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I lost money yesterday on puts
I reviewed and saw a flaw, costly lesson
applied lesson learned today
went back
recouped and plus 50% thank God
Strong move ahead of us
we had 2 days in a row where prices couldn't go out of morning
This means retail were out or weak, institutionals were out or weak
TWO DAYS !!!
And this at the end of another business killer of a long ranging stretch.
So the streaming revenue of brokers must be scarce by now, so they need to wake up the dead, aka SPY
That's the thing, technical is not subjective. How can it be? IMPOSSIBLE.
If we both look at OB stochastic how can we see different thing? Impossible.
You can not find even ONE example in which a technical situation is subjective.
At most you can find a WRONG FOCUS of the reader.
So you can look at Sto OB and I can look at MACD and you think it's a sell and I think it's a small weakness before a further jump.
It's like driving, it's 100% objective, but it's the driver's fault if he focuses on the wrong thing at the wrong time (i.e. focusing that he has a green light but disregarding a runaway vehicle).
I didn't say that.
I said technical side is objective 100% and that's what I need to know, all rest is subjective.
You have no answer to that.
I trade based on technicals for the most part, only fundamental I follow being USD status.
I think it's simple, I trade like that and works.
He had failed forecasts too you know
Why cherry-picking, just to build a pedestal ?! :/
That way I can also look like a genius if only my good forecasts are cherry-picked Lol
Was he 50-50?, 40-60? Who knows, never counted anybody, only know his now and then "oops-es" and red positions.
My respect for any forecast that beats the coin flip
p.s. yearly ATR allows for that forecast, as it allows for 50-75 dollars over these highs into next year, so SPY 2022 has an yATR potential of SPY500(LOL) to SPY525
I don't know if I posted, but I thought of them wanting to make SP500 mini-me SPY as 500 as in SP500 vs SPY500 kinda thing.
Games? Who knows, they did 666 before, so..., but it seemed to me very plausible.
The thought occurred to me when SPY closed above 400
Gee that was funny, honest, keep the composition humoristic, it's good stuff. (regardless of the debate)
I'm not sure if the fed (aka gov) care about d50 as per your narrative. Possible, maybe even probable, but I'm not sure.
So I do not (and did not) include parties being it fed or otherwise in a technical discussion.
The d50 is not the cause, but the effect of market forces pushing SPY around.
It's like a sport match. I don't watch it, I don't even like the players, I only want to know the score, particularly the end score so I can place bets. If team1 beats team2 FIFTY TIMES in last 60 matches , that's all I need to know to place a bet on Team1.
Who gives a rat why or even how team1 won those FIFTY games.
So each day above d50 is a match won by SPY team, therefore SPY price is ABOVE d50 as they won FIFTY+ matches over the average so duh, my my bets are up on SPY on THAT TECHNICAL fact ALONE.
The same duh would apply on March 2020 in reverse, regardless of what the fans were saying on the sidelines.
The technical take shows the ODDS map.
it's black and white.
But the reason is difficult is because people get bogged down on wrong tools for the time window and other similar problems (i.e. over-optimization rather than accepting assigned % losses).
Really simple, no horse stuff..
The CAUSE of a TECHNICAL event is completely irrelevant.
The reasons and causes are fundamental, and very subjective, they can be interpreted either way.
This has been proven time and again very often.
The technical part is objective 100% and can not be interpreted differently than they are.
Price gone in one side of d50 will remain on that side of d50 no matter of people's opinions, causes, or wishful thinking..
You are funny
"...the plunge last year was completely news/covid related"
"...ZERO technical forecast was available"
,,, yet ... --->
"... D50 was lost because.....xyz"
Last time I checked THIS is , umm, technical ?!!!
That doesn't look at all like "ZERO" !
too funny
----------------------
Say I am in a place with no access to any and all media, but I have access to the SPY chart only.
Back in 2020 I would buy the dips, and when d50 is lost I would get out and go short and buy the next support.
All without knowing of pandemic or politics or money printing or interest rates or EA announcements, nothing, vacuum, only SPY chart.
That's factual
SPY still in the range now seen as either slanted range (like a channel) or enlarged range as it went 1$ above the right side of the range
---> TWELVE DAYS of ranging now , wow !!!!!
yes, pure technical
d50 was lost, then deluge
but only to next support down mind you -> lows of 2018
say if that would happen now, (d50 lost etc) a similar support for "a crash BS" would be 345 to 320 area
nonsense brother, there is absolutely zero correlation between announcements, fundamentals , and market moves
It can go green, it can go red, but not because this or that data
The only exception would be a REAL attack on the USD status.
(this will happen immediately a country announces gold peg to their currency and offer any type of interest - I see china as a contender)
At that point curtain will fall and expose everybody at the helm as naked. Probably a serial open and immediately close, both at max switch down for day and days.
If THAT is not happening, then absolutely nothing matters, so just buy support and sell resistance, not a care in the world of what's pending to be released or who said what..
R 442 & 443
in between - women land (to ignore)
s1 441
s2 439
s3 436.5
What to do:
(you should've sold and be in cash now in women land)
Buy support levels progressively
sell at NEW resistance
if s1 is violated becomes NEW R1, so buy s2 and sell all s1 aka NEW R1
new women land formed, so ignore
wait and buy AGAIN S2 (S1 nonexistent)
and so on
yes it's more to the plan, but this segment should work
Those are short term trades (1-3 days)
Major volatility spike soon boys
Better be ready
Let's buy and sell and take some money
All red, Gold and Oil too
MM pumped from lows only the garbage (aka dirty cheap bloated equities)
You gotta respect the establishment (guide)lines
I'm amazed at the level of high-fiving
Things are fantastic
good, you did the right things
SPY is ranging, now 9th day in this flat churn and burn.
Technically you have only 2 options:
1. Buy low of range (bellow 437) and sell at/near top of range.
Holding after yesterday 3:55 PM NY is foolish.
2. wait in cash (for SPY to go back down to bottom of range) (OR violate the range - either way, which cancels the range).
Aggressive traders CAN also short at top of range, but it's risky because the range is above d50 (uptrend), so only in at lows and out to cash at top of range is the only safe game.
Also throw out all the indicators, OEPM, smoke signals, and E/A reports, Fed bullshit, just about anything and everything. Range trading is that simple.
So now waiting on hands and listening to music and live life and waiting for SPY to go bellow 437 to think about buying anything.
An alternative, but in same direction and play, is when SPY is at bottom of range, instead of buying SPY, just buy one of the stronger SPY horses, probably you will get more profit that way as SPY is only averaging its moves.
(I'm no expert but for those who are , VIX can be played there too for same reason)
Excellent put Ferda
In the end we make full circle back to technical, being it of chart or crumbs.
And re chart, advanced traders either use an extremely simplified chart, or out of box thinking , but in both cases they use money management and strategy and win trades.
In the end winning trades is all that matters
You are right in regard to "Good deeds do not go unpunished in this world"
The appreciation I (and others) got on this board and elsewhere is crickets (unless you dumb it down for toddlers, i.e. "Buying xyz").
Just like "less than 1% figured out this game", same less than 1% know when they see the value and consequently to appreciate the value.
It makes sense and it's sort of expected!
Only common (VERY LOW IQ) help is understood by most and consequently appreciated , like for example holding the door for person behind you, or helping a person/group to hold/push something.
I see you been saying 2 things:
1. you have an indicator (thus you CAN figure out THE GAME)
(A "GAME" implies rules of play and technicals!)
2. you have/see/recognize (which one is it?!) "signal" from people that decide market turns.
Now you say "people who have figured out this game"
But this implies something technical!!
IF all there is (for ID-ing "the day") is "private signals" from MM and such then there should be NOTHING there to figure out, so NOTHING technical , is it not?
So which way is it, the 666 secret signal or the technical signal..
I don't get how can you learn from people lurking silently, and learning a lot too..
Quote: "There's some extremely talented traders lurking around here silently. I've learned a lot from them."
speaking of "close enough to do the job" , that kijun line can be easily substituted by an ordinari moving average like 25
But I guess it won't change it's color like that fancy one
Stockcharts allows area style, so you can have red area bellow the MA
"I see 425 as an important support level...(in the short term timeframe)"
ok, because ??
Thanks mono
Yeah, that's a valid area being the low of range
But "interesting" should last not that long as ranges go with everything constrained in the box
Churn and burn
It is actually the best time for ninja trading (adding low IV and CHEAP options as perk)
Quick in-out KNOWING that you can NOT miss much (upside on the trade), over and over, and if you do it correctly you can bang more than a similar period of a swing leg
Failure is also easy to spot and has minimal loss
Problem - range is in 7th day old now, so it may give away and change into something else and price can't find algo love under otherwise support, first 439, now 438, so 437 is a big "I donno, maybe" kinda
I'm guessing bounce from 437 area still to happen but I think it will be sold, but SPY should correct another 5 bucks minim for real interest
Yes I can wait
Bottom not here at the highs
... as a validation vandal won't even try to stop you from buying here :)
funny thing ha
SPY in SEVEN DAYS range
This day could be very very well the 2nd best for a buy-puts and hold position.
I foresee a strong down. This seems like the beginning of the rolling snowball..
Monday was the shake-off and yesterday was the nudge of the snowball.
Yes, possible revisit of Monday close.
But I see overextended chart. So most sideways and /or churn, then correction downtown.
Me I prefer to not step in front of the deep-pockets skynet, and let go some of the meat and go in with a broken support.
But I think this is it highs until next year.
"markets are manipulated...then what’s the point to even invest in the stock market??
First, we don't "invest". We trade. In and out, in and out, in and out. Musical chairs attract us...
Secondly, good question... Well, we're here ... for the same reason/point YOU are HERE on a Stock Market board ... Lol
Yes, distractions cost.
But about strategy, I think it's wrong way, less efficient way.
Instead of buying-selling puts wouldn't it be more advantageous to sell-buy calls? This way you'd have the theta on your side.
The holding part would be more expensive but well worth it.
But personally I don't like such strategies despite working sometimes.
I prefer concentrating my efforts only on the strong side of the market, less stress for me.
hmm
Apparently that Topesky 440 does matter ... :/
But, I wanted to buy a bunch of ATM calls when SPY was at 436.00, but it was mighty difficult with the phone, couldn't see much, very cumbersome, and on the road, and on the action, very difficult.
But I took the joy seeing that my timing was impeccable and the potential was there for a pretty good trade.
(I also mulled on Monday if to load on puts - did not tho because the uptrend rule - still happy because it was a good chart read)
Waiting for next dip to buy and considering puts out if resistance is licked
Whatever
I get it
Thanks Ferda
Had things to do and put that aside as I still didn't see it to compute.
Today I looked with my son and I got it (the green table).
Yes, it's very close to what I need, thank you.
Funny thing, I wanted to do away with the x100 multiplicator ind it's impossible (I tried 0.01), as I preferred just the option dollar appreciation not the $ profit per position (4$ gaining 2.1$).
But nothing is perfect and I'm happy with whatever helps (I can calculate my way in mind).
Happy trades
My mono friend,
You have a lot of right in what you said in your posts.
You also have wrongs.
Yes, I can verify that you did hit SOME tops and bottoms to the day. Not all, I saw that, but enough to deserve to gloat.
You had been faked out, here and there, missed by a bit, but all in all you did excellent. The 100% is not there, it just can't be, but is good yes.
You are right I don't have the DAY, and nobody seems to have it, and neither you don't have it like all the time, let's be serious. I looked at some of your calls when you did hit the day and I have to admit no matter my expertise and experience I DID NOT AND COULD NOT see that day.
...Don't get me wrong, you and me know why I didn't and couldn't...
And it's not for me being stupid or not doing my charting ...!
(but some of the calls I hit the right spot and you missed)
Having said that, I have however hit ... THE SECOND BEST in such circumstances.
For example you did nail the top on dayX. But the price lingered (DECAYING OPTIONS - a thing you despise, just like me). But then when I did see the top, about dayX+3 or dayX+5, while price was now lower, it wasn't that much lower, and I got in just when the market was about to move.
(This is a theoretical study using my chart over your calls, so I did not actually take the trades in the study)
Point is that with options I did not miss much you vs me, or even gained through avoiding grinding and decay, and with stock I did miss but not significant to pull my hair. Meaning that without spoon-feed I managed to capture anywhere from 50% to 90% of moves we're talking about.
I agree it takes 20 years for Mr perfect type of thing, and yes, a certain type of person that can both, do the time and do the work.
THERE IS NOTHING THAT SOMEONE CAN POSSIBLY REVERSE ENGINEER ABOUT YOUR CALLS.
You call for that because you know it's impossible and you have fun imagining people trying and toiling to no end.
It's fun, I give you that, but I wouldn't do it for few reasons. But you do what you do.
There are some smart people here, some knowledgeable individuals. I have respect for them.
You know, capturing crumbs, sometimes big crumbs, from the market moves is not bad at all, PARTICULARLY when you keep GROWING your account.
It's like in real life:
Why would you look down on someone putting in his energy time and work but making less than you?!!
How about people making MORE than you? Should they look down on you?
Why looking down on someone going to the Gym yet having a less good-looking body than yours?! It doesn't make sense. It's always someone better than you. You don't want them to look down on you..
Nowwhat is right, you were wrong calling THE TOP, as you did call the top and here we are at new highs ABOVE your call which proves you wrong as you were sooo firm it is THE TOP and everyone will be in awe of the spectacular move coming up.
Nowwhat is also wrong as you DID actually capture A top.
It only looks like semantics.
Well, me/we can't do what you SOMETIMES can do, but me/we can do decent capturing what charts can.
I know you don't "have use" of indicators, as we know them. But that's because in your 20 years you did not refined and simplified the charting. If you do that then you will see that it can come really close to other "better" stuff.
I really like when I see you posting.
Please be more forgiving with other people that only try to do their best.
fwiw this board (or others) bears no significance in the marketplace and probably none in SPY price moves.
Thanks
(p.s. it seems I do get some of the "DAY"s now and then, but I won't say I have it, and you do miss some good moves, so ... respectfully, no one has all the cards me friend)
Thanks, yes, that would be closer to my search.
But I look at the table, and (435 call Aug6, real price about 4.25) and table shows for today 14 - what in the world is that 14 ??
Then I want to see if price were to rise 5 dollars overnight what the price would be for my call (it should rise 2.5 dollars, about 50% of SPY move)
I don't see it
Maybe you know
Thanks
Thanks freda. It's not really what I'm looking for but everything helps.
I'm astonished at the meager odds they show ... "Probability of profit: 34.8%"
And that is for the great amount of...
"Probability of returning (is) at least $0.01 (ONE CENT "profit"!!!) at the time of expiry. This figure is derived from 30 day Implied Volatility."
Not even 50% chance :/
...so according to them at optionsprofitcalculator I stand a chance of 30% to make a penny , ha
(what was checked: the near ATM (435c vs 440 SPY target for a 2 week span)
I can't comprehend yet the table (green-red) at the bottom of the page
Option chart is what option price did.
I want an independent line like a lagging (or percentage) moving average line (i.e. constant 40% or 50%), and this way you can see what should be the option price (vs what is and vs SPY). An even more advanced chart (then) would extrapolate. The extrapolation is useful for expectations. For example if I input a max high of +3$ for next day, and my options would show appreciation of 1.3, then next day if soon after the open if I see my options priced at my maximization I would just sell and not wait for grind and theta decay.
This also helps with the planning forward.
For shortys this 433.3 (half devil) is a pretty optimal and low risk entry.
Me I rather wait it out and buy calls together with the people in power.
1. I am thinking of a chart of options more like a chart of overlapped stocks where you could see the curve of options price versus the SPY price. In a simplistic way options move 50% of the SPY, or 50 cents on the dollar, so a 50% SPY overlapped over SPY could approach the reality. This is for ITM as the OTM are totally different. But it is the ITM that I'm interested in so it's fine.
I would like to have it overlapped. I think I will have to do it myself if it doesn't exists.
2. They say computers are faster than humans, I will not disagree as for the most part they are. But in execution I have a strong tendency to be much faster than computers around me, sometimes freezing it because I moved 1-2 seconds faster, so I learned to "give it time".
I have this issue to all kinds of machines, from industrial to home computers to hand held devices to cellphones.
IMO this should not be the case, and I would very much like to not be the case, but it is.
In some programming I made I tried to insert segments that will allow the computer to think beforehand or get ready faster. I succeeded only some of the times. I'm not a top programmer, and that was industrial staff not regular.
Maybe "fat finger" events are triggered by someone faster than those computers, then they malfunction.
Any idea on the options chart problem?
Is it out there any moving average that will trace only say 50% of the SPY?
The only thing I think of at the present will help is the Fibonacci fan with it's 50. But you'd have to use a lower number to account for theta loss.
you stated you have ONE indicator among 15.
A special one you follow.
You may have a system, a strategy, possible, but I don't believe in "I have one indicator" .
I'm too old to this to buy such hot air.
In your file/profile you are not a technical follower (even though you may actually do occasionally or consistently)
You and me know buddy
Sorry for whatever bothers you (maybe winners on the board?)
BTW as soon as you use the P word (perfect and 100%) you just make my point rock solid
You may win, even if 100%, no questioning that part
I Buy calls
422 ? Sure, why not
They don't stop printing and debasing the money
UP UP UP nominally