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In the past couple weeks GXII has averaged 250,000 shares traded per day. It's most recent price was US$10.12. Since the joint announcement between NioCorp and GXII, there have been millions of shares traded at a premium to the redemption price. Much of this has been institutional trading. Why would institutions pay $10 and change for shares they are simply going to redeem for $10? This seems to be your position, however your post was lacking any rationale to support your prediction, so one can't be sure. I'd love to hear your rationale given these facts.
Page 32 of the 10-Q was what I was looking for. As of yesterday, the number of fully diluted NioCorp common shares was 310,955,154. Combined with the 596,549,204 shares that "may be issuable in connection with the Transactions", that puts the fully diluted number at 907,504,358. The actual number will be less than this for a host of reasons, but there's the upper bound. This is a little more than I'd hoped for, but I'm still in favor of this deal. I suspect our earnings number will be significantly improved from the last FS to offset some of the dilution. I also think the price action and volume in GXII in recent weeks is a tell of what will happen when we list on NSDQ with an updated FS.
Thank you for this thread. I am most interested in an accurate prediction of this number and am open to informed views.
According to the most recent amendment to NioCorp's most recent Form S-4, "Immediately following completion of the Transactions, it is expected that the current NioCorp Shareholders and the current GX Stockholders will own 42% and 58%, respectively, of the outstanding NioCorp Common Shares..."
From TSX, NioCorp has 282,420,651 shares outstanding (though I expect this is somewhat outdated info now). Those shares constitute 42% of the future outstanding NioCorp Common Shares, therefore that would put the figure at 672,430,121. This will probably be on the low side as I'm not accounting for warrants, options, and convertible debt.
Again, I'd appreciate other methodologies to predict this number.
Brazil miner CBMM seeks to sell 45,000 tons of niobium oxide by 2030
https://www.reuters.com/article/brazil-mining-batteries/brazil-miner-cbmm-seeks-to-sell-45000-tons-of-niobium-oxide-by-2030-idUSL1N2KF2VE
I own a large amount of both Niocorp and Excelsior and have been a buyer of the latter in bulk recently. This terrible pandemic, though admittedly troubling, leaves me ever more optimistic about the prospects of both. And for the record, this Kmack is an imbecile, and I mean that in the clinical sense of the word: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imbecile
The Public Inspection Document for the Draft List of Critical Minerals was filed on the Federal Register this morning. Sc, Nb, and Ti all appear on the list. One can access the unpublished version early through this URL: https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2018/02/16/2018-03219/draft-list-of-critical-minerals
Here is the actual URL of the .pdf: https://s3.amazonaws.com/public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2018-03219.pdf
One would sell in order to buy two shares for the price of one...or more accurately a share and an option good for two years. If, indeed, the recent selling is to raise money for the PP, then in a perverse way it is a bullish sign. That extra option is only valuable if the SP is higher than the option price...which is the offer price. Maybe I'm wrong, but after having re-read the PP news release, this is my conclusion.
...and I'm with Walter. I don't like it.
Radio show in Lincoln, Nebraska: http://www.kfor1240.com/The-Coby-Mach-Show/17550824
Note the show from last week, Aug 27, with Scott Honan: http://podcast.kfor1240.com/kfor2/4529511.mp3
Gary, the resource may be worth "x", but the mine itself is not the resource. If one sells all of his lemonade for $100, he doesn't make $100 profit...he needs to pay for the lemons, cups, sugar, labor, etc. The best way to put a present value on future revenues is by using the NPV (net present value) method. I posted a calculation to that effect earlier on this board...one could also just Google it.
Walter & others, I'm curious why one would choose to use 8% for discount factor in lieu of 9% or 6% or another? I have also seen 6% used for projects at feasibility stage: 4% for the time-value of money and 2% for risk. Obviously I understand this figure is subject to change based on the buyer/investor, but I would be educated in hearing justifications for the discount factor used in an NPV calculation and what we might expect with our Elk Creek mine.
Anyone else notice this?
"...over 100 bench scale tests now completed at SGS Canada Inc., at Lakefield, Ontario, and Hazen Research Inc., at Golden, Colorado.
There are TWO metallurgists working on the NB extraction. Two. So we have some competition structured into the process. Perhaps this is added cause to believe that the folks running the show are serious about an expedited timeline?
Check IAG to verify numbers, they are publicly traded. I will not do that for you. Their net profit/kg from their mine is about $20 when they sell their FeNb for about $45/kg, and, as has been stated earlier, our grade is better than theirs. This is NET profit, so the story about Elk Creek being a potentially $26-billion mine is not accurate, that was probably some reporter multiplying two numbers and not being responsible, not understanding the difference b/w net & gross.
I am using 130,000,000 shares outstanding for NIOBF. That's not exact, top of my head, memory. Again, do your own dd.
The average mining industry P/E is 23-24. Again, my estimate, look it up for your own dd.
(7500 tonnes x 1000 kg/tonnes x $20/kg) / 130,000,000 shares = EPS = $1.09/share
$1.09 x 23 = $25.06/share
Obviously this does not consider the capex/JV which will dilute shares. 50/50 JV puts us at $12.53/share. 75/25 JV puts us at 6.26/share. Etc.
This is off the top of my head, it is not cited, it's from my own dd - take it or leave it. And, I hope it goes without saying that this is just one method of valuing shares. P/E could be different, or one could value on life cycle, or present value, or one could take the vantage of the JV partner to determine what a buyout price might be, or private equity, etc. I just couldn't sit here reading some of these posts without saying something.
There is support for the stock at a level that's 20% higher than the publicly announced PP. I also can't imagine Mark Smith pumped a million of his own wealth into the company so that we could go slow. I think we're in for good things in short order.
Wall Street Journal reports that it is $0.20CAD. http://online.wsj.com/article/PR-CO-20140115-911409.html
I would gladly sell my shares at $2!
According to the OTC Short Report, at least some of the recent volume has been short-selling: http://otcshortreport.com/index.php?index=NIOBF
Does anyone know how credible this website is?
I welcome your thoughts, Inversor. The post I made was intended to query everyone on the message board with interest. I, like Joe, worry about dilution and its effect on SP. Yours is a good response.
Let's say they are able to raise $12-million for metallurgy, PEA, and drilling. That is their market cap, so it stands to reason that they will be significantly dilluted. I'm curious your opinions on what share price would do, and why? Maybe this deal in the next "few weeks" won't necessarily be good in the near term?
...and has it been said what kind of financing? Is this the JV we've all been waiting for? Or are they trying to secure financing for further testing and economic assessment? Both would be good, but one would be better :)
Has anyone else contacted that radio station to get a podcast? I didn't see one on the website.
When, Walter? I am not able to find this on their website.
After reading that REE article in US News, I found myself asking whether we would ever be so foolish as to be in a state of war (real, military war) with China. It then occurred to me that the recent rhetorical lunacy coming out of North Korea may hasten that day. Pray God it never happens. But the man in charge in North Korea is a genuine nutcase...and that is a great disservice to nutcases.
Though Nb isn't precisely an REE, it is similar. Finding some funding for processing would certainly be helpful and attractive for a potential JV partner.
Thank you, stark! I spent a long time trying to find that post. There are updated figures (updated with respect to that post) on NioCorp's presentation indicating amount of Niobium present: http://niocorp.com/images/NioCorpPP.pdf
Page 12 of this presentation is what I was looking at. Using these numbers yields quite a return using NPV. Thanks again, stark.
Does anyone recall the post in which a Net Present Valuation method was used to determine future SP of Quantum? It used to be posted as one of the top bookmarks on this board.
Does anyone else see the irony in the ticker "NB"? I can understand "NC" for NioCorp, but "NB" sure reminds me of the name Niobec!
Elk Creek, Nebraska is also in the news for other reasons right now. One of their residents - and there aren't many - just was named lieutenant governor of the state: http://www.omaha.com/article/20130213/NEWS/130219767/1685. How many residents are there in Elk Creek?
8.9 cents?!
We all know this is a longshot - it is, after all, a penny stock. Still it is not unreasonable to expect the company to provide information to the public from a public meeting.
Little to no volume, trading near a dime/share. Yuck. I've not been able to find any data about their annual Board meeting yesterday. Isn't that information in the public domain?
Thanks, Stark. I come to the same speculative conclusion as you. That particular combination of letters did not just happen to come together atop a news release by accident, and it was most certainly noticed as it was subsequently removed. I am hopeful we will have officially confirmed news of this first tranche of financing to accompany the announcement of a JV with the financier. December 12th would be a great date!
An observation for your perusal...
The original URL from Quantum's website announcing the appointment of Claude Dufresne can be seen here: http://www.quantumrareearth.com/component/content/article/15-press-releases/158-quantum-announces-board-changes-closes-first-tranche-of-financing.html
The release itself is not noteworthy. What I observe is in the URL itself, particularly the words "closes first tranche of financing".
Now here is a copy of the original news release taken from one of a few sites I've found. It is a shorter release than the one making the rounds: http://www.4-traders.com/news/Quantum-Rare-Earth-Developments-Corp-Quantum-announces-Board-changes-closes-first-tranche-of-fin--15555797/
Again, note the title of the release referencing that Quantum "closes first tranche of financing". I have searched high and low for more detail on this mysterious first tranche of financing but my search has availed nothing. My guess is that it is a mistake that slipped past, but the million-dollar question is whether the mistake is based in fact. Anyone else notice this or have any theories?
Are private placement offerings done by invitation? I am curious if one can buy shares on the open market for less than the private placement offering, does the company offer the PP at that lesser amount? All new to me...
This news story just appeared on the Internet regarding Quantum and the Elk Creek project: http://columbustelegram.com/news/state-and-regional/exploration-of-rare-nebraska-mineral-deposit-slows/article_73121e99-a31b-5707-a5b6-c1d6fe46e770.html
Gary,
This is from the 5/5/2010 edition of the Omaha newspaper, Omaha.com:
"It will take four to five months for Quantum to complete a $10 million purchase of Elk Creek Resources Corp., a Canadian-owned, Nebraska-based company that leased the southeast Nebraska property."
http://www.omaha.com/article/20100505/NEWS01/705059873
Here is a link to his public profile: http://www.linkedin.com/pub/claude-dufresne/1/517/645
It's kind of you to ask them, sir.
Yahoo lists his salary here: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=QREDF+Profile
That number may include stock, but Yahoo indicates no options have been exercised. I also searched their financial reports at SEDAR to no avail. Hopefully the worldwide decline in steel does not dampen prospects for finding a JV partner for QREDF. Insider buying is certainly good news toward that end.