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$SGYP Data release end of April
It is just around the corner. Either end of next week or the last week of April. Either way, it is recovering very nicely since under $4.00 drop yesterday.
It's safety profile has been proven to be much superior over IRWD's Linzess. And SGYP owns 100% of it!
$IDRA Bounce?
Looks like a sustained premarket pop on that volume. Let's see where it goes on market open. Thinking about closing all position just for pennies loss.
$IBB Weekly 200MA
It is sitting or trying sit on that weekly 200MA. I see next semi-support at $200 flat, but let's see if we get that reversal this week off the MA.
$IDRA Entered When $3.00 Stops Triggered
Definitely a good swing opportunity.
$MNKD Price
Odds are, it will continue to creep under without volume. The new FDA decision date is too far ahead. And remember that being over $2 billion in market cap, and the fact that this is heavily manipulated stock to begin with, it does bode well for short term bounce.
And oh not to mention IBB is providing no support at all.
Remember ARNA?
$NEPT Very Strong Holding. Up +5.44%
Good to see this holding very strong. Should be a good swing into $3.00 to fill that gap.
Congrats $heff you have 4000 + 1 followers!
Keep up the good DD and I also appreciate others here posting DDs and links. Let's get IBB to rebound!
$GTXI Missed that huge raid buy in time just last minute.
Literally was only 5 seconds away from one button.
Some thoughts on where it is headed?
ADMP I closed out
With 10 cent loss yesterday morning. I couldn't get a grasp on true nature of the selling blocks and most likely will stay away for awhile. Bid-ask spread like this is engineered to prevent retailers from profiting. Until then, on the sidelines.
$ADMP This is so low volume that anyone who wants to pick up major shares have to trigger stop losses.
Do you think this is how someone is accumulating? I am seeing some serious volumes on the way down. Perhaps its the retailers selling and the other say buying?
$ADMP Thank you for the update & DD
That was a solid DD with much information for us. I will keep looking at it through the weekend.
Meanwhile, it looks like one specific firm or a few is straight up selling out shares. I took advantage of the "raid" and entered at $5.81.
I will try to share some more details as well when I can, but wanted to say thank you for the DD update.
$SYN Entry
I have been watching this for an entry (End of April catalyst).
I am rather being conservative with my entry, I am only consider under $2.20. $2.00 should be strong support.
The run up came too soon, and most likely bear sentiment will govern until catalyst.
$NEPT New SA Article (link) - Strong Premarket
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2116843-can-krill-oil-nurse-nestles-slowing-growth
Looks like it was posted on the Nestle section to attract more readers. Though most of it is very speculative, any press is good press for the company at this point.
April 7th is the expected date to fully resume factory activities!
$SGYP & $NEPT - Entered
$SGYP: Data release early April. Proven superior safety profile over Ironwood's Lizness. Ironwood only owns ~40% sales for Lizness. SGYP owns 100% of its product sales.
IRWD is at $1.5 billion market cap. IMO, SGYP position in $470 million can climb to $650~$700 million after data release, bull recovery of biotech NBI/IBB.
$NEPT: Some dead costs from legal issue is resolved. Factory be up and running in April. There were some lost revenue due to fire in the factory. Partnership with Chinese firm for about half of sales.
Looking for $170-$180 market cap target. Pretty good pull back to near $2.40 levels. Will do further DD and share more thoughts and facts.
Welcome back!
Market as a whole was indecision this week, but I think IBB/NBI as a whole has had its correction.
Very excited for next week! Hope you are recharged from Hawaii and ready to bounce!
$SGYP... Very attractive at $5.00 levels
Remember that the side effect wise, it is PROVEN significantly safer that the Ironwood's Linzess.
Very attractive play after a good pull back. Very nice pick Sheff!
Thanks BlackHills
Your DDs definitely helped me with confidence. So thank you again for the good interaction!
I sold all at well above $5 levels, but you are right, this is definitely a great long term company, and I will definitely be keeping this close to the chest. I don't have too much funds as of late, so I am playing ones with more short term in mind. It's only Phase II data, so I do expect some settling and sell on the news. Especially with current very low short float.
Either way, kudos again to you for the darn solid DD!
Overnight hold of $3.73 -> $5.25 (+40%). Not bad at all!
$IDRA... POP! POSITIVE DATA
Looks like a standard 30% pop premarket!
Congrats!!! In at $3.73. Taking profit premarket as soon as 8am hits!
$NEPT Nice Strong Bounce
Definitely a huge upside here. New factory up and running in beginning of April is not a far even at all.
Solid pick!
EXAS... Halt Info (Link)
http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/Trader.aspx?id=Tradehalts
Check here for live update.
People are speculating afterhours. The meeting itself takes awhile!
$GTXI... Quick Question $heff
What are your thoughts? I saw $1.60 as a strong support, but it went right through it today. I am still holding because it's reallyyyy tempting not to see this point, but was the same since $1.75.
Just wondering if you have any thoughts about it. Thanks!
Biotechs Morning Actions
have been largely very mixed I think in the past couple days. Head fakes everywhere. Looks like IBB is really bound to recover at this correction levels. Looks like it is helping NASDAQ pull up.. finally..
It will be a LONGGG walk like someone else mentioned here, but we did get caught up in this pretty major correction, but I am still very much positive regarding the industry as a whole.
Let's see where we go the rest of the week!
$SGYP Looks Like Strong Recovery Off One Huge Sell
A huge sell order came in that triggered stops at $5.00 level.
It's been rebounding like a champion! Would love to add at these levels but some cash is tied up.
$IDRA
You got that right!
Back in at 3.78. Hell of an emotion today man.
SGYP needs to pick up. There was one huge sell that triggered stop losses!
$IDRA Reply
The point of selling was a bit shaky on my end, but I am planning on getting in sometime today. I guess I was betting on a bit lower entry potential today, since I don't think news will be out until Friday or Monday (just my thoughts).
Are you in IDRA right now? Hope I can join back quick with a good re-entry PPS. I think the science itself is more positive than not. I'm not betting on a 100%+ pop here, but anything decent 25-30% will do for my account.
$IDRA... Baker Bros. Related Filing (Link) & Reality
(Click on - "last capital raise" link in the article to download filing file. Then, search for "Baker" keywords)
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2074453-idera-a-compelling-biotech-pick-for-march
In 2013, in connection with our financings in May 2013 and september 2013, we issued and sold to Baker Brothers 5,865,000 shares of our common stock,warrants to purchase up to 20,316,327 shares of our common stock at an exercise price of $0.47 per share and pre-funded warrants to purchase up to 19,992,302 shares of our common stock at an exercise price of $0.01 per share. Under the terms of the warrants and pre-funded warrants issued to Baker
Brothers, Baker Brothers is not permitted to exercise such warrants to the extent that such exercise would result in Baker Brothers (and its affiliates) beneficially owning more than 4.99% of the number of shares of our common stock outstanding immediately after giving effect to the issuance of shares of common stock issuable upon exercise of such warrants. Baker Brothers has the right to increase this beneficial ownership limitation in its discretion on 61 days’ prior written notice to us, provided that in no event is Baker Brothers permitted to exercise such warrants to the extent that such exercise would result in Baker Brothers (and its affiliates) beneficially owning more than 19.99% of the number of shares of our common stock outstanding or the combined voting power of our securities outstanding immediately after giving effect to the issuance of shares of common stock issuable upon exercise of such warrants.
My thoughts & honest speculation:
The SA article was extremely misleading to claim that BB controls 42% of all shares. Because Pillard Investment Group actually owned more shared than BB, the company made sure in the contract to prevent BB or anyone else to own more than 4.9%. The existing company saw large two hedge funds as threat to their own ownership power and control. This means that BB MUST SELL existing common shares before they can exercise more warrants to convert options into common.
With warrant prices on the derivatives securities, each share is basically around $4.00 for BBs. This looks to me that when the company issued more offering, they did not want to deal with the public. So they sold (including "warrant rights") big chunks of cheap shares to BB and Pillard to ensure that enough capital would be received when needed.
And of course BB would be not so compliant with their limitation to 4.9% ownership agreement. So what can the company do to satisfy them? Especially when they have been selling away common shares (that they acquired for ~$4.00) like hot cakes after this filing & agreement? Give them a seat at the board.
So to me, if I read everything right, IDRA sold them shares and warrants to BB to ensure they had a backing of a firm with real capital, without dealing with the retail markets. The shares were sold for pretty cheap, in average price when including warrant prices. And since BB literally has access to 43% of common share worth of shares, as soon as exercisable date was reached (02/2014), they have been selling their common shares like hot cakes.
There will be even more downward pressure, as they try to convert more warrants into shares, but they must sell existing common shares before they convert! (4.9% agreement).
Things I have heard about BB's involvement has been very misleading and flat out questionable. Also, just because the data is positive in the first place, I do not see any reason why BB would suddenly join the board. Sounds more like a financial deal here, where BB could not own enough common share % to exercise real rights and voice in management, so management might have compromised in the middle to give them a seat at the board, so they can at least know and have some saying in the management.
Also with these prices and still high market cap, the best pop we can see is 25-30%. (Still have to complete P3...)
Why I am conservative with price pop after positive data:
1. Small current short float. So after the news, it would be a good reason and trend for increased short interest
2. Sell on the news - general trend of the industry. No discussion here.
3. So many people who bought since low, mid, high $6.00 are extremely exhausted, scared, and stressed, especially after today's raid. I think they are realistically looking for any profit, whether very miniscule or not. Also, when the Reason 2 is initiated and these people see price starting to decline, I suspect that there will be many who will panic and sell. These people again, do not want to deal with raids any more and would love to accept 10% loss over 45% loss they are accustomed to at this point. Just psychology.
4. The discussion has evolved around data release so much that prospect of the company has been concentrated from this press release. So I don't think there will be huge volume of people wanting to accumulate for long term investment. Just playing "around" the binary event.
Disclaimer: Yes I was super long, then I started questioning this serious bear raids. I sold with a loss. I did more research and now I am cautious. Not bearish, just "cautious" and rather neutral at this point.
$IDRA $3.99 Severe bear action today
I am tracing the number of actual common stocks Baker Bros own. And it looks like it has declined over the past few quarters by:
5.9 mil -> 3.2 mil (12/31/2013) -> 1.6 mil (03/10/2014)
Links:
(Shows the decrease 5.9 -> 3.2)
http://www.j3sg.com/Reports/Stock-Insider/Generate-Institution-Portfolio.php?institutionid=4698&DV=yes
(Shows the current standing position at 1.6 mil - 03/10/14)
http://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FileName=0001144204-14-015280%2Etxt&FilePath=%5C2014%5C03%5C12%5C&CoName=IDERA+PHARMACEUTICALS%2C+INC%2E&FormType=3&RcvdDate=3%2F12%2F2014&pdf=
Please let me know if my figures are wrong. But I pulled up the latest filing and the past ones to literally calculate per share basis. And I do not see anywhere that they increase common share position. And this is a pretty significant decrease in position.. over 2-3 quarterish.
It looks like the options they own are not actually a "purchase" and has no value as a derivatives securities. Strike at $5.86 and $6.06. Of course worth a fortune if the prices head north and they can exercise.
Any other thoughts? Something that I am missing? I just cut my loss mid down today. Not going to blindingly let it drag the account down. As I type this another major bear raid... I know theoretically "no one" should know the data results yet, but you know how it is.
Any other thoughts?
That was hard but I think right decision to make to free up capital for new plays as the biotechs rebound up from these levels.
I would definitely agree as well with taking positions for those with more near term catalysts. Often immediately before actual data or news release there are too frequent bear raids, but at least timing wise we would be able to be less swayed by the overall market.
Not to mention that following overall trend of NBI could also prove to be very profitable in the future, being perhaps conservative with going long when the industry may be due for a correction.
Looking forward to the end of week. $GTXI (bounce?), $IDRA (data release?) Keep it up $heff!
$GTXI... Favorable Analyst View
Quick news from Dow Jones wire showing GTXI under Most Attractive category from Factset data. Sure EPS doesn't matter for developmental pharma like this, but the news appears to have created a small volume gap up in the premarket right now, almost up 9%.
Let's see if this holds up at least 5.00%+ throughout the day. I think GTXI was due a quick pop regardless.
$heff - $IDRA?
Are you only watching this on the sidelines after the profit-taking, or do you think this may end up being a good entry given the binary risk?
It's having a really hard time trying to boost over $5 this morning. But I see that Baker Bros have options exercise with strike price at late $5 and early $6.
What is your stance with this play?
Baker Bros. Holdings List:
Here is a link that shows their holdings. Recent enough. (Current quarter filing)
They have $SGYP at $6.18, 2.6 mil shares. It's like looking at a list of IBB holding with top heavy firms excluded.
http://www.j3sg.com/Reports/Stock-Insider/Generate-Institution-Portfolio.php?institutionid=4698&DV=yes
$SGYP Aegis Increases Price Target to $28
Aegis Capital affirms Synergy Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Nasdaq: SGYP) at Buy and raises its price target from $25 up to $28 following recent Q4 results and IBS-C update.
(http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Synergy+Pharma+%28SGYP%29+IBS-C+Risk+Level+Low%2C+Outlook+Solid%3B+Aegis+Boosts+PT+to+%2428/9309959.html?si_client=st)
Overall, side effect risk of SGYP has been tremendously better than its rival approved Ironwood's LINZESS. (Diarrhea, stomach pain, dropping out of the study, etc). And If the efficacy data can show that if it is as good, it is enough to warranty a very promising FDA track. If better, I think $SGYP is definitely posed to perform better than $IRWD.
Synergy has a few more on its pipeline and its market cap at $560 million today compares very well against IRWD's $1.5 billion for potential upside.
Hey Bob,
All I was saying was that there will be much better opportunity to load up before it surpasses $7 mark. As in, patience in entry will payoff. This just didn't happen today, but it happens in general. And as in, it will not fly to the moon in the next few days for now reason.
The biotech index closed from highest to lowest on Friday, indication that the industry will be very week in the following trading day. This has been the case with the NASDAQ biotech index for the past few years. Again, was a better bet to wait than not.
I myself am looking to load up once I free up some positions after a quick rebound from today's levels. I am still doing DD, just to triple make sure I am not missing anything regarding on why the market has not "truly" realized the real value of the company. Maybe it is inefficiency, but more often than not there are real reasons. Until then, I have this on my primary watchlist.
Please do share with the group though if you find some new things not readily available. Would appreciate it.
$ADMP... Biotech downward risk still carried from last week. Told you $6.25 is coming before a run up.
Agreed $heff. Win some, lose some, but in times of "uncertainty," 50% entry is always a good idea to average down during times like this. I doubt the sell off in the industry will continue this week. I think the light is here to stay for a little while now.
Don't get too caught up with Baker Bros actions. Look at their filing for closed positions. They have TONS of past loss positions. People chased it after the data release under confidence of Baker Bros. I think It could come down to under $4.50, which makes a great swing opportunity.
Another extended day of NBI holding back NASDAQ. Not a good day again for the biotechs.
Hey $heff - $IBB $GTXI $ETRM $SYN $NAVB $IDRA $CYTK
I added $IBB on the way down today. I think the talk of "bubble" is the only plausible explanation the media can carry and so they have been pushing hard.
Regarding $GILD news regarding Congress inquiry on its high pricing, it definitely would not have been a sole reason for the -4%+ tanking of the index.
A coincidence that options expire today? Either way IMO, a short bounce will come to $IBB before heading further down for the industry as a whole.
$GTXI: I think the catalyst being end of April is still quite far away. Sure the market as a whole dragged the name down, but I think the entry timing could have been a bit too early. I can see how $1.75 is necessary before any bounce. Sure, 1~1.5 month is a good entry point for anticipated run up, but those I think apply to ones with solid volume. With GTXI, this is not the case(not enough).
$ETRM: I ended up selling for just a pennies loss. I have done some DD on the actual product, but I am extremely skeptical how the market will perceive the value, given that the market is already used to the medicine/pill oriented approach to weight loss (VVUS, ARNA) and how results have only been extremely disappointing. The actual effectiveness does not appear to be any better than Qsymia (VVUS) or Belviq (ARNA). I believe the anticipation run up is actually derived from the strength of the product, but again, I am skeptical on if the market will favor a marginally better device that you have to literally implant in your body.
$SYN: You mentioned profit taking when the stock had that rally beginning of the week. Sheff, what are your plans? Are you holding this until a time frame or a specific price range? I took the profits way too early. So the afterthought here is remaining to enter in a good price.
$NAVB: We can all agree that this is just a patience play moving in the $2.00 ~ $2.05 range. Need volume to have the price pick up.
$CYTK: Where a patience plays out. I have been entering in and out, but mostly without much profit. Overall, only a small gain, but I am getting tired of small bears that raid in the mornings and the afternoons.
$IDRA: Are you still watching this on the radar? The good set back after today could pose a good entry. I love how the stock has been trying to pull up after it lagged in the $5.60s and 70s. Do you have plans to re-enter?
It's great stuff you are doing on this board $heff. Definitely the discussions here provide large liquidity to small cap boards. I will try to post some kind of DD for SGYP this weekend.
Good luck to you and all! Hopefully we will see a strong bounce on Monday!
$ADMP.. I am not sure if it will hit $7.00 that fast. I have been doing DD and I am not sure what's up with a company with only 7 employees and a CEO with age of 70. I get that they had to reverse merger with a shell company (the CEO's old company) to be listed on NASDAQ.
What exactly are you looking for the very very short term as the catalyst that will launch this? I am rather looking for $6.30 level, though sure it may hit $7.00 with a strong market next week. Regardless, I am waiting here for now since I think there is more bet that it will come back down to $6.25, without anything immediate in its agenda.