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Ding!! Ding!! Ding!! who says they don't ring the
bell at the top?
Even lower lows coming for MS? Formation is bearish and what is going on behind the scenes is even more bearish. Have you noticed the astronomical position MS has in the repo market? most active participant since Lehman Brothers.we remember how that repo market action works don't we? they are booked as sales to inflate earnings.worked well for Lehman didn't it? That's the best Morgan Stanley can do is that risky repo market action? (JMHO) do your own due diilligence!! Chubbie
seeing a lot of negative divergences, all good factored in, market is most likely to disappoint ST. (eom)
SPX is approaching a sell, I just went short, perhaps a little premature, due to the Tooth Fairy accounting being released Thursday afternoon, But I'll hold for at least this week. (JMHO) Chubbie
Its the same thing, http://www.efunda.com/math/leastsquares/leastsquares.cfm
here's a good introduction to regression analysis,
If that is what you are trying to do, you have to remember that all errors (MSE Or SSE) when added up equal zero. They have to.
I think what you are trying to do is mean reversion but, this 300-400 point stuff you are talking about makes no sense in either model.
could you show me the math for that. ) are you trying to do a regression model?
you're going to have to wait until December for the the final act of that tragidy, and the market low for the year. (JMHO)
I'd wait until next week before jumping in to positions, it migjht get kind of bloody. (JMHO) Chubbie
keep yer eye on the death cross, http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p95294966205
it was all short covering, they jammed 'em cuz they couldn't push stocks below the bullish percent line.
most bullish thing for the market now is to keep 1254 as support, it attacks that bullish support line again, i wouldn't want to be long. The first time it held as it usually does on the first assault but no way would I bet on that on a second go round. (JMHO) CHUBBIE
incidentally, I believe the failure to successfully puncture the bullish support line (blue line) is what led to that ballistic short covering rally.The swiss franc trade also reversed when the bullish support line could not be punctured.
agree with the couple weeks as well(barring Europe)the downgrade selling was classic drama queen action, what happened was we slightly went below the bullish support line and established a new one, but i am willing to bet we break it and test the 1050 level, http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$SPX,P&listNum=
ya, gotta keep in mind the 200 is at 1286, we're deep in the bear with a lot of chart damage(plenty of bag holders), even after a few weeks of rally, this market will still have some doubters. If it looks like Europe heads for its Minsky moment, they'll dump huge. don't forget the EU is now 1/3 of world GDP. (JMHO) Chubbie
went long XLF and Bac, this should do it for the selling, way overdone. (JMHO) CHUBBIE
OT:Hmmm, this is interesting. S&P downgrades U.S. debt after the bell on Friday, then upgrades the XLF on Saturday, I just read the note. I remember back in the day when everybody was pumping sleazy bulletin board stocks on the net, stock promoters would have the company release news on the weekend so they could pump the stock all weekend on message boards, attract buyers, then dump at the open Monday morning. S&P is doing the same thing basically, they release the news after the bell on Friday and give investors all weekend to work themselves into a panic. Might be the perfect day tomorow tro grab some shares thanks to S&P, might be arversal day before the FED. (JMHO) CHUBBIE
couldn't wait any longer shorted klac .91,in the process of buying DIA puts as well. (JMHO) CHUBBIE
volume came in double the norm, while the broad market saw a pole vault rally in the futures bfore tonight's address. bad sign for GS. (JMHO) CHUBBIE
low volume breakdown, might be a beartrap if we get a strong close,
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=GS,P&listNum=
Blowoff top time? EOM)
The catch phrase in financial journalism will be
"impossible trinity".as we closely watch Asia and Latin America battle the trilemma. Paul Krugman will be on financial TV every other day, just like Nouriel Roubini was after the Fall 2008 crash. (JMHO) CHUBBIE
Here's my prediction for 2011,
The time is approaching to short China in a big way. (JMHO) CHUBBIE
Merry Christmas!! time for new years predictions!(eom)
gotta watch now and see how political all this gets,market can ill afford currency wars. (JMHO) CHUBBIE
china news=dollar bounce flight to quality. China, doesn't want to appear to be pushed into raising remnibi by U.S.,but rate change does it by default, higher arte is perceived by market as stronger currency. (JMHO) CHUBBIE
conventional wisdom says don't fight the fed,but some of the charts I've been looking at say its time for a pullback. (JMHO) CHUBBIE
terrible, every time it hits the bearish resistance line it is turned back, http://stockcharts.com/webcgi/Pnf.asp?S=$BKX
the confirmation came a year and a half ago. EOM)
going to bounce big, return of flight to quality. perhaps as soon as today on jobs report. Unemployment of primary importance, employers know they hold all the cards and that labor is the largest component in their variable costs, so why would they hire on the full time level? part time jobs with no benefits is the new trend and it will last at least a few years until dmeand catches up with supply.. (JMHO) CHUBBIE
ditched rimm, out of favor, been extremely bullish on banks but am consideriong lightening up on them. Action isn't as great a speople say it is, i don't think we break 1130 on this go round, could be in for a nice short for a few weeks. I'll see when it hits that level. (JMHO) CHUBBIE