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My goodness this thread must be real important to Brinker. I posted a message observing that "Burk" has been hammering private posters who are critical of the public figure Brinker for over 5 years and the post was removed.
It seems that someone can't stand the truth around here? Is it Ihub's policy to allow trashing of private individuals and remove posts critical of public figures?
Where does one lodge a complaint concerning censorship?
Larry,
It is beneath your dignity to try to hide the truth here. You do want the facts so that anyone new to Brinker can judge the COMPLETE record don't you? You do know that Brinker is now HIDING his QQQ call don't you? You realize that Brinker told people in an urgent bulletin below to take up to 1/2 of the money he removed from the market (IN MODEL PORTFOLIOS) to buy QQQs in the 80s. He held that position all the way down below 20.00 and has now hidden the call. Anyone who followed Brinker's advice of selling funds from the portfolios and buying QQQs with the proceeds according to his URGENT bulletin has vastly underperformed what Brinker dishonestly claims as performance.
It is a matter of honesty and character Larry. With real money one can only invest the same money once without selling. In Brinker's world he can tell you to sell from a portfolio, buy QQQs with half of that money and then pretend that second advice did not occur. That is why the only real way to look at Brinker's performance is to look at the wrap fund, the BJ group. That performance tracks real money and doesn't allow the dishonest tact of leaving out advice for 1/3 of an entire portfolio that does not work out.
"Marketimer is projecting a significan countertrend rally which is expected to be led by the Nasdaq 100 index. We expect this rally to persist over a period of approximately 2 to 4 months and to generate Nasdaq gains in excess of 20% from the vicinity of the recently established closing low point.
We view this projected Nasdaq rally as a significant trading OPPORTUNITY for marketimer subscribers seeking potential short term capital gains. Our clear vehicle of choice for this OPPORTUNITY is the Nasdaq 100, which is traded on the American Exchange under the ticker symbol QQQ.
We recommend marketimer subscribers with AGGRESSIVE objectives invest 30% to 50% of existing CASH RESERVES in the QQQ shares to exploit this OPPORTUNITY. Also we recommend subscribers with CONSERVATIVE investment objectives invest 20 to 30% of existing CASH RESERVES in the QQQ shares to take advantage of this OPPORTUNITY.
Marketimer will provide follow up guidance for this short-term opportunity in regular monthly editions and if necessary in follow-up bulletins.
We recommend marketimer subscribers interested in taking advantage of this recommendation to ACT IMMEDIATELY."
http://www.suite101.com/files/topics/270/files/Brinker2000-QQQ-Bulletin.jpg
If you can show me Larry where Brinker issued a sell for the QQQs purchased ion the above advice with money taken from the model portfolios in Jan 2000, I will change my stance. Lacking that, you are simply being party to a distortion of the Brinker record. Brinker is good at that under his aliases on the net and on the radio. He would be proud of you.
Larry, Why are you so anxious to decieve people wanting to investigate Brinker? You are trying to hide the most important information they should know.
You claim:
"I think every one knows about Bob Brinker's bad advice on QQQ."
Please show me one public document from Brinker other than the BJ group performance that shows Brinker's QQQ advice from October 2000 for up to 1/3 of AN ENTIRE EQUITY PORTFOLIO, Larry.
I have been over his site with a fine tooth comb and one can only conclde that the guy you are hyping here is hiding this call. Don't you want the truth? Why do you want to hide arguably the largest and most important and most HIDDEN by Brinker call that he ever made? After all you, Brinker and a host of others are all the time touting the few times he was right.
You never talk about his bear hunt in the late 80s and early 90s that was TOTALLY WRONG. Now you don't want a link to this advice that you and Brinker want to hide that went out to EVERY SUBSCRIBER in an URGENT BULLETIN when the QQQS were trading in the 80s. He held this position to this very day--though you cannot find it anywhere now.
""Marketimer is projecting a significan countertrend rally which is expected to be led by the Nasdaq 100 index. We expect this rally to persist over a period of approximately 2 to 4 months and to generate Nasdaq gains in excess of 20% from the vicinity of the recently established closing low point.
We view this projected Nasdaq rally as a significant trading OPPORTUNITY for marketimer subscribers seeking potential short term capital gains. Our clear vehicle of choice for this OPPORTUNITY is the Nasdaq 100, which is traded on the American Exchange under the ticker symbol QQQ.
We recommend marketimer subscribers with AGGRESSIVE objectives invest 30% to 50% of existing CASH RESERVES in the QQQ shares to exploit this OPPORTUNITY. Also we recommend subscribers with CONSERVATIVE investment objectives invest 20 to 30% of existing CASH RESERVES in the QQQ shares to take advantage of this OPPORTUNITY.
Marketimer will provide follow up guidance for this short-term opportunity in regular monthly editions and if necessary in follow-up bulletins.
We recommend marketimer subscribers interested in taking advantage of this recommendation to ACT IMMEDIATELY."
Does it look less dishonest and less threatening to you when you can't read it off the actual paper from the link Larry?
That's fine Larry, but what really messes up that table that Brinker would like to sell newsletters from is that he told people to take up to 1/3 of a portfolio from selling model portfolio holdings and buy QQQS in the 80s. He held them all the way down. For anyone following his advice, they could not use those same monies they already had in the QQQs to pretend to invest the same money in March 2003. Brinker added QQQs in the 20s to each portfolio in that move to hide the 1/3 of a portfolio of QQQs he had sucked many subscribers in when they were trading in the 80s.
You can't invest the same money twice Larry. That makes your table totally meaningless and dishonest for those really wanting to know what happens if they follow Brinker's advice. Here's what he sent that you left out.
http://www.suite101.com/files/topics/270/files/Brinker2000-QQQ-Bulletin.jpg
Larry, with your irrelevant conclusions based on what you or someone else did with Brinker's advice you make my point.
To claim that this advice based on using the same CASH RESERVES that Brinker raised in Jan 2000, doesn't count proves the bogus nature of your work here.
"Marketimer is projecting a significant countertrend rally which is expected to be led by the Nasdaq 100 index. We expect this rally to persist over a period of approximately 2 to 4 months and to generate Nasdaq gains in excess of 20% from the vicinity of the recently established closing low point.
We view this projected Nasdaq rally as a significant trading OPPORTUNITY for marketimer subscribers seeking potential short term capital gains. Our clear vehicle of choice for this OPPORTUNITY is the Nasdaq 100, which is traded on the American Exchange under the ticker symbol QQQ.
We recommend marketimer subscribers with AGGRESSIVE objectives invest 30% to 50% of existing CASH RESERVES in the QQQ shares to exploit this OPPORTUNITY. Also we recommend subscribers with CONSERVATIVE investment objectives invest 20 to 30% of existing CASH RESERVES in the QQQ shares to take advantage of this OPPORTUNITY.
Marketimer will provide follow up guidance for this short-term opportunity in regular monthly editions and if necessary in follow-up bulletins.
We recommend marketimer subscribers interested in taking advantage of this recommendation to ACT IMMEDIATELY."
http://www.suite101.com/files/topics/270/files/Brinker2000-QQQ-Bulletin.jpg
Because you didn't understand the clarity of the advice above or chose for any reason not to follow it does not change the fact he gave the advice for the same money he took out of the market in Jan 2000. Thus he could not be given credit for investing these same monies in March 2003 that he recommended using in Oct 2000.
Because you didn't take his advice and I said he was dangerous and it was a stupid recommendation, doesn't change the fact he made the advice and people trusting him (goobers and geezers these days) took the advice.
One can readily see that he was anxious for all subscribers to take advantage of that bulletin. While Larry wants to hide it, the wrap fund that Brinker advises under the banner of the BJ group did the exact same thing as he promoted in the newsletter. The difference of couse was that it was "REAL MONEY" and Larry and Bob Brinker could not hide the results by saying "We didn't include the QQQs in our performance"--You see in the link below the BJ group deals in "REAL MONEY"
http://www.suite101.com/files/topics/270/files/BJGroup2000-QQQ-Memo.jpg
So when you judge Brinker's performance the most obvious benchmark is how he did in PUBLISHED data using ALL OF HIS ADVICE investing REAL MONEY. There is only ONE SINGLE document in the whole history of Brinker that I am aware of that shows his performance in such conditions.
Thus here is the result you get when you take ALL OF BRINKER"S advice with REAL MONEY.
http://www.suite101.com/files/mysites/Br...
You see you can't spin and hide performance when he uses REAL MONEY Larry. Sorry but all else is simply opinion or spin--totally useless to the serious investor.
Larry incredibly you claimed:
"2)I guess your hang up is that you feel Bob meant that excess
cash in Models #1,#2,#3 should also be used for the QQQ.
(3)But this does not make sense to me.
(4)Why?
(5)Because Bob Brinker recommended stocks and funds outside
the Models in the past. examples UTEK,MSFT,KMAG,STII,TEFQX
see the IBOX(title) for the whole list."
Now Larry where did the cash reserves come from in the model portfolios? Do you think Brinker was talking only about cash reserves from selling MSFT and VOD when he sent this letter to every subscriber telling them to invest up to half of the CASH RESERVES they had raised in Jan. 2000 on the QQQs?
Larry please show where anyone reading the following URGENT QQQ BULLETIN would not have used money they took out of the porfolios to buy QQQs. Please show me where it says to only use money in "cash reserves" raised from sources outside model portfolios. Your latest list proves you are not being honest about Brinker's biggest screwup.
"Marketimer is projecting a significant countertrend rally which is expected to be led by the Nasdaq 100 index. We expect this rally to persist over a period of approximately 2 to 4 months and to generate Nasdaq gains in excess of 20% from the vicinity of the recently established closing low point.
We view this projected Nasdaq rally as a significant trading OPPORTUNITY for marketimer subscribers seeking potential short term capital gains. Our clear vehicle of choice for this OPPORTUNITY is the Nasdaq 100, which is traded on the American Exchange under the ticker symbol QQQ.
We recommend marketimer subscribers with AGGRESSIVE objectives invest 30% to 50% of existing CASH RESERVES in the QQQ shares to exploit this OPPORTUNITY. Also we recommend subscribers with CONSERVATIVE investment objectives invest 20 to 30% of existing CASH RESERVES in the QQQ shares to take advantage of this OPPORTUNITY.
Marketimer will provide follow up guidance for this short-term opportunity in regular monthly editions and if necessary in follow-up bulletins.
We recommend marketimer subscribers interested in taking advantage of this recommendation to ACT IMMEDIATELY."
http://www.suite101.com/files/topics/270/files/Brinker2000-QQQ-Bulletin.jpg
You depend on Junk Science and an untrustworthy guru
Well Larry, that is quite a stretch in credibility. As you know Richard Palm is on record as saying that it is dishonest for Brinker not to include his QQQ call in performance numbers. Why don't we let people decide if the following recommendation sent to every subscriber as an urgent bulletin-truly a one of a kind event-- should be ignored in Brinker's reporting as you and he are trying to do?
"Marketimer is projecting a significant countertrend rally which is expected to be led by the Nasdaq 100 index. We expect this rally to persist over a period of approximately 2 to 4 months and to generate Nasdaq gains in excess of 20% from the vicinity of the recently established closing low point.
We view this projected Nasdaq rally as a significant trading OPPORTUNITY for marketimer subscribers seeking potential short term capital gains. Our clear vehicle of choice for this OPPORTUNITY is the Nasdaq 100, which is traded on the American Exchange under the ticker symbol QQQ.
We recommend marketimer subscribers with AGGRESSIVE objectives invest 30% to 50% of existing CASH RESERVES in the QQQ shares to exploit this OPPORTUNITY. Also we recommend subscribers with CONSERVATIVE investment objectives invest 20 to 30% of existing CASH RESERVES in the QQQ shares to take advantage of this OPPORTUNITY.
Marketimer will provide follow up guidance for this short-term opportunity in regular monthly editions and if necessary in follow-up bulletins.
We recommend marketimer subscribers interested in taking advantage of this recommendation to ACT IMMEDIATELY."
http://www.suite101.com/files/topics/270/files/Brinker2000-QQQ-Bulletin.jpg
One can readily see that he was anxious for all subscribers to take advantage of that bulletin. While Larry wants to hide it, the wrap fund that Brinker advises under the banner of the BJ group did the exact same thing as he promoted in the newsletter. The difference of couse was that it was "REAL MONEY" and Larry and Bob Brinker could not hide the results by saying "We didn't include the QQQs in our performance"--You see in the link below the BJ group deals in "REAL MONEY"
http://www.suite101.com/files/topics/270/files/BJGroup2000-QQQ-Memo.jpg
So when you judge Brinker's performance the most obvious benchmark is how he did in PUBLISHED data using ALL OF HIS ADVICE investing REAL MONEY. There is only ONE SINGLE document in the whole history of Brinker that I am aware of that shows his performance in such conditions.
Thus here is the result you get when you take ALL OF BRINKER"S advice with REAL MONEY.
http://www.suite101.com/files/mysites/Br...
I am sure you wanted such accurate documented information Larry. If you do not agree please show me Brinker's published data including the QQQ recommendation in any of his portfolios outside of the BJ group.
I know you don't want to fool anyone into thinking that he has published such data. I know that you are aware that he has hidden the effects ot the QQQ bulletin listed above in all of his performance numbers. I am certain you see that as dishonest after having read the bulletin.
I am glad you help you set the record straight. When you take all of Brinker's advice and use his benchmark--notice that from March 2000 through March 2004, he underperformed. Hardly great news for a marketimer in the worst bear in many years huh? LOL
I see on another thread you were encouraging people to post performance for Brinker on your site. Ok, I'll help you out with the only performance numbers ever given for Brinker's advice using "REAL MONEY".
We finally have some REAL Brinker performance numbers.
The problem with Brinker discussions is that so often like his words and his newsletter recomendation, there are multiple interpretations and no way to measure his performance with real money being invested. Now finally we have some real performance numbers on Brinker's ability put to the test in the BJ group portfolio. GE recently put out some performance numbers for his BJ group aggressive Portfolio which seems to mirror what Brinker calls portfolio I in his newsletter. Of course the BJ group invests real money according to Bob's advice. Let's see how that went.
http://www.suite101.com/files/mysites/Brinker/BJG_P1.jpg
These are extrapolations from the chart and they may vary slightly from the actual dollar amounts but came within a fraction when I began in 98 and extroplated the dots through 2004.
1) Sept 98---March 99
Brinker Aggressive BJ Portfolio + 28%
Benchmark porfolio + 28%
2) March 99 thru March 2000
Brinker's BJ portfolio + 28%
Benchmark portfolio + 17%
3) March 2000 thru March 2001
Brinker BJ Porfolio (28%)
Benchmark Porfolio (18%)
4) March 2001 thru March 2002
Brinker BJ Portfolio (4%)
Benchmark Porfolio 0 (flat)
5) March 2002 thru March 2003
Brinker BJ portfolio (10.2%)
Benchmark portfolio ( 20%)
6) March 2003 thru March 2004
Brinker BJ porfolio 35%
Benchmark Porfolio 45%
An interesting period is the 4 yr period between the beginning of the bear market and 2004.
7) March 2000 thru March 2004
Brinker's BJ portfolio (9.6%)
Benchmark portfolio (8.0%)
Of the 6 consecutive time frames selected the following occured.
On one occasion the results were the same
One one occasion Brinker's BJ portfolio gained substantially more than the benchmark
On one occasion the the benchmark gained substantially more than Brinker's BJ portfolio.
On two occasions Brinker's BJ portfolio lost more than the benchmark.
On one occasion the Benchmark lost more than Brinker's portfolio
If you begin counting at the beginning of 99--the last year of the bull market, Brinker beats the benchmark with annual gains of 3.4% to 2.8% for the benchmark for a _+0.6% advantage.
If you begin counting at the beginning of the bear market in 2000, for the 4 year period Brinker trails the benchmark by 1.6% losing 1.6% more than the benchmark from the beginning of the bear through March 04.
Thus Brinker's outperformance of the buy and hold index of 0.6% was primarily due to a superior performance in 99-the last year of the bull market. If you compare the performance since the beginning of the bear market March 2000, Brinker"s BJ portfolio using his timing, underperforms the buy and hold index.
It seems quite odd that the fractional outperformance Brinker shows in the only performance figures I've ever seen on the man that involves real money, is based on an outsized performance during a few months of the last bull market, soon to be off the 5 yr charts. It is very significant, given Brinker's claims about marketiming that those lines so closely mirror each other and in fact Brinker's management lags the buy and hold benchmark since the beginning of the bear in early 2000.
Looks like you are back to posting to yourself. If I were you I would vote early and often....nobody would know and nobody would care. Good luck.
Having watched the Silicon Investor threads, it would seem that almost none of the former staunch Brinker supporters took his advice to go all in back in March 03.
Did you take Brinker's advice to move the 1/3 or more of a portfolio into the Market on March 11, 2003? Who has posted then or in the subsequent time that they did so that has a history of following Brinker?
It would stand to reason it seems to establish if anybody took the March advice as given, before asking if they are going to continue acting on it.