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Not a chance. Stock is a scam
Yep, and on the board as well
I am also waiting for another dip, NGL has been known to sell off after div exp, so it may have to wait until then. Freed up $25K just so I could jump on a decent pullback. Still happily siting on 20k shares.
Same here, got scared and did not pull the trigger.
Remarkable is a good word. Any thoughts, awful quiet.
I wonder what the folks at SA are going to say
Money, Money, Money. NGL making us money,
Yeah, tough break, for anyone buying at the top. Maybe UTX will get some upgrades with the earnings beat and it can get back to the september price. Doubtful it will hit $140 in 2019 but you never know.
.39 division just announced. good luck to us all. OMW to Amsterdam. will check boards when possible
crazy, one minute it is trading strong against the market, the next weak.
It wasn't a guess, it was a prediction based upon TA analysis. I had said I thought we would pullback a bit after a close under $11, which happened the next day, with follow up days trading down to $10,40 or so. We went from $11.15 to 10.40.
I believe our last close was $11.35 and I think we will pullback again. People are welcome to ignore what I say or they can disagree and and their own recommendations, thoughts and ideas.
Where do you see NGL going short and long term?
Well done Pete, glad to see people adding shares. I plan on adding, just a different approach. I freed up some cash today and because I am convinced we have a solid chance of pull back, I will wait. Both the market and oil were up big and while NGL gain, it did not seem as robust as it has been when taking into consideration the nice bump in oil/Dow. This was also reflected in the option pricing which does not reflect the increase in option pricing I would expect when considering how much NGL has moved up. The correlation between option price and stock is something I watch very closely.
Again, I am not trying to persuade anyone to follow my lead, as a matter of fact, I prefer it when people dont so I do not feel responsible if it does not work out. I like to post more just to plant a flag and show people what I am doing. I also like to get other peoples input/thoughts/ideas.
The reality is, if oil is up big again or the dow rises 300 points, NGL may pick up another .20 or if NGL comes out with positive news, it could also rise. Heck, a trade deal with China could push us higher, the end of the shutdown, a cut in oil production, analyst upgrade coming out of the UBS conference, many things. I just think that the chances are better for a pullback than for a continued and sustained stock price increase, especially without any kind of catalyst.
Not sure if people heard about the rig count drop, here is the link
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Oil-Gas-Rig-Count-Plummets-As-Oil-Prices-Surge.html
I think everyone understands what they are doing. I applaud all of those that bought when NGL pulled back a few weeks ago. Very savvy play.
Sometimes a stock pulls back a bit in order to get a running start. As an example, we went from $9.01 to currently $11.40 in 3 weeks.
Loving it. I may add a bit if it pulls back and I cannot find anything else. You have my email if any other stocks hit your radar.
I am taking a similar approach but with options. Because option trades are much thinner in volume, I wont post the trade ahead of time but it will be close to this. If we drop to mid/low $10's, I will sell Put options. If we pop above mid $11's, I will sell covered calls. Now if for some reason we get a bigger than expected pullback and it is NOT news or issue driven, I will buy more stock.
I really appreciate that. Thank you.
My goal is not to provide trading advice but to share information that our small community can find helpful. My relationship with some goes back several years. I do not like when pullbacks in price are used by some as an opportunity to slam NGL and cause undue anxiety for stock holders. Because I dont like it and feel a sense of community, I wanted to try and just give a heads up of possible pullbacks.
What I post is free and generally in life you get what you pay for. So take anything I post as my two cents only and understand the intent but dont use it as trading advice.
Texaco
Congratulations to you, the other longs. Also congratulations to the Sears employees, their families and local communities with sears stores. I hope you all make a ton of money. Very satisfying to see the negative element slink away. It takes a certain kind of person to wish ill to 50,000 employees. I could go on but you get it.
The reason I call my shot and post it, is so it can be discussed. I already know my opinion but I like others to share theirs. You are correct that TA is all about history and yes, if NGL comes out tomorrow and raises the div or oil is up $2, it will change the scenario.
What I posted today was the same as comments as last week, using the same data points and history, combination of RSI and Willaims. When I look at the TA, I always use the specific stock history, not general market history. Last week I said we would fail at $11. I also repeatedly said I thought we would pull back. The day I said we would fail $11, we closed $11.15. The next day, we did fail $11 and over the course of a couple of trading days, we went from $11.15 to to intra-day low of 10.35 or so and a low close of $10.45.
I do not use TA for day or any kind of swing trading, I use it for big signals that may only happen monthly or qtrly. Signals so strong that if you were to go to your trading platform (I use Etrade & TD) and do a 3/6 or 9 month chart the correlation of Willaims (oversold -20) + RSI above 50/60 and a pullback are clear. The good thing is, it take only a minute for anyone to look at this. Sometimes the pullback is quick and shallow, other times deep and long but a pullback is consistently there.
I do not put stuff like this out there to pretend I am smarter than anyone or some big TA person, I am not. I do it so my fellow longs have a possible heads up of short term trading patters.
The NGL folks presenting at the UBS one on one conference must be saying things that the money folks like.
I am also hoping/anticipating the January effect, that is why I speculated that by the end of the month, we would pullback and then rise, ending higher than we are today.
I disregard moves when volume is below half. With that said, it hints at a lack of sellers, which is good but does nothing to address being overbought.
My 2 cents
Good one.
My best advise is to never listen to me. My second best piece of advise is to accept that the possibility exists that we pullback and be prepared with dry powder and to ignore shorts that wait for a stock to fall and start crying "The sky is falling".
Good to hear
Not sure why you are telling me this but thanks. Your stock is down 20% in the last year and is still struggling. Last week it was downgraded to underperform/sell. Insiders are selling for a reason.
Its pretty easy to make money in the market when it goes from 17,500 to 25,000. Much harder when the market stays flat or drops.
A little quiet today. Let NGL consolidate a bit, by my charts still overbought, still expecting a close under $11 and a small pullback in the before we go and stay above $11. This is not me being negative, I am actually more positive about NGL than ever before. Wont be shocked to see us at or a bit below $10.50 at some point soon but expect us to trade above $11 by the close of January.
Again, I am just taking a moment to put my thoughts, ideas, speculations and guesses out there. I am often wrong so I will repeat, do not listen or trade on anything I say. I am not the type of person who posts after the fact about how I got a stock at the low of the day or some stuff.
If we drop more than expected to $10.00 to 10.25 I will sell some more put options. Those worked out well for me. If we pop to $11.50 or so fairly soon, I will sell covered calls, which has also been a decent play for me.
This has been a great shorting opportunity. Downgrades and insider selling. Lots of headwinds
Bar1080,
I just wanted to respond to your post. I am sure a respected investor like yourself knows the number of jobs saved is actually a VERY low estimate. When "jobs saved" is being reported, they are reporting on employees and not the many, many collateral jobs such as seasonal/temporary, contractors, vendors and a host of others.
Jobs does not even take into effect the impact to the local economies where a story closing can have a huge negative impact. I do not own Sears stock but I am thrilled for stock holders, employees, US economy and everyone and thing affected by what this reprieve offers. It is inconceivable to me that anyone with a shred of humanity is not happy about this. I am sure you agree. With that said, shorts may/will get hurt but they went into the situation with their eyes open.
GOOD LUCK TO SEARS
I knew this was going to happen. I am the smartest guy around, bar none. I will continue to post after events happen and tell you how I knew what was going to happen.
I do not own SHLDQ but thrilled that many jobs will be saved. I hope the people who had the courage to go long SHLDQ make a boat load.
Good luck to you fine folks
I knew Sears was going to go bankrupt.
Of course I like to wait for a stock to get hit hard and then post about how I knew it was going to happen. Man am I smart. As a matter of fact, I think I will post 10 to 15 times a day and tell you about the things that already happened, how smart I am and how I have more invested (in good stocks) than anyone else. Of course on the good stocks I own, I only post about those after they have moved up.
If sears does turnaround and save those 50,000 jobs, and all of you fine folk make the money you deserve, I will stop posting. I will find another stock that has been hit hard and post there, telling those fine folks how smart I am.
Good luck to all longs.
First off Jugs, I just wanted to say I hope you are feeling better. Second, I think the longs on the board agree that an up move on light volume is great but not something to take to the bank. But lets be clear, NGL is getting eyes on it and I think investors are liking what they see. Two weeks ago, we had short interest of 6.5% that either has been or will need to be covered. I suspect some but not all has. Do we close above 11, if so, will we stay above, who knows. If I had to guess, I would say $11 wont hold in the very, very short term but that is only a guess and not a guess I would trade on. I am holding. If we pop to $11.50, I will sell some $12.50 calls, if we pullback a bit, I will sell $10. Puts.
Our ride is not over, we will have up and downs but steady is the course. One indicator that I like to watch with NGL is when the shorts come out. Happened 3 weeks ago and pretty much every time we pullback hard. Embrace the shorts that show up out of nowhere to pile on because these are the folks who show us where the bottom is. Thank them, love them because as soon as the price starts to recover, they go away.
That was a good one.
NGL to the moon
THanks. Thanks to Jugs as well, got the email. Exciting to see the debt reduction continuing. Will put them in a better position for stock repurchase.
Sounds exciting but I think I am missing something, not seeing the post.
I did very well. For the most part, it is about setting expectations. We went from a close of $9.01 to a close of $11.15 in two weeks, if you did that over a year, most people would be happy. You never go straight up and a small pullback is not only expected but necessary in order to give the move up a solid foundation.
Maybe we go down to 10.15, who knows but earnings are getting close and the closer we get, the more upward pressure we will see.
For the most part, that is the same approach I use. I pick stocks based upon fundamentals but use TA to determine trade timing. Instead of buying and selling out of the stock based upon TA, I buy sell covered calls or sell Puts when very/strong indicators exist. This has been effective for me and I do not face the tax issues with short term trading stock.
Just to clarify, I cannot and do not use TA for day trading. I use technical indicators that are used to identify extreme conditions. As an example, I look for Williams spike to be -80 (overbought) and RSI to be above 50. In the last 6 months, this has only happened 7 times and each time the stock pulled back. Out of those 7 times, our biggest williams spike and RSI level was the latest one, formed over the last week.
One other point of clarification, these technical levels are stock specific so it would be a mistake to use those same RSI/Willaim levels for other stocks without verification.