a parting link, like the gold rush times, so much to be said, good luck!
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pretzel-shop-worker-committed-1-201647808.html
energy making nice moves of late
crude/NG keeping that inflation stoked
when I look on youtube
I see endless videos of stock traders analyzing the next market move, I have to guess 99% have never worked on wall st, either this is the new normal in world of ctl+p ,, or there;s going to be a big wash coming that will force a generation of 'expert' traders to quit their keyboard profession and return to a normal productive job, but not before giving all their money back to the wall st machine lol
nvda weee the algo paid 520 a/h high
then
M
NKE
DKS
FL
been out of holding long positions for about a month in everything including 401k
just can't participate any longer with the misleading inflation data, to say inflation is around 3-4%, is astounding, how about the basics like bread, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000702111, or canned veggies https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCU311421311421, so many others
anyways, sitting out saving cash for the hyper inflation days,gonna need it, I suspect we see that before any deflation
the slowdown is here
but not for the top
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1691078722089009152/photo/1
yes more inflation
like liquidity, I suspect markets like inflation, asset price elevation
black gold baby! will wait for Drip 5 or below lol
yep things get more interesting by the month
this was a good interview
I hear you on crude but remember markets only care about asset inflation, they can't let deflation set in , what better way to keep inflation up than to crude, if crude weekly chart mimics what SP did on the wedge breakout, 100+ is coming. who knows
anyways, i'closed my 1 day Drip starter for 35 dollar loss, no plans to re-enter anytime soon, only able to trade pre-market today, never get best prices but managed to pick a handful of u 3.91, tactically chasing the 6/2 7.77 gap
was being sarc/ on crude :>
maybe final crude pumps with global slowdown, but always geopolitical risks so shorting energy at this stage is too risky for me, Boil ripping
get ready for another round of food inflation, price stability policies working like a charm, make sure the pantry is stocked up
NG and crude ripping higher
seems inflation will be under control :)
drip exit, good thing it was small under 100 stop loss, will not be re-entering, anytime soon, no telling of crude rips to 150 wee
looks like the brrrrr machines kicked in later in the day
I did manage to sell a handful of u 3.65s at 4.90 before departing for the day
and got bull whipped on a Drip starter, with 10.82 entry, but was very small and will give it back to the market tomorrow
win win for banks
step right up, everyone wins!
a quick look at xbi weekly, with the break below 80, it seems the pivot could be 75, fib golden ratio retrace
but we can never guess what the machines will do, no doubt I will be back in labu soon
closed labu starter position with xbi invalidating my chart idea
will wait for more clarity this week
correction followed by new highs?
I think vix eventually goes extinct for many reasons, perhaps the last hooray coming for a vix trade event, then no plans to ever trade it again. if we do get a correction, a uvix target could be anywhere from the most prevalent gap 7.77 on 6/2/23 to .23 fib 9.62 before the casket is rolled out
also think a financial reset will not be a crash, rather a new monetary system, just scroll thru some stuff here to digest what planners and money handlers are thinking
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2022/03/Future-of-inflation-partIII-Agarwal-kimball
back to xbi/labu, I see bulls sitting in the gates waiting for the doors to open, started entries on Thu/Fri, have more to add in coming weeks
weekly/daily
been on chart watch last 2-3 weeks
and digesting other stuff when possible, but overall, longer term metrics and mean reversion usually prevail in time /imo.
on the bull side, I'm liking Labu here, xbi nice pennant working structure and bottom of linear channel, so bought last 2 days sitting at 5.44, will see if the flag plays out.
yup
bit of turbulence. lod right on 9ma target, I think coal price cold peak around 8-8.50 watching the evolving chart data
.
,
I did exchange a 3.48 happy meal this morning for a 4.76 hot apple pie
with inflation, i suppose happy meals will increase in price over time
and exchanged the one apple pie for labu coal starter
got many happy meals to exchange while in turbulence
well, to sum up
This is your captain speaking
Please check your overhead bins are secure
We expect some turbulence while cruising above 4k feet
Once we clear turbulence, we are clear for a soft landing
look at Wed ADP forecast
https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar
only a forecast but wow if true
weekly Mt Everest wedge
3.62s today added to checkout cart
rates
The average credit card interest rate in America today is 24.24%
https://www.lendingtree.com/credit-cards/average-credit-card-interest-rate-in-america/
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TERMCBCCALLNS
a powder keg with a long fuse
starting to shift funds into RIETs / 401k
looking ahead when the weight of rates on econ becomes too heavy
markets on permanent up plateau, fake pullback program code caught virus
markets will keep going until something breaks, then they'll rally more for the forecast Fed fix of that break (print brrrrrr..)
ha
repo man coming lol
good thing I have always owned paid off cars (used)
last Monday, ATT/Verizon were getting wacked -6-7%, looked at generic p/e's on y/f
last week (ttm) p/e's
ATT/Verizon around 6
Nvda - 249
so moved 1/4 401k into Vz on the big selloff, I'll take the low p/e's for long term investments
otherwise, nothing new, watching labu /xbi Fibs for when Fed folds on rates timing uncertain
added some Vz on close in 401k
will hold a few years
ATT & Verizon stocks part II
the market is all the sudden worried about lead covered cables and these bellwether telecom stocks are crashing, and the market is not worried about anything at all in the macro universe full stop. lead my ars, I've got a lot of lead bridges to sell :)
nvda
from y/f
enterprise value/ebitda
nvda 173
appl 24
msft 25
i do not trade it long or short
take a look at ATT & Verizon stocks
telling the R word
if demand destruction = deflation
and deflation = pricing power decline
and pricing power decline = reduced ebitda
and reduced ebitda = earnings contraction
and earnings contraction = multiples contraction
and multiples contraction = mean reversion
and mean reversion =
Current S&P 500 PE Ratio: 26.08 -0.03 (-0.10%)
4:00 PM EDT, Fri Jul 14
Mean: 16.02
Median: 14.93
a possibility, well have to see, meanwhile I moved out of US stocks and into EMs and US REITs
exactly
fake pullbacks, JP needs to dim the casino lights temporarily as the frenzy reaches peak mania, and the slot machines need refilled with cash. anyways, watching just about everything in the last month and positioning accordingly
easy money
load up on those uvx shorts
BTFP
we should have known, it was clandestine code Buy The F'n Party lol
on a a simple guess, could it be banks are tapping the BTFP facility for loans and turning around and buying assets(stocks), is it a banking debt function to offset loans with assets? I know nothing about banking, and think I know little matters in markets except Fed facilities and balance sheets
if that's the case, BTFP runs until what Mar2024? the party is just getting started
eyes o n labu/xbi over next few months
Key Events This Busy Week: 9 Fed Speakers
soon it will be all Fed speakers everyday all day, keep that bubble from deflating
crossed my mind why we call it a stock market,should be called derivatives liquidity market, wonder how many actually get a stock certificate haha
3 Fed speakers on Monday calendar
just in time for Wed CPI
going to be talking about inflation for years to come
unless the Fed gets real about it, imo
they say inflation is caused by supply chain issues, maybe so, I guess supply chains slow down when nobody wants to work because the free print press, what a mess