Exposing Pump and Dumps - All my own opinions / not financial advice
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Great review of all of Cytodyn’s egregious lies and failures. If one reads through the S-3 closely enough one can conclude that Fife’s ratchet has been engaged. This won’t be a pernicious slow bleeder to chapter 11, it will be a quick one.
Fife is the only one who will keep this scam afloat and he’s on a path to crushing the PPS via his ratchet. What will dilution look like if Nader’s menemel delutien from Fife (S/O 2x in 18 months) engages a ratchet? What will it look like if they have to go somewhere else?
Remember this is a $3B, a run up of $2.9B since covid began. If COVID is a zero, which is obvious given two failed trials (failure = no primary end point met = no EUA / approval), then you’re back to the $100mm Enterprise value business again except share count has doubled
$100mm EV / 610mm shares outstanding (and going much higher) = $0.16 PPS.
Yikes
I appreciate NP talking about menimal deluten when shares outstanding have gone from 300mm to 610mm in the last 18 months
Anyone have any idea what happened to the 7 deaths? Nader reported 80 deaths but said in December there were 87 deaths at this moment.
The pump factor emerging even put in their model 90 deaths!
Does Leronlimab bring people back from the dead or is Nader lying (again)?
24% of n of 62. What happened the the other 230 trial patients?
CYDY failed it’s trial not meeting it’s primary end point with stat sig
Wrong
Expect this PR
$200mm mixed shelf
Meneeemalll dellluttion
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1175680/000119312521067849/d435677ds3.htm
If BP wanted to partner with CYDY they could write them a $100mm check for 30% of the business overnight. You realized they have doubled S/O in the past 12 months right to pay pumpers, Fife, and themselves (self-enrichment). It is why they are forced to go back to the well, Fife, who last time got a massive ROIC on his loan just from legal settlements!!!!
And when they fail, they have completely worthless inventory that they are contractually obligated to buy in total $65mm, which now needs to be written-off....Then what?
Bankruptcy
“If” is a funny choice of words. I’ve laid out many times how CD12 is destined to fail based on comparable studies and the total death count. If you’re using the subjunctive tense it should read more like
“If by some miracle of a chance, we didn’t fail, then the stock is fully valued”
Say it with me “S.E.L.F - E.N.R.I.C.H.M.E.N.T”
https://sec.report/Document/0001193125-21-064659/
The eIND for Mild-to-moderate was disclosed on xmas eve at 8pm from a CD10 trial that was concluded in the summer!!!
Adequate evidence? What? Literally this is how easy it is
Column 1: SoC 28 day deaths
Column 2: Loserlimab 28 day deaths
Reshuffle - matrix resample column 1 + column 2 (normal resample)
Calculate the total difference btwn each column
Repeat at score 10,000 times
Look at the results for how many times that event happened
Record the p-value
Using statistical software this would take 5 minutes. Anyone saying anything other than they failed is drinking the Loserlimab Kool-Aid which has shown to do nothing, even cure the baggie blues
They failed CD12, why would I cover?
Prior to COVID this had a $50mm enterprise value on 300mm share outstanding. Now it has a $3B enterprise value on 600mm+ shares outstanding
Price target, since they failed all COVID trials, is back to $50mm EV or $0.08 price per share
I am borrowing more shares than this entire board owns combined
To help with the upcoming bankruptcy filings...
They never released the P2 CD10 data, which one could argue is material itself. However, because they failed, they didn't 8k it because it wasn't material and instead buried it in the last sentence of an Xmas Eve 8pm est PR about open-label. Now that this is a P3 CD12 trial, it should be material; however, since Loserlimab isn't approved for anything, continuing to be a completely useless compound may be immaterial and Nader and Co could argue the results, unless they are positive, is not an 8k-able event
Leronlimab sitting on HIV data!
Big OOF
This CD12 nonsense is more of the same from our favorite coronacrapper $CYDY
Pestell, the guy who quit that sued the company for self-enrichment? I am sure he thinks highly of PRO 140 and Cyotdyn mgmt!
CYDY Down Another 7% - CD12 clearly failed
Who cares about the Flaherty Insider paid promotional pumps. This thing is dead. Data release went from Mid-Jan to March on a simple 28 day mortality endpoint? Grow up. He is sitting on the data. Also wonder why no stock sales from insider's have hit recently? It is because they are sitting on NMPI...
This is for ongoing trials! This trial was completed > 60 days ago
But they did have a paid promotion piece out by insider. The disclosures are shameful. They say they were not paid but do not discuss their relationship with the authors who are charged SEC felons
[url]https://www.sec.gov/litigation/complaints/2014/comp-pr2014-250.pdf
[/url][tag]Flaherty Bros[/tag]
This is a lamb-to-slaughter pump piece
CD10 was a trial for mild-to-moderate cohort. The results showed that the drug did not work, regardless of what Nader and paid promoters say about NEWS2.
How do I know it didn't work?
Cytodyn lost eIND for the mild-to-moderate cohort 8pm xmas eve PR - buried in the very last line before disclosures
This is wrong. eINDs are granted, based on safety, and then re-evaluated once a trial is complete and data have been analyzed.
Remember CD10 trial "impressive results" that were never released? Well they were so impressive that the FDA removed eIND for CD10 bc guess what...it doesn't work.
The exact same thing will happen with CD12.
Right now Nader is in btwn a rock and a hard place bc this is a "material event" given it's a p3 and needs to be disclosed within days or investors can sue him, the board would be held culpable, and the SEC, who is waiting to step in, will step in. So there is no way he can obfuscate the results like he did with CD10. This is going to get ugly and get ugly quickly
Nader PRs stuff about China, Mexico, wet farts etc, etc
Then sits on (failed CD10 data) or buries (lost eIND and rejected EUA in xmas post at 8pm) bad / negative PR. This simple primary endpoint of 28 day mortality calculation takes 15 minutes to calculate. If it were good (stat sig p-value < 0.05) it would have already been PR'ed.
BP is not colluding to keep CYDY down
FDA is not treating CYDY unfairly
Philippines is a piad promo video and will not large distribution unless US FDA grants it EUA / has a successful P3 (hint: they failed)
The Company has a legal obligation to release data
The company has a legal requirement by regulatory bodies to release results within 72 business hours. I guess the CD10 phase 2 (p2) data was not "material" bc it was a p2; however, this p3 is very much material and Nader/Mikey have a legal obligation to disclose the failed trial results. If not longs have the full right to sue Nader (again)
Dr Yo runs a gym and is a clown
Patterson is / was paid by the company
The science is trash
The Mgmt have all been sued for self enrichment and had to give back shares
BP wants nothing to do with this
FDA issued RTF for HIV
FDA pulled eIND for mild to moderate
FDA rejected or sorry told them they wouldn’t get EUA for mild to moderate
They have toxic financing from a charged SEC felon
They’re nowhere close to up listing
I’m shorting more tmw!
I don't need luck. I know how to calculate p-values and know that there is NO CHANCE Leronlimab acheives <0.05 P-value for CD12 for its primary endpoint. The stock will move down 75% on that news. Gonna be nasty
The pivot to Long Haulers has begun
Paying Dr Galyis 50k shares to pump this trial for Long Haulers after Leronlimab lost EUA and eIND for CD10 and clearly failed CD12 (sitting on data for a simple 28 day mortality primary) proves the pivot has begun.
Paid Promotion Here
Next stop: Pivot to HIV BLA or NASH trial
Stop along the way: $0.05 PPS which is about $50mm Enterprise Value or a very hefty valuation for a company going after a small HIV indication which already has approved drugs that are once a month subq.
For Nader’s next trick, another sleight of hand!
Like CD10, CD12 won’t “fail” or be “rejected EUA.” It will hit a new and even better subpopulation metric: NEW3! Dr Kelly will explain how this means the NASH and Long Hauler trial are so much more exciting!
** struggled to pay off fife’s note**
** restructures Samsung contract again**
We are also announcing another round of financing at $100 PPS! With only menimel dilution
**doubles the share count over 12 months again**
It’s quite simple:
1) the inclusion criteria for CD12 is such that it ignores the “sickest of the sick”
2) comparable critical mortality rates for CD12 is 30-35%
3) comparable severe mortality rates for CD12 is 10-12%
4) in order for LL to achieve a p-value < 0.05 (stat sig) the placebo arms needs to have >31% death rate assuming 90 total trial deaths after 28 days
5) 4 is not possible given 2&3 and the fact that the trial was not stopped due to efficacy when there were 45 total deaths out of 195.
This is another canary in the coal mine. Get out while you still can.
Comparable studies have placebo mortality rates around 20% (severe 10% and critical 30%). Nader knows he needs placebo to be 31%+ mortality and therefore, its statistically impossible for them to achieve a P<0.05. Remember regardless of what they PR, if 28 day mortality P value > 0.05, or placebo death rate is below 31%, they FAILED Do not be tricked by another sleight of hand
I printed and framed this post. You expect a 46% death rate or 60 deaths in the SOC, with 87 total trial deaths, Leronlimab, which lost eIND and rejected EUA for mild-to-moderate (on IMPRESSIVE RESULTS!) will have a 10% mortality rate (27 deaths) in their arm?
OMG. I love you.
33% Critical Mortality in UK Placebo Trial
Morgan Stanley Predicts 75% of US Vaccinated by June
Of course I don't know for certain but based on the comparable trials, the most recent Relief Therapeutics results, the total death count Nader gave us of 87+, it seems highly improbably that they will be able to achieve stat sig (placebo > 31% mortality rate) . Given Nader will PR a wet fart like (Mexico, open label expansion, $10 convert, Philippines, Nasdaq uplist), twist it to be positive, sometimes bury the real news (lsot eIND for m/m), which never end up being true....it seems he is delaying for a reason.
Just wait until Tuesday when Nader buries that they failed in a 5pm Friday holiday weekend PR and hides that they missed the primary end point
Friday night PR is coming and everyone knows it
That is why the stock is cratering. Expect this type of PR:
Just like this