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BSIC - Seems to be lagging a bit. Reminds me of how ASPN traded when it was down in the 1.20's.
My 6, if allowed. Just got back from vacation.
DFNS.OB, MNDO, LVFHF.OB, ACSEF, CMNN.OB, KAL
PYOL - The story gets even better. Didn't realize it at first, but a friend pointed out to me that Mr. Michael Herman (the PYOL buyer) is the same Mr. Michael Herman that is CEO of AMEX: SNR (Sunair Electronics).
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/95366/000095014405000317/g92651dedef14a.htm
Michael D. Herman, 47, became the Chairman of our Board of Directors on November 6, 2003 pursuant to a stock purchase agreement entered into on August 14, 2003 and completed November 6, 2003. From 1992 until 1999 Mr. Herman was, and since December, 2003 Mr. Herman has been, Chairman and majority stockholder of Telematrix, Inc., a Colorado Springs, CO based designer and marketer of a wide range of telephones and peripheral equipment for the commercial, residential and hospitality markets worldwide. From 1999 until November 2003 he was a private investor.
I will now concede that he doesn't know diddly about oil & gas. But he DOES know diddly about how to make shareholders money. I got into SNR last summer when defense firms were in vogue. SNR was profitable but stagnant (I vaguely even remember asking hweb if he liked the stock). I thought it would be good for a short-term position, with potential earnings upside. What ended up happening was that Mr. Herman engineered financing and purchase of a business completely outside the realm of SNR -- pest control. That shot the stock from ~$5 to $17 in short order (focus on late 2004):
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=snr&time=8&freq=1
I am entirely confident that Mr. Herman is now with PYOL to do the same type of thing...put PYOL's assets to work for shareholder value. I am a buyer tomorrow, willing to hold for Mr. Herman's leadership to take shape.
Bob,
If we assume that listing "energy" last means that Mr. Herman has the LEAST amount of experience there, then I somewhat agree with you. That said, it's quite possible that old managment were being very cautious not to increase expenses (i.e. take on new drilling) because they knew they were going to sell the company. New management could/should get the exploration going again, and since the company is already substantially profitable, there's margin for error.
Time will tell, and obviously I'm a biased long, but even if I weren't already long I'd be inclined to point out that the transaction is quite interesting at the very least. "Interesting" doesn't always translate into an increasing share price however.
stanu, re: PYOL - the old owners were just that, old. They were retired and are now liquid in their old age. I see the transaction as a strong positive for the company. One doesn't plop down ~$3.5MM on a whim; the new investor must have strong hopes for the future.
PYOL - Looks interesting at these levels. .09 vs .06 eps last quarter (subtracting one-time gain from 2004). Filing today shows change of control of the company. New investor not a dummy...should be a ringing endorsement for the company's future prospects.
From Yahoo!:
Shares Outstanding: 2.49M
Float: 794.48K
Total Cash (mrq): 1.67M
Total Cash Per Share (mrq): 0.668
Total Debt (mrq): 114.71K
Total Debt/Equity (mrq): 0.037
Current Ratio (mrq): 3.99
Book Value Per Share (mrq): 1.231
Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): 11.27
Revenue (ttm): 2.67M
Revenue Per Share (ttm): 1.072
Qtrly Revenue Growth (yoy): 31.20%
BSIC - not in, but anybody have an inkling as to why this quality o/g stock gets ignored? can't find much on the downside for it, but can't help but think that I'm missing something.
thanks.
deathtotaxes, were the orders that didn't show on stocks that end in 'F'? I have had that happen several times, and its a quirk in the system that ends up routing orders on non-US-based stocks (e.g. Canadian ) to the Canadian exchange instead of a local market. The order is then NOT reflected on our level 2's.
hweb - re: shorting ABLE
If you can find shares, more power to ya! It's on SHO and restricted short lists. I can't find any shares, and am kind of glad I haven't until now!
re: diversification; a different perspective
I do not believe in diversification for a TRADING account. For an investment account, yes for sure. Diversification plays no role in trading.
I do not have pre-set limits to how much $ I will put in a trade. It is entirely subjective depending on my interpretation of the stock's potential. Last year I had a huge position in DFNS, maxxing out at close to 90k shares at around .40. It all depends on the play. I do so much DD that I refuse to only make a few bucks on a play that I am convinced will go up substantially.
I will hold anywhere from 0 to 10 stocks in my TRADING account, depending on whether they're day plays, swing plays, or positions.
Selling has always been my problem. I find it far easier to buy than sell. Sometimes I'm in "lock in profits" mode and sell early, other times I nail it by holding, other times I'm stubborn as my baby is falling and refuse to sell. Works out overall, but need some work here. 2003, 2004, 2005 have been incredible.
You asked Bob about warrant plays, but I thought I'd chime in here on the one warrant play that I'm very high on.
The underlying is PED (Smartpros), darned near a VM in and of itself. Getting a quote on the warrants, which also trade on the Amex, is another story. On Yahoo it's PED-WT. On Ameritrade it's PED.WS for quotes, PED+ if you're entering an order.
Terms for the warrants:
Expiration in 4.5 yrs
Exercise price of 7.125
Call price of 9.5
Current price of UNDERLYING: 4.3
Current price of WARRANTS: .70
# outstanding ~925,000
# in the float: way less than 925k (hehe)
Not a whole lot of volatility on the common, so it's kind of hard to assign a good volatility # for use in Black Scholes models.
CNVT (.29) - Posted .03 EPS, but the EPS isn't what's important here. CNVT has a large holding that recently went public, called Biorem. CNVT owns 32% of Biorem, worth $7.6MM. CNVT has 13.8M shares outstanding, which makes their holding of Biorem worth about .55/share. CNVT is currently trading at .29; talk about value.
CNVT also holds large percentages of 3 other companies that have some promising developments.
hweb,
Is the guidance based on extrapolation of the just-completed quarter, or is it company guidance based on expected revenue estimates? Kind of looks like they had a benefit from stock retirement last quarter.
MNMN Monument Resources liquidating oil/gas/mineral properties and issuing dividend between .44-.49. Stock opened at .20x.31, huge discount.
Monument Resources, Inc. Announces Purchase and Sale Agreement
Friday May 13, 9:30 am ET
DENVER, May 13 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Monument Resources, Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: MNMN - News; "Monument") announced today that it has entered into a Purchase and Sale Agreement ("Agreement") with TEG-Mid Continent, Inc. ("TEG"), an unaffiliated party, to sell Monument's Leavenworth County, Kansas gas properties.
Under the Agreement, Monument agreed to sell and TEG agreed to purchase Monument's right, title and interests to its Kansas properties along with its related gas pipeline and other operating equipment. The purchase price for the assets is $1,775,000 plus reimbursements for certain capital expenditures and closing adjustments. Closing is anticipated to be within 60 days from the date of the Agreement.
The closing of the Agreement is subject to various conditions including the accuracy of the parties' representations and warranties, certain other conditions and approval of Monument shareholders. Monument plans to provide its shareholders with a proxy statement describing the transaction and the reasons therefore within 30 days from the date of the Agreement.
If the transaction does not close because TEG fails to obtain the necessary funding, Monument will receive $150,000 as liquidated damages. If the Agreement is terminated because Monument accepts a superior offer from a third party, Monument will be obligated to pay $100,000 to TEG.
If the transaction closes, Monument plans to declare a liquidating dividend of approximately $0.44 to $0.49 per Monument share. This includes Monument's existing cash, less transaction costs, plus proceeds from the sale of its other oil and gas and mining interests. The plan and the reasons therefore will also be explained in Monument's forthcoming proxy statement.
VTEK - 4.9, value VoIP
Buying a substantial position here. One of the only true value plays in the VoIP sector. Nice cash, EPS, and share buyback plan in place.
Great risk/return at these levels.
Certainly not as good as, say, going to .50/share. But I tell you what. Shell stocks are going through the roof (not all, some). While this hurts us in the short-term, longer-term is quite exciting. ONTV won't have a LOT of cash or assets, and I"m curious how much tax-loss carryforwards they're gonna have, but they'll be in pretty good shape as a shell.
I guess the issuance of the Preferred shares should have been a yellow flag that there were going to be issues upcoming that mgmt would want voting control over!
IFO interesting value/momentum play; news w/ Novatel Wireless today.
(from yahoo)
Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): 9.25
Revenue (ttm): 73.41M
Revenue Per Share (ttm): 14.717
Revenue Growth (lfy)³: 39.50%
Gross Profit (ttm)²: 7.79M
EBITDA (ttm): 1.36M
Net Income Avl to Common (ttm): 929.00K
Diluted EPS (ttm): 0.28
Earnings Growth (lfy)³: 166.90%
Total Cash (mrq): 5.18M
Total Cash Per Share (mrq): 0.99
Float: 1.50M
Shares Outstanding: 5.21M
Held by Insiders: 71.22%
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/050411/115396.html?.v=1
Novatel Wireless and InfoSonics Sign Agreement for Distribution of Merlin Wireless PC Cards
Monday April 11, 8:02 am ET
SAN DIEGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--April 11, 2005--Novatel Wireless, Inc. (Nasdaq:NVTL - News), a provider of wireless broadband access solutions, and InfoSonics Corporation (Amex:IFO - News) have signed an agreement for the distribution of Novatel Wireless' complete line of Merlin(TM) Wireless PC Card Modems throughout the Americas. The 3G modems provide consumers and mobile workers with high-speed, always-on access to the Internet, email, and even corporate networks residing behind firewalls.
InfoSonics will begin by offering the Merlin C201(TM), Merlin U520(TM) and Merlin V620(TM) Wireless PC Card Modems to its extensive reseller distribution channels, including its dealer agent base and regional operators. The Merlin C201 leverages 1900 MHz band CDMA2000 1X networks, providing wireless connectivity at speeds up to 144 kbps. The Merlin U520 operates on 1900 MHz band UMTS networks in North America, supporting broadband speeds up to 384 kbps. The Merlin V620 operates on 800 and 1900 MHz band CDMA2000 1xEV-DO networks and transmits data at speeds of 300-500 kbps, with bursts up to 2.4 Mbps. All Merlin Wireless PC Card Modems feature a rugged internal antenna and are compatible with most popular laptop makes and models.
"We are excited about the new partnership with Novatel Wireless," said Joseph Ram, Chief Executive Officer of InfoSonics. "Novatel Wireless will have access to the InfoSonics infrastructure and customer relationships in the US, Latin America and the Caribbean, while InfoSonics will have the opportunity to offer a leading-edge product to its existing customers and channels. Novatel Wireless' innovative EVDO and UMTS product lines, coupled with InfoSonic's dedication to this business, will, we believe, make this partnership a great success. We expect strong growth in this segment of the market as more 3G data services and connectivity applications become available, providing a more stable revenue stream for our customers."
"As wireless high-speed broadband becomes widely available, we believe that enterprises will increasingly look to value-added distributors like InfoSonics for their 3G wireless solutions," said Rob Hadley, Senior Vice President of Worldwide Sales and Marketing at Novatel Wireless. "As one of the world's premier distributors of mobile solutions, Novatel Wireless is confident that InfoSonics has the industry knowledge that further extends our market reach."
ABOUT INFOSONICS
InfoSonics is one of the largest distributors of wireless handsets and accessories in the United States and Mexico, and also distributes products in other portions of North, Central and South America. For the wireless telecommunications industry, InfoSonics provides flexible and cost effective solutions including: purchasing, marketing, selling, warehousing, order assembly, programming, packing, shipping and delivery. InfoSonics supports the manufacturers in moving their products to agents, resellers, distributors, independent dealers, retailers and wireless network operators in the U.S. and Latin America. For additional information, please visit http://www.InfoSonics.com.
ABOUT NOVATEL WIRELESS, INC.
Novatel Wireless, Inc. is a leading provider of wireless broadband access solutions. Novatel Wireless' Merlin(TM) PC Cards, Expedite(TM) Embedded Modems, Freedom Box(TM) Ruggedized Modems, MobiLink(TM) Communications Software Suite, Ovation(TM) 3G Multimedia Application Consoles and Conversa(TM) Software Suite enable high-speed wireless access to personal, corporate and public information. The company delivers innovative 3G solutions to operators, distributors and vertical markets worldwide. Headquartered in San Diego, California, Novatel Wireless is listed on NASDAQ: NVTL. For more information on Novatel Wireless visit www.novatelwireless.com.
ACY - Trading at 1/3 of book, .17 EPS for 2004
Not exactly cheap by PE standards, but certainly a value play by asset valuation standards. Picking up some volume due to low float, and VEXP fresh in people's minds. Unclear what the longer-term has in store.
steel
AMLS - Very nice contract news expected to have substantial impact for 2005.
From 8-K:
On April 6th, 2005 the company announced that its Chinese subsidiary, Hubei Tongji Benda Ebei Pharmaceutical Company has been awarded a 30 million RMB sales contract (approx. 3.6 million USD) to supply a range of homeostatic, antiviral and other pharmaceuticals in injectable form to Hubei Jiuzhoutong Pharmaceutical Ltd. This is expected to have a significantly favorable impact on operating results for the 2005 fiscal year.
Actual PR:
Amersin Subsidiary Receives 30 Million RMB Contract
Wednesday April 6, 9:00 am ET
NEW YORK, April 6, 2005 (PRIMEZONE) -- Amersin Life Science Corporation (OTC BB:AMLS.OB - News) announced today that its subsidiary, Hubei Tongji Benda Ebei Pharmaceutical Company, has been awarded a 30 million RMB sales contract (approx. 3.6 million USD) to supply a range of homeostatic, antiviral and other pharmaceuticals in injectable form to Hubei Jiuzhoutong Pharmaceutical Ltd.
Hubei Jiuzhoutong Pharmaceutical Ltd. is one of the largest and the fastest growing privately owned pharmaceutical distribution companies in China. It has established sales and distribution networks throughout China.
``We are pleased to enter into Hubei Jiuzhoutong Pharmaceuticals' large distribution network,'' said Mr. Reid Li, President of Amersin Life Sciences Corporation. ``This is the first time our subsidiary has received a single contract of this size from such a well-established distributor. Our products will be sold into new markets through their sales network creating additional demand in the future. It is the beginning of a strategic relationship we believe will lead to many other opportunities as we continue to restructure our products lines to increase capacity and introduce additional products that fit within Hubei Jiuzhoutongs' established channels.''
Bob, you're certainly right about the share counts. I'm inclined to call the CEO and find out. The interview is worth listening to if you're at all intrigued. I almost want to listen again and count how many times the CEO uses the word "systematically".
The bottom line is that they believe that they can acquire and "re-ignite" existing wells really "cheaply", using cash and stock to fund the acquisitions. No matter what though, it takes a leap of faith to feel fully comfortable with this one.
Bob, did you get a chance to look at BDGR.PK? My info is limited, but the rapid acquisition and refurbishment of existing wells makes for an interesting story at least.
TIA
Len, tend to agree. A high short interest (ah, here's where it gets tricky; to me, "days to cover" means nothing....i'm looking for short interest as a % of float) is definitely bullish for me if I'm going to establish a position. Not so much a factor if i'm trading the stock.
steel
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Steel: One other thing worth commenting on regarding shorting is that IF you are going to short a company, you are probably a lot safer if you pick one that hasn't already developed a huge short position. Not only will you get your shares a lot easier, but you don't have to worry about a short squeeze. That is one of the reasons I will see high short ratios as a positive when buying a stock - assuming I want it for other reasons anyway.
Len
SSKILZ1, thanks for the thoughtful post. It's great that you have such backup for your opinions. But let me tell you this....I used to think EXACTLY the same way you do. It wasn't until I got over that psychological barrier of shorting being counter-intuitive, did I become a much better trader. Notice I said TRADER, not INVESTOR. I won't hold shorts for more than a swing's duration, mainly out of nervousness and the fact that it really eats up buying power. I hope to overcome this nervousness because the shorts that I do put on tend to turn out quite well, but would have been even better had I held another week or more.
As for your numbered points, I tend to agree with 1). Don't see any good reason to short these.
Your 2) I wholeheartedly disagree with. Everybody is looking at the same charts, whether to buy or sell. Using TA to put on shorts is a GREAT way to make $. How many people say, "Darn...it just dropped thru support." Well guess what, that's a GREAT time to short, because that one event triggers a lot of sells from other INVESTORS/TRADERS.
As for 3), sectors go from hot to cold in a matter of hours. Some have endurance, like nanotech, VoIP, oil/gas, etc. But the fastest way to make a sector cold is to have other ones get hot. Again, why buy into a hot sector that has gotten white hot, when you can short at that point?
If shorting makes you nervous, try some paper shorts on stocks like VEXP. Then proceed to 100s lots just so you can see if your brokerage even has shares to short (this is a HUGE problem...availability). Use buy-stops if necessary (I don't like to).
Remember that "small cap" in the mutual fund industry often caps stocks at about $1Billion in mkt cap, unlike most of ours that are around $20MM max.
RIMS: Odd that I was looking at this one last night and today am presented with an entry point. One thing that I was wondering was whether their revenues (being software-based) are recurring, or are they more lump-sum based on new contracts.
thanks.
Len, that's just fear talking. There's no difference in using a buy-stop and a sell-stop. Just use a buy-stop if you're concerned about your potential loss to the upside.
It's a lot harder to find excesses in indices than in individual stocks. I would also not hesitate to guess that if you asked someone like hweb, I bet his trade-success% is HIGHER for his short plays than long plays. (he's pretty good on the long side for sure). I am prolly around 95% profitable on my short trades, and should prolly do more of it (and thereby bring my % down for sure). I am not aware of any unprofitable short trades for hweb.
You do have one good point. That is, you shouldn't just go randomly shorting stocks...you CAN get killed. But with similar disciplines as going long, the short side can be at least as profitable, at least as often.
SSKILZ, re: shorting
Shorting should be as much of your repetoire as longing. It really is NO DIFFERENT (at least, in the ways that matter --> research). Let's say that you were to run screens based on fundamental ratios/values that are important to you (e.g. value microcaps?). Well, that should give you a list that you would use to buy. Now do the reverse. Set up your screen to find heavily debt-burdened companies, negative cash flow, current ratio <1, no insider ownership, etc.
That's your formula to finding good short plays, especially over the summer months! Why suffer the summer downturn when you could instead profit?
Just my .02
steel
OT: Top several, in no particular order, and some aren't VMC's ('+' indicates profitable):
GKIN.OB
GAMM.OB
MNMN.OB (+)
ONTV.OB (+)
PED-WT (+)
CVV (short) (+)
GTEC.OB
AMLS.OB (+)
SUWN.OB (+)
ROBE.OB (+)
BDGR.PK
Hank, you have a good macro view with good backup. What I would add is that there are ALWAYS sectors to play, independent of any macro view having a much broader time horizon. I strongly believe, and therefore trade as such, that at least one 'new' sector or group of stocks becomes "in play" each and every week. Oil/gas (every other day it seems), Uranium, low floaters, nanotech, VoIP, microwave, defense, armor, you name it. The key is to spot these, and then profit from them.
I don't spend any time at all thinking of a macro view, other than certain obvious grandiose things I look for to tweak long-term mutual fund allocations. But other than that, trading is what it's all about, and there's no diversification necessary for traders. That's pretty much why i almost always INVEST with mutuals, and leave it at that. Trading is where the excess returns come from.
Bob - BDGR.PK Black Dragon Resources
Bob, was wondering what your take is on BDGR.PK. Here's the CEOcast that piqued my interest, then reading the PR's and such got me in the stock.
http://www.ceocast.com/company.cfm?cid=15396
Haven't been able to find any share information, but here's a summary of what I heard in the CEOcast:
* Bringing enough wells online (via cost-effective refurbishing of older wells) to pump 9000 barrels/month by July.
* Aren't currently drilling since they have so many wells available to them to bring back online.
* At the time of the interview, they had 111 wells, 72 producing oil/gas. Based on recent PRs since the interview, they have increased that number, and are looking to get to 550 producing wells by Q3.
* Paying for wells that they don't already have by cash/stock; no idea how much of either they have available.
* Interview talked exclusively about oil, but based on PRs the company is also collecting gas.
* And actually, now that I look at today's PR again (posted below), there are some #'s that supercede ones that I have above...oh well.
Thanks in advance should you choose to look/listen to this one.
----------
Friday April 1, 10:07 am ET
AUSTIN, Texas--(BUSINESS WIRE)--April 1, 2005--Black Dragon Resource Companies (OTC:BDGR - News)
President Rick Michael announced today that the purchase of 200 oil and gas wells, located in Louisiana and Texas has been completed, with an effective date of March 1, 2005.
Mr. Michael also announced the signing of a purchase agreement to acquire an additional 116 wells, expected to be closed shortly.
Mr. Michael stated that, "With this latest acquisition, Black Dragon now owns 310 producing wells projected to generate annualized gross revenues of $4,030,000. These figures do not include expected revenue from gas production.
"We're on track to reaching our goal to own at least 1,000 oil and gas wells by August of this year."
CVV - I've been talking about this one since a buck. Finally got my payoff! Expecting similar magnitude moves on already-profitable stocks SUWN.OB and AMLS.OB
hweb - agree with your analysis, but it's called "trading", not "investing". In time, you'll be right, but not today. Maybe tomorrow though!
CVV - Earnings coming up. Good risk/reward here at a sub-$1 entry. The debt on the balance sheet is mortgage debt, so the property is actually an asset. BV reflective of this. Backlog comments from last 10Q portend improvement from previous quarter; unclear how it will compare to last year.
Shares Outstanding: 3.04M
Float: 1.50M
% Held by Insiders: 50.64%
Revenue (ttm): 7.59M
Revenue Per Share (ttm): 2.498
Revenue Growth (lfy)³: 5.90%
Total Cash (mrq): 397.00K
Total Cash Per Share (mrq): 0.13
Total Debt (mrq)²: 3.70M
Total Debt/Equity (mrq): 0.745
Current Ratio (mrq): 2.083
Book Value Per Share (mrq): 1.633
Uranium will be the theme next week. USEG/USU are getting the fire lit. Of course the zipcodechangers aren't those, so here are my current microcap favorites:
ASXSF.OB
TRDM.OB
neither have even decent financials, but the pool of tradeable U stocks are so small that I'm expecting all of them to get good action. [there are a ton of canadian pinkies, but I can't even pull up Level 2 for most of them].
IMX - We may have seen it today, although capitulation to $5 would bring in some $ from me.
Bob/Koz -- appreciate input on MNMN.OB if you are so inclined. Not "cheap" perhaps, but profitable with good cash/assets on hand.
Seems undiscovered, in oilspeak.
http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/818468/000105050205000150/monument1204.txt
bones, you're right.
I did what I hate most, quick non-thorough DD. I do think that VLTA won't be profitable anytime soon, and should seek to be acquired or make acquisitions. But the point of this post is to acknowledge that I goofed!
VLTA - I show them with .15/sh in cash and depleting.
markr, Thanks for the explanation, but in looking at recent SEC filings for SRCX, they imply that the SEC had questions either instead of or in addition to the IRS. SRCX still has a well, and continue to pump it profitably. I'm curious whether SRCX has a material case in court for breach of contract.
Bob et al, any opinion on KEST.OB? Nice lil' profitable, growing o/g though perhaps not "cheap" by EPS standards.