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Have not posted here in probably a year. I read the last couple of days posts.
I know several of you appreciated the analysis I did back when the 100 million dollar contract was put up. Taking what was offered, and the time value of money etc, what that cash stream meant to an investor. At the time it was worth about 7 cents if it all came together, discounting for time value of money, max was 3-5 cents. The stock I think was trading at the time around 3-4 cents.
Now with double the shares and no up front payment, and with the current scandal, no intelligent investor will invest anything.
Without any institutional support, and actual cash flow being years away, if this company actually stays afloat will be a surprise, that makse it virtually worthless.
Only those that could not let this go for emotional reasons, are left. Last I looked at this stock, people were still dreaming of riches, and I warned it was time to run.
When a company cannot report accurate financials at a minimum, it is a scam.
Most penny companies and actually all I have seen other than this one, at least put out accurate financial statements. When addition errors and grammatical errors show up, run....it is a scam.
Too late for those left. My final note, is there is no upside.
Whatever happens, too many shares outstanding, way too diluted.
Most probably this company is bankrupt and will dissolve.
I am not sure any shareholders have enough invested to pursue a legal battle, and unfortunately the company probably did not have BOD insurance that would settle with shareholders, so nothing to go after. Shareholders are last in line as creditors.
Sorry folks, lesson to be learned as an investor never get emotionally attached to any investment.
I don't write here often. But I do read this often and get chuckles out of the readings. Often like reading a comic book. Beth and several of you really do get it. I am sorry you are stuck in such a bad situation.
At times when you spend so much time arguing back and forth without any foundation of fact on many statements such as those from BB you are wasting time and scaring any real investor away from this stock as no one seems to have any real knowledge.
Many of you I am sure consider yourselves knowledgeable investors. But I question that. No one discusses any of the big picture or true global dynamics. What is happening in today's commodity markets and large cap miners? All the big names Bilton, Newmont, and Freeport are cutting all expenses and capital investments to protect dividends in an attempt to keep their share prices up. Copper sinks on a daily basis now below 2.30 a pound as China continues to slow.Auryn has two years plus to decide what they want to do.
It makes sense they have slowed their pace of exploration. The whole industry has.
There is no major making any new investments today. They state it in their news releases and quarterly updates. The commodity side of the market is in deep "bear" territory. There are no white knights coming to town in the current environment, no demand for this stock, and it will quietly continue to slide in value with the industry as there is no new money flowing to the commodity markets right now.
At best you are going to wait until the market turns and see if Auryn thinks they can make money by exercising or possibly selling their interest. They are buying 85% of the asset. They care little about the shareholders.
As the market has deteriated they very well could modify their offer or not proceed at all.
They could gain control and force a restructured sale, with a fairness opinion not hard to get based on market conditions and trends.
Hard to invest in a company with so little credible information.
While I agree with what you say. Current conditions make it so there is no sense of urgency. I expect they would continue to explore and if feasible set the platform for a major to become interested in the project. They do not owni it and sales of material would not revert to them prior to option being exercised.
Time is on their side to watch. Price of metal obviously impacts the feasibility against expenses to mine.
They are not a major miner and would have to raise an avundance of capital or obtain a partner. With the current environment and price of metals and other commodities as well, miners and drillers have critically cut back capital investment.
This would in any case not be the opportunity to monetize the project. You would wait for higher prices and increased valuation of proven reserves. While the environment has been excellent for mergers and acquisitions across many industries because of the low cost of capital this is not true in the commodity markets.
They will not quickly burn through their capital and ability to hold the option. There is no incentive right now to do it. I am ignoring all the talk that it is not their money and they had shares to sell etc.
Bottom line the market for commodity companies is awful. Worst that it has been in a decade or at the bottom of the recession.
I think you are wrong. Gold would be soaring right now. Smart money is always will ahead of the game. The dollar is stronger daily right now. If Greece actually exits, which no one in Europe wants, the euro will gain strength as it is a stronger currency without Greece.
The real gauge is the working metals. Which are primarily copper and silver with some intrinsic value. They have both been slammed. China slow down main culprit.
In that Medinah's large deposit is copper, these mines are becoming less valuable. In industry especially here in the states copper has been replaced primarily by synthetics except in the electronic space.
A penny is worth less than a penny again.
I read this site for humor every once in a while. I think many here cannot see the trees from the forest. Argue over whether the stock is manipulated by crooks or others. I think one should consider the environment of the commodity markets over the past couple of years. And what the impact on a deal would be assuming everything is on the up and up.
Copper is basically at half the price of what it was several years ago. Gold is 40% off of the highs.
Valuations of proven reserves in established companies have been crushed. It is very expensive to raise equity right now based on current values of the commodities. Freeport had to raise cash a few months ago at a fraction of what the stock sold for 5 years ago.
Given the overall environment and the over supply of metals on the market and China the biggest consumer struggling with it's economy no large mines are going into production.
Let's assume it is all on the up and up, Auruyn will continue with the "free option" it has for three years doing the minimum to not forfeit the option. If material/metal costs recover they may proceed. So until then just expect information updates from time to time, nothing terribly negative for the next couple years. They will at expiration assess the overall markets and look for a larger partner or sale. If the metal market is poor they will just walk.
The is assumes this is all on the up and up and not just a pump and dump. Do not expect any price appreciation of significance on any news. Miners are not making money right now and it is part of the market most investors see as the negative part of the market.
price has broken support with little to support price until the 2.8 cent range. All large volume is to the downside.
If the SEC would jump in that would probably be bad, could halt all trading. Not sure why they would. And if they did it would be way too late. Not a lot of authority for these type of deals in South America with no assets in the USA.
I agree with Kez, when most of shares accumulated by Auryn were private negotiated deals with large shareholders. It is the only thing that makes sense, they were not the only buyers. If they had gone into the market with that volume share price probably increased. There was no substantial volume after they released their statement and if there had been, no doubt price would have risen.
Watch next statement issuance by MDMN and outstanding shares. My guess they will have increased and balance came from existing shareholders with no other way to monetize. Nothing would have prevented that even with a statement saying they would buy open market.
I say this from experience, this happens all the time with legitimate stocks. A prime example would be what Buffet did with Bank of America, a private placement of stock with preferred dividend and options attached. None of us would have had the opportunity to participate, only trade the stock.
options, warrants, stock is privately placed all the time when a company needs capital, or large blocks are traded. I owned a lot of stock in a fortune 500 company when my business was purchased by this company. Brokers would privately negotiate a deal for me and a buyer outside the market, so stock was not penalized when I wanted to convert shares to cash.
When you invest in a rogue company like this you better know the players, there is not much protection from being mistreated.
Last time. If Auryn gains control, why would they want to make this deal more expensive? They will tender for the balance of stock at a cheap price. If you don't tender your stock is dead. The stock stops trading.
Worst case they decide they don't want it and dump their stock if they can. In any case the company is dead at that point.
Time for a little more reality. If Auryn takes control they can change the deal. They can make a forced tender of the balance of the stock. If you don't sell you hold worthless paper. Done with real companies, here with this non-regulated pinkie anything can happen. Nobody here has the resources to fight a legal battle.
A couple million shares is only worth a 100k and that won't get you through a legal battle.
A lot of bad stuff can happen after a change of control. This company will feel no obligation to take care of a stockholder who has sat on this stock for years.
I see no upside or catalyst to make this stock move up.
Get a dose of reality. Posting the chart if you can read it shows lower highs and lower lows. Trend is is weak and down. Testing the previous lows of around 3.8 and if successful there is no real bottom until you fall to the 2 cent range or below.
Why would Auryn want to buy shares??? Only if you think their option price is greater than the stock price and they could feel comfortable that what they pay would come back in a dividend guaranteed. As a minority holder with say 100 million shares they control nothing, so my guess they will buy no shares. They will be in the driver seat should they want to move forward on the option. They have no incentive to move quickly as commodity prices have fallen especially in this case the value of copper. They have 3 years to watch the market to make entry if they feel their drilling results warrant the investment. So let's think about that, if they exercise and who know what the payout terms will be but in any case not more than 7 or 8 cents a share based on the outstanding at the time of exercise. Then no cash flow for years as capital is expended to set up mining, equipment and delivery on their 15 % carry interest.
This is a long term venture with no quick payouts and a management team with a poor history and no confidence of what they will do with the funds if they ever receive them. They could just continue to look for new properties and have some funds to pay themselves with no obligation to return cash to shareholders. As long as they can enrich themselves why do anything different?
There appears to be less interest as there are no real new number of folks on this Board, just some hanger ons and those making unfounded guesses with no credible support to entice others to buy.
Making forward statements about prices with no facts or any support would be defined as pumping a stock.
People get real and consider what you are investing in and please support your WAGs with some legitimate support.
What you have in a nutshell is a purchase option. Maybe it happens maybe it doesn't. You don't qualify as a junior miner with a truck and a backhoe.
For no numeration the Lett's family or one or more of them got a purchase option, with the obligation to explore and possibly prove up the property. They are initially committing what appears to be 3 million with the possibility of going to 10 million with no equity trading hands for the first 10 million of exploration costs. If their initial exploratory efforts don't deem additional investment they walk. You might not get the full exploration done and probably are far from getting it done if they walk.
In the best case it all goes well, then you get 100 million over 3 years if not adjusted, and a 15% equity stake. As a minority holder who knows how that shakes out.
I think this still trades at a premium, and I am not sure it is worth much more than it is trading at even if all goes well.
As this exploration could take quite a bit of time, it still maybe a couple years until you know if anything will actually shake lose.
Show me anything published that shows any results of operations in those ventures? How do you know they are economically feasible?
For THAT matter you don't even know if the Letts venture will proceed through some initial drilling, and what that will mean.
What is intention of management to pull salaries if they have any cash?
Way too much unknown.
For the price to move higher for a sustainable period there needs to be clear economic support. Not just pie in the sky "deal is done". There needs to be a clear trend of improving earnings or support to ownership of proven reserves. This stock has neither.
Assuming the deal nets 100 million that is less than a dime over several years. Not defined yet but if the 15% retention might be of profits and on a GAAP basis may take years to achieve. And that may be a few million per year, way less than a penny per share.
With no coverage and no analytical analysis no real support for serious money. Letts are paying 100 million if this pans out which is less than 8 cents a share for 85% so why would they pay up by buying shares? They have a 3 year 10 million dollar ride for 3 years if results support staying in, if not they walk and this stock is finished.
See a ton of risk with no large upside to warrant the risk.
You need to support an economic situation where it would sport a higher cap value and I have read nothing to support this.
You can talk charts and pump all you want, but sophisticated money will not follow unless there is credible evidence and economic analysis supporting a higher price.
The 100 million "option" only equates to 7.7 cents a share. If you present value that out over 3 years and no solid data to support what other assets are producing or if they are producing and no solid evidence as to what reserves actually exist at this time. The 9 cent price does not look "cheap".
Until there is solid credible data suggesting different it is hard to see how the price will run up. They get 85% of the deal for 7.7 cents so why would they want to pay significantly more by buying the stock?
The stock has lost it's luster. 100 million over a period of years with over a billion shares outstanding is not worth more than a nickel.15% holding interest probably of net profits with over a billion shares outstanding would be less than a penny a year.
And all this depends on what management takes out for salaries and expenses. Not much to get excited about. It seems like many have smartly moved on.
This still has a bunch of "ifs" built in, and stock is trading over true value. Won't take much to see this ship sink.
my guess is for those that got sucked in, did not get information they were looking for. No solid numbers, no assays etc. These new comers will unload in the next few days moving the stock lower as no information came leading new players to move into the stock.
This was just par for the course.
There is nothing that came from this to move or substantiate a move to a higher ground.
The previous deal was for 180 million..........
Most would see this negative to trading price. 100 million if ever received is less than a dime a share over 3 years. That is before management takes whatever for their time and effort.
When present valued at a rate of return one would expect with risk, only worth a couple of pennies at best. No proven reserves at industry standards.
Not sure what you would expect.
This remains a joke. Without any recognized or credible support no real money will find it's way here.
They will have that opportunity again. Stock back at ground zero. Those that accumulated with spike in volume and price, if not amateur investors will not have an emotional tie to the stock and will just take their losses. This stock will have more sellers than buyers in the coming days.
The question that has to be asked who sold the shares??? Not someone who thought the stock was going up!
For this stock that is a lot of shares although it is less than 300k
What makes you and your buddy think this stock will pop?? No certified cash flow, no certifiable reserve, no projected earnings or cash flow. So what has changed?
A lot of volume from average trading and no move up.....I think this usually indicates some who know that the average trading price exceeds realizable value and have found they can dump some shares with enough new followers to hold the price.
Until there is credible reporting no real investors going to look at this. It now has been a couple of years that this Company has had an opportunity to get legitimate accounting performed. It does not cost an arm and a leg.
Maybe they continue to hide what is really there that they would have to report to get an opinion on their statements?
5 million shares trading and price is going no where, think it is someone buying??? Nope this is pure selling. Probably someone with inside knowledge knowing the stock is not going anywhere, or why sell?
Not a fortune being moved, only 200k on the selling price, but nice piece of change for someone holding virtually worthless stock.
No chance. Flat out no chance.
There is no institutional following nor any analyst.
This stock will not trade up with a billion shares outstanding and no supporting cash flow to support the stock even where it is.
no credible intelligence on what reserves are in the ground and what it will cost to recover.
Only the blind, and the blind leading the blind would buy into this story.
Sorry, several have had me look at this stock from time to time, but honestly there is nothing to look at. No cash, no capital investment. So maybe a truck or two a week to a mill, on a billion shares, what does that calculate to? Maybe enough for the insiders to pay themselves salaries.
The price is now below critical support in the .038 range with no support buying.
Releases are amateur at best, very little credibility to be read in. No real support for actual reserves, no credibility and now just a pipe dream for few.
10 years from now all will be saying how did they keep us on the hook for so long? How did they get a way with it? No one with enough really invested to go the legal route to recapture investments. Too many stocks like this.
Real businesses follow SEC regulations in hope of building value and getting on legitimate well regulated exchanges. This Company would need to audit it's real history, who could sign off on that?
No Company makes unfounded forward looking statements like this pack of crooks.
need to hold .038 last August low or a lot more pain coming.
Yes what I was referring to is in small LLC's there are usually clauses that protect minority investors for special events like selling a proportion of the assets or approving a joint venture etc. These are significant events and do not allow a majority owner to act unilaterally. They would be specifically defined in the operating agreement of an LLC and specify a hurdle rate to gain approval. It is usually something significantly over 50% to protect the minority investors.
Corporations such as MDMN would not need a majority to conduct significant events from the shareholders. This is especially true when a consolidated group controls the majority of shares.
So you should not expect any type of special votes at an AGM, it is just a standard legal obligation to hold an annual meeting.
That is typically in your Standard LLC type deals. The Board can pretty much do anything using their "fiduciary" responsibility.
Their is not much they can't do.
you don't hear of public companies being sold before a shareholder knows anything. Then a simple majority of stockholders are required to approve the deal. I would imagine the controlling group holds enough shares to do what they want.
You have a legal reason to have the Board meeting as called for by the bylaws of the corporation. Typically all that is voted on is Board of Director elections and if there is a proposal to modify the articles of incorporation or a change in the bylaws.
Typically no company needs approval to conduct any business within it's charter other something that would call for a shareholder approval.
They probably set the date as required and only have normal annual business with the election of Board Members.
Did you consider the corporate bylaws calls annually for a meeting within x number of days after year end?
You may only be voting on election of BOD.
stock selling with above average volume, below 10,30,50 and 200 day moving averages. The chart is very unhealthy. Without news, shares should be available testing lows between .028-.035 over the next couple of weeks. There appears to be more sellers than buyers at today's current prices.
My charts show stock having to test the lows of early August of .0385. If that support does not hold will test the lows of July below 3 cents.
Some news could always move the stock in another direction.
I haven't looked at this site in 6 months. The message board reads the same. Some JV, some missing funds, etc. etc.
People waiting with baited mouths wanting a piece of something.
This money looks to be dead.
Not the market makers holding the stock back, if there was any real value they could not hold in check.
It's the underlying Company. Either they really hold something of little value, or they are inept to get anything substantial done. They have been unable to deliver on any of their strategies. Therfore real money will not follow management that is not credible.
I think what you have posted is unfounded.I am a qualified investor, I have taken a company from start up to public on the Nasdaq successfully and then had the company tendered for by a fortune 500 company. I served as CEO and Chairman of the Board.
Whenver you take a company public and are raising investments from institutional investors, their interest lies largely in what the exit strategy of the company and there investment is. They need to believe in the story and the competence of management to execute on a well defined an achievable plan. What took place in a short period of time looks no less than delutive to existing stock holders and a poorly designed plan that is not well explained.There appears to be no conviction by management to increase the value of shareholders. That said,even if all they have on the table were to come to fruition, based on the number of shares outstanding, there appears to be little of value to existing shareholders based on the time value of money and the time line for payouts. I suspect based on the history of this company that little gets done for the shareholders. There is nothing preventing current management to cotinue to the pilfer the confurs of the company and naive investors through the issueance of addtional stock and selling into the market as long as some are willing to buy.
The investment is what it is, no real protection from authorities for misrepresentation. Totally buyer beware.
Listening to all the posters is entertaining to say the least. If all the money were to hit it is worth less than a penny after the company takes it's expenses. How high do you think a stock like this will sell on futures? Not a lot of credibility here to bring in any serious investor that wants reliable information to make an investment. Credible and proven management with an attractive track record? Don't see any. Been watching for a couple of years, nothing ever has been delivered, much less for projecting time schedules. And no, this is not the way deals generally unfold, unless you have zero leverage, which it appears to be the case, if the whole deal is not a sham.
I very much question how a so called mineral rich mountain, "a one of a kind" can stay such a secret from the industry?????? Probably not so one of a kind.
Charts if it means anything on a company with no internal financial activity other than issuing new stock and distributing the proceeds from such issuance to insiders, looks dismal, with lower highs and lower lows. Stock would appear to heading back south of a nickel and then out of sight. Not as many new folks getting sucked in to support the price.
When you present value the stream of cash flows, it is worth a lot less than whatever you think it will be over the next 50 years. Plus you have a company that has no history of success much less thinking it can successfully over time continue to creat additional mining opportunities.
I think I understand it pretty well. Own several mining majors.
Problem here is also the large volume of shares. Not to say if you bought at a penny or two, it has been a good investment. Just no much upside from here.
Finally someone who gets it. When you value the possible cash flow, stock can't be worth much more than what it is trading for, and that is if all this plays out for the best.
Analysing possible cash flow to Medinah, how does anyone find value exceeding what the stock is trading at? Has anyone done any analytical valuations on possible value per share other than just hyping value on rumored news? If any of the deals hit, what are they worth a share?
does anyone understand that the 50% of the 180 millio after expenses go to MDMN? That equates to 13 cents a share. After discounting for the time value of money it is worth less. 50% of the 15% retained interest is in profits assuming there are some. It will take decades to mine the claim, assuming all test drills and the quality of materials over the years provide profitable mining based on the sale price of the commodities.
If MDMN were to make another 20 or 30 million a year, on 700 million plus shares outstanding it comes to another couple of pennies a year.
On other reserves you need to know the value after getting it out of the ground.
With an unregulated company, why would this be worth anymore then what it is selling for if not less? The company can dilute current stock holders anytime with stock grants to management or new issue stock.
If you bought for a couple of pennies you have done real well to here.