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No! BP wouldn't buy NWBO & COgnate. It also wouldn't make sense. The higher they pay for NWBO, the more Cognate is worth.
They don't need the facility, they need the recipe (Vaccine). They have their own facilities, and their own manufacturing capabilities. So no, BP WOULD NEVER BUY COGNATE IN CONJUNCTION WITH NWBO. THEY DONT NEED COGNATE!
I never said NWBO would be bought out. YOU DID! The whole reason NWBO isn't for sale is that they have manufacturing capabilities.
It would be like Macdonalds buying a recipe from a cook that works at the Greasy Spoon Café. The cook may have been cooking the recipe at the Greasy Spoon Café, and because he owned it, he sold it to MacDonalds. Would Macdonalds buy the Greasy Spoon café as well? No, they have the ability to cook the recipe at their own restaurants.
Why would Big Pharma buy a manufacturing facility if they already owned numerous facilities? THAT DOESNT MAKE SENSE!!!
No Big Pharma has their own manufacturing capabilities. They would not need Cognate to manufacture the vaccines. They would set up their own process and manufacture it themselves. That's the whole point of Big Pharma buying Kite and Juno.
That makes no sense! Why would BP need to buy out Cognate? They would buyout NWBO, and Cognate would reap the benefits of a NWBO buy out by receiving money for their shares. ALOT OF MONEY!! As they own ALOT OF SHARES!!!
That's true. In a sense, LP is trying to create her own WALMART advantage. You see WALMART invites suppliers to a specific negotiating building where their headquarters are located in Bentonville, AR. This negotiating building is similar to a police interrogation facility. Suppliers are brought into an empty room, it is there that Walmart negotiates large supply contracts, pressuring the suppliers to reduce their prices as much as possible, and then sign before leaving the room.
Ultimately, Walmart knows they own the upper hand. They can make or break a supplier at one of these negotiations. With NWBO, since they have manufacturing capabilities, they no longer give BP the Walmart Advantage. Yes Juno and Kite were able to get a bidding war and good value, but there is a point where they can not get any more value, and at some point the company has to rely on at least one BP coming to the table.
NWBO does not. They can actually decide when or if they even want a table.
Partnering with a BP's inhibitor is much different than partnering with BP to rely on them for manufacturing capabilities.
The big difference is, KITE & JUNO did not have large scale manufacturing capabilities. In order to achieve ANY revenue, they need a company that can manufacture their product in large quantities, with HIGH quality controls already in place, and already have these manufacturing and quality controls in place.
THAT IS WHY THEY SOLD THEMSELVES TO BIG PHARMA. So if Big Pharma is willing to pay $10B for these companies, THEN THERE MUST BE MUCH MORE THAN $10B OF VALUE FROM THEIR PURCHASE. MEANING, if NWBO has a positive P3 Trial, has Cognate's manufacturing capabilities, THEN THE PAYBACK IS MUCH GREATER THAN $10B, ESPECIALLY IF YOU ARE CONSIDERING DCVAX DIRECT'S POTENTIAL.
With Cognate partnership, NWBO doesn't need to partner with Big Pharma. I sense that is the true reasoning for the targeted shorting of the stock to try and bankrupt the company.
There are ~14,000 cases of GBM in the US alone, so even if NWBO treated 50% of these, 7,000 cases, at ~$130K each, that's revenue of nearly $1B alone. From NWBO 10K SEC statements, Cognate has facility space to expand production of DCVax-L to up to 5,000 vaccines per year. This means they can quickly, and readily ramp up manufacturing in the US alone to nearly treat 50% of GBM patients. This doesn't include the manufacturing capabilities in Germany and the UK.
Therefore, not only can NWBO begin achieving revenue and manufacturing without Big Pharma, they have manufacturing capabilities in numerous countries. This means that they do not need the marketing, nor distribution capabilities of a BP.
Hence, if P3 results are positive, the market cap could easily and should easily blow away $10B!!
Yeah sorry I realized after the fact that I miscalculated. Yes, at 450 M shares a market cap of $10B is $22 a share.
So just imagine if the P3 is positive, with manufacturing capabilities, and a huge upside with DCVax Direct, could easily see $30 B market cap evaluation, ~$70 a share!!!
Depends on the blinded data. If the median OS from the blinded data comes in at >=22 months, I think that will and could be a game changer. I actually think it will come in close to 24 months.
Anything above 22 months will attract the eye of wall street investors, and that in a self could be huge. With KITE & JUNO already cashing in on the Immunotherapy excitement, and with this being soooooo undersold, (even with the diluted shares), it could easily push this over $1.
With 450 Million shares (assuming all warrants, all shares, everything), a $10B market cap (where KITE & JUNO were bought out at), gives a share price of $4
Someone at the SHORTS desk left to go for a long bathroom break, came back on time to sell off ~ 250K shares to drop it back down to 0.29. However, constant buying volume seems to be pressuring it back up.
Ex, okay 1 - Cognate is a private company, so them giving shares of another company to pay them off, wouldn't be recorded anywhere, unless the number of shares were enough to consider it an "inside investor" (cant remember the %)
Secondly, all of the NWBO stock provided to Cognate, was transferrable, and non-sellable, until a specific time period elapsed, meaning, over the last 2 - 3 years, any stock provided to them, LOST its monetary value on the open market. So even if cognate "gave" NWBO shares for debt owed to them, they didn't get the value that the shares were originally valued at.
And lastly, I think you are thinking of NWBO whom gave Cognate millions of shares for debt and services rendered. If you think Cognate is making millions off this, well that surely seems incorrect. If anything, they are on the losing side. Providing services and manufacturing vaccines and getting little cash, and a whole bunch of paper shares, valued at ~0.20 cents each, which they cant or wont sell. And so really they only cash in if the trial is positive and the share price goes up significantly.
You don't know much obviously.
What "FACTS" do you have that the trial has failed? I have crunched the numbers so far, and it would take worse results from SOC typically results for the PFS results to fail.
Go and learn some math.
The value of KITE fell significantly as well prior to them getting bought out. IT DOESNT MATTER WHAT THE VALUE IS UNTIL AFTER THE P3 RESULTS.
And if the trial had already failed, and the DMC did recommend stopping the trial for futility, but NWBO kept it going, L Powers, as well as the whole Board of Directors could be liable and sued by thousands of share holders. So I doubt that is the case.
BUT GOOD TRY!!!
Ummm, SERIOUSLY EXWANNABE!!!!
"Both of these would have otherwise used real cash. So they used shares in lieu of cash. That is monetizing the shares"
No, they wouldn't have used money in lieu of cash. If they are giving employee stock options, THE WHOLE POINT IS TO GIVE EMPLOYEES AN INCENTIVE TO KEEP SHARES OF A COMPANY AND DO GOOD WORK SO THEY CAN SELL THEM FOR A HUGE PROFIT IN THE END.
And honestly, I have NEVER heard of a company giving their employees stock from another company as an employee stock option. Interested in where you read that.
NONETHELESS, you have just proven that COGNATE HASNT SOLD SHARES IN THE OPEN MARKET AND THEREFORE HASNT CASHED IN!!!
Not sure what world would a company want to provide services or a products for "pieces of paper" or shares of a company, and not sell them, and that is considered a "Monetizing Scenario".
Pleas provide proof. If you are speaking about in 2015, those were part of options "use them or lose them", so they sold shares at ~$4 - $5 when the share values on the market ~ June 30, 2015, was actually double that ~ $8 - $9 a share.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/nwbo/insideractions
But please do show us where they have sold shares on the open market.
To date cognate hasn't sold ANY shares, so there is no getting any money from them. It shows Cognate showing share sale numerous years ago, however that was Cognate triggering their options, so to date, Cognate hasn't sold any shares.
I have been on here a long time, and have never seen any rumor listed in the investor wire, or anything like that before. Other than someone just making an opinion out loud on one of these investor boards.
Its interesting to think that could be why the recent interest in the share buy up. Someone, somewhere knows something. And you can still see the shorts trying to battle back against the price creeping.
How's that? How many Phase 3 trials does KITE have?
With positive trial news on DCVax-L, and therefore a positive light shining on the possibilities of DCVax Direct, I am thinking $11B market cap is a steal of a deal.
DCVax-L itself could bring in revenue of ~$2 - $4B a year, include Direct, and you could see over ten times that.
So IMHO, $11B buyout is a great deal.
I can’t see it being $3 -$4 a share though. At a $11B buyout (Kite’s buyout by Gilead), and ~450M share volume (including warrants) that’s more like $25 a share. And if trial results are positive, it might be larger than $11B!
https://investorwire.blogspot.com/2017/12/rumors-and-predictions-roche-bod-has.html
Are people seeing the Roche BOD rumor of buying out NWBO?
I stated there was no criminal charges brought by SEC. Companies violate SEC rules and regulations all the time, mostly small ones that are done mistakenly.
And you should write more clearly, saying the NASDAQ had issue with NWBO governance, and NASDAQ had issue with 2 specific events regarding how shares were issued under the governance rule means TWO TOTALLY DIFFERENT THINGS!
You stated the NASDAQ had issues with NWBO's governance. When actuality, it was two specific share situations revolving around issuing warrants to Cognate and an outside investor. HOWEVER, the OTC DOESN'T have issue with this type of issuance, it is solely a regulation of the NASDAQ, and it was how NWBO issued warrants and shares when raising capital and investment funds in the past. SO ITS NOT LIKE THEY DECIDED TO DO THIS ALL OF A SUDDEN, AND IT ISNT AGAINTS SEC REGULATIONS.
But of course, you are using that to SPIN the idea that NWBO has been doing criminal activity. Again, the NASDAQ didn't have issue with NWBO's Governance, they had issue with 2 specific share/warrant issuing cases.
Secondly, AGAIN, SEC has never formally provided any criminal charges. But go ahead, keep spinning the truth.
Okay, so when did I ever say or confirm that they were presenting without a doubt.
Like I said, to me this looks like a place holder for Alton to present, however allows them to provide a press release prior to this to officially define publically what the presentation is about.
That doesn't mean it is a for sure thing. All I take stock in it, is that hopefully there will be some trial news in the next 2 or 3 weeks.
As we have seen, NWBO is not good at scheduling, or estimating time frames, and that I will agree with any short on. So by no means does that mean this will be the one, it may need to be a conference in January. Hopefully not.
OMG!! Look at what you wrote. TALK ABOUT SPINNING THE TRUTH!!!
1) The NASDAQ kicked them out for bad governance.
No, they (as in NWBO NOT NASDAQ) removed themselves, because the NASDAQ disagreed with how one of their warrant placements took place. And this was a warrant placement that happened just after they moved onto the NASDAQ. IT HAD NOTHING TO DO WITH GOVERNANCE. Wow! Now that is funny and a picture perfect example of SHORTS SPINNING THE TRUTH!!
2) THERE IS NO CRIMINAL INVESTIGATION FROM SEC OR FBI. The SEC issues warnings and has thousands of financial investigations with companies all the time, and to say that is your basis for their "criminal activity" is laughable.
Great way to use Facts (OR LACK THEREOF)!!!
Flipper,
They removed his name from the final brochure, and have left it as "Presentation To Be Announced". IMHO this is a place holder for NWBO. It is also listed under the Dendritic cell based immunotherapy section.
However, since they are unable to release what the presentation is about, if it truly is trial results, without first releasing a press release regarding trial results, IMHO, this is a place holder so that once a press release has been made, they are able to then confirm the presentation, as well as time and date. What is obvious is that early on, NWBO has been planning on having Alton Boyton present, and they were probably scheduling on receiving finalized results around this time.
I think that this is something to watch for. I wouldn't be surprised if we get a trial results summary press release in the next several weeks coming up to Dec 6th.
Funny how no matter what NWBO releases, it is spun to a negative, or twisted to some "Short" advantage. I have never seen so much emotionally charged opinions on the future of a stock.
For a company that has been accused numerous times of being "suspect", and as "Criminals", we sure haven't seen any criminal charges or action against them, by the SEC nor the FBI.
YEs one could start numerous debates on all sorts of news, like reasons for screening halts, silence regarding company news, etc....
Recent history? Do you mean the one conference SITC that they canceled? Funny how that could coincide with corporate silence around a trials data lock.
We wont know until the presentation will we.
500/1 payout if results are positive. If Alton Boynton is presenting, I would lean towards positive results. If it were LP or MB, then I wouldn't lean towards positive or negative. Actually, if it was Marnix presenting, then I would lean towards negative results.
Anyways, I am betting there will be a media release of the trial results, and then at the end of the release it will state Alton Boynton, the founder will be presenting the trial results on Dec 6 @ 11:45, etc...
I am betting the release will occur days prior to the presentation.
I just saw that as well. I think what this means is that, since no one can measure or how long the statistical analysis will take place to finalize the results, they will probably be waiting until closer to the conference to confirm AB will be speaking, so that the results are actually available for him to present.
Also, it may be the fact that they can not come out and say; Alton Boynton will be presenting P3 Trial results without everyone calling foul! And without some official news release and so they are probably waiting for that news release to occur, and then stating that AB will be presenting the results in full detail at the conference!
So suffice to say, they have earmarked NWBO a spot at 11:45 on Dec. 6th.
It's easy proving the negative posts wrong. Most of the posters do not do their due diligence, and rely heavily on their opinion or "conspiracy theories" rather than "facts".
If the L.Powers and NWBO conspiracy theories were actually true, then that would be great for longs, because NWBO would somehow fix the data to be positive, and pull a Bre-X.
When data lock occurs, and the results are analyzed, there will be early evidence of what the statistical outcome will be, obviously this has to be scrubbed, and cleaned appropriately, and then finalized, before it can be "official". And yes at times, the results may differ from the initial, unscrubbed results, however this would be rare. That said, I am sure they would be able to schedule a presentation 2 - 3 weeks ahead of time, once NWBO knew that the finalized analysis should only be 1 - 2 weeks away.
I would conjecture that either results will be provided at this presentation, or the overall results of the trial will be released a week or so prior to this event, and the AB, the Founder would present the trial data in more detail.
I also lean toward positive results, rather than negative, in that, the company probably wouldn't make Alton present these results, but rather Bosch or Powers.
Most warrants are not shortable, and the same goes for NWBOW, so no these are not shorts covering. If that was the case, there would be much more daily volume, and if they were to wait until this late, they could end up short squeezing themselves.
Whomever has purchased ~140,000 warrants in the last couple days.
> 135K Warrants (NWBOW) have been purchased in the last several days, which is more than all the volume of warrants sold since Feb 2017 when a NWBOW warrant was still 0.10 cents a share. The reason for the low warrant volume hasn't been due to an increase in sell volume, but rather a void of anyone buying since NWBO common shares were less than $1. Someone is definitely interested in buying up the warrants, and I wonder if there is some insider information floating around there.
Actually its probably sooner, more like Dec 5th, as you need to execute the purchase prior to Dec 12th, Sorry that was a typo.
Warrants vs. Common - You don't have to exercise the warrants to make a profit.
Actually, its not $8.55 , it's $8.34, which would give you ~$49,100.00 profit from 15,000 warrants or ~$49,040 profit from common shares.
HOWEVER, HERE IS THE TWIST; THE ONLY WAY NWBO SHARES OR NWBOW WARRANTS ZOOM PAST $5 A SHARE BEFORE DEC 17th, 2017, IS IF PHASE 3 TRIAL IS POSITIVE.
SOOOOOO............
If that would be the case, I AM GUARANTEEING THAT THE SHARE PRICE WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN $15 A SHARE LET ALONE $8.50 A SHARE>
Its taking the chance that the results will be issued prior to Dec 17th, and if it is, the reward could be much greater.
Yes, so a volume of nearly 5 M shares will be reduced. There has also been numerous other privately secured warrants that have or will be expiring as well. It would be interesting to actually to a head count of all the expiring warrants to see how the volume is reduced. If I recall, warrants expiring in the early summer where pushed to late summer (~August) and would have sinced expired, and were probably not exercised.
The warrant have an exercise price of ~$4 I believe, so anything above $4 would be good for the warrants. However, if the warrants expire, Dec 17, then that also means the share volume will drop significantly. Don't know how many off the top, but if anything, it would or should (with positive trial results of course), affect the share price, as it would drop the market cap.